DFS Alerts
Power Forward to Pay Up For
Blake Griffin has shown no signs of rust since returning from injury. The Clippers have also given him a full complement of minutes, which was a bit surprising. In his first game back, he played 32 minutes and scored 39 fantasy points. He backed that up against the Hornets, playing 33 minutes and scoring 47 fantasy points. The Grizzlies have a good defense as a whole, but they struggle to defend power forwards. On the season, they are ranked 20th in efficiency against power forwards.
Value Point Guard for Tonight's Five Game Slate
De’Aaron Fox has been out for the last few games, which has opened up big minutes for George Hill. Over his last five games, Hill is averaging over 30 minutes. While his fantasy production doesn’t really jump off the page during that stretch, we know what Hill is capable of. Fox has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game, but Frank Mason has been ruled out. Hill should be locked into 30+ minutes in a decent matchup against Kemba Walker and the Hornets.
Avery Bradley (adductor) expects to play Wednesday; Stanley Johnson (hip) doubtful
Bradley participated fully in practice and expects to be “good to go” for tomorrow’s game against the Miami Heat despite still being listed as probable on the latest version of the Detroit Pistons’ game notes with a strained right adductor that has forced him to miss seven consecutive games. Meanwhile, Stanley Johnson did not practice and, according to head coach Stan Van Gundy, is “doubtful at best” for Wednesday’s contest due to a strained left hip. Bradley’s likely return will displace the duo of Luke Kennard and Anthony Tolliver from starting lineup consideration, as head coach Stan Van Gundy has opted to alternate their starts based on the matchup. The Pistons will still be without Reggie Jackson for tomorrow’s game and with him, Johnson, and Jon Leuer off the court this season, Bradley and Reggie Bullock each own at least a +3.8% usage rate differential while Andre Drummond leads the team with a rate of 1.56 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.62 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: James Edwards III via Twitter Other tagged players: Stanley Johnson
Risk/Reward GPP Appeal
I like Nurkic as a differentiation play in tournaments tonight. He is coming off an 11 point, 15 rebound double-double in a healthy dose of minutes on Monday, and we all know that he is as streaky as they come. While the back-to-back set after an overtime game is a slight concern, we can still take advantage of possible low ownership, and I don’t mind his matchup against a generally under-sized Cleveland interior. If the minutes are there, I think Nurkic has GPP-winning type upside here tonight.
James Johnson (ankle) questionable for Wednesday; Dion Waiters (ankle) and Justise Winslow (knee) remain out
Johnson has been upgraded to questionable on the Miami Heat’s injury report for tomorrow’s game against the Detroit Pistons due to right ankle bursitis that has already forced him to miss three consecutive, while Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow will remain sidelined with their respective ailments. Kelly Olynyk continues to start at power forward alongside Hassan Whiteside, who finally saw his playing time spike to 29 minutes in Saturday’s and appears to be trending in the right direction in terms of minutes and fantasy production. If Johnson is cleared to play, it remains uncertain if he’ll be subject to a minute restriction or if he’ll displace Olynyk from the starting power forward spot, though he’ll certainly be a key cog in the frontcourt rotation either way. Tyler Johnson figures to remain as the starting shooting guard with Waiters still unavailable and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of the past seven games. The players that have benefited the most with Waiters and Winslow off the court this season are Whiteside and Goran Dragic, as each own at least a +3.0% usage rate differential, while Whiteside leads the team with a rate of 1.41 fantasy points per minute in this scenario
As reported by: Anthony Chiang via Twitter Other tagged players: Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow Let's Try This Again
It’s always very frustrating when playing Marquese Chriss because of his foul trouble, but it’s hard not to look at him on this slate tonight. He’s played over 25 minutes in four of the last six games, and has at least 25 fantasy points in three straight games. Atlanta isn’t typically a team that will go small, and I’m expecting Chriss to play 25+ minutes tonight if he can stay out of foul trouble. Atlanta is 12th in efficiency against power forwards, but they’re 25th in total defensive efficiency this season. I really like this game tonight, and I’m going to be attacking a lot of the value options in it.
I'm Impressing The Coach
There was a quote a few days ago about Jeff Hornacek thinking about starting Frank Ntilikina. I doubt this happens tonight, but it surely helps with guessing the minutes of Ntilikina. It’s a tough matchup on paper, but guards have done well against the Spurs this season. With value very limited tonight, I’m looking at guys that will play minutes, and I’m also looking for players that will be low owned. I’m expecting Frank Ntilikina to be low owned, and he’s played at least 26 minutes in four straight games.
Overlooked In A Plus Matchup
We don’t have a lot of value options tonight, and I feel like Marco Belinelli will be overlooked in this great matchup. He’s not an option that presents a ton of upside because of his limited minutes, but he does have over 20 fantasy points in four of the last five games. Atlanta receives the biggest bump in pace, and they’re implied team total is 4.3 points higher than their season average. There’s nothing safe about this play, but I’m looking at Belinelli to provide salary relief and give me 20+ fantasy points.
