DFS Alerts

Smooth GPP Upside

We all know that the upside is there for Julius Randle. It is simply always a question of his playing time. Luke Walton is notoriously unpredictable with minutes, but Randle is coming off a fantastic game on Sunday against the Knicks. These things tend to go in spurts with Randle, and perhaps he is trending toward another hot streak. Give him a long look as a risk/reward GPP option on a short slate that doesn’t feature a lot of quality plays at center.

Top Play of the Day

On a short slate, Aldridge is about as close to a must play as it gets. Kawhi Leonard is out. Pau Gasol is out. Manu Ginobili is out. The Cavs rank second from the bottom in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I will lock in Aldridge with confidence in all formats. He carries a solid 32% usage rate with those players off the floor and seems like a virtual lock for a double-double with upside in this game.

Playing In A Starting Role

After the last game, Parker had no objection to Murray moving into the starting spot for him. With Murray starting, I really love his floor and upside in this matchup tonight. He’s averaging .82 fantasy points per minute this season without Gasol, Manu, and Kawhi on the floor, while he’s playing next to LaMarcus Aldridge. Cleveland is a mess defensively right now, and Thomas isn’t going to help the lack of defense at the point.

Skal Labissiere has absolutely been crushing over the last week, and he’s in a great spot tonight against the Magic. He has played at least 27 minutes in three straight games, and has over 27 fantasy points in three of his last four. The Kings receive a nice pace bump tonight against the Magic, and their implied team total is 5.8 points higher than their season average. The Magic rank in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency this season, and they rank second to last in rebound rate.

John Wall (migraine) a game-time decision Monday

Wall was absent from shootaround this morning and will now be a game-time decision for tonight’s game against the Dallas Mavericks due to a migraine, according to Washington Wizards head coach Scott Brooks, after previously being expected to play, despite not feeling well. If Wall ends up being ruled out closer to tipoff, either Tomas Satoransky or Tim Frazier would draw the start at point guard, with Satoransky being the likelier candidate of the two given their current roles in the backcourt rotation. Unsurprisingly, with Wall off the court this season, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter have seen a significant boost in usage, as each own at least a +4.4% usage rate differential, while Porter sees his per minute production spike to 0.98 fantasy points on DraftKings and 0.99 on FanDuel in this scenario.

Devin Harris (concussion protocol) officially ruled out Monday

Harris has officially been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Washington Wizards after previously being considered “questionable at best” by Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlise due to the aforementioned head injury he sustained during Saturday’s loss. In his absence, there will be a sizable allotment of minutes available to be absorbed by J.J. Barea, Yogi Ferrell, and Dennis Smith Jr. in the guard rotation, and Barea is the best bet to see a quantifiable boost in fantasy value based on his past results with Harris sidelined this season, even though none of the aforementioned players are likely to log substantially more minutes than normal this evening.

Greg Monroe will start ahead of Tyson Chandler on Monday

Phoenix Suns interim head coach Jay Triano has finally announced his previously foreshadowed starting lineup change for tonight’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks and will start Greg Monroe ahead of Tyson Chandler at the center position. This lineup shakeup appears to only be a one-time occurrence, as Triano told reporters during his pregame media availability that he wanted to reward Monroe’s professionalism with a start against his former team and also give Chandler a chance to recover from some fatigue he had been experiencing recently. The Suns won’t officially deactivate Chandler, so he’s technically available to play, but he’ll almost certainly be a DNP-CD with Monroe likely absorbing all of his playing time. This is a great chance to buy low on Monroe in all daily fantasy formats, especially on FanDuel, since he is severely underpriced for his projected role in the rotation on Monday evening and has averaged 1.12 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.08 on FanDuel this season.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (foot) ruled out Monday; Treveon Graham will start

Kidd-Gilchrist has been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Sacramento Kings despite previously being listed as probable on the Charlotte Hornets’ injury report with a right axillary abscess. He’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by Treveon Graham, who has been locked into a mid-to-high-teens minutes role off the bench with the Hornets wing rotation fully healthy. Malik Monk should also find his way into the rotation but won’t likely won’t log enough playing time to become fantasy relevant. Since Kidd-Gilchrist is such a low-usage player, no remaining member of the starting unit sees a significant bump in usage with off the court, but Dwight Howard trails only Kemba Walker with a 24.9% usage rate and has averaged 1,24 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.26 on FanDuel in this scenario.

Fly Under The Radar With This Guy

With Dragic and Johnson ruled out for tonight’s game, I love Wayne Ellington as an under-the-radar play. Josh Richardson and Wayne Ellington receive big bumps without those two guys on the floor. Ellington receives a 4.1% usage bump, and he’s averaging .81 fantasy points per minute, which is a .05 increase. Miami’s ability to play great team defense usually keeps them in games, and if this matchup stays close, the Miami guys should crush value.

Extended Minutes Because Of Injury

With Jimmy Butler ruled out for tonight’s game, it’s hard not to play Bjelica at minimum salary. He played 26 minutes without Butler on Saturday, and had 20 fantasy points while shooting 33% from the field. He can rebound and add steals to his scoring, and that makes him a great value play for me tonight. The Clippers are allowing the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season.

Malcolm Brogdon (personal) will play Monday

Brogdon was officially back with the Milwaukee Bucks at shootaround this morning and will play in tonight’s game against the Phoenix Suns after missing one game due to personal reasons. His return will almost certainly displace Sterling Brown from the starting shooting guard spot and back to his normal reserve role after a solid fantasy performance in a massive 39 minutes of action in Brogdon and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absences Saturday evening. With Antetokounmpo still sitting out due to a sore knee, Tony Snell will presumably remain in the starting lineup at power forward. Snell is still typically an inefficient fantasy producer on a per minute basis, though he was more than serviceable in 38 minutes on Saturday, and he can be comfortably projected to see minutes in the mid-30s once again, leaving him in play as a punt option in tournaments. That said the main beneficiary with Antetokounmpo off the court this season has clearly been Khris Middleton, as he owns a massive +9.0% usage differential, equating to a 35.1% usage rate overall, and has averaged 1.17 fantasy points on DraftKings and 1.13 on Fanduel in this scenario as well.

Increased Production and Minutes Tonight

Without Kris Dunn tonight, Jerian Grant becomes a clear value option against the Pelicans. He has a bump in fantasy points per minute without Dunn on the floor, and receives a nice bump in minutes as well. He played 25 minutes on Saturday without Dunn, and I would expect to see 23-28 minutes tonight for him as well. The Bulls implied team total is 6.3 points higher than their season average tonight. That’s a big bump without there leading scorer in the lineup.

Jerryd Bayless (sore wrist) ruled out Monday

Bayless did not participate in shootaround this morning and has officially been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Memphis Grizzlies after previously being listed as questionable in the Philadelphia 76ers’ game notes with a sore left wrist that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games. He’ll join J.J. Redick and Markelle Fultz among the Sixers inactives, leaving them extremely thin at the guard positions for the second time in as many games. In Bayless and Redick’s absences, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot will most likely be called upon once again to start at the shooting guard spot and should continue to log minutes in the upper-20s given the Sixers current lack of guard depth. That said, T.J. McConnell remains the preferred Sixers guard to target in all formats, despite likely coming off the bench, and should still see the most court time alongside Ben Simmons in the backcourt and with the second unit. On top of that, he is a much more efficient fantasy producer on a per minute basis than Luwawu-Cabarrot and has averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute this season, making McConnell worth the higher price tag of the two across the industry. With the aforementioned players off the court, Joel Embiid owns a +4.5% usage rate differential, equating to a 39.9% usage rate overall, and he has averaged 1.62 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.59 on FanDuel in this scenario.

Goran Dragic (knee) and Tyler Johnson (ankle) ruled out Monday

Dragic has officially been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Houston Rockets after previously being listed as questionable on the Miami Heat’s injury report with a bruised right knee that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games, while Tyler Johnson will remain sidelined due to a sprained left ankle following a brief upgrade to questionable on the injury report. Miami is also already without Dion Waiters for the rest of the season due to ankle surgery, so now that Dragic and Johnson have been deemed unable to play, the Heat will be without their three primary ballhandlers and it will likely force Josh Richardson into the starting “point guard” role, even though Wayne Ellington will technically start in Dragic’s place. Justise Winslow has logged nominal minutes as the backup point guard with Johnson sidelined and should form a “point guard-by-committee” with Richardson, Ellington, and James Johnson with guards unavailable once again. The main beneficiary from a usage standpoint with Dragic, Johnson, and Waiters off the court this season has been Richardson, as he owns a +8.4% usage rate differential and has averaged 0.85 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 0.84 on FanDuel in a 156.0 minutes sample size.

Jimmy Butler (knee) and Jamal Crawford (toe) ruled out Monday

Butler has been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers due to a sore right knee that had forced him to be a late scratch for Saturday’s contest, while Jamal Crawford will also miss his second consecutive game with a sprained right great toe. In their absences, Nemanja Bjelica will draw the start at small forward for the second time in as many games after posting a solid fantasy performance in 26 minutes on Saturday night. This starting lineup change will slide Andrew Wiggins over to the shooting guard position, and he continues to be the most noteworthy beneficiary of Butler and Crawford’s absences, as he owns a +5.8% usage rate differential with them off the court this season and has averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 0.87 on FanDuel in this scenario.