DFS Alerts
Tons of Potential at a Bare Bones Price
There is no part of this matchup that really makes Watkins an incredible play. The Jags are probably the top pass defense in the league, this is a tough CB matchup, and Watkins is a wildly inconsistent WR. But, did you see this price? Watkins is priced in the basement for this matchup, yet he is one of the more talented wide receivers in the league. He has the chance to break out for a huge game in virtually any matchup with his ability to stretch the ball down the field. The Jags have allowed the 11th-most pass plays of 40+ yards on the season, while the Rams offense has the 10th most offensively. You have a chance here to select someone who just put up a goose egg and is therefore going to be close to completely unowned, someone who has put up a 30+ point fantasy game twice in his last seven and is near minimum priced. This is strictly a high-risk GPP play, but there are a lot of scenarios in which this ends up the top play on the entire slate.
Bears released Deonte Thompson, promoted Tanner Gentry to active roster
After leading the Bears wideouts in snaps for two straight weeks, Thompson saw the field for just seven plays in Week 5. Chicago has decided to move on from the receiver, elevating Gentry to their active roster. He’ll provide depth at the position and won’t be on the fantasy radar. Markus Wheaton ended up with the most plays on Monday night (46) but he continued to be terribly inefficient, catching 1-of-4 passes. It was his first reception of the season despite playing three games and being targeted nine times. He was followed by Tre McBride, who hauled in his only target but had another big reception called back on a penalty. Alleged WR1 Kendall Wright continued to see limited action, playing just 54.1% of the snaps, although he he still led the team with 46 yards and four catches. Rookie quarterback put plenty of faith in tight end Zach Miller, looking his way a team-high seven times, and connecting with him for a 20-yard touchdown. Chicago’s passing game is pretty much a mess but Miller may be the best fantasy target as he presents a safety valve for the rookie quarterback.
Other tagged players: Tanner Gentry, Zach Miller
Devin Funchess (knee) is practicing Wednesday
Funchess is fully expected to play tomorrow night against the Eagles. He’s been targeted at least eight times for three straight weeks and he’s scored three times over the past two as quarterback Cam Newton came back to life. He’ll have a very nice matchup with Eagles CB Jalen Mills this week. Mills has been targeted more than any corner this year (54) and he’s rewarded quarterbacks with 354 yards (second-most), three touchdowns (fourth-most), and a 94.2 rating.
An Underpriced and Incredibly Consistent TE
Brate is having a great season so far, yet no one seems to be talking about him too much. Over his last 19 games he has 11 TDs, he had a season high nine-targets last week, and he is averaging 50+ yards per game this season. People don’t quite seem to understand that Brate is a very good TE, and this is reflected by his price on DK at $3,900. He may have had high ownership last week, but that is mostly due to the fact that he was playing in the Thursday night game and everyone loaded up on it. This week he draws a matchup against Arizona, who has been known for being tough on opposing tight ends, when in actuality, the Cardinals are ranked in the bottom third of the league in DVOA vs. the position. The Cards are middle of the pack for fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but they haven’t faced a great one so far this season, other than Ertz, who they gave up 18 DK points to. In this matchup, Patrick Peterson should shadow Mike Evans, who is a target machine, and that should force a lot of targets to the rest of the team. Basically, it’s time for Brate to go ham. He is far and away my favorite point-per-dollar TE on the slate, and I don’t expect him to come in at high ownership.
Lions DT Haloti Ngata (biceps) placed on IR
Ngata had picked up PFF’s 16th-best pass-rushing grade among interior defenders this season and posted the ninth-best pass-rushing productivity rate over the past two weeks. His absence should help Drew Brees this weekend, who’s already playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Saints OL tops Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate metric (2.8%) and checks in as Pro Football Focus’ third-best unit in pass-blocking efficiency.
