Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, August 10th
Monday is an extremely quirky day of baseball. Four of the just seven games scheduled take place late on the west coast and I don’t recall another day this season where the left-handed pitchers out-numbered the right-handed ones. If that sounds like an excuse to say something whacky is bound to happen tonight, doesn’t the unexpected happen every night? Heck, it’s getting to the point where you can’t even make John Danks jokes anymore because he just might go outscore Kershaw and then you have to pretend you weren’t joking. So, yeah, that actually happened Friday, but if you remember, we had Danks rated as the highest value of all time when we last spoke. Let’s try to exceed that process with a motley crew tonight.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
Brett Anderson faced 25 batters in his last start. He generated five strikeouts and 11 ground balls because that’s basically what he does. A 66.3 GB% leads the league and a now perfectly round 0.0 Hard-Soft% isn’t too far off the best in the majors either. His strikeout rate sits at exactly 17% now. As mentioned often when his turn comes around, it’s a low ceiling, but a generally decent floor. The opposing team essentially needs a lot of luck when most of the batted balls are weak grounders. The matchup is not as great a spot as he usually finds himself in, but it’s still advantageous against an average offense in a good environment.
Chris Sale has allowed 20 ERs over his last 23.2 IP, but has still struck out 26.1% of the batters he’s faced over that span. That’s not the ridiculous pace he was on for the two months prior, but it’s still the mark of someone with great stuff, as you can see by his SwStr% over the last month below. We’ll take a look at what’s been going on aside from the strikeout rate recently later, but the man still has a -0.3 Hard-Soft% for the season and a 0.0% mark over the last two weeks. It can’t all be that bad. The Angels are a slightly below average offense both on the road and vs LHP, but a park adjustment makes it close to neutral tonight.
Gio Gonzalez has now gone seven straight starts without allowing more than two ERs, but hasn’t seen the sixth inning in any of his last three starts. He seems to run up 100 pitches rather quickly. Though his 12.2 K-BB% for the season is his lowest since his Oakland days and merely average, his ground ball rate is the best of his career and 10 points above his career average. Considering his .347 BABIP and that it hasn’t really allowed him to go deeper into games consistently, he should probably go back to strike outs. It’s not really hurting his estimators, but the defense has been poor and it’s likely impairing his ERA. Something that might make him slightly more interesting tonight is Howie Kendrick potentially joining Justin Turner on the sidelines, taking out two of the Dodgers top RH bats, though they still have a few left. At full strength, the Dodgers are the 2nd best home offense (14.2 HR/FB) and 4th best against LHP (15.1 Hard-Soft%), while also the hottest offense in action today over the last week. With a park adjustment downward, they remain slightly above average.
Ian Kennedy has allowed a HR in 10 straight starts and 16 of 20 this season, but his last four starts have been pretty good when looking at the underlying numbers. He’s gone at least six innings with no fewer than five strikeouts in all four. In fact, the four runs in his last start was the most he’s allowed in 12 starts, so aside from the 19.2 HR/FB, he’s shown some upside and as daily fantasy players, we’ll live with the occasional HR if he’s not putting a lot of other guys on base and generating a decent strikeout rate. With a 15.3 K-BB% for the season, that’s exactly what he’s doing and he has a 24.4 K% at home since last season. The 20.2 Hard-Soft% is a concern and Cincinnati has some power, so they might take him deep, even at Petco, but they’re a terrible road offense. This matchup is still in his favor and he should be able to balance the scales with enough strikeouts. The Reds are the coldest team in action today over the last week (24.0 K%, 5.7 HR/FB) and generally terrible on the road. They park adjust to one of the top matchups tonight.
Johnny Cueto has been mediocre in two Kansas City starts, but against a higher level of competition than he’s used to facing consistently in the NL Central (TOR, DET). He faces a tough Detroit team again tonight, but this is what we’ve been waiting for, his first home start as a Royal, where he’ll be able to take advantage of the park and the defense. Something that may surprise some people though, is that according to Seamhheads.com, Cincinnati has a 1.02 overall park run factor over the last three years, while Kansas City has a 1.04 run factor. There is a huge drop in power numbers though, and that’s where Cueto, with a career 1.29 GB/FB and 9.9 HR/FB should see the benefit, along with the improved outfield defense, although the Reds are a pretty competent defense themselves. Perhaps we shouldn’t over-state it. Detroit is the 2nd best road team and 4th best on the road with just a 7.4 K-BB% over the last week, representing the toughest park adjusted matchup of the day.