Kevin Love (illness) questionable Tuesday
Love did not participate in shootaround this morning and has officially been listed as questionable on the Cleveland Cavaliers’ injury report for tonight’s game against the Portland Trail Blazers due to an illness. The only other time Love was sidelined with an injury this season, Ante Zizic ended up drawing the start at center in his place but logged just four minutes and was replaced by Jeff Green to begin the second half. Isaiah Thomas will make his season and Cavaliers debut in Tuesday’s contest but will come off the bench in his return to action, and he is expected to be subject to a minute restriction of around 8-12 minutes as he works his way back into game shape following an extended injury absence. Eventually, he’ll displace Jose Calderon as the starting point guard, but in the meantime, he’ll siphon usage away from Dwyane Wade and Jeff Green in limited stretches with the second unit. With Love off the court this season, LeBron James unsurprisingly owns a +3.3% usage rate differential but has also seen his production skyrocket to 1.79 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.77 on FanDuel in this scenario, making him virtually a must play in all formats should Love eventually be ruled out.
As reported by: Chris Fedor via Twitter By the Numbers: Not Point Chasing
The Cavs have been a quality matchup to target all season long. Cleveland has been just below mid-pack in terms of average player ownership against, and yet they allow top 5 value over RGVal expectation on average. This is particularly true against “Versatile Forwards”, who they rank dead last in points allowed against. Al-Farouq Aminu is classified as a “Versatile Forward” in my analysis, and his projections only strengthen the confidence he has given us with a solid game last night. RG has him pegged for 15 USG%, 6 ASST%, and 14 REB%. That’s enough to get him to our 5th best RGVal metric early in the day. We can expect him to matchup with favorable defenders like Jae Crowder (1.44 DRPM), Lebron James (.2 DRPM), and Kevin Love (-.39 DRPM) during the course of this game. His price is reasonably attractive on Draftkings and Fanduel, and you should not consider it point chasing when dialing him up in tournaments lineups tonight. He could be a very solid source of cap relief in the absence of news.
Damian Lillard (hamstring strain) will play Tuesday
Lillard has been cleared to play and will suit up for tonight’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, according to ESPN’s Chris Haynes, after missing five consecutive games with a strained right hamstring. This news is far from surprising, but it is confirmation of Lillard’s statement prior to Monday’s contest that he planned to play this evening and only sat out Monday night as a way to avoid playing both legs of a back-to-back set. There’s been no word of a minute restriction for Lillard in his first game back, but his presence in the lineup will send Shabazz Napier back to the bench to resume his normal reserve and will be irrelevant in daily fantasy formats moving forward after averaging 36.4 minutes of court time sans Lillard the past five games. Not surprisingly, the two players that suffer the most from a usage standpoint are Napier and C.J. McCollum, as each own at least a -3.5% usage rate differential with Lillard on the court this season. That said, it’s important to note that McCollum does not see his per minute production drastically change in this scenario, keeping him in play for tournament formats after failing to meet salary-based expectations in four of the last six games.
As reported by: Chris Haynes via Twitter By the Numbers: An Exciting Matchup
Rotogrinders early-day projection for Prince is a touch aggressive, and that’s ok from my corner. The projection model has attributed a fair 19 USG rate, but a fairly hefty increase in ASST% and REB% against the Suns. The projections also have this game with a lofty 103.72 pace number. On Draftkings, the result is the 7th highest RGVal metric on this slate. In an unrelated story, I have been categorizing each NBA player with a style archetype that goes beyond the old and busted traditional position assignments in NBA. I am doing this so that I can get a different look at DVP, and better understand how teams have performed against playing styles vs. static positions. According to those numbers, the Suns are 3rd worst on the season in DVP against players of Prince’s archetype. Potential defenders on Prince tonight include Devin Booker (-1.98 DRPM), TJ Warren (-1.7 DRPM), and foul machine Marquese Chriss (.4 DRPM). He is viable in cash games, with a nice potential to reach his ceiling in tournaments. He checks too many boxes for me to ignore on this relatively brief 5 game affair.
News Broke My Way
Napier has played at least 34 minutes in the four games without Lillard, and he has at least 35 fantasy points in each of those games. He also has 20 actual points in three of those four games. He has a 26.3% usage rate over that span, and he’s averaging 1.08 fantasy points per minute.
Damian Lillard (hamstring strain) ruled out Monday
Lillard has been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Chicago Bulls after previously being listed as questionable on the Portland Trail Blazers’ injury report and considered a game-time decision with a strained right hamstring that has now forced him to miss five consecutive games. Shabazz Napier has started at point guard in the Trail Blazers’ last three games and should continue to do so for the duration of Lillard’s absence following a string of outstanding performances in just under 36 minutes per game. While Napier sees the largest bump in playing time with Lillard sidelined, it’s C.J. McCollum that benefits the most from a usage standpoint and owns a +6.3% usage rate differential with Lillard off the court this season, while he also leads the team with a 33.4% usage rate overall and has averaged 0.99 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 0.96 on FanDuel in this scenario but has been unable to exceed salary-based expectations in three of the last four games.
As reported by: Casey Holdahl via Twitter I've Been Playing Well In My Increased Role
With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out tonight, Josh Hart should start and play 27+ minutes for the Lakers tonight. Hart has played 32, 27, and 36 minutes in his three starts for KCP this season, and he has over 27 fantasy points in each of those three games. Minnesota ranks 24th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards this season, and Hart is one of my favorite value plays on the slate.