2021 NFL Passing Leader Odds: Best Bets, Sleepers, and Longshots
As the 2021 NFL season quickly approaches (two weeks from Thursday, everybody!), now seems like a good time to review the Futures bets available at our favorite online sportsbooks. Sites like BetMGM, DraftKings, and PointsBet feature a plethora of Futures odds, including 2021 MVP, Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year, and Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year. You can also bet on your favorite team winning their respective division, conference, or the whole shebang, the Super Bowl.
Today, we will analyze the top bets, sleepers, and longshots for the 2021 Passing Yards leader. Despite two Hall of Fame quarterbacks retiring this offseason, the QB position appears as strong as ever. It’s a passer’s league—with rules in place to protect the pocket, and a ton of depth leaguewide at wide receiver—so this should be a fun one to dive into.
So, without further ado, let’s discuss our favorite bets to accumulate the most passing yards in the 2021 NFL season. Good luck, enjoy the season, and bet responsibly!
All odds are from BetMGM and/or DraftKings. All stats are from Pro Football Reference and NFL.com.
2021 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+325)
Nobody should be surprised Mahomes leads the odds boards for both passing yards and touchdowns—he’s the most talented QB in the league. He’s been a Pro Bowler (three times), an MVP (2018), and a Super Bowl champion and MVP (2020), and he won the passing touchdown title in 2018. He should be considered the odds-on favorite to pace the league in passing yards this season, after missing the crown by 83 yards last year.
Who did Mahomes lose the passing yards title to last season? None other than the Texans’ Deshaun Watson, who finished with 4,823 total yards through the air. Watson also led the NFL in average yards gained per pass attempt (8.9) and average yards gained per completion (12.6). However, he did not lead the world in passing yards per game—that stat category was led by Mahomes’ 316.0, which stood head and shoulders above Watson’s 301.4 yards per game (and 26 yards per game more than the third-highest per-game passer, Tom Brady).
If Mahomes had played in Kansas City’s 16th game, he probably would have won the passing yards title by about 230 yards (Hell, Chad Henne had 218 yards and two TDs in Mahomes’ place Week 17 against the Chargers). Mahomes would have needed just 83 for the crown, and just 260 for his second 5,000-yard season. Only eight players have enjoyed 5,000-yard passing seasons, and Drew Brees remains the only one with multiple (he had five).
Now, of course, a ton of QBs will finish with 5,000 yards due to the league adding a 17th game to the regular season. But the smart money should be on Mahomes to lead the pack. Watson has been dealing with a litany of off-the-field legal issues, and his wide receivers corps might be the worst of his career. Brees is retired, and Brady is friggin’ 44 years old. Mahomes is still in his prime—as are his elite pass-catchers, Tyreek Hill and “(player-popup #travis-kelce)Travis Kelce”:/players/travis-kelce-18314—and he’s coming off a stinging Super Bowl defeat to Brady’s Bucs. Mahomes will be hungry, healthy, and hankering for some records, and I don’t foresee him sitting out the last regular-season game again.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (+550)
Of course, anything can happen. Should Mahomes suffer any kind of injury throughout the season, the Chiefs will be more than cautious with their 10-year, $500 million man. Enter Dak Prescott, who may be a high injury risk, but also offers great rewards at +550.
Look at what Prescott was doing in his first five games last season, before he suffered a brutal compound fracture of his right ankle in the third quarter of a divisional battle with the Giants. A quarter shy of five games, the two-time Pro Bowler had a 68.0 completion percentage, a 99.6 passer rating, a league-leading 7.72 net yards per attempt, and a whopping 1,856 passing yards. Break that last number down to averages and you’re looking at 371.2 yards per game. Extrapolate that 371.2 to a full 16-game season, and you’re looking at nearly 6,000 passing yards.
That’s never been done before, and it probably (or, more like hopefully) will never be done in my lifetime. But 20 years ago, we would have said 371.2 passing yards per game across a five-game stretch would never be done.
Prescott has the talent, he will be as motivated as ever coming back from his injury, and his receiving depth is silly good (Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup. Three-time Pro Bowl running back Ezekiel Elliott can also catch the ball, and stud tight end Blake Jarwin will start the season healthy after a 2020 season-ending injury of his own (ACL tear). If Dak can stay healthy, he’s got as good a chance as anyone to win the passing yards crown. That’s just a pretty big if.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+900)
Here’s my personal favorite of the three ‘Best Bets’ QBs. Allen has improved mightily in every season of his young career, evolving from a gadget mobile quarterback to a bona fide field general. The 2020 Pro Bowl selection led Buffalo to a 13-3 record, and he finished with 4,544 yards to go with his 37 TDs, 69.2 completion percentage, and 107.2 rating. He’s a stud.
Allen has benefited greatly from having the same head coach (Sean McDermott) and offensive coordinator (Brian Daboll) in each of his three years. But the greatest advantage afforded to the burly 25-year old QB was the Bills’ acquisition of Stefon Diggs, who enjoyed a breakout All-Pro campaign in Buffalo. Diggs led the NFL in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535), and he caught 76.5 percent of his 166 targets. Now Allen has Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, and Gabriel Davis at his disposal—it’s not quite the Cowboys’ receiving corps, but it’s also not that far off. Allen has the chops to lead the world in passing yards, as long as things fall his way throughout the season.
