DFS Alerts
Michael Floyd expected to start against the Packers in place of Stefon Diggs
Floyd will have a favorable spot against an injury-riddled Packers secondary but it’ll be hard to trust the receiver to exploit the matchup in his second game with the team. Most targets should flow towards Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, and Jerick McKinnon. Floyd should get some run at corner Damarious Randall, who has permitted a 116.8 passer rating (67th among corners) and 1.55 yards per cover snap (59th, per PFF). Even so, Thielen will likely get the preferred matchup with Quinten Rollins in the slot, who’s allowed a reception all 15 times he’s been targeted inside.
49ers LB Reuben Foster inactive for Week 6; S Eric Reid active
The rookie linebacker appeared on track for a return Sunday but he couldn’t get cleared by the 49ers medical team. Reid is expected to be eased back in after missing the past few games. Jaquicki Tartt has been superb while Reid’s been sidelined, earning the fourth-best saftey grade from PFF. He’s had a major influence on the 49ers success against tight ends – they’ve allowed the fewest PPR points to the position. Jordan Reed should have a bigger role than he did last time out and he has a great price on DraftKings at $5k, but he’s admitted he isn’t 100% and Washington’s receivers will have much better matchups this afternoon.
Rob Kelley (ankle) inactive for Week 6, as expected; Chris Thompson expected to start
Kelley’s absence is expected to elevate Samaje Perine to the primary early-down grinder role with Chris Thompson operating as the pass-down back. However, the Redskins are saying Thompson will start and he should pick up more carries than normal – he earned eight the last time Kelley was out. Even better, Thompson, the team’s leading receiver, went off for a 6/7/150/1 receiving line in that game and he’ll have another great spot against the 49ers. Their defense ranks 22nd in receiving RB DVOA and has given up the most passes to the position (9.7, per FO). Perine struggled in the starting role against the Raiders in Week 3, posting just 49 yards on 19 carries. On the season, he’s only averaging 3.1 ypc but SF’s defensive line has been mediocre, ranking 16th in adjusted line yards (4.05) and they’re allowing the ninth-most rushing yards to RBs this season (103.6).
Other tagged players: Chris Thompson, Samaje Perine Kenny Golladay, Dwayne Washington, and RG T.J. Lang inactive for Week 6; Matt Stafford will start, as expected
New Orleans has shaken up their secondary following their poor start to the season and may be better than it seems. Rookie Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley are now the starting corners and limiting receivers to 0.74 and 0.94 yards per cover snap (per PFF), respectively. Since jumping into the starting lineup in Week 3, Crawley has impressively limited opposing quarterbacks to a 31.3 passer rating even though he’s been picked on the most – he now leads the Saints corners in targets despite only playing in half their games. He’s notably earned PFF’s fourth-best cover grade among CBs. With Golladay likely out, TJ Jones and Marvin Jones will have their work cut out for them with these guys on the outside. New Orleans weak point remains in the slot where they roll up safety Kenny Vaccaro – who replaced DeVante Harris following his disastrous Week 1 performance. He’s allowing a 121.3 rating when in the slot and the seventh-worst covers snaps per reception rate (8.7). That sets up a great spot for Golden Tate, who’s leading the team in targets (40, 23.1%) and receiving yards (267). This game currently has the highest total of the week at 50.5 points and the Lions have an implied total of 22.75 as +5.0 road dogs. Lang’s absence could spell trouble for the Lions, he’s earned the second-best tackle grade from PFF this season, and Detroit’s offensive line has already allowed the sixth-most pressures this season.
Willie Snead (hamstring) active for Week 6
Snead was sidelined with a hamstring injury for the Saints’ last game and was considered questionable heading into Sunday. Given the uncertainty surrounding his role, the receiver is probably best seen as a very risky tournament option – he told the media earlier this week that he was being eased back in and the injury is clearly still bothering him. With Brandin Cooks in New England, Snead is expected to become the second receiving option behind Michael Thomas in the coming weeks. Newcomer Tedd Ginn hasn’t done much to dissuade that from happening with his 11/146/1 line through four games and current slot receiver Brandon Coleman picked up just one target in each of the past two outings. Against Detroit, Snead will battle Quandre Diggs in the slot if he plays. Following a dismal 2016 campaign, Diggs has reemerged with a strong 84.6 PFF cover grade (13th). While he did well against Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals in Week 1, allowing just one completions on five targets, he got burned by Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu in the slot for two scores in Week 3. Overall, he’s allowing a 114.9 passer rating but he hasn’t been targeted much inside (14) which has enabled him to produce the sixth-best yards per cover snap rate (0.68). Quarterback Drew Brees shouldn’t shy away from his Snead when he’s on the field though, he could really test Diggs. He targeted Snead 6.9 times per game in 2016 even with Cooks still around and PFF accredited the receiver with the 13th-best catch rate among all receivers (75%). The problem is predicting Snead’s snap share, it’s not clear how much the Saints are willing to use him in his first game back.
