DFS Alerts
Thriving Without Waiters
Dragic has been playing through some minor injuries for much of the season, but he seems as healthy now as he has all year. Dion Waiters has already been ruled out again tonight for the Heat, and CourtIQ tells us that Dragic sees about a 3% boost in usage with both Waiters and Justise Winslow off the floor. His usage rate of just over 30% leads the team in those circumstances. With Waiters out, the minutes have also been more secure, as Tyler Johnson sees more time at shooting guard as opposed to snagging Dragic’s point guard minutes. Dragic is also coming off a pair of great games and draws a fine matchup against the Knicks. Buy low while you still can.
DraftKings Is Slacking In Raising My Price
Michael Beasley is $6,500 on FanDuel tonight, but he’s only $5,300 on DraftKings. He has gone for at least 26 fantasy points in four straight games, and he’s averaging 38.8 fantasy points in that span. He has a 29.4% usage rate over the last four games, and he’s been the leading scorer off the bench for the Knicks. Beasley is averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute this season, and has a 24.6% true usage. It’s all about minutes with him, and he’s closed three of the last four games for the Knicks.
I Get A Nice Usage Bump
Avery Bradley is one of my favorite plays on the slate tonight. I like him a lot more on DraftKings, and I think he’s underpriced for his role in the offense without Jackson on the floor. With Jackson ruled out, and Stanley Johnson doubtful for tonight’s game, Bradley is looking at an increased role. He has a 30.9% usage rate with those two off the floor, and his usage rate goes up to 31.4% with Drummond and Ish Smith on the floor with him. He played 37 minutes in his return on Wednesday, and had 29 fantasy points while shooting 6 for 19 from the field.
Increased Minutes Tonight
With Mike Conley ruled out and Andrew Harrison doubtful, Mario Chalmers becomes one of the best value plays on the slate tonight. Chalmers minutes have been all over the place lately, but he played 25 minutes against the Clippers on Tuesday. Ten of those minutes came in the fourth quarter after he checked in for Harrison. We don’t have a ton of value options on the slate tonight, and Chalmers might actually become chalk on this slate because of the options. I like his chances to play 22+ minutes tonight, and he’s averaging .79 fantasy points per minute with Conley, Harrison, and Parsons off the floor this season and Evans/Gasol on the floor.
Andre Iguodala expected to start for Kevin Durant (calf) on Thursday
Durant has been ruled out and won’t suit up for tonight’s game against the Houston Rockets due to a strained right calf he sustained in the first quarter of Wednesday’s win, while Omri Casspi will remain sidelined with a mid-back strain that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games. Andre Iguodala was not included in the latest version of the injury report, meaning he will be available for Thursday’s contest following a one-game absence due to a strained hip and lower back. Casspi was a candidate to start at small forward in place of Durant, but now that he’s officially unavailable, either Iguodala will receive the starting nod instead. Stephen Curry managed to log 34 minutes yesterday and there’s currently been no confirmation on whether he’ll be subject to a minute restriction in his first back-to-back set since returning from an ankle injury. If Curry gets the all clear, he’ll immediately become one of the top options on the slate at any position, as he owns a +9.3% usage rate differential with Durant off the court this season, and he leads the Warriors with a 40.8% usage rate while averaging 1.82 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.74 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: Craig Ackerman via Twitter
Omri Casspi (back strain) ruled out Thursday
Casspi has been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Houston Rockets after previously being listed as questionable on the Golden State Warriors’ injury report with a strained back that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games. Kevin Durant was already ruled out due to a strained right calf he sustained in the first quarter of Wednesday’s win, while Andre Iguodala was not included in the latest version of the injury report, meaning he will be available for Thursday’s contest following a one-game absence due to a strained hip and lower back. Casspi was a candidate to start at small forward in place of Durant, but now that he’s officially unavailable, either Iguodala or Patrick McCaw will receive the starting nod. Stephen Curry managed to log 34 minutes in last night’s contest and there’s currently been no confirmation on whether he’ll be subject to a minute restriction in his first back-to-back situation since returning from an ankle injury. If Curry gets the all clear, he’ll immediately become one of the top options on the slate at any position, as he owns a +9.3% usage rate differential with Durant off the court this season, and he leads the Warriors with a 40.8% usage rate while averaging 1.82 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.74 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: Connor Letourneau via Twitter Nene (rest, sore knee) officially ruled out Thursday
Nene has been ruled out, as expected, and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Golden State Warriors after previously being considered unlikely to play on the second leg of a back-to-back set due to rest purposes and a sore right knee. Head coach Mike D’Antoni confirmed with reporters that he’ll stick to the same rotation he utilized in Wednesday’s blowout win, minus Nene, which means that there is some playing time available at the center spot in the second unit. This void could be filled by a couple of different candidates, namely Tarik Black or Ryan Anderson since Zhou Qi is currently on a G-League assignment, but Black won’t absorb enough playing time to be considered in daily fantasy formats and runs the risk of receiving a DNP-CD since both he and Nene did not see the court in the Rockets’ previous matchup with the Warriors this season.
