DFS Alerts

Vance McDonald (back) didn't practice Thursday

McDonald wasn’t able to practice as he tends to a back injury. If he’s able to play this weekend, he’ll be behind Jesse James, who earned PFF’s fourth-highest tight end grade in Week 1. James was targeted eight times against the Browns, catching six of them for 41 yards and two scores. McDonald, on the other hand, failed to catch his lone target and only saw the field for 19 snaps.

Back To The Well

With a solid, yet unspectacular Week 1 in which he recorded 96 total yards, caught five passes, and rushed for a touchdown, Gurley finds himself in another favorable matchup this week against a Washington defense that ranked 24th in rush defense DVOA last year. With game flow likely on his side throughout much of Sunday’s contest against a Redskins team that will be traveling across the country, look for Gurley to build off of last week’s performance as a safe, moderately priced running back with tremendous upside on a week where the running back position is razor thin.

Expect This QB to Bounce Back

After a disappointing performance against a tough Seahawks defense on Sunday Night Football last week, Tom Brady and the Patriots will look to get back on against a porous New Orleans defense that ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA last year. He won’t be cheap, but with plenty of mouths to feed in an unpredictable offense, paying up for Brady takes the frustration of sacrificing salary at your skill positions in the event the Patriots opt to spread the ball around during this contest, making him a solid overall option to target in a game that should play at a very fast pace.

Chester Rogers (hamstring) limited in Thursday's practice

Rogers has gotten in two limited practice sessions this week after being inactive in Week 1. If he’s able to suit up, he’ll operate behind T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief at receiver, possibly rotating with Kamar Aiken as the number three. He won’t have much fantasy appeal given the current quarterback situation and his place on the depth chart. Indianapolis hasn’t decided whether they’ll start Scott Tolzien or Jacoby Brissett under center. The latter would be an upgrade for Hilton, Moncrief, and tight end Jack Doyle.

Josh Doctson (hamstring) limited in Thursday's practice, could be on snap count Sunday

He was limited Wednesday as well with a tight hamstring. Coach Jay Gruden said Doctson will play Sunday but the injury could limit his snaps. After playing just 20 in Week 1, Doctson isn’t on the fantasy radar yet. Washington played Ryan Grant ahead of him as their WR3, providing him 37 snaps. He attracted six targets, catching four of them for 61 yards. Until Doctson gets healthy, he’ll probably have a similar role in the rotation and Kirk Cousins will continue to look for Terrelle Pryor downfield. The newcomer led the squad with 11 targets but he only caught six for 66 yards. There may have been some chemistry issues between him and Cousins or early-season jitters as they narrowly missed on several big plays, including a 50-yard bomb Pryor dropped in the end zone. Although he didn’t turn in a massive fantasy score, Pryor demonstrated his huge upside potential. Not only was he ninth in the league in average air yards per target (16.3) – and topped all receivers who were targeted more than seven times – he accounted for a whopping 45.18% of his team’s total air yards, which ranked fourth, per Next Gen Stats. He has a difficult matchup with Trumaine Johnson this week, so it’s not the best time to target him, but he should still pick up plenty of air yards and is always a threat for a big touchdown play.

T.J. Yeldon (hamstring) had another full practice Thursday

It’s the second straight full practice for Jacksonville’s third running back. He was inactive in Week 1 but he’s expected to suit up against the Titans this weekend. Rookie Leonard Fournette looked excellent in Week 1 and seems to have already established himself as their workhorse back. His immediate backup Chris Ivory also played well with his limited opportunities, picking up 53 yards on ten carries That means Yeldon is at best a change of pace option and won’t have any fantasy appeal. Fournette tallied 29 touches for 124 yards and a score in his pro debut against one of the best front sevens in the league. HIs volume was definitely aided by game flow but he has a better matchup on against the Titans in Week 2. He projects as our RB8.

Jordan Howard (shoulder) and Markus Wheaton (finger) limited in practice Wednesday

Cornerback Prince Amukamara (ankle) and guard Kyle Long (ankle) were also limited Thursday. Both players missed the first game but appear to be on track to return for their Week 2 matchup with Tampa Bay. If he plays, Amukamara, the top cornerback on the team, will have a difficult task ahead of him defending Mike Evans. In holding Julio Jones to a 4/66/0 line, Chicago extended their success against opposing top receivers from last season. According to Football Outsiders, they held WR1s to the second-fewest receptions per game last year (6.9). At the same time, they allowed WR2s the third-most catches (7.5). In Week 1, WR2 Mohamed Sanu led the Falcons with nine targets and six receptions. These trends make DeSean Jackson an appealing GPP pivot option off of Evans. On the offensive side of the ball, Josh Bellamy (ankle) was also limited but coach John Fox said he “should be fine.” They’re completely decimated at receiver, so they’ll need Bellamy and Wheaton active if at all possible. Kendall Wright will now operate as their top receiver but Glennon may continue to favor high-percentage passes and checkdowns to tight ends and running backs. Last week, 65% of his targets went towards those positions. A season ago, Tampa Bay ranked 26th in DVOA against receiving running backs, which bodes well for Howard and Cohen. Howard has been limited all week but it appears he’ll be able to suit up Sunday. Following Cohen’s breakout performance with 113 yards and eight receptions, it’s almost certain the rookie has carved out a decent timeshare in the backfield and may be the preferred receiving option over Howard. The starter Howard should out-snap and out-touch Cohen as he did in Week 1, although it may not be by much.

