10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for 4-28-2016
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, April 28, 2016.
1. Kenta Maeda has had quite the start to his Major League Baseball career. In each of his first four games, he’s gone 6+ innings and allowed 5 or fewer hits, and he’s allowed a single earned run during that stretch (this solo shot to the Giants’ Joe Panik). He’s the only player in Major League Baseball history to start his career with four such games while allowing only one earned run.
2. On Thursday, Maeda and the Dodgers host the Miami Marlins. It’s a dream matchup for the Japanese import. Since the start of 2015, the Marlins have led the league in both ground ball rate (57.1%) and soft contact rate (21.1%). Maeda has generated a ton of soft contact so far this year – his 84.08 average exit velocity allowed is best in the league among pitchers with a minimum of 50 batted balls, as is his 80.89 mph exit velocity on grounders. In his home park, Maeda represents one of the safest plays on Thursday’s slate. That is, provided he can navigate Giancarlo Stanton better than Clayton Kershaw did on Tuesday.
3. If you’re going to roster Kris Bryant, it’s best to do it when he’s at home. His .315 ISO at Wrigley Field ranks second in MLB only to Albert Pujols .318 home ISO among active players (minimum 100 PAs). For comparison, Bryant has a career ISO of .129 on the road. Twenty-three of his 30 career home runs have been hit at home, and 19 of those have been against righty pitchers. Now, the 24.5% HR/FB rate at home certainly plays a part (compared to 7.3% on the road)…but nevertheless, in a home matchup against Taylor Jungmann on Thursday, Bryant makes for an interesting GPP pivot away from…
4. Nolan Arenado, who smacked his ninth home run of the season last night, a solo bomb off of Pittsburgh lefty Jon Niese. After last year, it seemed Arenado had reached his ceiling as a hitter. But this year, he’s been even better, doubling his walk rate (5.1% in 2015, 10.5% in 2016) and cutting his strikeout rate by more than half (16.5% in 2015, 7.0% in 2016), all while adding 64 points of isolated power (.287 in 2015, .351 in 2016). What’s more, his BABIP of .206 says he’s been getting a bit unlucky when he’s put the ball in play. Sure, it’s early enough that these numbers are pretty fluid, but if you’re fading Arenado in cash games when he’s at Coors, you might be overthinking it.
5. Jose Fernandez has allowed a .351 wOBA to lefties since the start of 2015 – that’s tied with Jhoulys Chacin for third-worst on this slate. Facing a Dodgers team that is extremely patient (9.2 BB% ranks second in MLB) and extremely left-handed, coupled with his being on the road (where his ERA more than doubles compared to when he’s in his home park), Fernandez has his work cut out for him on Thursday. It’s probably telling that he’s opened as an underdog, and with Jake Arrieta now on the slate, it’ll be tough to pay up for Fernandez.
6. On Thursday, Matt Carpenter and the Cardinals take on Rubby de la Rosa, who, in addition to being inept against lefties (.402 wOBA allowed since last year), has displayed a serious ground ball lean in 2016, with 58.3% of balls put in play being grounders. Since the start of 2015, Matt Carpenter leads all players with a .474 OBP against ground ball pitchers. And he’s got upside in this matchup, too – 15 of Carpenter’s 31 HRs during that span have come off ground ball pitchers, which is tied with Jose Bautista and Nelson Cruz for the league lead in that category.
7. BvP data, like any data, can often be misleading. But when you have a situation as extreme as Adam Jones recording a total of one hit (and a single, at that) in 33 at-bats against John Danks (for a hilarious slash line of .030/.059/.030), that information becomes useful. There are lots of reasons to fade Adam Jones on Thursday (the .281 OBP, the three extra-base hits on the year, the possibly lingering oblique injury). The BvP, in this case, seals the deal.
8. Prior to his 15-K performance in his last start, Tanner Roark had started 16 games from the start of the 2015 season onward. In those 16 starts, Roark notched 4 or fewer strikeouts 13 times.
9. Tyler Wilson has a 3.9 K% against left-handed hitters (25.2 innings pitched). Since the start of 2015, that’s the lowest in the majors. This means Melky Cabrera, whose 7.1 K% against righties ranks seventh in MLB and 89.3% contact rate ranks 12th, will go virtually unowned given all the attention given to Coors. Nobody likes to play Melky, and it’s true, he probably has limited GPP upside (only three extra-base hits against 18 singles versus RHP this year), but for a cash game play, you could do much worse.
10. When you’re setting your Pirates stack on Thursday (and you will, no matter how much you try to fight it), make absolutely, positively sure you don’t leave out David Freese. Not because he’s good at baseball or anything, but because it’s his birthday! In six career birthday games, Freese has racked up nine hits in 23 at-bats (.391 average), and he’s only struck out four times (a not awful 16.0% strikeout rate). Or you could just use him because he’ll be hitting in the #3 spot against a gas can in Coors. Whatever you need to tell yourself – just roster him.