Packers S Morgan Burnett, CB Kevin King, and CB Davon House inactive for Week 6; Ts Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari will play
The Packers will be thin in the secondary against the Vikings today. It should provide excellent matchups for both Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Green Bay will have both starting tackles active, which is great news for Aaron Rodgers. It should help the running game as well but Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones will be in a timeshare against a Minnesota defense that’s held RBs to the second-fewest PPR points this season. Thielen should see plenty of opportunities from Case Keenum in the number one receiver role. The Packers are 26th in WR1 DVOA while allowing the tenth-most passes to top wideouts (8.5, per FO). Last Sunday, Dez Bryant managed a decent 5/8/52/1 line against them. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers will likely be forced to play Quinten Rollins inside due to the injuries. The corner has allowed a completion all 15 times he’s been targeted in the slot this season. The Packers have allowed the second-fewest PPR points to tight ends and Burnett played a big role in that. Rudolph, who will see a bigger role with Diggs out, should be in a much better spot than it shows on paper.
Other tagged players: Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph Rex Burkhead, CB Stephon Gilmore, and CB Eric Rowe inactive for Week 6
Gilmore has been dealing with a headache since their game against the Bucs so he’s been placed in the concussion protocol and won’t play this afternoon. It leaves the Patriots thin at corner. Jonathan Jones is expected to start opposite Malcolm Butler, which presents a solid matchup for outside receivers Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse as Jones is allowing a 97.3 passer rating and 2.1 yards per cover snap (per PFF). The latter stat would be the most in the league if he had enough snaps to qualify.
DeVante Parker (ankle) and CB Byron Maxwell inactive for Week 6; CB Xavien Howard active
The Dolphins will be without the receiver when they visit the Falcons this afternoon. His absence will open up targets for Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills. Slot receiver Landry will have the best individual matchup. When in the slot, Falcons nickel corner Brian Poole is allowing a 75% catch rate and 1.5 yards per cover snap (fifth-most, per PFF). Landry has been a ball hog this year, cornering off a 30% market share of the team’s targets and posting three games with double-digit looks. He’s struggled in the yards department though as his 5.7 average depth of target ranks 107th among 117 qualifying receivers. Per usual, that gives him more appeal in full PPR scoring – his $6.6k salary on DraftKings looks like a great deal with Parker sidelined. CB Cordrea Tankersley will start in Maxwell’s place again. He’s earned a decent grade in his rookie season, checking in as PFF’s 56th cover grade, but he’s allowing an 85% catch rate which could work in Taylor Gabriel’s favor this afternoon.
Kenny Britt (groin) expected to be inactive for Week 6
It’ll be his second missed game in a row. Ricardo Louis will become the de facto number one receiver and Kasen Williams should get work on the opposite side. Williams will have a favorable matchup against Johnthan Banks, who’s allowed the fifth-most yards per cover snap since he signed with the Texans three weeks ago (2.29, per PFF). Louis will primarily go up against Jonathan Joseph, PFF’s 61st cover corner. This cornerback group doesn’t look like anything to fear as their slot guy, Kareem Jackson, rounds out their top trio with PFF’s 103rd cover grade. When in the slot this season, Jackson has been the worst in the league with 2.3 yards per cover snap (2.3) and he’s second-worst in both passer rating (123.9) and cover snaps per reception (6.4). Rashard Higgins has been quiet for three weeks after blowing up for a 7/11/95/0 line but he could be a sneaky GPP gamble. The added risk there is his playing time, after topping 50 snaps for three straight games, Higgins only earned 37 last week against the Jets while newcomer Bryce Treggs beat him with 42. Tight end David Njoku has a team-high three touchdowns and two of them came from Kevin Hogan. There’s some chemistry between the two and Houston has allowed the fourth-most yards to the position and eighth-most PPR points despite ranking sixth in TE DVOA. All of these solid matchups signal an opportunity for Hogan to beat his cheap salary. The Texans are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to QBs and Hogan comes with a decent floor boost from his running ability. In the lone game he received significant playing time in 2016, he ran for 104 yards and a score on seven attempts. In just one half against the Jets last week, he added 30 yards on four carries. He was also very efficient through the air, completing 16-of-19 passes for 194 yards and two scores. He won’t exactly be sneaky though, we’re projecting 10% ownership on DraftKings, the third-highest among QBs on the slate.
