DFS Alerts

5 Analytics That Suggest This RB is in Play

For Week 2, I am going position by position to support a key take from Rotogrinders content with additional metrics/analytics. At the RB position, I will pile on the support for Javorius Allen as a value priced tournament pivot. 1) Allen saw 50% of snaps and rushes Week 1. The narrative is that Woodhead got hurt, and that Allen would have never been a part of the game sans this fact. However, Allen took his first carry with 9:17 left in the first AKA 5 minutes before Woodhead got hurt on their very first drive. Allen had been described as “the Ravens’ most effective back” this summer, and there is a strong chance the fantasy community is underestimating how much the coaches like him. I believe the 50% snap share is not a fluke. 2) Calling back to stat #1, Allen needs either volume or passing game work to reach his potential for DFS. He only accumulated 4 “yards created” after his first evaded tackle on 21 carries (according to PlayerProfiler.com). He’s no Barry Sanders. 3) Calling back to point 2, the last time Buck Allen mattered for fantasy was 2015. This was a season in which he accumulated the 11th most passing targets amongst RBs (without a full season of primary duty) 4) In 2016, the Browns allowed the second most fantasy points per game to the RB position 5) The Browns played a ton of Cover 2 defense Week 1 (tied for most with DAL, according to Sports Info Solutions Inc). They also played the 9th most snaps in Cover 2 in 2016. Joe Flacco threw to his running back on 29.67% of targets vs. Cover 2 in 2016. —- Look, I’m not saying Buck Allen is the best possible salary saving running back in Week 2 overall. What I am saying is that he’ll carry substantially lower ownership as compared to similarly priced players, and supports a range of outcomes that includes smashing his salary based expectation. He’s an interesting add to your GPP player pool if you want to join me in this catastrophe.

5 Analytics That Suggest This QB is in Play

For Week 2, I am going position by position to support a key take from Rotogrinders content with additional metrics/analytics. At the QB position, I will pile on the support for Philip Rivers as a value priced QB. 1) The Miami Dolphins allowed the 7th most fantasy points per attempt to QB in 2016, and their new DC is an in house hire. 2) According to Sports Info Solutions Inc., the most popular defensive call for Miami was charted as Cover 1. Rivers was second in the NFL in Air Yards vs. Cover 1 coverage in 2016. 3) According to PlayerProfiler.com, Rivers had the highest “Production Premium” of any QB in Week 1 – which tells us he was efficient against a much better secondary than Miami projects. 4) Rivers pass attempt distance was just 6.1 yards/att week 1 (PlayerProfiler.com). We can logically attribute this to the top caliber secondary and need to get the ball out quickly vs. Denver. I will take the over on 6.1 yards of target depth per attempt this week. 5) The Chargers pass offense ranked 9th in Pass DVOA Week 1 according to Football Outsiders. —- I expect to find a home for Rivers in my portfolio. These statistics support the qualitative analysis gathered from watching the game, and provide confidence that we will see even greater efficiency and productivity in his Week 2 matchup.

Richard Sherman (hamstring) didn't practice again Thursday

It’s the second straight absence for Sherman this week. It’s not clear when he suffered the injury as he played every defensive snap for Seattle in Week 1 and hasn’t practiced this week. We’ll find out more when Seattle practices tomorrow. If he ends up being sidelined for their matchup with the 49ers, Marquise Goodwin would be the biggest beneficiary.

George Kittle (hamstring, calf) returned to full practice Thursday, Jimmie Ward (hamstring) remained limited

Kittle was on the field for nearly all of San Francisco’s offensive plays in Week 1, picking up 54-of-57 snaps, and he ran a route 87.5% of the time. He finished the game with a 5/27/0 line on six targets. Although he should be all set to play this weekend, it’s probably not the best time to target him. The 49ers will visit the Seahawks and their stout pass defense this weekend and currently have an implied total of 14 points, the lowest on the board. On the other side of the ball, Seattle has an implied total of 28 points. Free safety Jimmie Ward, who sat out their Week 1 loss to the Panthers, remains limited in practice but coach Kyle Shanahan is optimistic he can return to the field. His presence would be an upgrade for their defense.

