DFS Alerts
Bilal Powell (calf) ruled out for Week 6
The running back is dealing with a calf strain which will keep him sidelined against the Patriots this afternoon, as expected. Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire are expected to split running back duties. New England’s defense has struggled so far, ranking 27th in both rush and receiving RB DVOA and they’ve allowed the most PPR points to RBs this season. Although that seems like a terrific spot, the timeshare may prevent either player from capitalizing. McGuire’s big 69-yard run makes him pop on the stat sheet with 5.2 yards per carry but with that rush taken out, he’s averaging 3.2 ypc. Forte’s turf toe may work in McGuire’s favor though, as it could limit Forte during the game. McGuire appears to be the best bet to pick up a big enough volume to exploit the matchup but it remains a risky proposition and his upside will be limited with Forte taking away work.
Other tagged players: Matt Forte, Elijah McGuire
Schefter late-night reports part two: Jeremy Maclin (questionable) to be a game-time decision, will have an exam early Sunday; Matt Bryant (questionable) expected to play despite Q tag
Maclin is expected to have an exam early Sunday and will be a game-time call, but fortunately the Ravens 1 PM kickoff should leave us with ample notice as to his status. Joe Flacco hasn’t thrown for more than 235 yards in a game this season so the Baltimore passing attack isn’t all that enticing, but Mike Wallace would see a bump in value if Maclin was ruled out and Breshad Perriman, Chris Matthews and Michael Campanaro could all see a little extra time on the field. As for Bryant, he’s expected to kick against Miami and makes for an excellent target on FanDuel in a home (indoor) match-up where Atlanta shouldn’t struggle to find scoring opportunities.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Matt Bryant, Mike Wallace
Schefter late-night reports: Derek Carr, Mike Williams will play; Ty Montgomery expected to play and not be limited
As has been the case over the last few days, Derek Carr is fully expected to suit up against the Chargers and will give the Raiders offense a much-needed boost after a surprisingly slow start to the season for nearly all parts of the Oakland offense. Amari Cooper might be as cheap as he’ll be all season this weekend ($6,100 on FanDuel, $5,000 on DraftKings) and his floor/ceiling both rise with Carr on the field. Cooper has been dreadful to start the year with a bevy of drops plus the injury to Carr, but was at least his most heavily targeted receiver the first four weeks (31 in four games compared to 16 for Michael Crabtree in three games). Chargers rookie WR Mike Williams will make his NFL debut on the other sideline, although it’s still a little unclear exactly what role he’ll play with Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin all still healthy. It’s likely that he’ll be eased in early on and is best left untouched for DFS purposes this weekend. With Ty Montgomery expected to take on his normal workload against Minnesota, Aaron Jones is no longer a potential value target and the match-up with a stout Minnesota run defense plus Montgomery’s ailing ribs make him a GPP-only selection.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Derek Carr, Mike Williams, Amari Cooper, Aaron Jones This Mid-Tier WR Is Too Cheap
Adam Thielen is flat out priced too cheaply for the volume he is due to see in Week 6. With Stefon Diggs already ruled out, Case Keenum is going to be locked on to Thielen all game. Thielen has already been the slightly preferred pass catcher by Minnesota quarterbacks this season, with 40 targets (almost 25% market share) compared to 36 for Diggs (approximately 22% market share). And now with Diggs out, that market share is almost assuredly going to tick up this weekend for Thielen. Green Bay is not a defense we should be afraid to target either, as they are ranked 19th in pass defense DVOA. At $6,500 on FanDuel and $6,000 on DraftKings, he just makes way too much sense for cash game roster construction. He is an easy plug-and-play for me in Week 6.
