10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 2

This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 2.

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Week 2

1. In the first game of the 2017 NFL season, Tom Brady failed to throw a touchdown pass for just the fifth time in a regular season game since 2014. Here are Brady’s passing touchdown totals in the other four games immediately following those zero-TD games: 3, 4, 3, 4. Brady and the Patriots were embarrassed by the Chiefs last Thursday, and “Angry Brady” should be a thing in Week 2. The matchup couldn’t be better for Brady, as he’ll take on a Saints defense that, in 17 games since the start of last season, has allowed QBs to post 300+ yard, 2+ TD games on eight occasions, more than any other team. While paying down at QB is typically the sharp way to build cash game lineups, locking in points at QB makes some sense with David Johnson out with injury and Le’Veon Bell in a touch matchup against the Vikings (held the Saints RBs to 55 yards on 20 carries for a 2.75 YPC in Week 1). While a number of QBs are in excellent spots this week, Brady seems most likely to have a monster performance and justify his (admittedly) high price tag.

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2. Speaking of the ineptitude of the Saints defense, Sam Bradford carved them up in Week 1 for 346 yards, including eight passes of 20+ yards, the most of any QB on the week. His 12.69 adjusted yards per attempt was the highest of any single game in his career, and during his stint as a Viking, he’s never exceeded 10.52 adjusted yards per attempt in any single game. It’s too early to tell whether Bradford’s willingness to throw downfield was simply due to the cushy matchup or because of a change in Minnesota’s offensive philosophy, but if it continues, it bodes well for Stefon Diggs. Last season, Pittsburgh ranked dead last in DVOA against number 1 receivers, and while they’ve tried to shore up the CB position by adding Joe Haden, it’s worth noting that last year, Haden was the 8th-lowest-rated cornerback at Pro Football Focus.

3. Here are the three quarterbacks, in descending order, with the most games with a 114+ QB rating in their first 48 games in the NFL (min. 28 pass attempts):

Kurt Warner – 8
Dan Marino – 9
Derek Carr – 11

In Week 1 against the Titans, Carr completed 68.75% of his pass attempts for 262 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions for a 114.3 QB rating. Obviously QB rating is a flawed stat, but the fact that his 11 games with a 114+ QB rating is the most of all time does show how efficient he’s been early in his pro career. In Week 2, the Raiders are favored by almost two touchdowns over the tanking New York Jets. The Jets defense is going to be worth picking on all year, and in tournaments, I’m very interested in pairing Carr with…

4. Amari Cooper, who had an NFL-high four red zone targets last week after receiving only 13 all last season (it’s also worth noting that Cooper’s 13 overall targets on Sunday trailed only DeAndre Hopkins, who had 16). Cooper has always had the ability to be an elite receiver in DFS, but what held him back last season was his lack of presence inside the 20. If Carr is going to continue to force the ball to him in the end zone, Cooper should enter the upper echelon of DFS wide receivers sooner rather than later, making him a bargain at his current price point. Against a weak Jets secondary (31st in DVOA against the pass last year), Cooper is a good bet for another touchdown in Week 2, but whether or not he scores, I’ll be keeping a close eye on his red zone usage.

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5. In 2016, Atlanta Falcons allowed running backs to catch 109 passes for 870 yards and six scores, all of which were the most (or tied for the most, in the case of TDs) in the NFL. In 2015, the Atlanta Falcons allowed running backs to catch 118 passes (most in the NFL) for 944 yards (second-most). In Week 1 against the Falcons, the Bears leaned heavily on their running backs in the passing game, with the combo of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen amassing 11 catches, 61 yards, and a score. At this point, it’s safe to say that Atlanta’s tendency to allow running backs to catch passes is a schematic weakness, and it’s one that teams are keying in on. Enter Ty Montgomery, Green Bay running back and former wide receiver, who last week played on 90.24% of snaps for the Packers (most of any RB in the NFL). Montgomery will absolutely be the chalk this matchup, but with a high floor due to the likelihood of his catching several passes, he’s chalk that’s near impossible to fade in cash games.

