DFS Alerts
Dennis Smith Jr. (wrist) out Wednesday
Smith Jr. has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Wednesday’s matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans due to a sprained left wrist that has now forced him to miss nine of the Mavericks last 10 games, while Wesley Matthews remains listed as questionable with a sore right foot. Additionally, J.J. Barea and Dirk Nowitzki are technically still listed as probable, but given the nature of the Mavericks’ injury reporting, they are both fully expected to play. Jalen Brunson will likely continue starting at point guard in the absence of Smith Jr., but in the last four games with Barea active, he’s surpassed the 25-minute mark just once, which has significantly lowered his typically decent floor for cash game formats. Even though Brunson is still priced at an inexpensive price tag, there should be better value options available on a full 10-game slate this evening.
As reported by: Eddie Sefko via Twitter
Kyle Lowry (back) doubtful Wednesday; Serge Ibaka (knee) now probable
Lowry is officially doubtful for Wednesday’s matchup against the Miami Heat due to a back injury, while Ibaka is now listed as probable and appears likely to make his return from a three-game absence because of a swollen right knee. There’s been no word if Ibaka will be subject to a minute restriction in his first game back, so he should be expected to draw the start at center and see at least close to a normal minute allotment. Prior to his injury, Ibaka had logged at least 34 minutes in consecutive games without Jonas Valanciunas available, making it extremely likely that Greg Monroe would be relegated to a more limited role at the backup center after accruing at least 21 minutes in two of the last three games. As for Lowry’s likely absence, Fred VanVleet should start at point guard once again, and he’s mostly been a consistent source of value whenever a member of the Raptors’ starting frontcourt is sidelined with an injury.
As reported by: Blake Murphy via Twitter Other tagged players: Serge Ibaka Tyson Chandler (back) available to play Tuesday
Chandler has officially been upgraded from questionable and will be available to play in the Christmas Day matchup against the Golden State Warriors after missing one game due to back spasms, while JaVale McGee and Michael Beasley both remain sidelined with their respective ailments. Ivica Zubac has started the last two games at center in McGee’s absence, and he’s been stellar from a fantasy perspective in an average of 32.5 minutes per start. That minute floor might take a bit of a hit with Chandler presumably closer to full strength than he was in Friday’s win when he logged just 16 minutes off the bench. Still, Zubac has averaged 1.03 DraftKings and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute on the season, keeping him among the top value options on tonight’s slate, especially on FanDuel where he’s priced at the stone minimum for some unknown reason.
As reported by: Mark Medina via Twitter Wilson Chandler (quad) will start Tuesday
Chandler has officially been upgraded from questionable and will start in the Christmas Day matchup against the Boston Celtics after missing one game due to a bruised left quad. His return to the starting lineup will send Mike Muscala back to the bench to resume a reserve role following an underwhelming fantasy performance in just 18 minutes of action in his spot start. There’s been no word of a minute restriction for Chandler, so he’ll presumably resume his normal 28-30 minutes role as a starter in head coach Brett Brown’s rotation. However, as the fifth member of a starting lineup consisting of Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, and J.J. Redick, he continues to sport a minuscule 11.6% usage rate with an average of 0.67 DraftKings and 0.66 FanDuel points per minute and relegated him to nothing more than a tournament dart throw on an abbreviated five-game main slate.
As reported by: A. Sherrod Blakely via Twitter Alex Abrines (illness) out Tuesday
Abrines is an extremely late addition to the Thunder’s injury report and won’t play in the Christmas Day matchup against the Houston Rockets due to a stomach illness, while Terrance Ferguson wasn’t included on the injury report and will start this afternoon despite exiting Sunday’s loss early with an illness. Ferguson typically sees sporadic minutes as a low-usage starter alongside Russell Westbrook and Paul George in the starting unit, and he’s logged fewer than 19 minutes in four of his last five games with Thunder’s plethora of depth at the wing positions. However, in Abrines’ absence, Hamidou Diallo is likely to receive some additional run off the bench, and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot could absorb some nominal minutes as an end-of-the-rotation piece, though neither will likely see enough playing time to become viable for daily fantasy formats.
As reported by: Brett Dawson via Twitter Kevin Durant (ankle) will play Tuesday
Durant officially remains listed as probable on the Warriors’ injury report, but he will reportedly play in the Christmas Day matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers despite dealing with a sprained right ankle he tweaked during Sunday’s loss. This news was ultimately expected after Durant disclosed to reporters following that contest that he didn’t expect the injury to prevent him from suiting up for tonight’s contest. In the past 11 games since Stephen Curry returned from a lengthy injury absence, Durant has just a 30.7% usage rate and is averaging 1.35 DraftKings and 1.32 FanDuel points per minute, which makes him purely a tournament option on a five-game slate that has a plethora of other top-end superstars like Curry, LeBron James, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Joel Embiid.