John Brown (quad) and Jermaine Gresham (ribs) not expected to practice Thursday

Beat writer Darren Urban reported that it doesn’t look like those two or guard Mike Iupati (triceps) would be participating in Thursday’s session as none of them were present to the portion of practice open to the media. Brown’s quad injury continues to linger. He played through it in Week 1 and picked up nine targets, so it’s possible Arizona is just being cautious with their number two receiver. Now that David Johnson has been placed on the IR, 7.5 targets per game will open up for the receivers and some of them could come Brown’s way. Arizona will need Brown to return to his 2015 form as a big playmaker to have success on the field. The receiver had a down year in 2016 as he battled health issues and it’s not clear if his current ailment isn’t overly serious, although it is a little concerning he didn’t return to practice today. Last season, he only caught 4-of-14 targets at least 20 yards downfield for 91 yards. A year prior, he hauled in eight deep passes and turned them into 379 yards. Although Brown failed to catch in his lone deep target against the Lions, he should get more opportunities downfield this week against an awful Colts secondary if he suits up. The Cardinals may struggle to run the ball without DJ, which could lead them to a higher passing volume than expected game flow implies. They’re currently 7.5-point favorites with an implied total of 25.75 points.

Terrance Williams (ankle) and Orlando Scandrick (hand) won't practice Thursday

Neither player was able to participate Wednesday either. Williams led the team with 68 receiving yards against the Giants in Week 1 as Janoris Jenkins shut down Dez Bryant in shadow coverage. This week, Bryant won’t face a shadow and should match up with Bradley Roby a decent amount in sets with at least three receivers. Roby earned a poor 36.7 PFF game-grade in Week 1 and finished with a 48.7 in 2016. However, in terms of limiting fantasy production, he was effective, permitting just 0.22 fantasy points per route defended. Dallas faced a tough set of cornerbacks last week, which encouraged Dak Prescott to target Jason Witten a team-high nine times and led to Ezekiel Elliott setting a career-high with five catches. A similar approach may be taken by the second-year quarterback this week. Scandrick just had surgery on Monday to repair a broken hand but head coach Jason Garrett won’t rule him out for Week 2. According to ESPN’s Todd Archer, DeMarco Murray had a similar surgery in 2014 and didn’t miss a single game. He added that his game status will depend on whether the stitches have healed well enough, so he’s shaping up to be a game-time decision.

Danny Amendola (concussion, knee) and Dont'a Hightower (knee) won't practice Thursday

It’s the second straight practice they’ve missed. Amendola, who also showed up on the injury report this week with a knee issue, put up a solid 6/100/0 line on seven targets against the Chiefs in Week 1 prior to exiting in the fourth quarter with a concussion. He’ll need to pass through the concussion protocol in order to play in Week 2 but considering his history of head injuries, he may be closer to the doubtful side of things. Plus, as beat writer Jeff Howe notes, it’s been over nine years since a Patriots player missed a week of practice and played in the game. If Amendola and Hightower don’t return tomorrow, they’ll likely be inactive come Sunday. Newly-acquired Phillip Dorsett will step into the number three role if Amendola misses time. Chris Hogan and Brandin Cooks would likely be the biggest beneficiaries. Of course, Cooks has the revenge game narrative in his favor this week as he returns to New Orleans for what’s expected to be a high scoring affair. The game total has been pushed to 56 points after opening at 53.5 as bettors pound the over. With a 6.5-point spread in New England’s favor, they have an implied total of 31.25 points. After seeing Sam Bradford tear up the Saints on Monday night, Tom Brady and his pass-catchers will undoubtedly be popular options in DFS this week.

Week 2 is a New World Order for this Hulkamaniac

If you didn’t know a thing about the quality of the New Orleans Saints defenders, you would think Adam Theilen is a god. So is Sam Bradford. Stefon Diggs, well he looked like Randy Moss out there last week in terms of production. They made the Vikings look pretty damn unstoppable, and is the primary reason I am excited for Chris “Hollywood” Hogan this week. According to Sports Info Solutions Inc, here are the passer ratings in coverage last week for Saints DBs: Lattimore 118.75, P.J. Williams 118.75, Kenny Vaccaro 145.83, De’Vante Harris 154.86, Marcus Williams 87.5. That’s not very good, and they were not very good last year either. So we have established that the Saints are bad. Hopefully their matchup isn’t too baaaa…OH MY GOD IT’S TOM BRADY. If you need me to explain why Tom Brady is good, consult the record books. Chris Hogan underwhelmed last week, and could be forced to take on some of the underneath work if Amendola misses. Even if he doesn’t, he is a prime time target on deep balls and in the red zone. His status as having a top matchup this week in unquestionable. His price is not up to par with the quality of this matchup either. If you fail to get some action on the Patriots this week, I don’t know what to tell you. This is a SMASH spot in all caps.