Jeremy Maclin inactive for Week 6
Maclin is dealing with a shoulder injury and couldn’t get cleared to play Sunday. His absence should open up targets for Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, and running back Buck Allen. Mike Campanaro will likely serve as the third receiver. Perriman has been very quiet this season, catching just 4-of-15 targets, but he’ll work into a bigger role today against corner Kyle Fuller. So far this season, quarterbacks have loved to pick on Fuller, he’s posted the third-worst cover snaps per target rate (4.5, per PFF) and in turn, he’s allowing the 11th-most yards per cover snap (1.65). Perriman is undoubtedly a very risky GPP gamble as there’s no guarantee he can exploit the spot, even with Maclin down, but he should come with no ownership.
Other tagged players: Breshad Perriman Buccaneers LB Lavonte David and S T.J. Ward expected to play Week 6
Both players were inactive last week but they’re ready to make their return this afternoon when the Bucs visit the Cardinals. David’s presence would help shore up the middle of the field and the Bucs receiving RB coverage which was picked apart by Tom Brady last week through a mix of Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola in the slot and James White out of the backfield. White posted a 7/57/0 line while Hogan and Amendola combined for a 15/132/1 line when lined up in the slot. The Bucs will still be without LB Kwon Alexander, which could encourage Carson Palmer to try a similar approach with Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Ellington. Palmer should also pick on Vernon Hargreaves, PFF’s 101st cover corner, on the outside. He’ll see John Brown and Jaron Brown the most, which sets up a great matchup for the receivers. Hargreaves has allowed the fifth-highest passer rating (127.6), second-most receiving yards (354), and fourth-most yards per cover snap (2.02). John is getting healthier and he supplanted Jaron as the number two receiver again in Week 5, out-snapping him 48 to 36. He was only able to haul in two of his seven targets, but one was for a touchdown. He’ll look to build on that against the Bucs on Sunday.
Willie Snead remains a game-time decision for Week 6; LT Terron Armstead expected to play
Snead was sidelined with a hamstring injury for the Saints’ last game and is considered questionable on the injury report. Given the uncertainty surrounding his role, the receiver is probably best seen as a very risky tournament option – he told the media earlier this week that he was being eased back in and the injury is clearly still bothering him. With Brandin Cooks in New England, Snead is expected to become the second receiving option behind Michael Thomas in the coming weeks. Newcomer Tedd Ginn hasn’t done much to dissuade that from happening with his 11/146/1 line through four games and current slot receiver Brandon Coleman picked up just one target in each of the past two outings. Against Detroit, Snead will battle Quandre Diggs in the slot if he plays. Following a dismal 2016 campaign, Diggs has reemerged with a strong 84.6 PFF cover grade (13th). While he did well against Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals in Week 1, allowing just one completions on five targets, he got burned by Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu in the slot for two scores in Week 3. Overall, he’s allowing a 114.9 passer rating but he hasn’t been targeted much inside (14) which has enabled him to produce the sixth-best yards per cover snap rate (0.68). Quarterback Drew Brees shouldn’t shy away from his Snead when he’s on the field though, he could really test Diggs. He targeted Snead 6.9 times per game in 2016 even with Cooks still around and PFF accredited the receiver with the 13th-best catch rate among all receivers (75%). The probolem is predicting Snead’s snap share, it’s not clear how much the Saints are willing to use him in his first game back. Armstead hasn’t played yet this season. He was questionable heading into Week 4’s game with the Dolphins and now that he’s had another week to rehab, he should be ready for a Week 6 return. Even without Armstead, who earned a solid 83.6 PFF grade in 2016, the Saints offensive line has excelled. They’re currently first in adjusted sack rate (per FO), third in pass-blocking efficiency (per PFF), and seventh in adjusted line yards (4.48 per FO).