6. In Week 1, Leonard Fournette became the first Jaguar with 26 carries since Maurice Jones-Drew in 2012, and he became the first player to reach 26 carries in his first NFL game since Mikel Leshoure (remember him?) in 2012. Not only that, Fournette tied for the league lead in red zone carries with seven. Jacksonville spent a high first-round pick on Fournette, they play solid defense, they have a quarterback who is at risk for throwing a pick any time he puts the ball in the air, and they just lost their star receiver for the year. Fournette feels like a lock for 18+ carries, and that’s going to put him in consideration most weeks, including in Week 2 in a winnable matchup against the Titans.

7. Kareem Hunt had a historic NFL debut last Thursday, so but just to illustrate how historic it was, here are a few quick notes:

—He became the first player since Cadillac Williams in 2005 with 148 rushing yards in his NFL debut.

—He became the first running back since Johnny Johnson in 1990 with 98 receiving yards in his NFL debut.

—He became the third running back ever with three touchdowns in his NFL debut (Marshall Faulk in 1994, Billy Sims in 1980).

—He became the first running back ever with 246 yards from scrimmage in his NFL debut; to find another back with 146 yards from scrimmage (100 fewer yards than Hunt, for the less math-inclined) in a pro debut, you have to go all the way back to Adrian Peterson in 2007.

On paper, Hunt has an even better matchup this week (vs. the Eagles, 13th in rush defense DVOA last year) than he did last week (vs. the Patriots, 5th in rush defense DVOA last year). Hunt also has the “running back on a team favored at home” trend working in his favor, as the Chiefs are currently six-point favorites over the Eagles. It will be worth following his projected ownership as Sunday approaches; if the recency bias doesn’t get too out of control, he’s worth playing in cash or tournaments, as he’s got a great shot to have another solid (though probably not historic) performance.

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8. In his last 16 games played, Keenan Allen has recorded 163 targets, 112 receptions, 1,179 yards, and 8 touchdowns. In 2016, only two receivers (Odell Beckham and Mike Evans) matched that target mark, and only six receivers (Beckham, Evans, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, T.Y. Hilton, and Julio Jones) bettered that yardage mark. Nobody had more than 112 receptions last year. Of course, those games for Allen date back to 2015 due to his injury last season. The issue has always been health for Allen, and as long as he’s on the field with Philip Rivers, he’s an excellent cash game play, especially at PPR sites.

9. Last week, Antonio Brown caught all 11 of his targets for 182 yards. The last time a receiver had a 100% catch rate on 11+ targets and 182+ yards was Steve Smith, way back in 2005, and in fact, that was the only other time it’s happened since 1992, when Pro Football Reference started tracking targets. So, Antonio Brown is good. We all know this much. But he’s in a terrible matchup in Week 2, as the Steelers face a Vikings defense is absolutely loaded at cornerback. But, as Pro Football Focus’s Scott Barrett notes, for Brown, cornerback matchup just doesn’t matter. From a game theory perspective, Brown makes a ton of sense for tournaments; he’s the most expensive wideout in a week where Julio Jones has an elite matchup and Brandin Cooks has the revenge narrative, which should lead to much lower than usual ownership.

10. Christian McCaffrey was the dynamic dual-threat weapon that everyone thought he would be in his NFL debut, carrying the ball 13 times while also being targeted 7 times; the last player with 13 carries and 7 targets in his NFL debut was Reggie Bush, in 2005. While McCaffrey’s production wasn’t elite in his first game (just 85 total yards, no TDs and a fumble), it’s certainly encouraging that McCaffrey was on the field for 70.15% of Carolina’s snaps (compared to just 43.28% for backfield mate Jonathan Stewart). Carolina is a seven-point favorite at home, and McCaffrey is very interesting as a low-priced tournament one-off at PPR sites.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!

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About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.