Jon Niese has struck out 12 over his last two starts, which ties a two game high for him this year and while his 15.5 K% is now a career low, his 54.8 GB% and 2.17 GB/FB are both a career high. Hopefully, Terry Collins realizes this and puts his best defensive infield behind him tonight, but that’s questionable considering his decision making history. He admittedly still makes lineup decisions based on batting average. Niese has possibly the top park adjusted matchup tonight against a team that strikes out a ton (24.4% on the road, 24.3% vs LHP, and 27.7% over the last week) and are the worst offense in baseball (6.5 HR/FB) vs LHP.
Jonathan Gray might be interesting outside of Colorado in that we don’t yet know if he’s interesting outside of Colorado. We do know that he was the 3rd pick in the draft two years ago. His AA and AAA numbers over the last two years have been just average, but he had a 31.2 K% over his last nine starts before being called up and 13.0 SwStr% in his first start, while generating a 53.8 GB%. As little as a single home start against Seattle tells us, those numbers are encouraging. The Mets are a decent home offense and better lately, but Tampa Bay showed that they can be pitched to and the represent a park adjusted matchup in favor of the pitcher here with a 25.5 K% over the last week.
Matt Shoemaker has struck out 27 of his last 71 batters without allowing a run over 19 innings. The HR rate he struggled with earlier in the season is now a reasonable 12.3 HR/FB with a 16.2 K-BB% not much worse than last season. The one concern might be a 28.6 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks. Even with an offensive bump, he has a decent park adjusted matchup against the 2nd worst home offense (14.6 K-BB%).
Rubby de la Rosa did not allow a HR for only the 2nd time in 10 home starts his last time out, but a 19.2 HR/FB this season and 14.4 HR/FB at home since last season makes him a huge risk, especially as he has yet to reach the K potential in his SwStr rate. A -8.6 Hard-Soft% over his last two starts is encouraging. He has a favorable matchup tonight even with the park adjustment against a bad road offense (15.1 K-BB%, 7.3 HR/FB) and the 2nd worst against RHP. They have a 27.7 K% over the last week.
Vidal Nuno got spanked in his first start of the season in Colorado, but that makes him more interesting today at home. While we have to discount most of his bullpen work, he has shown a nearly average ability to miss bats as a starter with his main issue being HRs in Yankee Stadium and Chase Field. Combine that with a 0.87 GB/FB and 17.0 Hard-Soft% for his career and bad things are going to happen. However, transfer that profile over to Safeco and it projects a lot better because we’d expect the HR rate to decrease. We could say it hasn’t yet, but he faced more than 10% of his batters this year in Colorado last time out with two HRs, so it’s still an unknown quantity at this point. He faces a Baltimore team with some power, but also a 17.2 K-BB% on the road. The park adjust to a matchup strongly in favor of the pitcher here.
Wei-Yin Chen has struggled over his last three outings and might have ended up in the recycle bin on a full day, but we’ll talk about him a little bit today. He’s allowed multiple HRs in five of his last eight starts and not all of those have come at home. His 19.8 K% is a career high and about average, but Camden makes a poor home for his fly ball skill set. Tonight, at least he gets to travel to Safeco. He faces an average offense that’s been hitting the ball well, but park adjusts down to a matchup in his favor tonight. The Mariners strikeout 22.9% of the time at home.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
David Holmberg (.200 BABIP – 79.4 LOB% – 7.1 HR/FB) – It’s only been two starts, but I didn’t want to leave this section blank today. He’s struck out just seven of 45 batters with six walks. He was ranked as Cincinnati’s 19th best prospect by Fangraphs prior to the season with one scout calling his upside “a poor man’s Mark Buerhle”, which doesn’t sound like as much of a compliment as it was probably meant as.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Aaron Harang – A flyball pitcher with occasional control issues in Arizona could spell disaster.
