10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, July 20th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, July 20th.
Friday, July 20th
1. Trevor Bauer’s games of 10+ strikeouts by year:
2014 – 1
2015 – 3
2016 – 3
2017 – 2
2018 – 8
That’s right; in 129 career starts prior to this year, Bauer had amassed nine games of 10+ strikeouts, something he’s already done eight times in only 20 starts this year. (And for what it’s worth, one of these games came when he fanned 11 Rangers on April 30th, the same team he faces on Friday). Bauer has entrenched himself with the Scherzers and Sales as one of the elite strikeout pitchers in the game, and there’s no reason to think he’s slowing down anytime soon. On Friday, he faces the Rangers, who strike out at a 25.3 percent rate against righties, fourth-highest in MLB, and hold a .308 wOBA, which ranks 22nd in baseball. It’s July, and it’s Texas, which means it’ll be hot; Bauer could surrender a few runs. Even if he does, he has the longest leash in baseball, as no pitcher in MLB averages more than his 109 pitches per game. Even in a less-than-ideal hitting environment, Bauer is a cash game anchor on Friday.
2. Since the start of 2017, Stephen Strasburg has faced the Atlanta Braves six times; he’s struck out eight or more batters in five of those games (including striking out 10+ on four occasions). Despite Freddie Freeman’s impressive BvP numbers against him (he’s slashing .356/.426/.711 in 45 PA against Strasburg), Strasburg has had the Braves’ number as of late. But wait…it gets better. It’s a birthday game for Strasburg, who turns 30 on Friday! (And we’ll ignore the fact that the only other time Strasburg has pitched on his birthday, back in 2012, he got roughed up for four earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings against, ahem, the Braves). Okay, despite Strasburg’s past success against Atlanta, despite his birthday, this is not an easy matchup for Strasburg, fresh off the DL. However, he did reach 82 pitches in his last rehab outing, and although the Braves will roll out a lefty-heavy lineup, Strasburg has feasted on lefties throughout his career due to his elite changeup (he’s allowed just a .276 wOBA for his career to lefties). The real selling point, though, is his price tag; he’s discounted at DraftKings at just $10,300, which makes him somewhat viable for cash games and very interesting for tournaments.
3. It’s no secret that Danny Duffy has been much better as of late. So just for fun, let’s chop his 20 starts in 2018 down the middle and see what happens:
Over his past 10 starts, Duffy has shaved four runs off his ERA, added strikeouts, and seriously lowered his hard hits, barrels, and home runs allowed. What else does he have to do, DraftKings? Duffy continues to be priced way too low at just $6,100 in a winnable matchup against the Twins, who own a 23.8 percent strikeout rate against lefties, seventh-highest in MLB. Even better, Minnesota is devoid of power against southpaws, with a .127 team ISO that ranks 28th in MLB. The Twins’ lack of power coupled with the homer-suppressing Kauffman Stadium means Duffy is a safe, cheap SP2 option. The fact that he just touched up Minnesota for 26.7 DraftKings points on July 9th says there’s a bit of upside there, as well.
4. Pitchers with a sub-2.63 ERA and a sub-.267 wOBA allowed on the road this year (min. 50 IP): Scherzer, deGrom, Sale, Verlander, Bauer, Cole, and … Marquez? German Marquez has been lights out when away from Coors Field this year, and while an uncharacteristic .236 BABIP won’t hold, it’s time we recognized this is a good pitcher being held back by Coors Field. In nine road games this year, and he’s allowed more than two earned runs just once, and he’s posted 18+ DraftKings points six times. Surprisingly, the D-backs have been woeful against righties this year, posting a .295 wOBA (ranked 26th in MLB), a .157 ISO (ranked 20th), and an 81 wRC+ (ranked 26th) while striking out 24.4 percent of the time, sixth-most in baseball. Marquez is in line for another solid outing on the road, and at just $7,400, he’s a mid-tier arm worth rostering in tournaments.
