DFS Alerts
Joel Embiid (back) will play Saturday
Embiid has officially been upgraded from questionable and will play in Saturday’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder despite continuing to deal with back tightness. Embiid was visibly bothered by his back in the first half of Thursday’s win, but he seemed to loosen up as the game went along and still managed to exceed his salary-based expectations in 35 minutes of action. There’s been no confirmation, but it’s unlikely Embiid will be subject to a minute restriction since the Sixers medical staff cleared him to play in the first place, and he also managed to complete his usual pregame workouts without any major setbacks. Assuming he’s a full-go, Embiid is in a tremendous position to a viable tournament option since he still leads the team with a 34.8% usage rate and is averaging 1.61 DraftKings and 1.61 FanDuel points per minute since mid-November when Jimmy Butler was acquired in the trade with Minnesota.
As reported by: TIm Bontemps via Twitter
Josh Richardson (illness) probable Saturday
Richardson has officially been listed as probable for Saturday’s matchup against the Chicago Bulls after missing Friday’s loss due to an illness that’s been circulating throughout the Heat locker room. In his likely return, he should reclaim his typical starting spot from Tyler Johnson, who was stellar from a fantasy perspective for his price tag in 35 minutes of action in his spot start. Miami is still without Goran Dragic after he underwent a procedure on his right knee, which has enabled Justise Winslow to continue serving as the de facto point guard in the starting unit, and he’s logged at least 30 minutes in nine of the last 13 games even with Johnson and Dwyane Wade competing for minutes behind him in the backcourt rotation. Over that span, Winslow leads the Heat starters with a 25.8% usage rate and is averaging 1.14 DraftKings and 1.13 FanDuel points per minute, keeping him firmly in consideration for all formats, even at an elevated price tag across the industry.
As reported by: Shandel Richardson via Twitter The Spot For A Punt Play
This has all the makings of a trap, but Pachulia has weaseled his way into the third core play spot with Andre Drummond officially out for the Pistons. I worry somewhat about how many minutes he will play after being heavily used last night, but he simply fits the value mold that we need alongside James Harden on this slate. He grabbed nine rebounds in 28 minutes last night after Drummond’s injury, and tonight’s matchup is a much more favorable one against an up tempo Kings squad. Again, I don’t feel great about this, and I understand the potential logic behind a GPP fade — but Pachulia deserves a spot here given the opportunity, price tag, and matchup.
Dewayne Dedmon (ankle) listed as available Saturday
Dedmon has been upgraded from probable on the latest version of the Hawks’ injury report and will be available to play in Saturday’s matchup against the Boston Celtics after missing two consecutive games due to a sprained left ankle, while John Collins and Trae Young remain probable with their respective ailments. Dedmon will more than likely displace Alex Len from the starting lineup after Len obliterated his salary-based expectations in 31 minutes in Tuesday’s win. Even with everyone outside of Kent Bazemore and Miles Plumlee on track to be available to play, all of the Hawks players can be relegated to just tournament consideration given the difficult spot versus a stingy Celtics defense. However, if looking for a player to target, Young does own a 32.1% usage rate (+3.4%) and is averaging 1.18 DraftKings and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute with Bazemore off the court this season.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Andre Drummond (concussion) listed out Saturday; Ish Smith (groin) listed as questionable
Drummond is in the concussion protocol and has been listed out on the most recent version of the Pistons’ injury report for Saturday’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings, while Ish Smith is listed as questionable with a right adductor tear. Stanley Johnson and Jon Leuer are listed as probable with their respective ailments as well, but they should be fully expected to play given the nature of the Pistons injury reporting of late. Pachulia ended up replacing Drummond to begin the second half of Friday’s win and was serviceable from a fantasy perspective in 28 minutes of action. However, given the matchup with Willie Cauley-Stein and Kings versatile frontcourt, Leuer is still a candidate to start alongside Blake Griffin at the center position this evening. Unsurprisingly, Griffin has thrived with Drummond off the court this season, as he owns a 36.8% usage rate (+5.4%) and is averaging 1.44 DraftKings and 1.40 FanDuel points per minute in this scenario.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Other tagged players: Ish Smith, Stanley Johnson, Jon Leuer Kawhi Leonard (rest) listed out Saturday