Kenny Britt (knee) will be a game-time decision for Week 6
Britt suffered a mid-week setback to the groin injury that held him out of last week’s game. He’s performed poorly since joining the Browns, catching just 8-of-23 targets over four games. Perhaps he will come out motivated if he plays or maybe Kevin Hogan under center can help his bottom line, but he’s far from reliable at this point. That said, it looks like he’d at least have a favorable matchup against Johnthan Banks, who’s allowed the fifth-most yards per cover snap since he signed with the Texans three weeks ago (2.29, per PFF). Ricardo Louis would be the de facto number one receiver if Britt is out. He’ll primarily go up against Jonathan Joseph, PFF’s 61st cover corner. This cornerback group isn’t anything to fear as their slot guy, Kareem Jackson, rounds out their top trio with PFF’s 103rd cover grade. When in the slot this season, Jackson has led the league with 2.3 yards per cover snap (2.3) and he’s second-worst in both passer rating (123.9) and cover snaps per reception (6.4). Rashard Higgins has been quiet for three weeks after blowing up for a 7/11/95/0 line but he could be a sneaky GPP gamble. The added risk there is his playing time, after topping 50 snaps for three straight games, Higgins only earned 37 last week against the Jets while newcomer Bryce Treggs beat him with 42. Tight end David Njoku has a team-high three touchdowns and two of them came from Kevin Hogan. There’s some chemistry between the two and Houston has allowed the fourth-most yards to the position and eighth-most PPR points despite ranking sixth in TE DVOA. All of these solid matchups signal an opportunity for Hogan to beat his cheap salary. The Texans are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to QBs and Hogan comes with a decent floor boost from his running ability. In the lone game he received significant playing time in 2016, he ran for 104 yards and a score on seven attempts. In just one half against the Jets last week, he added 30 yards on four carries. He was also very efficient through the air, completing 16-of-19 passes for 194 yards and two scores. He won’t exactly be sneaky though, we’re projecting 10% ownership on DraftKings, the third-highest among QBs on the slate.
Other tagged players: Ricardo Louis, Rashard Higgins, David Njoku, Kevin Hogan Matt Stafford (ankle) will start Week 6, Kenny Golladay (hamstring, questionable) not expected to play
New Orleans has shaken up their secondary following their poor start to the season and may be better than it seems. Rookie Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley are now the starting corners and limiting receivers to 0.74 and 0.94 yards per cover snap (per PFF), respectively. Since jumping into the starting lineup in Week 3, Crawley has impressively limited opposing quarterbacks to a 31.3 passer rating even though he’s been picked on the most – he now leads the Saints corners in targets despite only playing in half their games. He’s notably earned PFF’s fourth-best cover grade among CBs. With Golladay likely out, TJ Jones and Marvin Jones will have their work cut out for them with these guys on the outside. New Orleans weak point remains in the slot where they roll up safety Kenny Vaccaro – who replaced DeVante Harris following his disastrous Week 1 performance. He’s allowing a 121.3 rating when in the slot and the seventh-worst covers snaps per reception rate (8.7). That sets up a great spot for Golden Tate, who’s leading the team in targets (40, 23.1%) and receiving yards (267). This game currently has the highest total of the week at 49.5 points and the Lions have an implied total of 22.5 as +4.5 road dogs.
Other tagged players: Kenny Golladay Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones expected to split carries against Vikings
Montgomery will play today and while he’s not expected to be “limited,” he will share the backfield work with Aaron Jones. It’s already a tough spot to target either guy in fantasy with Minnesota holding opposing RBs to the second-fewest PPR points per game, the volume concerns make them less appealing. It may be better to look towards Green Bay’s passing attack. While Jordy Nelson is expected to be in a tough spot under Xavier Rhodes’ shadow, Davante Adams matchup with Trae Waynes scores the fourth-highest rating in our WR/CB model. Waynes has allowed the seventh-most yards among corners (307, per PFF), fifth-most yards per cover snap (1.93), a 74.2% catch rate, and posted the second-worst cover snaps per reception rate (6.9). Adams offers a $1.4k savings off Nelson on DraftKings this week.
Other tagged players: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson