10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 9th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, July 9, 2016.
1. Jon Lester’s line in his last start: 1.1 innings pitched, nine hits, eight earned runs, one walk. Miguel Montero line in the same game: 1.1 innings pitched, three hits, zero earned runs, zero walks. And yes, this is that Miguel Montero, the Cubs catcher, the same guy whose throwing arm is so lethal that he’s allowed an MLB-high 41 stolen bases while throwing out only three base stealers.
2. If you’re playing the early slate, Aaron Sanchez is cash game playable, even despite a seemingly difficult matchup with Detroit. The Tigers are light on lefty bats, and Sanchez has a .256 wOBA (fourth-best on the slate) and slate-high 64.2% ground ball rate to righties (excluding Brandon McCarthy, who only has one start). Plus, against ground ball pitchers in 2016, Detroit ranks 27th in batting average (.231), 30th in on-base percentage (.286), and 25th in slugging (.353). When you factor in that Sanchez is one of two pitchers in MLB (along with Rich Hill) to have 55+ innings against righties and only two home runs, it’s clear that Detroit is a near-perfect matchup for him.
3. Another early slate pitcher in a safe matchup is Carlos Martinez, as he takes on a Brewers team that continues to be hapless against ground ball pitchers – their .593 OPS as a team against ground ball pitchers is the worst since the 1988 Cardinals posted a .592 mark. Plus, their league-leading 26.0 K% against righties elevates Carlos Martinez’s strikeout upside. The Brewers (like Detroit) are righty-heavy, and Martinez (as noted in the “10 Notes” for his last start) has still allowed just one extra-base hit (a double) to a right-handed batter this season.
4. Speaking of doubles, Khris Davis hit his 11th double of the year last night, and unlike home runs, two-baggers have been hard to come by for the Athletics outfielder – he’s the only player in MLB to post twice as many home runs (40) as doubles (16) in the last calendar year.
5. Baseball Reference tracks a stat called Adjusted ERA+, which essentially adjusts a pitcher’s ERA for ballpark and scales it to 100 – if a player is above 100, that indicates that he’s been better than league average. Danny Salazar, with a 199 ERA+, ranks second in MLB in that metric, behind only Clayton Kershaw (220 ERA+). On Saturday, he faces the Yankees, a team that is isn’t dangerous (88 wRC+, ranked 24th in MLB) but is stingy with the strikeouts (18.7 K% vs. RHB, fifth-lowest in MLB). Last night, Corey Kluber showed us (eight Ks in eight innings) that the punchouts are there for elite strikeout pitchers, putting Salazar firmly in play as an SP1 on Saturday.
6. The only thing standing in the way of Salazar being an elite play, though, is Max Scherzer in a prime matchup against the Mets. In 10 career games against the Mets, he’s got a 2.03 ERA (lowest of any team he’s played at least three times), a 6.07 K/BB ratio (second-lowest), a .839 WHIP (lowest), and a 12.3 K/9 (fifth-lowest). And then there’s the fact that he’s struck out more batters (288) than any other pitcher in baseball in the last calendar year.
7. If the Athletics roll out a lefty-heavy lineup against Lance McCullers, he becomes a better play – his 14.5% fly ball rate against lefties is second-best in MLB (min. 20 IP), with only Steven Matz allowing fewer fly balls. Plus, McCullers fans three more lefties than righties per nine for his career (11.43 to 8.23). He’s coming off his best start of the season, a 7-inning, 10-strikeout, and (most importantly) one-walk gem against a tough opponent in Seattle – he joined Trevor Bauer and Rich Hill as the only starters to notch 10 Ks with one or fewer earned against the Mariners.
8. If you’re looking for a high-upside stack outside of Coors, look no further than Baltimore against Nick Tropeano (48.5% fly ball rate, second-highest of the day). The Orioles have crushed fly ball pitchers this year (ranked third in OPS with a .210 ISO that is fifth-highest in MLB), and Manny Machado (12), Mark Trumbo (11), Chris Davis (11), and Adam Jones (10) all rank inside the top 13 in MLB in home runs against fly ball pitchers. In fact, those four players alone have more home runs (44) against fly ball pitchers than 12 entire teams in MLB.
9. In the past calendar year, Chris Davis has hit 50 home runs, more than any player over that span He’s also struck out 221 times, also more than any other player. No player has ever recorded 50+ home runs and 221+ strikeouts over a full regular season, but the player who came closest was…Chris Davis in 2013, when he hit 53 homers and 199 Ks.
10. David Ortiz has 21 home runs and 34 doubles before the All-Star break, and that’s something just two other players in history (Mike Sweeney in 2001, Edgar Martinez in 1996) have accomplished.
Thanks for reading! Stats for this article were pulled from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back tomorrow for another “10 Notes” article for Sunday’s slate, the last one before the All-Star break!