2021 NFL Rushing Leader Odds: Best Bets, Sleepers, and Longshots

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-08-30 10:58:01

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Two weeks from Thursday, the 2021 NFL season kicks off. How crazy is that!? It’s the most exciting time of the offseason for football fans, and it’s a perfect time for sports bettors to start making some futures wagers. Whether you like betting on prospective award winners, Super Bowl winners, or stat category leaders, there’s something for everyone on the sportsbooks.

Earlier, I discussed my best bets for the 2021 Passing Yards title. Today I will reveal my best bets, sleepers, and favorite longshot picks for NFL Rushing Leader odds.

Will we see a second-consecutive 2,000-yard rushing season—after Derrick Henry became the first to accomplish the feat since Adrian Peterson in 2012, and the NFL added a 17th game to the regular season? Will Christian McCaffrey take back over the league after an injury-ravaged 2020 season? Only time will tell.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but I do have the ability to systematically break down the odds and reveal my best bets and top value picks for the rushing yard crown. Let’s get to it.

All odds are from BetMGM and DraftKings. All stats are from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, and NFL.com.

NFL Rushing Leader Odds

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (+350)

Not surprisingly, Henry leads the odds boards after winning the rushing yards title two straight years and putting up a redonkulous 2,027 yards last season (470 yards more than his runner-up, Dalvin Cook). A beast among mortals, Henry combines raw power with vision and burst, and the offense around him seems to keep getting better.

Pro Football Focus graded Tennessee’s as the sixth-best run-blocking line in the NFL last season (77.5), and appears to be equally as strong going into 2021. The Titans’ passing game should improve by leaps and bounds, as well. Seven-time Pro Bowler (and two-time All-Pro) Julio Jones now lines up opposite A.J. Brown, in what should instantly become one of the best wide receiver tandems in the sport.

Veteran QB Ryan Tannehill has found himself over the last two seasons in Nashville—going 18-8 since Tennessee acquired him—he might find himself an AFC championship this season with the help of Henry.

Henry is just 27 years old, and he’s shown no signs of wear and tear despite seeing a league-high 378 carries last season and a league-high 303 in 2019. Most RBs would automatically start to decline after that kind of insane season-long usage. But this guy is not ‘most RBs.’ If you’re looking for the best bet to win the rushing crown, look no further than King Henry.

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings (+600); Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (+800)

Cook has been masterful over his past two Pro Bowl seasons, and his average of 111.2 yards per game last year trailed only the aforementioned Henry. The next-best per-game rusher, Cleveland’s Nick Chubb, averaged 22.3 fewer yards (88.9).

Cook features as dynamic a skill set as anyone in recent history, and he benefited greatly from the 2020 emergence of stud rookie receiver Justin Jefferson. I just have trouble fully backing a front runner not named Henry at +600. Plus, Cook has topped out at 14 games in each of his past two seasons, and he plays a much bigger role in the passing game than Henry.

Nick Chubb at +800, behind the best offensive line in football for the second-straight season, seems like a much better value play. Chubb is Cleveland’s rumbling fire, while Kareem Hunt is the pass-catching ice. They work seamlessly together, and brutalize opposing front-sevens to the point of broken pride. Nobody besides Henry breaks off long runs as consistently as Chubb, who had 12 scampers of 20-plus yards. Given the choice of Cook or Chubb, I’ll take Chubb.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers (+900)

Now we’re talking. CMC is the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy football leagues for a reason—he’s the most talented skill player in the game of football. In his last full season (2019), McCaffrey finished with 1,387 rushing yards and 1,005 receiving yards, becoming just the third player in NFL history to record 1,000 yards on the ground and through the air.

Now the 2019 All-Pro likely has his sights set on Comeback Player of the Year honors, as well as a handful of records. Don’t bet the farm on him winning the rushing crown—he’s a hybrid superstar coming off a major injury with a questionable offensive line—but maybe drop a little $25 lottery ticket on him. That turns into $250 if he goes buck wild this season.