A Must Play At Wide Receiver In Cash Games
As good as DeAndre Hopkins has been this year, I still think he is too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Considering he is Deshaun Watson’s favorite target (by far) and is facing a pass-funnel defense, he is an easy lock in cash games for me in Week 6. For starters, the best way to attack the Browns is through the air. They rank third in rush defense DVOA but 31st in pass defense DVOA. And Hopkins just gets absolutely peppered with targets from Watson. Since Week 2 (when Watson took over the job full time), Hopkins has the highest market share of targets in the league at 37.5%. Furthermore, he also has the second most targets overall in that timespan (45). And as I said earlier, he is still underpriced everywhere. For instance, at only $8,000 on FanDuel, he is priced as only the sixth most expensive wide receiver. And with the abundance of value at running back on DraftKings, he is extremely easy to fit in over there as well. Hopkins is by far my favorite receiver on the slate and will be a fixture in all of my cash game lineups.
This Guy Should Be Your Cash Game QB On FanDuel
The cash game conversation at quarterback in Week 6, for me, revolves around Deshaun Watson and Drew Brees. The pricing on the two sites makes it easy to get your Watson exposure on FanDuel while getting your Brees exposure on DraftKings. The $700 savings down to Watson on FanDuel actually goes a long way in terms of roster construction, allowing you to fit in players at every other position that we should have a lot of confidence in. The matchup against this pass-funnel Browns defense is all sorts of appealing too. They rank third in rush defense DVOA, while almost bringing up the rear in pass defense DVOA (ranked 31st). That has resulted in the Browns giving up the fourth most FanDuel points per game this season to the quarterback position. Watson’s rushing ability raises his floor even more, and he should be able to carve up the Browns through the air. He is going to be my guy in cash games on FanDuel for Week 6.
Willie Snead and LT Terron Armstead questionable for Week 6
Snead has been dealing with a lingering hamstring issue since the start of his suspension but he’s reportedly recovered and is expected to play against the Lions this weekend. Given the uncertainty surrounding his role, Snead is probably best seen as a risky tournament option – he told the media earlier this week that he was being eased back in. With Brandin Cooks in New England, Snead is expected to become the second receiving option behind Michael Thomas in the coming weeks. Newcomer Tedd Ginn hasn’t done much to dissuade that from happening with his 11/146/1 line through four games and current slot receiver Brandon Coleman picked up just one target in each of the past two outings. Against Detroit, Snead will battle Quandre Diggs in the slot. Following a dismal 2016 campaign, Diggs has reemerged with a strong 84.6 PFF cover grade (13th). While he did well against Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals in Week 1, allowing just one completions on five targets, he got burned by Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu in the slot for two scores in Week 3. Overall, he’s allowing a 114.9 passer rating but he hasn’t been targeted much inside (14) which has enabled him to produce the sixth-best yards per cover snap rate (0.68). Quarterback Drew Brees shouldn’t shy away from his second receiver on Sunday though, he could really test Diggs. He targeted Snead 6.9 times per game in 2016 even with Cooks still around and PFF accredited the receiver with the 13th-best catch rate among all receivers (75%). Armstead hasn’t played yet this season. He was questionable heading into Week 4’s game with the Dolphins and now that he’s had another week to rehab, he should be ready for a Week 6 return. Even without Armstead, who earned a solid 83.6 PFF grade in 2016, the Saints offensive line has excelled. They’re currently first in adjusted sack rate (per FO), third in pass-blocking efficiency (per PFF), and seventh in adjusted line yards (4.48 per FO).
Other tagged players: New Orleans Saints Buccaneers LB Kwon Alexander and S Keith Tandy ruled out for Week 6; LB Lavonte David and S T.J. Ward questionable
Tampa Bay could get two of these four guys back for their game against the Cardinals. David’s presence would help shore up the middle of the field and receiving RB coverage which was picked apart by Tom Brady last week through a mix of Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola in the slot and James White out of the backfield. White posted a 7/57/0 line while Hogan and Amendola combined for a 15/132/1 line from the slot. Surely, the Cardinals would try a similar approach with Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Ellington if the Bucs are without David again. If David returns, Carson Palmer could look to pick on Vernon Hargreaves, PFF’s 101st cover corner, on the outside. He’ll see John Brown and Jaron Brown the most, which sets up a great matchup for the receivers. Hargreaves has allowed the fifth-highest passer rating (127.6), second-most receiving yards (354), and fourth-most yards per cover snap (2.02). John is getting healthier and he supplanted Jaron as the number two receiver again in Week 5, out-snapping him 48 to 36. He was only able to haul in two of his seven targets, but one was for a touchdown. He’ll look to build on that against the Bucs on Sunday.