Leonard has been listed out on the most recent version of the Raptors’ injury report and won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies as part of his load management plan. This news is a bit odd considering he was rested for Thursday’s win as well, but it’s certainly possible that the team is looking to give him an extended stretch off since they don’t play another game until Tuesday evening. If that’s actually the case, Fred VanVleet will likely draw another start alongside Kyle Lowry in the backcourt following a serviceable fantasy outing in 31 minutes of action in his previous spot start. Unsurprisingly, Lowry and Serge Ibaka have been the main beneficiaries with Leonard, Anunoby, and Jonas Valanciunas off the court this season, as they each own at least a +4.0% usage rate differential and see a minimum of a +0.22 increase in their per minute fantasy production in this scenario.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Gordon Hayward (personal) out Saturday
Hayward did not travel with the team to Atlanta and has officially been ruled out of Saturday’s matchup against the Hawks due to personal reasons. Hayward has settled into a role in the mid-20s in terms of minutes of the bench with the Celtics now back at full strength, so his absence will open up additional playing time for Jaylen Brown in the second unit and possibly allow Semi Ojeleye to see nominal minutes behind Jayson Tatum and Marcus Morris at the forward positions. It would seem logical that Terry Rozier would be relied upon to absorb additional usage in the second unit sans Hayward, but that just hasn’t been the case to this point in the season. This means Brown should be the preferred Celtics bench option to target in tournament formats, as he leads the second unit with a 22.9% usage rate and is averaging 0.94 DraftKings and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute with Hayward off the court this season.
As reported by: Jay King via Twitter Solid Mid-Range Play
I really like Blake Griffin tonight, but I am also a realist and see that fitting Harden + Griffin together as the start to a cash game lineup is very difficult, at least given the news that we currently have. For what it’s worth, I will start a lot of GPP lineups with Griffin on the ones that I build that do not contain Harden. In any case, we need to look a little deeper for our second core play, and I will opt for Bobby Portis. This isn’t as much of a slam dunk on DraftKings given his elevated price over there, but I still think Portis is viable. Wendell Carter is going to be out for a while, and Portis should be given every opportunity to step up. While we haven’t seen much from him this year, we know from previous seasons that Portis is capable of being a very solid fantasy point per minute player, and the Bulls need his rebounding on the interior. They don’t have a ton of other bodies to contend with other big men, and Portis will absolutely be needed in a matchup against the Heat. The rebounding rate has been great over the last two games, and we can expect him to shoot it better than he has over the last two games.
On a Roll and Ready For Another Great Matchup
30. That is how many shot attempts James Harden is averaging per game this month (nine above his season average prior to January). 14. That is how many free throw attempts James Harden is averaging per game this month (three above his season average prior to January). 48.4%. That is his usage rate over the last two weeks. 71.2. That is how many fantasy points he is averaging per game on FanDuel since New Year’s Eve. 77.1. That is how many fantasy points he is averaging per game on DraftKings since New Year’s Eve. Oh, did I mention that he draws a matchup against the up tempo Lakers tonight? I simply don’t see how it’s possible to recommend fading Harden in cash games at this point. It simply doesn’t make sense to do it. Yes, the price tag is extremely high, but we are likely going to get some value plays that come out throughout the day thanks to injury news. Start your cash games with Harden, lock in your 65 point floor and 90 point ceiling, and move on from there. There’s just nothing else that can be said to magnify the numbers he is putting up on a nightly basis thanks to all of Houston’s injuries.
Dependent on Value
This slate is extremely difficult to write about because there is SO much pending value. There are two scenarios in which you would play Giannis in cash games 1) We get a ton of value which allows you to jam both Giannis and Harden into the same lineup. 2) We lose a lot of value which makes it too hard to jam Harden’s salary into your lineups. Giannis is a strong play independently but very clearly rates behind James Harden which makes him more of a secondary cash game option.