Matt Boyd pitched probably as well as you could ever expect against Kansas City in his last start, not allowing a single HR, but for a guy who has allowed five in 13.2 innings now and a 32.0 Hard-Soft% without any upside in his strikeout rate tonight, there’s not much speculate over here.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | -6.9 | 4.28 | 6.12 | 0.9 | 1.09 | 4.47 | 6.24 | ARI | 94 | 95 | 100 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 24.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 4.8 | 3.33 | 5.76 | 3.22 | 0.89 | 3.78 | 3.77 | WAS | 97 | 94 | 116 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 18.1% | 12.6% | 5.7% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | -6.3 | 2.57 | 6.82 | 1.14 | 1.08 | 2.58 | 2.71 | ANA | 94 | 94 | 82 | 24.8% | 6.7% | 20.2% | 13.8% | 11.0% |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 2.9 | 5.62 | 4.75 | 0.78 | 0.84 | 5.59 | 5.47 | SDG | 88 | 82 | 82 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 18.4% | 11.1% | 7.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -4.5 | 3.63 | 5.88 | 1.6 | 0.89 | 3.54 | 3.45 | LOS | 120 | 111 | 138 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 22.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | -8.6 | 3.61 | 5.85 | 1.04 | 0.84 | 3.53 | 3.45 | CIN | 82 | 93 | 50 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 18.4% | 10.7% | 6.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 10 | 3.29 | 7. | 1.3 | 1.04 | 2.99 | 4.14 | DET | 105 | 107 | 110 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 21.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 3.4 | 3.82 | 6.26 | 1.78 | 0.88 | 3.71 | 2.95 | COL | 87 | 61 | 99 | 22.4% | 5.7% | 21.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | -0.5 | 3.58 | 4. | 7 | 0.88 | 3.58 | NYM | 101 | 91 | 118 | ||||||
| Matt Boyd | DET | 5.4 | 4.53 | 4.4 | 0.62 | 1.04 | 6.35 | KAN | 106 | 97 | 101 | ||||||
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 3 | 3.4 | 5.88 | 0.99 | 1.08 | 3.94 | 2.37 | CHW | 84 | 92 | 90 | 23.0% | 6.1% | 20.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 3.1 | 4 | 5.9 | 1.53 | 1.09 | 3.64 | 4.86 | PHI | 85 | 84 | 92 | 20.1% | 6.8% | 19.6% | 12.6% | 6.9% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | -2.7 | 3.78 | 5.55 | 0.89 | 0.85 | 4.2 | 3.33 | BAL | 93 | 95 | 117 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 18.4% | 16.5% | 7.4% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 7.6 | 3.84 | 5.97 | 1.03 | 0.85 | 4.12 | 4.09 | SEA | 101 | 97 | 129 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 20.3% | 15.3% | 7.9% |
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 18.0% | 7.8% | Road | 15.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 12.0% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.5% | 6.9% | Home | 13.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 5.9% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 30.1% | 5.1% | Home | 31.8% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 7.4% |
| David Holmberg | Reds | 12.4% | 12.4% | Road | 14.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 13.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 22.8% | 8.8% | Road | 23.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 11.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 23.3% | 7.9% | Home | 24.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 3.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 24.1% | 6.5% | Home | 27.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 7.4% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 17.4% | 6.0% | Home | 17.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 3.9% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | 21.1% | 10.5% | Road | L14 Days | 21.1% | 10.5% | ||
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 14.3% | 1.6% | Road | L14 Days | 7.4% | 0.0% | ||
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 22.6% | 5.2% | Road | 19.5% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 6.1% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 18.0% | 7.2% | Home | 19.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 20.3% | 6.7% | Home | 18.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 19.0% | 5.4% | Road | 18.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.7% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.5% | 8.3% | RH | 21.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.8% | 8.0% | LH | 21.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 15.8% | 11.8% |
| Angels | Road | 18.5% | 7.2% | LH | 18.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.2% |
| Padres | Home | 23.2% | 6.0% | LH | 24.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.0% | 5.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.1% | 8.5% | LH | 20.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.9% | 11.4% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 7.2% | RH | 18.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.7% | 7.1% | RH | 19.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.6% | 10.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.4% | 5.8% | LH | 24.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 27.7% | 5.1% |
| Mets | Home | 20.2% | 8.3% | RH | 20.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 25.5% | 7.4% |
