DFS Alerts

Kendall Wright will not play Week 1

Kendall Wright has been ruled out for the Titans Week 1 tilt with the Vikings. It’s going to be the Rishard Matthews/Tajae Sharpe show at WR with Delanie Walker eating up targets from the TE spot. Sharpe is one of the most interesting punt plays of the weekend at the receiver spot, and it’s even more evident with Wright out of the picture. Sharpe is priced at the minimum on DraftKings, where his PPR abilities (in college, at least) make him a very intriguing play that will allow you to roster guys like Antonio Brown and Julio Jones alongside him. Wright currently doesn’t have a timetable for a return and Mike Mularky has stated that he’ll run a combination of Harry Douglas, Marc Mariani and Andre Johnson in the slot during the final few practices of the week.

Pete Carroll reiterates that the only restriction on Rawls is the number of snaps he'll play

It’s now evident that Christine Michael is going to see the bulk of the work in the Seattle backfield. Pete Carroll has stated that the season opener will be treated like Rawls’ second preseason game, so it’s safe to expect Michael to see somewhere around twice the number of carries as the second year back. We should anticipate somewhere between 6-10 touches for Rawls if Carroll stays true to his word, with Michael eating up whatever is left, which will likely include any goal-line work. Rawls is clearly not a DFS option in Week 1, while Michael will be a viable punt play in GPPs. It’s still very likely that Rawls regains his role as the lead back within the first quarter of the season.

Jimmy Graham reportedly has a good shot to suit up Week 1

Despite the fact that Graham is expected to suit up, he’s not going to play a full allotment of snaps and considering how soft salaries are in Week 1, there is no reason to roster him just yet. Luke Willson still figures to see some work between the 20s and with guys like Fleener, Ertz and Kelce available at cheaper price tags, there is even less intrigue to rostering Graham. It won’t be long before the versatile TE is making a strong impact in Seattle, it just isn’t likely to happen this early.

Carlos Hyde cleared for football activity

He appears likely to suit up for Week 1 at this point, assuming he’s able to take some contact during the last few practices of the week. Hyde is returning from a concussion which is always an iffy situation in the NFL, although we’ll fortunately have a practice report from the 49ers tomorrow afternoon. The Rams allowed the 10th most FPPG to the RB spot last year, which was probably more of a product of them trailing later in games than the general weakness of their defense, which boasts some noteworthy talent on the interior (Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers). Todd Gurley is the much safer DFS target in this game, but Hyde is usable as a GPP target given his role as the 49ers workhorse. We’ll update his status as his practice reports become available.

Justin Forsett says he'll start Sunday against the Bills

This is what we expected after Forsett was brought back onto the Ravens roster, especially considering he acted as the lead back in the Ravens RBBC during the preseason. Forsett describes his release from the Ravens as a ‘trial separation’ and he doesn’t anticipate missing anything as a result of his short time away from the team, so he’s fully expected to head the Ravens backfield against a Bills defense that ranked 30th in DVOA against RBs last year. This takes Terrance West and Javorius Allen out of play for the season opener, and although Forsett is likely to handle the bulk of the work, he’s still priced as a starter on most DFS outlets. His $4,600 price tag on DK does make him an intriguing punt play over there, but paying almost $7K for his services on FanDuel is not an optimal strategy on a week where salaries are very soft. He’s a GPP play regardless of where you use him – it’s simply not necessary to take this risk in cash games.

Vikings not expected to name starting QB until Sunday

Mike Zimmer isn’t interested in making things easier for the DFS community. He’s expected to wait until Sunday morning to name a starter, which may be because he’s waiting to see how Sam Bradford fares after a few days with his new offense. Given what Minnesota gave up for Bradford’s services, they are going to want to get him into game action as soon as possible. Shaun Hill’s presence wouldn’t change things drastically from a DFS perspective for the other skill position players on the Minnesota side, but having Bradford under center would seem to be a small bump in value for a few of the Vikings main playmakers. Although Bradford himself wouldn’t be a recommended DFS play, Adrian Peterson may see fewer stacked boxes – neither QB stretches the field well but Bradford is the more capable signal caller – which would make him a stronger GPP target in a game where the Vikings are slight favorites. Stefon Diggs, who has been running frequently out of the slot in the preseason, also benefits. Bradford’s best targets in previous years (J. Matthews with PHI, D. Amendola with STL) have frequented the slot.

