10 Notes Sneak Peek: Week 17
Happy Holidays, everyone!
With this being the final edition of the “10 Notes Sneak Peek,” I wanted to extend a thank you to everyone who taken the time to read random thoughts and occasional (sometimes very occasional) insights from someone who hasn’t won a million dollars, or a seat to a live final, or even a GPP (outside of Yahoo GPPs, which is sort of like being named valedictorian at a school with 200 students).
The column started as a result of DraftKings and FanDuel removing Monday Night Football from their main slates, which led to a “dead zone” on Mondays, as little NFL DFS content was available for those wanting to fit in some early preparation for the following week. But it’s grown into a place for me to unload my thoughts about the week in DFS, and I’m grateful for those who have taken the time to read and provide me with feedback.
One of my favorite things about DFS is that, whether or not you have success on a given day, you can immediately start preparing for the next slate, and this column has allowed me to do that. On weeks where I’ve done well, I’ve written from a place of confidence, eager to “keep the momentum going” into the following week. On weeks where I’ve lost money, I’ve written from a place of, to be honest, bitterness, frustrated that a full week of preparation hadn’t yielded the results that I expected. But that’s DFS, and even after losing weeks, it’s been a consolation knowing I’d hear a kind word or two from you all. So, thank you.
Alright. On to football.
All this happened, more or less…
Recapping 10 noteworthy happenings from Week 16.
1. The top DraftKings point scorer for Week 16 wasn’t LeSean McCoy, or Tom Brady, or Le’Veon Bell; it was…Adam Thielen? With a 202-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Packers, Thielen essentially totaled his last month’s worth of production in a single game (47.60 points in Week 16; 45.0 points in Weeks 12-15, including a goose egg in Week 15). Prior to Thielen, only two Vikings had ever posted games of 202+ yards and 2+ scores, and surprisingly, their names are not Randy Moss or Cris Carter; Paul Flatley (1965) and Sammy White (1976) are the two Vikings to do it. Unfortunately, hardly anyone was able to profit from Thielen’s career game (he was 0.4% in FanDuel’s Saturday Millions and 2.1% owned in the DraftKings 1.5 million Front Four Championship).
2. Jay Ajayi had his third 200-yard rushing game, becoming the fourth player in NFL history to eclipse the 200-yard mark three times in a single season; he joins Earl Campbell (who did it four times), Tiki Barber, and O.J. Simpson. Per NFL.com, Ajayi was responsible for 75 of Miami’s 77 yards on their game-winning drive in overtime. New England’s fourth-ranked (DVOA) run defense is on tap for Miami in Week 17.
3. Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson reminded us that really, we should all just play Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson every week. The duo ranked second (Rodgers at 40.18 DK points) and fourth (Nelson at 39.40 DK points), respectively, and they’ve led the Packers to a five-game winning streak that has them controlling their own destiny in a game against the Lions that will decide the NFC North title in Week 17.
4. The Browns won a game, and this event, an NFL team winning a game, was described repeatedly described as a “miracle.” Boy – being a Browns fan must be a dark, dark existence.
5. David Johnson was low-owned in a terrible matchup against a Seattle defense that ranks ranks second in the NFL in run defense DVOA. But David Johnson is a man who does not care about matchups. He scored three touchdowns, leading to 34.6 DraftKings points, a number that paced all running backs in Week 16. It’ll be interesting to see how Arizona deploys Johnson in Week 17 now that they’re out of the playoffs and now that Johnson has little hope of reaching the 1,000/1,000 milestone (1,000 rushing and receiving yards).
6. For the non-David Johnson people of the world, matchups matter. Just ask Blake Bortles, who torched the Titans (for the second time this year), throwing for 325 yards and a score, and even catching a touchdown pass from Marqise Lee (who might be the Jaguars’ best quarterback). Lee joins DeMarco Murray, Dontari Poe, and Doug Baldwin as non-QBs to throw TDs this year. For those who care (and really, you shouldn’t), the all-time leader in touchdown passes for a position other than QB is the great LaDainian Tomlinson, with seven in his career.