Other tagged players: Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Ellington, Jaron Brown, John Brown 49ers released LB NaVorro Bowman
With Reuben Foster ready to make his return, San Francisco decided to release Bowman.
Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski removed from injury report, will play Week 6, Rex Burkhead questionable, CB Eric Rowe ruled out
Brady and Gronk are ready to take on the Jets this weekend. New York currently sits at 18th in pass DVOA (per FO) and 12th in passing yards allowed per game (210) despite having a very friendly strength of schedule in terms of opposing offenses – three of their opponents – the Bills, Dolphins, and Browns – are 23rd or lower in offense DVOA. Meanwhile, the Patriots are second in offense DVOA and lead the league with 419.4 yards per game. Not surprisingly, the Patriots are third on the board with an implied total of 28.5 points. Brady should be able to do plenty of damage for as long as the game is relatively close. CB Rowe won’t return this weekend which will leave safety Patrick Chung in the slot corner role often, although New England has used him all over the field. Out of Chung’s 72 snaps in Week 5, he rolled up inside for 39, was an outside corner for nine, and was lined up as a linebacker for 13 (per PFF). He’ll primarily be responsible for tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who’s working his way into a featured role on the Jets offense. Last week, he racked up eight targets and turned them into a 6/29/1 line. Chung has earned the 23rd-best cover grade from PFF among safeties, presenting much a tougher challenge for ASJ than the Browns. Jonathan Jones will work inside as well – he took 23 snaps in the slot last week – and he should see Jeremy Kerley quite a bit. Although he’s limited receivers to a 50% catch rate this season, he’s allowed the fourth-most yards per cover snap in the slot (2.35, per PFF).
Other tagged players: Rob Gronkowski, Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots Matt Stafford, Kenny Golladay, and Dwayne Washington questionable for Week 6
Stafford is expected to play after getting in full practices all week. The quarterback, who’s dealing with an ankle injury, likely has a questionable tag in case he has a setback this weekend ahead of their game with the Saints. New Orleans has shaken up their secondary following their poor start to the season and may be better than it seems. Rookie Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley are now the starting corners and limiting receivers to 0.74 and 0.94 yards per cover snap (per PFF), respectively. Since jumping into the starting lineup in Week 3, Crawley has impressively limited opposing quarterbacks to a 31.3 passer rating even though he’s been picked on the most – he now leads the Saints corners in targets despite only playing in half their games. He’s notably earned PFF’s fourth-best cover grade among CBs. If Golladay is able to return, he and Marvin Jones will have his work cut out for him with these guys on the outside. New Orleans weak point remains in the slot where they roll up safety Kenny Vaccaro – who replaced DeVante Harris following his disastrous Week 1 performance. He’s allowing a 121.3 rating when in the slot and the seventh-worst covers snaps per reception rate (8.7). That sets up a great spot for Golden Tate, who’s leading the team in targets (40, 23.1%) and receiving yards (267). This game currently has the highest total of the week at 50 points and the Lions have an implied total of 23 as +4.0 road dogs.
Other tagged players: Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate, Dwayne Washington Ty Montgomery, CB Davon House, RT Bryan Bulaga, LT David Bakhtiari questionable for Week 6, CB Kevin King doubtful, S Morgan Burnett ruled out
Green Bay continues to battle injuries. With Burnett out and King not expected to play, Quinten Rollins will probably be forced into slot coverage. That sets up a great spot for Adam Thielen as Rollins has allowed a reception all 15 times he’s been targeted when lined up inside this season. Thielen should see an increased market share with Stefon Diggs sidelined. Burnett’s absence will also help tight end Kyle Rudolph, another player set to benefit from Diggs’ injury. While the Packers rank 12th in TE DVOA and have given up the second-fewest PPR points to the position, the safety had a big influence on that success. If Montgomery plays, he’s expected to be limited. He’s still hobbled up by his fractured ribs and Aaron Jones was excellent last week against the Cowboys, racking up 134 yards on 20 touches. With a bye coming up next week, Green Bay could still opt to sit Montgomery and give him more time to heal. If they do that, Jones will become an appealing value play given his expected volume – he out-snapped Jamaal Willaims 53-2 last week.