As reported by: Tim MacMahon via Twitter Danny Green (tight groin) ruled out for Friday
Green has been listed as out on the San Antonio Spurs’ injury report for tomorrow’s game against the Phoenix Suns due to left groin tightness that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games, while Rudy Gay is the only other player listed on the injury report and remains sidelined with right heel bursitis. This means that Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili are all expected to play after being rested for Wednesday’s contest. In Green’s absence, either Kyle Anderson or Bryn Forbes will remain in the starting lineup at the shooting guard spot, the former coming off of an impressive performance in 35 minutes of action in his spot start. Leonard managed to log a season-high 31 minutes in Tuesday’s contest, and he appears to be trending towards a full minute workload in non-back-to-back situations, making him an intriguing tournament target on Friday’s slate at a likely suppressed price tag across the industry.
As reported by: Michael C. Wright via Twitter Kevin Durant (calf) ruled out Thursday; Omri Casspi (back) questionable
Durant has been ruled out and won’t suit up for tonight’s game against the Houston Rockets due to a strained right calf he sustained in the first quarter of Wednesday’s win. Meanwhile, Omri Casspi has been listed as questionable on the Golden State Warriors’ injury report with a mid-back strain that has already forced him to miss one game, and Andre Iguodala was not included in the latest version of the injury report, meaning he should be available for Thursday’s contest following a one-game absence due to a strained hip and lower back. Casspi is a candidate to start at small forward in place of Durant if he’s able to suit, but if he’s ruled out, either Iguodala or Patrick McCaw would receive the starting nod. Stephen Curry managed to log 34 minutes yesterday and there’s currently been no confirmation on whether he’ll be subject to a minute restriction in his first back-to-back set since returning from an ankle injury. If Curry gets the all clear, he’ll immediately become one of the top options on the slate at any position, as he owns a +9.3% usage rate differential with Durant off the court this season, and he leads the Warriors with a 40.8% usage rate while averaging 1.82 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.74 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: Warriors PR via Twitter Other tagged players: Omri Casspi Injury Has Created Opportunity For Me
Terrance Ferguson started for the injured Andre Roberson last night and played 32 minutes. Some of those minutes were in the blowout, but he played 25 of those 32 minutes before the 4th quarter. He played 13 first half minutes, and played the whole third quarter. Roberson is already ruled out for tonight’s game, and Abrines is doubtful with a groin injury. With a lot of studs on this slate, I like the idea of being different with taking a shot on Ferguson.
Overlooked in a Two Game Slate
For whatever reason, Paul George has not been popping in some of the popular projection models across the DFS industry. This has led to low ownership, even though he has been playing at a high level for weeks now. With Andre Roberson out, he could play upwards of 40 minutes tonight against the Clippers, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season.
Limited Options at Shooting Guard
The Rockets’ starters didn’t quite live up to expectations last night against the Magic, but that game was basically over at half-time. I’m going right back to the well tonight. With James Harden off the floor this season, Eric Gordon has a 34% usage rate and is averaging 0.98 FP/min. If he averages anywhere close to that tonight against the Warriors, he should be able to exceed value expectations.
Center is Limited
Clint Capela didn’t quite reach the 50 fantasy point mark that I was hoping for last night, but he was very efficient in his 23 minutes against the Magic, scoring 36 fantasy points. Nene Hilario has been ruled out of tonight’s game, so Capela could see a boost in minutes. If he plays 28-30 minutes against the Warriors, we have to like his chances to reach and exceed value.
Top Value of the Night
With elite players like Westbrook, Paul, Curry, Durant, etc… available to play tonight, finding value is going to be a critical mission. Unfortunately, these four teams aren’t exactly loaded with quality value plays. That’s part of the reason why I am looking at Gerald Green. Houston will need some added scoring punch in the absence of James Harden, and Green is coming off a fantastic performance against the Magic on Wednesday. His price has not yet been adjusted to reflect this new role, so Green makes sense as one of the most logical values on the slate. He carries some GPP upside, too, that we just can’t get in guys like Andre Iguodala.
Time to Bounce Back
Chris Paul was a bit of a letdown last night in the first game sans James Harden, but much of that was due to the fact that the Rockets earned a comfortable victory over the Magic, and Paul had a rough shooting night (just 3-for-13 from the floor). That won’t happen all too often, and this is a fine spot for a bounce-back in a pace up game against the Warriors. Paul only played 32 minutes last night, so I would not expect any restrictions on the tail end of a back-to-back set, especially in a nationally televised game against a great team. I will happily go back to the well, and I like Paul as a better dollar-for-dollar play than Westbrook tonight.