Second-Year Sleepers
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (+1200)
Another guy I love, Herbert burst onto the scene after a Chargers medical doctor stabbed Tyrod Taylor in the lung in Game 1 of 2020. Unfortunately for Taylor, Herbert never let him retain the role of LA’s starting QB. For Bolts fans, that was the luckiest lung puncture of all time.
On his way to Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, Herbert amassed 31 touchdowns and 4,336 passing yards across 15 games. That’s 289.1 yards per game, which ranked fourth-best in the NFL behind Mahomes, Watson, and Brady.
The sky is the limit for this kid, as he’s only 23 years old and has never enjoyed a fully-healthy offense until now. Give him Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Jared Cook for 16 games, and production could escalate very quickly for Herbert.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)
Here’s yet another guy who could lead the world in passing yards if he can stay on the field. A little over nine months ago, Burrow tore his ACL and MCL in the 10th game of his rookie season. He finished with 2,688 yards over those 10 games, a pace that would have netted him 4,300-plus yards if he had played the full season.
Now Burrow’s (reportedly) healthy, he’s hungry, and he’s heavily-armed with receiving options. Among his embarrassment of riches, the 24-year old LSU product has super-talented dual-purpose back Joe Mixon, second-year stud receiver Tee Higgins, slot stronghold Tyler Boyd, and first-round rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase. So, yeah, Burrow’s more than a decent dart throw at +2000.
Longshots
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (+4000)
Murray has been more of a mobile threat than an aerial artist throughout his short career, but he’s coming off a Pro Bowl sophomore campaign in which he improved upon his rookie passing yards total by 250 (3722 to 3971). I wouldn’t be surprised if he made a Josh Allen-like jump in his third year, his second full season with perennial All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
At 5-foot-10, 207 (soaking wet), Murray cannot maintain a full career of sprinting away from 240-pound linebackers. I fully expect Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury to improve upon Murray’s pocket awareness, progression-reading, and ball placement and timing this season. The 24-year old logged at least 360 yards in three different 2020 games (one with 406!)—that number could be closer to ten this season. With Arizona online sports betting launching on Sept. 9, the first day of the NFL season, local Cardinals fans won’t have a ton of time bet on their guy.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (+5000)
In his six seasons as a Dolphin, Tannehill became the butt of jokes and the face of mediocrity (42-46). Two seasons into his tenure as a Titan, Tanne is a friggin’ stud (18-8). Of course, he and the Tennessee offense largely have All-Pro running back Derrick Henry to thank, but let’s give credit where credit’s due. This dude has found a home here, and now he has future Hall of Famer Julio Jones lining up on the other side of Pro Bowler A.J. Brown.
I wouldn’t bet on Tannehill winning the yards title—he’s never exceeded 4,208 yards in a season—but crazier things have happened (Jameis Winston was the passing yards leader in 2019, Matt Schaub in 2009). I couldn’t fault Titans fans for tossing a $10 lottery ticket toward Tanne.
Quick-Hitters: Don’t Forget About the Vets
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+900)
He’s 44, but he looks 10 years younger than my 36-year old ass. Screw this guy! Watch him put up 5,500 yards and obliterate the dozens of 20-somethings like he obliterates avocado ice cream.
The Bucs enjoy the fourth-easiest strength of schedule this season—their opponents went 126-145-1 last year, a .465 combined winning percentage—so why the hell not? It’s not like he hasn’t done it before—he led the NFL in passing yards in 2005, 2007, and 2017. If he won the passing yards title this year, he would be the first QB to do so in three different decades. He’s already the first to win Super Bowls in three different decades. Nothing surprises me anymore.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (+1600)
Two months ago, Rodgers was appearing on odds boards for the next host of Jeopardy!. Now, he’s +1600 to lead the NFL in passing yards. I like him better on this list, and I like his chances of success better here than on a syndicated game show. Rodgers still has Davante Adams, one of the most dynamic wide-outs in football. And running back Aaron Jones and tight end Robert Tonyan both offer pass-catching upside at their positions. A $25 makes you $400 if he wins it.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (+3500)
If you went back in time to Week 8 of 2020, Seahawks fans would laugh at you if you told them Wilson would be +3500 to lead the NFL in passing yards in 2021. At the midpoint of last season, Russ had 2,541 passing yards (317.6 yards per game). That’s a pace of 5,082, which exceeds Mahomes’ 5,056-yard 16-game pace.
But alas, Wilson finished last season with just 4,212 passing yards, after netting just 1,671 yards through the air in the second half of the season (208.8 per game). Lots of factors played into seven-time Pro Bowler’s second-half collapse—he was banged up, he had an awful O-line and even worse defense, and he had no stability at the running back position. If Wilson has a more fortunate 2021 luck and health-wise, I could see him taking down the yardage title (and his first MVP). Mr. Unlimited needs a trophy!
Image Credit: Imagn