Long-Shot GPP Play for Week 6
I hate cheap tight ends more than I usually this week, but I will take a shot or two on Coby Fleener. I like his price and the matchup, but I’m not too crazy about the targets he’s receiving. That said, I do love the red zone work Fleener gets from Drew Brees in their time together, but it still doesn’t feel all that exciting to go here, especially when you factor in likely high ownership. Thing is, tight ends are the way to attack Detroit, as they tend to funnel everything to the middle with that zone D. In (primarily easy) matchups so far, the Lions are still 24th in fantasy points allowed to the position, and Fleener is a better TE than most they’ve faced. My interest here will depend entirely on projected ownership, because I see the potential upside in this situation, but I don’t want to lock in a chalky Fleener, even in a good spot.
Derek Carr removed from injury report, will play Week 6
CB Gareon Conley has been ruled out while CB David Amerson is questionable. Carr will return from a one-game absence to face a Chargers pass defense that’s limited opponents to 190 passing yards per game, the fourth-best rate in the league. However, they’ve given up the tenth-most touchdowns through the air (8) and the 11th-highest passer rating (96.8). The total yards may be low due to their poor rushing defense. They’ve seen the second-most rushing attempts this year as teams continue to attack them on the ground and they’ve conceded the third-most yards per carry (5.0.). Even the Giants, who have posted the third-fewest rushing yards per game (77.8), were able to pile up 152 yards and 6.1 ypc. Oakland hasn’t had a prolific run game either, ranking 23rd with 90.6 rushing yards per game while Marshawn Lynch has delivered 3.4 ypc and their offensive line ranks 18th with 4.08 adjusted line yards (per FO). Perhaps the Chargers defense will allow Lynch to return to form but volume will remain an issue for the veteran running back. Oakland was expected to lean on him in Week 5 with E.J. Manuel under center but he only managed to pick up 12 carries as game flow got away from them (and their offense only ran 54 plays). If their ground game continues to struggle in this spot, Carr could find success through the air. Casey Hayward may shadow Michael Crabtree over Amari Cooper but the cornerback has given up two touchdowns (both against the Giants), 277 yards, a 107.2 passer rating, and 1.59 yards per cover snap (58th, per PFF) – although he has successfully limited receivers to a 53.3% catch rate. Cooper has had some well-document efficiency problems, catching just 13-of-33 targets and he could pair off with Trevor Williams who’s permitted a 50% catch rate while posting the sixth-fewest yards per cover snap (0.53), fifth-best cover snaps per reception rate (18.3), and held quarterbacks to a 63.9 rating. Even so, Cooper is plenty affordable at his current $5.0k price tag on DraftKings, so he’s worth further consideration. The Chargers rank 17th in TE DVOA and the tough corner battles could open up some opportunities for Jared Cook, who’s currently second on the team in targets (31, 20.4%) and receiving yards (195).
Other tagged players: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook Rams LB Mark Barron and S Lamarcus Joyner questionable for Week 6
Joyner hasn’t played since exiting Week 3 with a hamstring injury but he could return this weekend. Barron was limited Friday with a knee issue and is questionable for their matchup with the Jaguars. Barron is PFF’s 33rd LB this season and he’s graded well in coverage (14th) despite allowing the ninth-most receiving yards among linebackers. His absence would help Leonard Fournette this weekend, who’s been very active in the passing game, racking up the third-most receptions, targets, and yards on the team. Fournette should find success on the ground against a defensive line that’s better at pass-rushing than run defense – they’re currently 21st in adjusted line yards (4.28). That sets up a favorable matchup for the run-first Jaguars who are passing at the lowest rate in the NFL (44.8%). Overall, the Rams have allowed the second-most PPR points to RBs – workhorse Fournette is in a great spot.
Other tagged players: Leonard Fournette