As reported by: Anthony Slater via Twitter Allonzo Trier (hamstring) available to play Tuesday
Trier has officially been upgraded from probable and will be available to play in the Christmas Day matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks after missing seven consecutive games with a strained right hamstring, while Mitchell Robinson is slated to be sidelined for at least another week with a sprained right ankle. Prior to Trier’s extended absence, he had seen fewer than 18 minutes in three of his last four games, so he shouldn’t be expected to just step directly into a robust role in the rotation, especially with the Knicks suddenly-immense depth in the backcourt and wing positions. This depth has relegated Trey Burke and Mario Hezonja from the rotation entirely and each was a DNP-CD in Friday’s loss. Additionally, Trier will be battling for minutes with Frank Ntilikina in the second unit, which may lead to a reduction in playing time for him, Courtney Lee, and even Emmanuel Mudiay, who’s logged at least 30 minutes in each of the last six games with Trier sidelined.
As reported by: Ian Begley via Twitter NBA Injury Rundown - Christmas Day
Milwaukee Bucks – Ersan Ilyasova (O)
New York Knicks – Allonzo Trier (P), Mitchell Robinson (O), Kristaps Porzingis (O)
Oklahoma City Thunder – Andre Roberson (O)
Houston Rockets – Chris Paul (O), James Ennis (O), Carmelo Anthony (O)
Philadelphia 76ers – Wilson Chandler (Q), Markelle Fultz (O), Zhaire Smith (O), Justin Patton (O)
Boston Celtics – Aron Baynes (O)
Los Angeles Lakers – Tyson Chandler (Q), JaVale McGee (O), Michael Beasley (O)
Golden State Warriors- Kevin Durant (P), Jacob Evans (O), Damian Jones (O), DeMarcus Cousins (O)
Massive Upside For This Guard
Russell Westbrook needs no explanation as to why he’s an elite GPP play on Christmas Day. You all know his massive upside. The reason I’m tagging him is because most sites will list him as being in a hard matchup, but the DvP is driven by the fact Chris Paul typically guards him. With Paul out, we’re going to see some combination of James Harden or Eric Gordon trying to guard Westbrook, which may not end well. Don’t let the DvP numbers take you off Westbrook as this isn’t as daunting of a matchup for him.
Bombs Away
I hate playing one-dimensional players, but when the Rockets are using a condensed nine-man rotation and allowing Gerald Green to play 30+ minutes, he’s worth a look at his cheap price. With Chris Paul out several weeks and the Rockets unwilling to give Brandon Knight or Michael Carter-Williams extended playing time, that’s going to allow Gerald Green freedom to lead this second unit. Over his last three games, Green has played 28, 25 and 31 minutes, scoring double-digit points in two of those games. He doesn’t get many defensive stats, but he has shown no shyness about launching the ball whenever he feels like as evidenced by the fact he went 5-for-13 from beyond the arc last game. He’s an option to consider in GPPs if you’re trying to jam in the studs.
High Minute Floor
With James Ennis out the last six games, PJ Tucker has played at least 34 minutes in each of those six games. He’s scored at least 25 fantasy points in three straight games and is still priced as a really good value. Ennis is currently questionable and would really need to be ruled out for me to play Tucker on Christmas day. With very limited value options, I’m going to attack the value plays with a high minute floor.
Going Back To The Well
Gordon Hayward really burned me against the Bucks the other night, but I’m willing to go right back to the well on him in this matchup. He played 36 minutes against the Bucks but couldn’t hit a shot. I like his chances to play 30+ minutes in what should be a really close game against the 76ers. His price has come down on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, and I’m willing to play him in all formats at this price.
FanDuel Punt Option
With only five games and so many studs, I’m certainly going to take advantage of punting a player on FanDuel. Gerald Green is $3,600 on FanDuel and could play 25+ minutes in this game if Ennis ends up sitting another game. I love the punt potential with a high enough ceiling to replace someone if they end up having a bad game. Small forward is loaded on this slate, which makes me like pairing my punt play with a top end stud. I think Green is playable on DraftKings and FantasyDraft as well, but he’s still risky because of how scoring dependent he is.
Top Play of the Slate
James Harden has basically become an auto-play when Chris Paul is out of the lineup. If we run CourtIQ with Paul and Carmelo Anthony off the floor, we see that Harden has a 45% usage rate while averaging 1.84 FP/min. The icing on top of the cake is that he is facing the Thunder, the team that drafted him and eventually sided with Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Serge Ibaka. There are a number of superstars to choose from on Christmas, but Harden offers the highest floor/ceiling combination.
Superstar Priced at a Discount
Even though James Harden deserves to be considered the top overall play of the slate, he is priced at a premium. Dollar for dollar, Kevin Durant is right there with Harden as the top superstar. In his last four games against LeBron James, Durant has scored 59, 52, 47, and 66 fantasy points. There is always the chance that this game could turn into a blowout, but the spread is currently sitting at only nine points. As long as it stays competitive, Durant should play 36-38 minutes in an exploitable matchup.