Fading the Thursday game even more of a +EV strategy this week

Most DFS analysts out there will recommend fading the Thursday NFL game except in the rarest situations (two high-scoring teams squaring off). The main reason for this is ownership is generally out of proportion to what it should be because people want the excitement of being able to sweat some players while watching the game. This should definitely be the case this week as the two teams that battled in the Super Bowl kick off the NFL season. There are a number of reasons to completely fade this game besides the aforementioned ownership advantages. One, this game has the third lowest total on the board as it has the two top defenses in terms of DVOA from last season. Two, both teams will be run focused teams, as the Broncos have young, unproven Trevor Semien starting at QB and the Panthers always utilize a grind-it-out approach as part of their game plan. The odds of any player having the type of game you need to win a GPP are much less than rostering another similar priced player from one of the Sunday games with higher totals. If Cam Newton was cheaper you could make an argument for using him as a standalone but his price makes that a risk, especially going against a great Broncos defense. The one place you might look is the Panthers defense as they have a plus match up against Semien. For the most part though you’d be best off completely fading the game.

Texans fast tempo could lead to big day against Bears in Week 1

Everyone knows about DeAndre Hopkins after the huge season he put up last season and he’ll be on the radars of many this week as they put their lineups together. While Hopkins certainly has the ability to put up big numbers, the other higher priced receivers (Julio Jones and Antonio Brown) are better options. That said we’ll still want to get some exposure to this game as the Bears were one of the worst defenses in the league last season (31st in total defense DVOA, 23rd in pass defense DVOA, and 32nd in run defense DVOA). Many think the Bears defense will be improved, and it’s hard not to improve from those numbers, but as solid home favorites and what should be improved QB play from Brock Osweiler, the Texans have some players outside of Hopkins to target. Namely Osweiler himself, newly signed RB Lamar Miller, and rookie WR Will Fuller. Osweiler has plenty of upside manning the helm for Bill O’Brien and his fast-paced offense, especially with the talent he has alongside him. The Bears might focus on shutting down Miller and the run but game flow should lead to Miller getting opportunities to put up points in the red zone. Fuller is explosive and if the Bears focus their attention on Hopkins (as many suspect they will), he could break a big play or two. A team stack with three of these four players makes sense, especially if you’re creating multiple lineups.

LeSean McCoy may be the "shady" play of the week

The Buffalo Bills feature RB is going widely overlooked this weekend as the majority of the industry talks about bigger names like David Johnson, Lamar Miller, and Todd Gurley, or cheaper value plays like Latavius Murray and Spencer Ware. McCoy, however, is in prime position to put up a big game at significantly lower ownership than the aforementioned five. He comes in at an affordable $6,900 on FanDuel and $6,400 on DraftKings and is one of the rare backs in the league that will carry the load for his team. With Karlos Williams being released, he’s also much more likely to get the goal line work. The Ravens aren’t slouches in terms of defending the run (12th in DVOA last season) but McCoy has additional value in that he’s more than just a rushing threat. The Bills are also a relatively conservative offense which means more opportunities for McCoy to touch the ball. As we all know, the more opportunity a player gets the more likely they are to meet or exceed expectations.McCoy is a safe play with some upside and should be a consideration when constructing your Week 1 NFL rosters.

Vincent Jackson is just the type of play that can win you a GPP

When constructing your GPP rosters there are a couple of questions you should always keep in mind. One, can this player put up the kind of game that will win me a GPP. You’re not looking for the boring 5 catch for 60 yards outing. While that 11 points might get you in the money and might be a great cash game play (if the price of the player is low enough), it’s not the kind of game that will win you a GPP. You are looking for players who can give you the 4-5x or more outing. Players who can put up a 2 TD game.

The second question you need to ask you is how you can differentiate your roster from others, especially if you are going to use a highly owned player or two. With so many chalk options this week like Dak Prescott, Spencer Ware, and Marvin Jones, one of the ways you can do this is to find a similarly priced player with high upside to replace one of those chalk options. Vincent Jackson is just that type of player when looking for a pivot off of Marvin Jones. Yes he had an up and down season last year and is getting up there in years. He’ll also likely square off against Desmond Trufant a good chunk of the game.