Willie Snead (hamstring) will return Week 6
Snead has been dealing with a lingering hamstring issue since the start of his suspension. He rejoined the team two weeks ago ahead of their matchup with the Dolphins but was unable to suit up due to the issue. Coach Sean Payton said he’s fully recovered and he’ll be ready to get back on the field against the Lions this weekend. Given the uncertainty surrounding his role, Snead is probably best seen as a risky tournament option. With Brandin Cooks in New England, Snead is expected to be the second receiver behind Michael Thomas. Newcomer Tedd Ginn hasn’t done much to dissuade that from happening with his 11/146/1 line through four games and current slot receiver Brandon Coleman picked up just one target in each of the past two outings. Against Detroit, Snead will battle Quandre Diggs in the slot. Following a dismal 2016 campaign, Diggs has reemerged with a strong 84.6 PFF cover grade (13th). While he did well against Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals in Week 1, allowing just one completions on five targets, he got burned by Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu in the slot for two scores in Week 3. Overall, he’s allowing a 114.9 passer rating but he hasn’t been targeted much inside (14) which has enabled him to produce the sixth-best yards per cover snap rate (0.68). Quarterback Drew Brees shouldn’t shy away from his second receiver on Sunday though, he could really test Diggs. He targeted Snead 6.9 times per game in 2016 even with Cooks still around and PFF accredited the receiver with the 13th-best catch rate among all receivers (75%).
Kevin Hogan will start ahead of DeShone Kizer in Week 6
Coach Hue Jackson has decided to move Kizer, the league-leader in turnovers (11), to the bench this weekend when the Browns visit the Texans. Hogan came in for Kizer in the second half of their Week 5 game against the Jets and was impressive, completing 16-of-19 passes for 194 yards and two scores. He may have a better spot than it appears against the ailing Texans defense that will be without two of their best defensive players and pass-rushers, J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Houston currently ranks 11th in pass DVOA while they’ve allowed the sixth-most yards per attempt (7.9), seventh-most passing touchdowns (9), and tenth-best passer rating (97.5) through five weeks. Of course, Hogan won’t have many weapons to work with on the Browns’ thin offense. Kenny Britt may be inactive again, leaving Ricardo Louis, Rashard Higgins, Kasen Williams, and Bryce Treggs at receiver. Running back Duke Johnson caught a late touchdown from Hogan last week and continues to lead the team in receiving yards (270). Hogan has shown some chemistry with tight end David Njoku – they connected for a 3/3/48/1 line in the second half. Njoku has now caught two of his three touchdown balls from Hogan, nabbing one in each game the quarterback attempted at least 11 throws. The Texans defense ranks sixth in TE DVOA but they’re allowing the fourth-most yards (72.8) and the eighth-most PPR points to the position (14.88 per game).
Other tagged players: DeShone Kizer, David Njoku, Duke Johnson, Kenny Britt, Ricardo Louis, Rashard Higgins, Bryce Treggs, Kasen Williams High Price, Low Ownership, Big Upside?
I really don’t love the price point for Kirk Cousins this week (especially on DraftKings). However, that will only serve to keep his ownership low, and he does draw a very favorable matchup against the 49ers, who rank poorly in most pass defense metrics. The Redskins also get an advantage at home coming out of a bye week, and I like their offense to post a breakout game of 30+ points in Week 6. Cousins, of course, should be a big part of the fun.
Double Down on a Breakout
Last week’s unsung hero could very well be at it again in Week 6. Kittle is a fantastic athlete with great measurables, and the 49ers are comfortable using him as a primary piece in their offense. That shouldn’t change heading into a favorable matchup with the Redskins, who have struggled against the tight end position so far this season. Even though Kittle’s price is a bit higher this week, he should still be worth it. He is running a lot of routes and should be brimming with confidence after a big game. The matchup is icing on the cake.
A 200 Yard Day in the Works?
This is a fantastic “get right” spot for Julio Jones. He has battled a few minor injuries in the early going but should be healthy coming out of Atlanta’s Week 5 bye. He also draws a fantastic matchup against a Dolphins team that ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass and against #1 wide receivers. If his ownership is lower because of his early season struggles, use that to your advantage. Jones is one of my favorite plays of the week.
Don't Throw Me Away Like That!
There are all sorts of shiny new running back options this week. Jerick McKinnon is available. Elijah McGuire says hello. Alvin Kamara is available. One of them is sure to be this week’s Aaron Jones! Well, who says that this week’s Aaron Jones can’t be… Aaron Jones? He played on 53 of 60 offensive snaps last week and was absolutely fantastic with 125 yards on 19 carries. Jones is certainly worth a look as a GPP option if Ty Montgomery is sidelined again this week. Keep an eye on Montgomery’s status as we get closer to Sunday.