FanDuel Flexibility
Kyrie Irving is cooking and he has been doing so at extremely low ownership. Irving has racked up 65 points and 29 assists over the last two games in difficult matchups against the Raptors and the Grizzlies. Irving gets a much more favorable matchup on Saturday night against a Hawks defense that allows the fourth most points per 100 possessions (113) and second highest effective field goal percentage (54.7%). The biggest concern surrounding Irving is that his minutes won’t be pushed on the second leg of a back-to-back where the Celtics are 9-point favorites but if Irving does log mid-30’s minutes he’s a very strong play with high upside. Irving is mostly a cash option on FanDuel where there is enough salary flexibility to fit both him and Harden in your lineup. If fading Harden on DK, Giannis would be my spend as opposed to Kyrie.
Marc Gasol (back) questionable Saturday
Gasol has officially been listed as questionable for Saturday’s matchup against the Toronto Raptors due to a sore back, while Joakim Noah is currently away from the team tending to a personal matter and won’t be available to play in tonight’s contest. Noah hasn’t carved out much of a role in the Grizzlies rotation to this point in this season, logging between 11-14 minutes in each of the last six games, so his absence won’t have too much of an impact on the remaining members in the frontcourt. However, JaMychal Green and Jaren Jackson Jr. could see an uptick in playing time as the preferred frontcourt duo by head coach JB Bickerstaff when Gasol, assuming he’s cleared to play, is off the floor this evening. Since Ivan Rabb has mostly been relegated to garbage time minutes when he’s been active this season, Green and Jackson Jr. shouldn’t have much competition for those aforementioned backup center minutes, and each of them is currently averaging more than a fantasy point per minute on the year, while Jackson Jr. leads the pair with a 23.6% usage rate.
As reported by: Grizzlies PR via Twitter John Collins (illness) and Trae Young (illness) probable Saturday
Collins and Young have both been upgraded from questionable to probable for Saturday’s matchup against the Boston Celtics due to an illness that had forced them to miss Friday’s practice. Meanwhile, Dewayne Dedmon is also listed as probable and appears poised to return from a two-game absence because of a sprained left ankle, so he’ll more than likely displace Alex Len from the starting lineup after Len obliterated his salary-based expectations in 31 minutes in Tuesday’s win. Even with everyone outside of Kent Bazemore and Miles Plumlee on track to be available to play, all of the Hawks players can be relegated to just tournament consideration given the difficult spot versus a stingy Celtics defense. However, Young does own a 32.1% usage rate (+3.4%) and is averaging 1.18 DraftKings and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute with Bazemore off the court this season.
As reported by: Chris Vivlamore via Twitter Other tagged players: Trae Young Joakim Noah (personal) out Saturday
Noah is reportedly away from the team and has been ruled out of Saturday’s matchup against the Toronto Raptors due to personal reasons. Noah hasn’t carved out much of a role in the Grizzlies rotation to this point in this season, logging between 11-14 minutes in each of the last six games, so his absence won’t have too much of an impact on the remaining members in the frontcourt. However, JaMychal Green and Jaren Jackson Jr. could see an uptick in playing time as the preferred frontcourt duo by head coach JB Bickerstaff when Gasol is off the floor this evening. Since Ivan Rabb has mostly been relegated to garbage time minutes when he’s been active this season, Green and Jackson Jr. shouldn’t have much competition for those aforementioned backup center minutes, and each of them is currently averaging more than a fantasy point per minute on the year, while Jackson Jr. leads the pair with a 23.6% usage rate.
As reported by: David Cobb via Twitter Aaron Gordon (back) listed as questionable Saturday
Gordon has officially been listed as questionable for Saturday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks due to lower back tightness that forced him to exit and not return in the fourth quarter of Friday’s loss. Gordon has only missed two games all season, and in those contests, Jarell Martin and Jonathon Simmons each started one game in his place. However, the Magic’s rotation looks quite a bit different since then with Simmons seemingly out of the rotation after being on the receiving end of five consecutive DNP-CDs and Jonathan Isaac back healthy, which makes Wes Iwundu the likeliest candidate to enter the starting lineup at small forward if Gordon is ruled out later this evening. Another beneficiary of Gordon’s potential absence would be Terrance Ross, as he should see more time with the starting unit sans Gordon and owns a 27.2% usage rate (+2.8%) with an average of 0.98 DraftKings and 0.97 FanDuel points per minute with him off the court this season.
As reported by: Josh Robbins via Twitter