This WR is a Versatile Matchup Piece in a Good Spot

The Eagles traded for Ronald Darby to help bolster a questionable secondary unit. Welp. Darby is now out with injury, and they are faced with covering the explosive Tyreke Hill with a group of middle to low graded corners. Jalen Mills projects via alignment to see the most snaps on Hill. Last year he allowed a QB rating of 91.6 and was the best of the available Eagles in coverage. Unfortunately, he is still a mismatch to the efficient Hill. Hill had a Week 1 Production Premium of 84.4, which is picking up right where he left off in 2016 where he ranked 12th in the league in that statistic. NFL NextGen Stats tell us that no receiver in Week 1 created more separation at target than Hill (4.7 yards), and we should not be expecting anyone on the Eagles to do better than the talented group in NE in this regard. This situation gets worse when you consider that Hill moved all around the formation, and we’ll be seeing the Chiefs scheme to get him on lesser cornerbacks This is a spot where it is hard for me to see where the Eagles will be able to take him away. He will be involved in the game plan again, and there should be volume to go with his efficiency. I consider him likely to exceed his median projection for the week.

I View This Matchup as Half-Full

I like Cooper Kupp in DFS this week, particularly on PPR sites. The Redskins showed us that they are willing to keep their CBs parked on one side of the field last week. Norman played 98.55% of snaps on the right WR. Bashaud Breeland played 96.97% on the left wide receiver. That left Kendall Fuller with (you guessed it) 97.62% of snaps in the slot. Very nice to see predictable coverage like this for my purposes. It allows me to project Kupp (who played 0% of snaps on the outside) as the primary matchup. Kupp shined in his debut against the horrendous Colts, registering a production premium of 71.2 (a massive number). Fuller allowed a QB rating of 118.8 in his coverage in 2016, and according to Sports Info Solutions Inc. he saw 5 targets into his coverage last week. With Breeland and Norman steering targets away more so than attracting them, Fuller becomes the de facto path of least resistance. When you consider Todd Gurley struggled to 2.2 yards per carry against the Colts last week despite being 13th best in “Yards Created” per PlayerProfiler.com, then you have to think the Redskins are going to give the Rams blocking similar fits. Until the Rams line proves to me they can create space, I consider Todd Gurley as a guy who has to do it himself. So what if he can’t do it himself? Ladies and Gentleman, that is the situation where Cooper Kupp will destroy his expectations against a weak defender. I expect that scenario to be more likely than not this week. Run it back with Kupp, especially on DraftKings where it is full PPR. He’s clearly got chemistry with Goff.

Ravens placed Danny Woodhead (hamstring) on IR Thursday, promoted Jeremy Langford from practice squad

With only two running backs on the active roster, Baltimore was expected to promote Langford or Alex Collins from the practice squad. Langford isn’t expected to make much of an impact as Terrance West and Buck Allen will split the lion’s share of the running back duties. Woodhead’s injury should provide a nice boost to Allen, who will likely take over the passing-down role vacated by Woodhead. He’ll compete for carries with West as well. He out-snapped the starter 33 to 27 against the Bengals and out-carried him 21 to 19, although West out-rushed him 80 to 71 and scored a touchdown. At his bargain price, our projection model highlights Allen as a great value on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Odell Beckham (ankle) returned to practice Thursday

It’s his first practice since August 21st. Although we won’t know if he’s limited today until they release a practice report this afternoon, it’s a positive sign either way. According to Ian Rapoport, the Giants are optimistic he’ll play Monday night. If he suits up, he’ll return to a tough individual matchup with Darius Slay, who could potentially shadow Beckham when he’s lined up outside. Last year, he stuck with Beckham for eight of nine passing plays before suffering an injury. Slay was solid in Week 1; he was targeted six times and only permitted two catches for nine yards. As a team, Detroit’s pass defense remains poor, which may lead Eli Manning to target Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram more than he normally would – all three are potential GPP pivot options in this matchup. Although Quandre Diggs played well last Sunday, shockingly earning PFF’s highest cornerback grade, our WR/CB matchup tool provides Shepard the seventh-highest score (35.71). Without Beckham on the field last week, he was targeted eight times and efficiently hauled in seven for 44 yards. Shepard was the only receiver to get a look inside the 20 and he played every single offensive snap. Although he would lose plays with Beckham active, the Giants used three receivers on 41 of their 56 offensive snaps last week.

UPDATE: Beckham was officially limited Thursday, as expected.