A Disappointing Game Last Week Really Shouldn't Scare You
Rolling with Abdullah did not work out well last week, but that’s not going to deter me this week. Last week’s matchup was pretty good for Abdullah, and he fell short of expectation, but this week’s matchup is on another level. The Saints are in the bottom half of the league in terms of run DVOA, but the thing that really stands out to me is that 30%+ of opposing team targets go to the RB. Game flow wasn’t in Abdullah’s favor much of last week, as the Lions were coming from behind for the far majority of the game. He had around 10 rushes and one catch in the first half, so had the game been closer, I think we would have seen closer to his Week 4 numbers (20 rushes and three catches). While Theo Riddick will likely get the third down plays and Zach Zenner will likely get goal line carries, Abdullah is the real lead back in this offense. In a high-paced, high-scoring game that is expected to be close, we can expect Abdullah to have a similar workload to Weeks 2 and 4. This matchup is not without risk, but the risk isn’t as high as most people think, and all it takes is one long run from Abdullah for him to make value at these cheap prices.
Stefon Diggs day-to-day with a groin injury
Diggs exited Minnesota’s Week 5 game with a groin injury but was able to return. It’s reportedly a strain and coach Mike Zimmer said they’ll know more tomorrow when the Vikings practice. He should be considered questionable for Week 6. If he can’t go, it’ll provide target boosts for Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Green Bay has been tough on tight ends this season, limiting them to the second-fewest PPR points per game (7.74) without allowing a single touchdown to the position. With Laquon Treadwell and Michael Floyd representing untrustworthy options at receiver, Thielen should see plenty of opportunities from Case Keenum, especially so if he’s elevated to the number one receiver role. Heading into Week 5, the Packers were 21st in WR1 DVOA while allowing the seventh-most passes to top wideouts (8.8, per FO). Last Sunday, Dez Bryant managed a decent 5/8/52/1 line against them. The Packers tried playing Damarious Randall in the slot last week which would present a favorable matchup for slot receiver Thielen – the corner has permitted a 116.8 passer rating (67th among corners) and 1.55 yards per cover snap (59th, per PFF). However, injuries forced him to the outside, which left Quinten Rollins inside the most and he allowed a completion all five times he was targeted for 41 yards and a score (in just 15 coverage snaps). Unless Green Bay moves Morgan Burnett back into the nickel corner role – who would have the second-best yards per cover snap when in slot coverage if he qualified (0.26) – Thielen could have a field day. If they don’t, Burnett could be on Rudolph most of the afternoon.
Other tagged players: Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph Target this WR in Week 6
It’s pretty darn close the perfect storm of a scenario for Hopkins this week. He gets a matchup against the team that is ranked last in the league in DVOA vs WR1s, and on the season, Hopkins has only had one week in which he did not reach 12 targets, He is second in the entire league in targets, the Texans have a 28 implied team total, and he’s priced highly enough that he shouldn’t garner a lot of ownership. If that isn’t enough for you, Watson has the highest TD rate per pass of all QBs in the league, and Cleveland gives up the most TDs per pass attempt in the league (while facing a lackluster schedule so far this season). Hopkins has the second most TDs in the league with five and is by far the best RZ target for the Texans. The stud wideout has no real downside in this matchup, other than the fact that this game could be a blowout (however, if Hogan starts, I expect it to be a lot closer than the Vegas line seems to think, especially with JJ Watt injured). If you’re paying up for WR this week, Hopkins is the way to go. He may be the best raw points play on the entire slate (sorry, Julio and Antonio).
Pete Carroll: Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls have "equal status"; C.J. Prosise expected to return for Week 7
The Seahawks have a bye this week but when they return, their backfield will continue to be very unappealing from a fantasy perspective. Unless one of these guys breaks ahead of the pack, they’ll continue to operate as a full-blown committee with Lacy and Rawls splitting early-down work and Prosise acting as the primary passing-down back. In their first full game without Chris Carson, Lacy and Rawls combined for 17 carries for 39 yards. J.D McKissic ended up as the top fantasy performer among Seattle’s backfield, scoring 6.6 PPR points, although he did it all through the air after he failed to pick up a yard on two attempts. It’s probably best to avoid this situation when they take on the Giants next week.
As reported by: ESPN Other tagged players: Thomas Rawls, C.J. Prosise