10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 28th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Sunday, August 28th.
1. Madison Bumgarner has a 29.4% strikeout rate and has allowed a .229 wOBA at home this season. Since FanGraphs began tracking home/road wOBA numbers in 2002, the only qualified pitchers with above a 29.0% K rate and below a .230 wOBA at home besides Bumgarner are Max Scherzer (2016) and Clayton Kershaw (2015, 2014). He’s in a pristine matchup against the Braves (75 wRC+ against LHP this year), a matchup he’s dominated over the years, as…
2. Dating back to 2013, Bumgarner has reached nine or more strikeouts in five of the seven times he’s faced the Braves. No other pitcher has struck out 9+ Braves more than three times during that span. The main slate is somewhat weak at pitcher today, but if you’re playing the afternoon slate, Bumgarner is a cash game lock.
3. The highest wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters on the slate doesn’t belong to a lefty – it belongs to reverse-splits righty Kevin Gausman (.365). Gausman’s 2.06 HR/9 to righties this year also tops the slate. A month or so ago, I would’ve written that Gausman is a great play because the Yankees are a team devoid of any right-handed power bats. Then this happened. Even if he is able to navigate Babe Ruth Gary Sanchez, Gausman is a dangerous play in Yankee Stadium given the 42.8% fly balls he’s allowed to lefties this year.
4. Chris Archer 2.61 home ERA is 12th-best in MLB. His 5.97 road ERA ranks 101st (and that’s out of 112 of 112 qualified starters…yikes). All the indicators – the 21.5% HR/FB on the road (nearly double his home HR/FB), the .338 BABIP (compared to .277 at Tropicana Field), the fact that his home and road xFIP only differ by .018 (3.29 at home, 3.47 on the road) – suggest that he’s not that much worse of a pitcher on the road. But…is it worth testing that out against the Astros? On the early slate, pitching is so weak that he’s in play simply because of strikeout upside (he’s fanned at least six batters in every game since the All-Star break), but you’ll probably feel a little queasy when you click his name.
5. Vince Velasquez has a 42.1% hard hit rate since the All-Star break – that’s third-highest in MLB among qualified starters. It might be time to stop avoiding hitters against Velasquez, and the Mets feature several lefties (Neil Walker, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson) who could do damage to Velasquez (.351 wOBA versus lefties this year).
6. Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers have faced 12 left-handed starters, and only twice have they recorded more than three earned runs (Patrick Corbin at Chase Field and weirdly, Madison Bumgarner). Lefty starters have reached six strikeouts in nine of those 12 games. And, over the entire season, the Dodgers’ .221 batting average against LHP is worst in MLB (when the addition of Carlos Ruiz is seen as an upgrade, you know things are bad). This all bodes well for Jon Lester, who should be far less owned than Madison Bumgarner on the afternoon slate.
7. Over the past 30 days, Eduardo Rodriguez is one of only two players with a K% north of 28.0% and below a .5 HR/9. The other? Jose Fernandez. Rodriguez has a 22.6% hard hit rate over that stretch, as well, a mark that would be third-best in MLB if he had the innings to qualify (he fell just short). This means that the Royals, a team not exactly known for its power, makes for a perfect matchup, as long as you’re playing on a slate that includes the Sunday night game.
8. Joey Votto is batting .444 in the second half of 2016. Let’s assume some regression and say his second-half average drops 40 points, down to .404 for the second half. Here are the players since 1940 who have had a batting average of .404 or better for either half of the season (minimum 300 PA): Ichiro Suzuki (2004), George Brett (1980), and Ted Williams (1941). That’s it. I wrote that Votto was an elite play last night against Zach Godley. Tonight, against Archie Bradley (.409 wOBA to LHB, second-highest in MLB)…what’s a word that means “way better than elite?”
9. Gregory Polanco has a 41.4% hard hit rate over the past 30 days…and a .194 BABIP. He’s the only player in MLB with a 40.0%+ hard hit rate and a BABIP below .200 over that span. His matchup against Milwaukee’s reverse-splits righty Chase Anderson isn’t perfect – Anderson has gotten crushed against righties (.407 wOBA) while holding lefties in check (.292 wOBA) this year. Still, it’s something to monitor moving forward, as Polanco’s luck will change soon.
10. I try my best not to recycle stats in this column, and I’m sure I’ve mentioned this, but the Toronto Blue Jays are facing a ground ball pitcher, and they have the two best power hitters on the planet against ground ball pitchers. And it’s not even close. Edwin Encarnacion (.332) and Jose Bautista (.324) are the only hitters since 2014 with ISOs above .280. Kyle Gibson could be in for a long day.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back on Saturdays and Sundays through the remainder of the MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!