Ryan Griffin, Stephen Anderson, Bruce Ellington, and Alfred Blue officially inactive Thursday night

Griffin, Anderson, and Ellington are all dealing with concussions while Blue is sidelined with an ankle sprain. Starting right guard Jeff Allen (ankle) is also inactive, C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion) was placed on the IR this week, and Brian Cushing was suspended for ten games for violating the NFL’s PED policy. Greg Mancz, an 18-game starter in 2016 who earned a 79.9 PFF grade, will replace Allen on the line. With Blue sidelined, D’Onta Foreman will backup Lamar Miller and he’s expected to pick up a bigger workload than last week. That won’t make him viable in DFS but could have a negative impact on Miller’s upside. At tight end, Houston promoted rookie Evan Baylis from the practice squad with the other three out with concussions. It’s a lot of injuries to be dealing with in Week 2 and it’s clearly not a great situation for rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson to be making his first NFL start. Their offensive line was already poor before Allen’s injury – which played a big part in the ten sacks the offense gave up and Lamar Miller’s 3.8 yards per carry against Jacksonville – and Watson will have to rely on Braxton Miller, Jaelen Strong, and Baylis in the passing game, none of whom have proven to be effective at the NFL level (although it’s Baylis’ first crack). It would be hard for most quarterbacks to succeed with this group, let alone a rookie in his first start. It seems safe to expect DeAndre Hopkins to have an enormous market share but the Bengals will be ready and focused on taking him away. That will make it challenging for Hopkins to be efficient with his opportunities. The game total is currently sitting at 38 points and bettors have been pushed the Bengals’ to 5.5-point favorites after they opened favored by three, leaving Houston with an implied total of 16.25 points.

John Ross (knee) officially active Thursday night

Ross is dealing with a knee sprain that prevented him from playing in Week 1 but he’s active tonight for the Bengals. Due to the injury, he’ll most likely be limited against the Texans, although Tyler Boyd’s scratch indicates his role could be larger than originally anticipated. The rookie receiver impressed at the combine, running an insane 4.22 40-yard dash while placing third at his position in the broad jump (11’1”) and fifth in the vertical jump (37”). After Cincinnati’s horrendous start to the season, they’re hoping Ross, who caught 81 passes for 1,150 yards and 17 scores last year at Washington, can become an impact player for their offense. Baltimore’s defense was able to key in on A.J. Green in Week 1, often doubling him with safety support over the top while leaving the opposite side of the field vulnerable. The Bengals would like Ross to either exploit downfield opportunities that stem from that type of approach or draw attention from defenders to give Green more room to work. Although he’s a very risky fantasy option tonight given his potential limitations and current place on the depth chart, he’s someone to watch in coming weeks as he brings big-play upside to the table. As for Green, he checks in as our WR7 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Although he has a solid individual matchup with Kevin Johnson, which scores a 23.08 in our WR/CB matchup model, he could be facing more double teams, potentially limiting his efficiency. Fighting through tough coverage in the opener, the Bengals’ top receiver caught 5-of-10 targets for 74 scoreless yards.

Tyler Boyd inactive Thursday night

He appears to be a healthy scratch as beat writer Katherine Terrell reports he was warming up with the other receivers prior to being declared inactive. It’s an indication the Bengals are confident in John Ross’ health. The rookie could be in for a larger role than originally anticipated tonight.

UPDATE: Beat writer Jim Owczarski is now reporting Boyd’s scratch is due to hamstring tightness.

Chargers CB Jason Verrett (knee) added to injury report, didn't practice Thursday

The starting cornerback, who’s coming off a torn ACL, may have been given a maintenance day Thursday. We’ll know more when official game statuses are released tomorrow afternoon. Verrett is expected to shadow Kenny Stills on Sunday while Casey Heyward follows Devante Parker. It’s a very tough matchup for both receivers. If Verrett misses the game, it could open up some big plays for Stills and provide him some GPP appeal.