7. Antonio Brown went into full beast mode, extending over the goal line while being tackled by three Ravens, scoring the game-winning touchdown and the AFC North crown with nine seconds left to go. The three-man Killer B stack (Ben, Le’Veon, Brown) has been one of the most fun stacks to roster for much of the year, and in Week 16, they combined for 78.36 DraftKings points. In Week 17, they’ve got the elite of elite matchups against the Browns, but it’ll be tough to rely on any of them given that they’ve already locked in a home playoff game.
8. In an event that could seriously shake up the AFC playoffs, Derek Carr went down with a broken fibula, and he’ll miss the rest of the season. Marcus Mariota also broke his leg, and he’s out until next season, as well, though there are fewer DFS implications with his injury given the Titans will not make the playoffs.
9. Odell Beckham, Jr. received 20 targets. In the second half of the season, he’s got 90 targets, which is eight more than second-place Jordy Nelson.
10. Playoff scenarios solidified. The Cowboys clinched home field advantage, the Patriots clinched the #2 seed at worst, the Giants locked themselves into the #5 seed, and the Steelers secured a home game in the Wild Card round, among other stories. Research for Week 17 should begin and end by identifying teams with incentive to play their stars, given that so many teams will be playing in meaningless games next week (ESPN offers a helpful guide to the NFL’s playoff picture entering the final week of the 2016 season). From a game theory perspective, though, it might be worth considering some players who “have nothing to play for,” as ownership will certainly be concentrated on the small number of games with playoff implications.
Looking ahead to Week 17…
First impressions of 10 noteworthy players for Week 17, using DraftKings pricing.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at DET) — $7,700 — The NFC North title is on the line in a division game against the rival Detroit Lions. Rodgers leads the NFL in touchdown passes, and he’s thrown 14 consecutive touchdowns without an interception. Detroit’s pass defense has been stingy as of late, but it still ranks 30th in DVOA for the season. On top of all that, this game won’t be impacted by the elements, as it will be played indoors at Ford Field. Apart from price (he’s the most expensive quarterback at DraftKings), is there a single reason to not play Rodgers in Week 17?
2. Tom Savage, Houston Texans (at TEN) — $5,400 — It’ll take guts to play Savage with so many high-end QBs in elite spots (Rodgers, Drew Brees at Atlanta, Matt Ryan at home versus the Saints, Russell Wilson at San Francisco). But Week 17 is going to be all about finding players who have incentive to play well, since so many teams are out of the playoffs and already in vacation mode. The Texans’ Week 17 game has no relevance in terms of playoff seeding, but the post-Osweiler Texans are tuning up for the playoffs, and Savage is playing for a job. The matchup is pristine, as the Titans allow the third-most fantasy points to QBs (behind only the Browns and Falcons), making Savage an interesting flyer for tournaments next week.
3. Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CLE) — $10,400 — Under normal circumstances, Bell could be priced like Russell Westbrook (around $12.5k) and be worth it. He might even be worth it if he was priced like Clayton Kershaw (around $14k). He’s already dominated in this matchup once this season, scoring 37.1 DraftKings points in game against the Browns in Week 11. But here’s the thing: are the Steelers really going to risk the health of Bell (or Ben, or Brown) when they’ve already locked up a home playoff game? Ideally, we’ll have clarity before Sunday as to Bell’s snap count, but “clarity” doesn’t appear to be a thing in the NFL, as each week we’re gifted with more reminders that coaches lie (this week, it was the news that Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael would be “splitting” carries for Green Bay).
4. Alfred Blue, Houston Texans (at TEN) — $4,300 — We’ve all been here before. If you’ve played fantasy for any amount of time, you’ve been privy to the Alfred Blue Experience, and it’s rarely been an experience worth writing about. But a Lamar Miller injury resulted in Blue carrying the ball 21 times in Week 16, which he converted into 73 yards and a score. Lamar Miller is “not sure” if he’ll play in Week 17, but it seems unlikely given that the Texans’ game with the Titans is of no consequence. This could result in heavy usage for Blue, who is priced affordably at DraftKings.
