DFS Alerts

Top Play of the Night

We all know what Russell Westbrook is capable of on a nightly basis, and the good news is that it’s relatively easy to fit him into lineups tonight. There is plenty of value out there with teams like the Raptors and Bulls providing that on this slate. Westbrook has the potential to break a short slate with one of his massive triple doubles, and that kind of output is certainly more likely when the up tempo Lakers are the opponent. I will be prioritizing Westbrook across most of my builds this evening, and he is my favorite overall play.

Big Usage Bump

We have to consider some Raptors as great plays tonight with the news that Lowry and Leonard will be resting tonight. According to CourtIQ, the biggest direct beneficiary in terms of production is Serge Ibaka. He has logged a 5% usage bump and scores over eight additional fantasy points per 36 minutes with Lowry and Leonard off the floor this year. He will be looked to as a key piece in a favorable matchup against the Suns. Roll him out there in all formats.

Kawhi Leonard (rest), Kyle Lowry (rest), and OG Anunoby (personal) out Thursday

Leonard and Lowry have both officially been ruled out for Thursday’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns due to rest purposes on the second leg of the Raptors current back-to-back set, while OG Anunoby remains away from the team dealing with a personal matter and has now missed two consecutive games. With Leonard and Lowry unavailable, Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell are the likeliest candidates to enter the starting lineup for tonight’s contest, especially since Powell has taken on a much larger role in the rotation since returning from a lengthy injury absence and is averaging 21.4 minutes off the bench in the last nine games. There’s almost no actionable sample size with all of the inactive Toronto players off the court together this season, but with just Leonard, Lowry, and Jonas Valanciunas off the floor, VanVleet and Serge Ibaka have been the clear beneficiaries, as they each own at least a +5.5% usage rate differential and see a minimum of a +0.19 increase to their fantasy production per minute in this scenario.

NBA Injury Rundown - Thursday, 1/17

New York Knicks – Tim Hardaway Jr. (Q), Mitchell Robinson (Q), Enes Kanter (O), Kristaps Porzingis (O)

Phoenix Suns – Jamal Crawford (Q)

Toronto Raptors – Kawhi Leonard (TBD), OG Anunoby (TBD), C.J. Miles (TBD), Jonas Valanciunas (O)

Chicago Bulls – Wendell Carter Jr. (O), Denzel Valentine (O)

Denver Nuggets – Gary Harris (Q), Isaiah Thomas (O), Michael Porter Jr. (O), Jarred Vanderbilt (O)

Los Angeles Lakers – LeBron James (O), Rajon Rondo (O)

Oklahoma City Thunder – Alex Abrines (O), Nerlens Noel (O), Andre Roberson (O)

Damian Lillard (hand) available to play Wednesday; Maurice Harkless (knee) out

Lillard has officially been upgraded from questionable and will be available to play in Wednesday’s matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers despite dealing with a strained right hand, while Harkless will remain sidelined for the sixth time in the Trail Blazers’ last seven games. Jake Layman and Evan Turner have split the starts at small forward in the Trail Blazers previous five games, but Layman has started the last three and has been underwhelming from a fantasy perspective in an average of 22.5 minutes per contest. Turner hasn’t been particularly great fantasy purposes over that same time span either, but he still remains the preferred target over Layman for all formats given his significantly higher minute ceiling on a nightly basis, despite averaging just 25.2 minutes off the bench over the previous three contests.

Dennis Smith Jr. (illness) out Wednesday

Smith Jr. has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Wednesday’s matchup against the San Antonio Spurs due to an illness that has now forced him to miss four consecutive games, though head coach Rick Carlisle did reiterate that Smith Jr. would play when healthy despite trade speculations. The absence of Smith Jr. and J.J. Barea should create more playing time for Jalen Brunson as the de facto sixth man in the Mavericks’ rotation, and he logged a noteworthy 30 minutes off the bench in Sunday’s loss. The unavailability of Smith Jr. also opens the door for Maxi Kleber to start a fourth straight game at power forward following his three strong fantasy performances in an average of 30.1 minutes per start, which will enable Luka Doncic to continue serving as the primary facilitator in the offense. Doncic has thrived with both Smith Jr. and Barea off the court this season, as he owns a 31.7% usage rate (+2.5%) and is averaging 1.33 DraftKings and 1.28 FanDuel points per minute in this scenario.

Zaza Pachulia (leg) active Wednesday; Khyri Thomas inactive

Pachulia has officially been upgraded from questionable and is active for Wednesday’s matchup against the Orlando Magic after missing eight consecutive games with a right lower leg contusion, while Thomas is inactive after averaging 10.2 minutes off the bench in the Pistons previous three contests. Even though Pachulia is active, there’s been no confirmation he’ll actually resume his typical backup center role, especially since Jon Leuer has been more than serviceable filling in and provides a bit more lineup flexibility with his ability to absorb minutes at multiple positions. Either way, Pachulia has rarely seen enough playing time this season to become relevant in daily fantasy formats, so this is an easy situation to avoid on a full eight-game slate.