Ravens S Eric Weddle (illness) returned to full practice Thursday

After missing yesterday’s practice with an illness, Weddle got back out there for a full session today. He’s all set for Sunday, which is good news for Baltimore. Weddle was excellent in 2016, forcing five turnovers and earning an elite 93.8 PFF grade as a 16-game starter. The Ravens host DeShone Kizer and the Browns in Week 2

Sam Bradford (knee) limited in Thursday's practice

Bradford is apparently dealing with a knee issue following his big performance Monday night but it doesn’t appear to be a concern and he’s fully expected to play in Week 2. The Vikings quarterback expertly shredded the Saints defense for 346 yards and three touchdowns with an 84.4% completion rate, earning a 95.2 QBR in Week 1. His 7.8-yard average depth of target was 1.2 yards above his 2016 average, although it’ll still would’ve only been tied for 32nd last year, and he attempted the fourth-most balls at least 20 yards downfield (5). He was very efficient on those deep passes too, completing all five for 130 yards – the second-most in Week 1 – and a touchdown. Heading into the regular season he was optimistic about Minnesota’s downfield passing game and he delivered in the opener. Next up, he’ll face the Steelers, who allowed rookie Deshone Keiser to complete 66.7% of his passes for 222 yards, a touchdown, and a pick in his NFL debut.

High Upside Punt Option at TE

Fresh off a 5-54-1 performance against a tough Minnesota defense on Monday Night Football, Fleener should once again be a favorite target of Drew Brees with New England likely selling out to stop Michael Thomas. Despite routinely burning many who rostered him last year, Fleener’s production nearly doubled in home games which coincides with Drew Brees drastic home/road splits. In a game that features two pass-first offenses, Fleener and his very attractive price will certainly be on my radar with many likely opting to take the “wait and see” approach with him.

Intriguing TE Pivot in GPPs

If you’re looking to differentiate your lineup from the masses that will likely be rostering Rob Gronkowski this week, consider Jimmy Graham, who will look to bounce back after a disappointing Week 1. He draws a great matchup against a rebuilding San Francisco defense that ranked 27th in pass DVOA against opposing tight ends last season and hasn’t been able to defend the position since Patrick Willis was leading the defense. Returning home where the Seahawks play their best football, Jimmy Graham should have no problems paying off his steep price in a game Seattle should dominate from start to finish.

Don't Overlook This Veteran WR

Despite hauling in just six of his team-leading 13 targets for 74 yards in last week’s loss to Detroit, Larry Fitzgerald should once again be the focal point of Arizona’s offense moving forward in the absence of David Johnson. He draws a juicy matchup against a hapless Colts defense that was torched for 310 passing yards in Week 1 and will once again be without their only defensive playmaker in Vontae Davis. Not your prototypical WR 1, Fitzgerald spends most of his time lined up in the slot, where he finished second behind Jordy Nelson with 12 targets inside the 10 yard line last season.

Pay Up For This Guy in Week 2

After disappointing last week in a cupcake matchup against Chicago, Jones will look to bounce back this week against a leaky Green Bay defense that ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA against opposing #1 wide receivers last year. With a new offensive coordinator no longer deploying Julio as a decoy in the red zone, look for him to bounce back in Week 2 with a strong performance in a game that should feature plenty of scoring.

Eat The Chalk With This Running Back

If you’re looking for value at running back this week, look no further than Ty Montgomery, who is coming off a solid performance against a stingy Seattle defense and led all running backs in total offensive snaps played. Known more for his work in the passing game, things get much easier for Montgomery in Week 2 where he will be facing an Atlanta defense that ranked 28th in DVOA against the rush, and 25th against receiving backs last season. Montgomery offers cheapest exposure to Aaron Rodgers relative to his upside in a game that has shootout written all over it and should be rostered with confidence, especially in cash games..