10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 4
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 4.
1. The NFL leader in completion percentage at home since 2014 (minimum 400 pass attempts) isn’t Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers, or Tom Brady. It’s Kirk Cousins, whose 69.4% mark at home just edges out Brees’s 69.3% mark. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Cousins ranks second in the NFL this year (behind, you guessed it, Drew Brees) with 329. He’s only found the endzone on 2.4 percent of his pass attempts, which ranks 27th in the NFL, but against a Cleveland secondary that has allowed multi-touchdown games to Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, and Ryan Tannehill, Cousins seems a sure bet for multiple scores in Week 4.
2. While Cam Newton has been good but not great against the division rival Falcons during his NFL career (222.6 yards per game, 15 TD, 10 INT in 10 games dating back to 2011), he has absolutely owned the Falcons on the ground. Among players who have at least 30 carries against Atlanta since Newton’s rookie year of 2011, Cam has the most rushing yards (510) and the highest yards per carry (7.3), and is tied with Doug Martin for the most rushing touchdowns (6). It also doesn’t hurt that he’s recorded 10+ FanDuel points in 26 straight games dating back to October 30, 2014. No other player has an active streak longer than 19 games.
3. Among non-QB players, the player with the longest active streak of such games is, somewhat surprisingly, Michael Crabtree, who has put up 10+ FanDuel points in six straight games dating back to Week 15 of last season. Crabtree’s Week 4 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, have been stingy against opposing WR2s (just 30.7 yards per game this year), but he’ll likely see a lot of coverage from Shareece Wright, who has allowed the third-most fantasy points per route (0.55) of any cornerback in the NFL.
4. In his first three games as a Detroit Lion, Marvin Jones has 408 receiving yards. Here is the list of other players in the last 10 years with 408 receiving yards before Week 4 in a single season: Antonio Brown (2015), Julio Jones (2015), Wes Welker (2011), Chad Ochocinco (2007). That’s it. The highest yardage total Calvin Johnson ever had in Weeks 1-3 was 369 in 2012. Obviously, I’m not suggesting that Marvin Jones, as a player, is equal to Calvin Johnson (or any of the aforementioned, really). I am suggesting that he has Matthew Stafford’s total trust. After a huge week and against a Bears team that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA, Jones will be as chalky as they come in Week 4.
5. Since 2015, only one wide receiver in the NFL has over 100 receptions and a catch rate above 70 percent – and it’s not Antonio Brown. It’s Larry Fitzgerald, and he’s actually crushing those numbers with 129 receptions and a 72.9 percent catch rate. Fitzgerald, who has played 74 percent of his snaps out of the slot this season, figures to be matched up primarily against the Rams’ Lamarcus Joyner, who has been good this year (74.7 grade at Pro Football Focus, but who is giving up about seven inches to Fitzgerald. That could mean a mismatch for Joyner against Fitzgerald, who leads the NFL in targets (6) and TDs scored (3) within the 10 yard line.
6. No receiver has averaged more yards per game against the Jaguars than T.Y. Hilton’s 89.3 since he entered the league in 2012. And that includes a zero-catch, one-target game in November of 2012. If you take that game out, Hilton’s average jumps to 102 yards per game against Jacksonville. In Week 3, many expected Philip Dorsett to emerge as an outside threat to complement Hilton. But so far, Andrew Luck hasn’t shown any amount of trust in Dorsett, who is is targeted on 10 percent of routes he runs, tied for third-lowest in the NFL. With this game being played in London on Sunday morning, it’s not a part of the main slate at most sites. Still, it’s worth monitoring Dorsett’s usage, as if it remains low, Hilton has a pristine matchup at home against the Bears in Week 5.
7. Ezekiel Elliott is averaging 23.7 rushing attempts per game, which puts him on pace for 379 attempts for the season. Obviously, this pace can’t continue, as the number of rookie running backs throughout NFL history to eclipse 379 yards in their first season is a short one: Eric Dickerson (1983) is the only running back to do it. However, in Week 4, the Cowboys face a 49ers team that plays at the fastest pace in the NFL (24.01 seconds per play), Elliott could be in line for another heavy work load.
8. It’s Week 4, and the NFL leader in rushing yards per game is…LeGarrette Blount, at 99.3 yards per game. I know that rushing yards per game isn’t a flashy stat, but…LeGarrette Blount. Given the uncertainty of the Patriots offense (Jacoby Brissett < Tom Brady), it’s unclear whether they’ll be able to get an early lead on the Bills and turn the game into a “Blount Game.” But if that does happen, Blount should have no trouble finding the endzone, as the Bills defense has allowed five touchdowns to running backs in the past two weeks.
9. Coby Fleener’s 11.8 yards average depth of target is tops among tight ends with at least 10 targets this season. His Week 4 opponent, the Chargers, have allowed 94.0 yards per game to the tight end position, more than any other team in football. This feels like a classic case of “fantasy football and real football are two different things.” Sure, Fleener is not a special player, but in a game with the highest total on the slate, and with San Diego corners Jason Verrett (last year’s highest-graded corner at Pro Football Focus) and Casey Heyward (this year’s second-highest-grade corner) blanketing the Saints’ receivers on the outside, Drew Brees should be looking in Fleener’s direction early and often.
10. Since 2015, there have been 11 games of 12+ receptions and 140+ yards in the entire NFL. Antonio Brown has four of them. He’s in an interesting matchup against a Chiefs team that gave us the most Ryan Fitzpatricky version of Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 3, intercepting him six times, including three in the red zone. But Ben Roethlisberger is not Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the fact that Brown is being discussed as an obvious cash game play despite playing the team ranked first in pass defense DVOA illustrates just how matchup proof he truly is.
“10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to @Humps14 for correctly identifying Shaun Alexander as the answer to last week’s trivia question! If you’re reading this, send me a DM so I can get your RotoGrinders playing cards to you.
On to this week’s trivia. Just like last week, leave your answer (or the name of your favorite obscure football player) in the comments thread below. The first Grinder to correctly answer the question gets the coveted shoutout in next week’s “10 Notes,” as well as the even more coveted pack of RotoGrinders playing cards. High stakes stuff here, guys. Without further adieu, this week’s trivia:
Last week, Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman had 26.9 and 26.7 fantasy points, respectively. What was the last running back combo from the same team to score 20+ fantasy points in the same game?
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, and Pro Football Reference.
Be sure to check back on Thursdays this NFL season for more of “10 Notes”!