However, with projected low ownership (RG’s Chris Gimino has him at 2.5% on DraftKings), a cheap price tag of $4,400, playing in a dome in a projected (47.5) high-scoring game, against a defense that was 22nd in pass DVOA last season, there’s an awful lot to like about VJax this week. Despite receiving just 40% of the targets that Mike Evans had last season, Jackson had just one less red zone target (and not to mention he dropped the ball much less than the talented but inconsistent Evans). Jackson is the definition of a high-risk play but it’s that kind of play that can win you all the money.

Jared Cook still a viable TE option despite Richard Rodgers starting

The Green Bay Packers depth chart has Richard Rodgers starting at TE ahead of Jared Cook. This isn’t all that surprising as Rodgers is the better run blocker and will likely be in on most non-passing downs. Rodgers does have some upside as a red zone target (15 last season) but likely will only get those targets this season in rare instances. Cook is definitely the TE to target from the Green Ba offense and he’ll be a popular option at his price point in Week 1 at $5,300 on FanDuel and the ridiculously low price of $2,900 on DraftKings. The Jaguars were 26th in total defense DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA last season and with most eyeing tight ends like Coby Fleener, Jordan Reed, and Rob Gronkowski, Cook could be a surprising source of fantasy goodness this Sunday.

Stefon Diggs seeing plenty of reps out of the slot in 3WR sets

With Jarius Wright banged up with a leg injury, Adam Theilen has been acting as the Vikings 3rd WR which has led to increased reps for Stefon Diggs out of the slot, something that should work well for his 2016 DFS value. Not only will Diggs find himself in more appealing WR/CB match-ups, but new quarterback Sam Bradford has historically favored his slot receivers (Jordan Matthews in Philly, Danny Amendola in St. Louis) and Diggs is more talented than any of the slot receivers Bradford has had at his disposal. Wright is the Vikings highest-paid WR and it’s likely that he’s going to take back some snaps from Theilen, but assuming Diggs continues to run out of the slot with regularity (more than half of his preseason snaps were out of the slot), he’s going to make for a solid DFS play in games where the Vikings are forced into a more pass-happy approach.

Christine Michael listed ahead of Thomas Rawls on Seahawks depth chart

It’s still tough to know what to make of this considering it’s still an unofficial depth chart, but it would appear that there is at least a committee in place between Michael and Rawls, with C.J. Prosise acting in a complementary role. At this point in the week we’d still expect Rawls to see a slightly bigger workload, although it’s more or less even money in terms of which of the two main backs will see more work. Rawls is still expected to be the main back throughout the course of the season, as Pete Carroll has said they won’t rush him back into heavy usage right out of the gate and expect his workload to increase over the first few games of the season. The main thing working against Rawls is that he was only able to appear in a single preseason game and didn’t get much work in that contest, which would seem to explain why Christine Michael – who has had a great camp and preseason according to the Seattle staff – is expected to play a major role early in the year. We’ll continue to track this situation as the week unfolds.

The merits in fading big name TE's in week 1

In reviewing reports around the DFS industry, it’s apparent that the majority feel that TE ownership will be split up mainly between four to five players with the rest being split evenly amongst a bunch of different middle tier TE’s. The five that are garnering the most attention (and rightfully so) are Jordan Reed, Rob Gronkowski, Coby Fleener, Delanie Walker, and Dwayne Allen. A couple players like Travis Kelce and Jared Cook lurk a bit behind. After those seven, identifying potential targets could be a huge difference maker in your GPP lineups. Some names to keep an eye on are Charles Clay, Tyler Kroft, Jesse James, Zach Ertz, Clive Walford, and Eric Ebron as that group should have lower ownership and all have some TD upside in their respective games. Walford probably stands out the most given his match up against the Saints and he’s a nice way to give yourself exposure to that game without going to chalk plays like Amari Cooper.

Titans WRs could be great source of value on DraftKings in Week 1

With Justin Hunter released and Kendall Wright’s skill set taking a rapid decline, Tajae Sharpe and recently acquired Rishard Matthews look to be great values on DraftKings in week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings. Sharpe has stood out during the preseason and at minimum price ($3,000) it shouldn’t take much for him to hit 3x value or more. We have him projected to as one of the top pts/$ plays with a nearly 4x projection of 11.83. Matthews isn’t much more expensive at $3,300 and is also projected to hit double figures at 10.47. The one concern is what appears to be a commitment to the run game by the Titans with the signing of DeMarco Murray and the drafting of Derrick Henry but in what should be a close, even matched game, there should be enough passing to allow Sharpe and Matthews to hit double digit fantasy points in a PPR format like DK.