5. In MLB history, there have been 12 seasons where a qualified pitcher aged 26 or under recorded 11 or more strikeouts per nine innings, and Robbie Ray (26 years old this year) owns two of those seasons, joining Kerry Wood as the only players with multiple seasons of 11 strikeouts per nine before turning 27. Ray is upping the ante this year, posting a career-high 13.59 K/9 through 48 ⅓ innings of work. It’s no secret that Ray is a strikeout phenom, and while the strikeouts are obviously not the entire story (the 47.3% hard-hit rate is equally eye-popping), a pitcher with this type of K upside is always intriguing for DFS purposes. It may be tough to pull the trigger on a guy with a 7.97 home ERA up to this point, but all signs indicate that Chase Field is more of a pitcher’s park than ever this year, and there’s no way Ray continues to be this bad at home. At just $8,800 and in a decent matchup with the Rockies, Ray possesses rare upside in the mid-range at starting pitcher.
6. J.D. Martinez has 51 barrels this year, nine more than second-place Mookie Betts (42); the gap between Martinez and Betts is the same as the gap between Betts (42 barrels) and 15th-place Trevor Story (33 barrels). For a bit more perspective, only nine players in MLB had 51 barrels over the entirety of 2017, and Martinez has done it in the first half. Martinez does his best work against lefties (okay, that’s an understatement, as Martinez is basically Babe Ruth against lefties with a .425 wOBA and .302 ISO against them since 2016), and he faces a mediocre lefty in Matt Boyd on Friday. While Martinez may be the best home run bet on the board on Friday, Mookie Betts may be the best bet for a “jack and a bag” (home run + steal, to coin a Pepsi7 phrase), as Matt Boyd has allowed 13 steals this year, sixth-most by a pitcher in MLB.
7. Manny Machado is one of just two players in MLB this year (joining Lorenzo Cain) with a sub-7.0% strikeout rate to go with a .240 ISO against lefties. Machado has retained his power with the platoon advantage, but he’s drastically cut down his strikeouts from the 16.0 percent of last season. On Friday, he gets a fairly soft landing in his Dodgers debut, as he’ll be in a positive matchup against Brewers lefty Wade Miley (.369 wOBA against righties since 2017). While there may be more optimal plays at the shortstop position, there won’t be a player more fun to click than Machado on Friday.
8. Since 2016, Edwin Encarnacion has a .306 ISO against ground ball pitchers, second-best in MLB (min. 300 PA) behind only Mike Trout. Encarnacion has had his struggles this season from a batting average standpoint, but with 22 home runs, he’s shown that the power is still there. On Friday, he’s reasonably priced at $4,600 against ground ball pitcher Martin Perez, who has always struggled against righties but is taking it to new extremes in a small sample this year (.457 wOBA, 47.3% hard hits, 11.0% strikeout rate). Encarnacion is a great bet to take Perez deep.
9. Bryce Harper has an MLB-worst .500 BABIP on line drives. For context, his career mark entering 2018 was .698, and he’d been at .700 or above in four of the past five seasons before this year. It’s true that Harper is one of the most shifted players in MLB, but you’d think some of these liners would go over the heads of the infielders occasionally. Instead, he’s been the victim of some serious bad luck, despite the fact that he’s posted a career-high 41.1 percent hard-hit rate. Harper is poised for a huge second half, and currently, he’s a tad too cheap at DraftKings at just $4,500. Braves right-hander Anibal Sanchez has been dominant against lefties this year, but he does have a history of giving up homers, and I’m willing to roll the dice on an underpriced Harper. (*Note: This one was particularly hard to write given that Harper just cheated his way to a HR Derby win over one of my favorite players, Kyle Schwarber. But that’s okay. I’m sure he’ll apologize to Schwarber when he’s wearing a Cubs uniform next year).
10. Jake Bauers continues to crush four-seam fastballs, posting a .556 wOBA against the pitch that is best in MLB (min. 25 results). I wrote up Bauers’ numbers against the four-seamer last week, and he went out and homered against Jake Odorizzi (on a four-seamer, of course). I’m doubling down here, as Bauers faces another pitcher who relies heavily his four-seamer, Dan Straily. Straily throws the pitch 52.0 percent of the time, but while he doesn’t throw his four-seamer as often as Odorizzi, but the pitch is much less effective than Odorizzi’s offering. Dating back to 2017, Straily’s four-seam fastball has allowed a .264 ISO, third-worst in MLB over that stretch. While Tropicana Field is far from a hitter’s park, Bauers has the power to hit it out anywhere, and he should go virtually unowned in a positive matchup against Straily. Fire him up in tournaments and hope for another long ball off a fastball that catches too much of the plate.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!