5. Alex Collins, Seattle Seahawks (at SF) — $4,600 — Collins took over the Seahawks’ lead back role in Week 17 after Thomas Rawls left with a shoulder bruise and didn’t return. Rawls could easily jump back into the starting role in Week 17, making Collins unusable (especially at his elevated price tag). But if Rawls is out (which, to be honest, doesn’t seem super likely since his shoulder injury is listed as just a bruise), you’re getting a feature back against one of the worst run defenses in NFL history in a game where the Seahawks should have the lead and a ton of incentive to run out the clock. Monitor Rawls’s status throughout the week, because if it becomes clear that Collins will see the majority of carries (although, let’s be honest: “clear” isn’t a word in Pete Carroll’s vocabulary), Collins will be an interesting salary-saving option this week.
6. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (vs. NO) — $8,400 — The Saints/Falcons game opened with an absurd 56-point total, and the Falcons can clinch a #2 seed and first-round bye with a win. Matt Ryan should be airing it out against a Saints defense that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA, making Jones one of the few players in Week 17 with the combination of elite upside and something to play for.
7. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (at DET) — $8,100 — Week 17 feels like a “pay up at WR” kind of week. DraftKings has finally adjusted Nelson’s price to reflect his performance, as he’s the fourth-most-expensive receiver on the Week 17 slate. But he still might be a bargain. Nelson is the NFL leader in red zone targets, and it’s not close. He scored two touchdowns against the Lions earlier this year, and he’s Aaron Rodgers most dependable receiver (unless you count dropping three TD catches in two weeks “dependable” – looking at you, Davante Adams). If you haven’t used it yet, I’d like to introduce you to the “lock” button in RotoGrinders’ Lineup Builder tool…
8. Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (at ATL) — $6,900, $6,700 — Thomas was a chalky option in Week 16, and he had a good-not-great game with six catches for 98 yards, and his targets were mostly short, low-upside looks (average depth of target of just 6.4 yards). Cooks was the focal point of the passing attack with a team-leading nine targets for 98 yards. He got the deep looks, posting an average depth of target of 17.3 yards, but he dropped two passes. This early in the week, it’s anyone’s guess as to which of these Saints receivers is the preferred option, but one thing is clear; you’ll want as much of the Saints passing attack as you can get, as the team tries to spoil Atlanta’s home field playoff hopes.
9. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (at SF) — $7,200 — After his big Week 16 performance (13 receptions, 177 yards, 1 TD), Baldwin has been priced up at DraftKings. But he saw 19 targets last week, the second-most of any player in a game this year. Couple that with the fact that Tyler Lockett will be out with injury, and Baldwin should see massive volume again in Week 17. The matchup against San Francisco’s porous secondary (29th in pass defense DVOA). And for the icing on the cake, Baldwin had his best game of the year (10 catches, 164 yards, 1 TD) against the 49ers in Week 3 of this year.
10. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (vs. KC) — $3,800 — Everybody knows the narrative by now: Gates is one touchdown away from tying Tony Gonzalez’s record for most career touchdowns by a tight end, and he’s two touchdowns away from setting the all-time record at 112. Gates led all tight ends with 12 targets in Week 16, and he’s a good bet to repeat that performance, as Philip Rivers is sure to feed Gates as many targets as he can handle. But here’s the rub: the Chiefs know this, too. And, they’ve allowed a total of one touchdowns to the tight end position all year. It’s going to be so much fun rostering Gates. However, his ownership figures to be massive, making him an interesting tournament fade for those who prefer money over fun.
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Thanks for reading! All stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and FootballGuys.com.
Be sure to check out “10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes” for NFL Week 17, which will be published on Thursday or Friday. As always, I’ll be giving out a RotoGrinders t-shirt in the weekly trivia contest, and if you want a head start, follow me on Twitter, where I link to the article as soon as it’s published.
Good luck this week!