Eric Gordon (knee) will play Wednesday

Gordon has officially been upgraded from questionable and will play in Wednesday’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets after missing eight consecutive games due to a bruised right knee, while James Ennis was already ruled out with a left calf laceration. Gordon will reportedly be subject to a minute restriction of around 24 minutes in his return, but he’ll still take over the spot vacated by Danuel House in the starting lineup, as the Rockets failed to reach an agreement with him on a guaranteed contract prior to the expiration of his two-way contract. In a corresponding move, Houston signed James Nunnally to a 10-day contract this morning to temporarily take House’s place on the active roster, and he will be available to play off the bench with Brandon Knight already ruled out this evening. There’s not a tremendous sample size with Knight, Clint Capela, and Chris Paul off the court, but in that time, James Harden owns a ridiculous 53.4% usage rate (+10.6%) and is averaging a whopping 2.13 DraftKings and 2.06 FanDuel points per minute.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (groin) and Shabazz Napier (groin) available to play Wednesday

Hollis-Jefferson has officially been upgraded from questionable and will be available to play in Wednesday’s matchup against the Houston Rockets after missing seven consecutive games due to a strained right adductor, while Shabazz Napier will return from a one-game absence stemming from right hamstring tightness. Head coach Kenny Atkinson confirmed that Hollis-Jefferson will be subject to an unspecified minute restriction in his first game back, but it’s still possible he reclaims his typical starting power forward position right from the outset, which would send Treveon Graham back to the bench to resume a reserve role following a couple of dismal fantasy outings in an average of 28 minutes over the previous two games. Even so, Hollis-Jefferson’s playing time was all over the place prior to his extended injury hiatus, making this a clearly a situation to take a wait-and-see approach in daily fantasy formats.

Mo Bamba (foot) officially out Wednesday

Bamba has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Wednesday’s matchup against the Detroit Pistons due to a sore left foot that has now forced him to miss four consecutive games. Head coach Steve Clifford confirmed with reporters that Bamba is feeling better and progressing, but the team is taking the cautious approach and won’t rush him back from this injury. One of the reasons why there’s no sense of urgency to reintegrate Bamba back into the frontcourt rotation is the stellar play of Khem Birch off the bench behind Nikola Vucevic, as he has flashed significant fantasy upside in an average of just 15.9 minutes over the Magic’s last three games. However, Birch’s floor is frighteningly low and he isn’t a realistic fantasy option on a full eight-game slate like the one on tap this evening.

James Ennis (calf) listed out Wednesday

Ennis has been listed out on the most recent version of the Rockets’ injury report and won’t play in Wednesday’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets due to a left calf laceration, while Eric Gordon technically remains listed as questionable, but he’s reportedly likely to play after missing eight consecutive games due to a bruised right knee. There’s been no word if Gordon will be subject to a minute restriction in his potential return, so he’ll likely take over the spot vacated by Danuel House in the starting lineup, as the Rockets failed to reach an agreement with him on a guaranteed contract prior to the expiration of his two-way contract. In a corresponding move, Houston signed James Nunnally to a 10-day contract this morning to temporarily take House’s place on the active roster, and he is expected to be available to play off the bench with Brandon Knight already ruled out this evening. There’s not a tremendous sample size with Knight, Clint Capela, and Chris Paul off the court, but in that time, James Harden owns a ridiculous 53.4% usage rate (+10.6%) and is averaging a whopping 2.13 DraftKings and 2.06 FanDuel points per minute.

Marcus Smart (illness) and Aron Baynes (hand) officially available to play Wednesday

Smart has officially been upgraded from questionable and will be available to play in Wednesday’s matchup against the Toronto Raptors after missing one game due to an illness, while Baynes is also set to return from a 13-game absence stemming a fractured left hand. With Smart now active, Jaylen Brown will head back to the bench to resume a reserve role following a phenomenal fantasy outing in 32 minutes of action in Monday’s loss, and he’ll join Terry Rozier in the second unit after his own disappointing performance in 25 minutes in a spot for Kyrie Irving at point guard. Since the Celtics will be at full strength for the first time in a quite a while, Brown, Rozier, and the other tertiary members of the rotation will lose most of their viability in daily fantasy formats, while Irving is probably better reserved as a tournament option given the difficult spot versus a stingy Raptors defense.

Two Players to Consider With Potential Injury/Rest Situation

Damian Lillard has popped up on the injury report as Questionable for tonight’s game against Cleveland, and with Portland playing at home as double-digit favorites over the team with the worst record in the NBA, it makes sense for the team to be extra cautious with Lillard tonight. That makes C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic intriguing GPP options tonight. McCollum sees a 37.3% usage rate this season with Lillard off the court, a 9.7% increase over his normal rate. Jusuf Nurkic could also see more shots, although it’s worth noting that he sees a surprising 5.4% decrease in usage with Lillard off the court. Still, against a Cavs team that ranks 20th in rebounding differential on the year, Nurkic would be in plays as a GPP option.

I Never Feel Good About Playing This Guy

With the recent injuries to the Utah Jazz, Kyle Korver has moved into a sixth man role with this team and has played 32 and 25 minutes in the last two games. He has double-digit shot attempts in three of the last four games, and he’s went 9 for 19 from three-point range in the last two games. Korver is a low usage guy typically, but he has over 20% usage in three of the last four games. I never playing a guy like Korver, but I do like his price and current role.

Exceling In This Matchup This Season

The Orlando Magic have the lowest implied team total on the slate, and while that worries me, I still think D.J. Augustin is worth a look at his price. He’s averaging 38 fantasy points in two matchups against the Pistons this season, and like I keep saying on the podcast, the Pistons continue to struggle against point guards. They rank 26th in defensive efficiency and 26th in defensive real plus minus against point guards this season.