Best Sleepers

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (+1000)

I love, love, love this pick, and I can’t wait to pick this guy in my fantasy football draft Sunday. Taylor’s rookie season started slowly in Indy’s Phillip Rivers-led offense, but he finished 2020 with a bang. After netting just 505 rushing yards through his first 10 NFL games, Taylor exploded for 651 yards over his last five contests (averaging 6.74 yards per carry). He logged an incredible 253 yards against the Jags in Week 17, exceeding Henry’s season-high of 250 that same week.

PFF ranks Indy’s offensive line as the second-best in football, led by stud left guard Quenton Nelson. Fellow Pro Bowler Eric Fisher, who signed after eight years at left tackle in Kansas City, also joins the mix after Anthony Castonzo retired. Taylor’s 690 yards before contact (5th in the NFL in 2020)—despite 11 games with under 20 carries, and one game out due to COVID protocols—serves as a testament to his line as well as his vision and speed. His 479 yards after contact speaks to his power.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (+1600)

Here’s another second-year stud who could make some serious noise in 2021. Gibson has an actual NFL-caliber quarterback under center in journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he should have an increased role unless WFT wants to remain committed to mediocrity.

Gibson saw 20 carries just twice in his rookie season, both against division rival Dallas. The first contest in DC, he rushed 20 times for 128 yards. The second, at Dallas, he rushed 20 times for 115 yards. So, he’s fully capable of exploding if given the opportunity. Gibson also caught 36 of his 44 targets last season, and demonstrated his speed and elusiveness in the open field. He’s a great sleeper pick to break out this season.

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens (+2500)

Hey look, a third back in his second year! Many might scoff at this choice, and mutter something about Ravens QB Lamar Jackson being the RB1 in Baltimore. Hey, maybe you’re right. But I know two things: the Ravens can succeed with both LJax and Dobbins running the ball, and Dobbins can dominate defenses if given the totes.

In the first nine games of the 2020 season, Dobbins saw just 57 total carries. In his last six games, he saw 77. With the spike in usage, came a spike in production—the OSU product gathered 495 of his 805 rushing yards in those last six games, averaging 8.7 yards per rush during that span. He also collected eight breakaways of 20-plus yards, tied for third-most among running backs.

You’d think a guy averaging 8.7 yards per carry would be touching the ball 20-25 times a game, right? Wrong. Dobbins saw 15 carries just twice all season, and he eclipsed two targets on just three occasions. My money’s on John Harbaugh and Greg Roman taking their heads out of their butts, and utilizing their stud second-year back a whole lot more. They have nothing to lose, and neither do you with a small wager at +2500.

Quick-hitters: Best Longshots

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (+5000)

What, Drew Brees retires and suddenly Alvin Kamara is chopped liver? Kamara has averaged 5.0 yards per carry on his career, he had seven carries of 20-plus yards last season, and he should receive as many carries as he can handle this year. The four-time Pro Bowler has always been a two-way star, so he’s never reached 1,000 yards on the ground. But he’s also never totaled 200 attempts. I wouldn’t be shocked if the fresh 26-year old ruled the league this season, behind what PFF ranks as the fourth-best O-line.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (+5000)

I know, I’m getting to be a bit much with the second-year backs. But Andy Reid has a history of making backs into workhorses, and the Chiefs revamped offensive line could spell success for CEH. Edwards-Helaire had just three games with 20-plus carries last season, and he averaged 121 yards on 23.6 totes across those three contests. Flesh this kid’s skills out, and he could blow up the league.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (+6600)

Harris broke out in 2020, and he should see an increase in carries per game now that Sony Michel has been traded to the Rams. The Patriots have the third-best offensive line in the NFL according to PFF, and Harris remains almost exclusively a rushing back. He totaled 137 carries for 691 yards in ’20, but saw just seven targets through the air (catching five for 52 yards). This feels like a worthwhile small-money dart throw.
Two weeks from Thursday, the 2021 NFL season kicks off. How crazy is that!? It’s the most exciting time of the offseason for football fans, and it’s a perfect time for sports bettors to start making some futures wagers. Whether you like betting on prospective award winners, Super Bowl winners, or stat category leaders, there’s something for everyone on the sportsbooks.