| Royals | Home | 14.3% | 6.1% | LH | 14.7% | 5.3% | L7Days | 13.6% | 8.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.5% | 6.9% | RH | 20.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.8% | 5.7% | RH | 19.5% | 5.8% | L7Days | 27.7% | 5.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.5% | 6.3% | LH | 21.9% | 5.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 4.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.9% | 7.8% | LH | 20.5% | 5.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.5% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 22.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | Road | 22.1% | 8.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 15.2% | 11.6% | 3.6% | Home | 16.6% | 13.8% | 1.7% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 19.6% | 10.2% | 11.6% | Home | 19.9% | 11.2% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| David Holmberg | Reds | 17.4% | 14.1% | 6.3% | Road | 16.7% | 17.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 20.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | Road | 17.9% | 9.4% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 21.8% | 12.7% | 8.3% | Home | 23.4% | 15.3% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 11.1% | 5.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 20.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | Home | 18.1% | 12.2% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 21.8% | 10.5% | 6.3% | Home | 23.3% | 11.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | 38.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 38.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 19.2% | 19.2% | 3.8% | Road | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | |||
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 18.8% | 10.7% | 6.9% | Road | 18.5% | 10.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 19.9% | 15.5% | 7.3% | Home | 18.0% | 14.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 18.6% | 11.6% | 8.1% | Home | 18.1% | 12.6% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 21.5% | 12.7% | 10.2% | Road | 18.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 26.3% | 5.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | RH | 21.5% | 10.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.9% | 11.7% | 13.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.3% | 13.3% | 9.8% | LH | 20.1% | 11.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.8% |
| Angels | Road | 17.9% | 11.3% | 9.2% | LH | 17.8% | 11.0% | 10.6% | L7Days | 23.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% |
| Padres | Home | 19.7% | 10.8% | 6.8% | LH | 21.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.1% | 6.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.7% | 14.2% | 8.5% | LH | 22.8% | 11.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 31.1% | 10.6% | 17.0% |
| Reds | Road | 19.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | RH | 20.9% | 10.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 13.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.1% | 12.2% | 7.0% | RH | 21.8% | 10.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.2% | 12.1% | 13.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.6% | 13.0% | 9.4% | LH | 22.1% | 6.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.0% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Mets | Home | 21.6% | 12.4% | 12.0% | RH | 22.8% | 9.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% |
| Royals | Home | 21.2% | 7.4% | 9.1% | LH | 23.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.1% | 4.2% | 12.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.6% | 11.4% | 9.0% | RH | 21.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 12.3% | 9.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.8% | 7.3% | 9.4% | RH | 22.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.4% | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.1% | 11.8% | 11.0% | LH | 21.1% | 11.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.8% | 17.6% | 7.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.7% | 11.8% | 7.8% | LH | 20.6% | 12.7% | 11.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 18.5% | 3.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 15.6% | 8.1% | 1.93 | 8.0% | 9.0% | 0.89 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 17.0% | 7.1% | 2.39 | 12.8% | 6.5% | 1.97 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 32.1% | 15.3% | 2.10 | 27.9% | 14.3% | 1.95 |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 15.6% | 4.5% | 3.47 | 15.6% | 4.5% | 3.47 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.32 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 2.18 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 21.7% | 9.7% | 2.24 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 2.71 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 22.6% | 10.4% | 2.17 | 14.2% | 7.3% | 1.95 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 15.5% | 5.8% | 2.67 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 2.63 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 21.1% | 13.0% | 1.62 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 1.62 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 14.3% | 8.9% | 1.61 | 7.4% | 7.6% | 0.97 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 22.1% | 9.5% | 2.33 | 37.3% | 12.1% | 3.08 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 19.7% | 11.5% | 1.71 | 12.8% | 8.8% | 1.45 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 25.8% | 12.3% | 2.10 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 1.94 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.25 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 2.04 |
Matt Shoemaker – Don’t expect this strikeout barrage to continue at its current clip, but he’s shown a significant increase in SwStr% over the last month, above 11% in each of his last three games.
Rubby de la Rosa is today’s only full season outlier and it gets much worse over the last month. Although the SwStr% drop isn’t nearly as bad as the K% one, there’s still a significant downward move, though he’s been at least at 9.2% in each of his last three starts. As mentioned previously in this space though, Welington Castillo may be the worst framer in baseball (-6.4 RAA) with little improvement from other catchers currently on the roster.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 4.11 | 4.62 | 0.51 | 4.73 | 0.62 | 4.21 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 6.24 | 1.74 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 0.9 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.06 | 3.34 | 0.28 | 3.42 | 0.36 | 3.61 | 0.55 | 2.78 | 3.93 | 1.15 | 3.83 | 1.05 | 4.42 | 1.64 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.52 | 2.41 | -1.11 | 2.49 | -1.03 | 2.51 | -1.01 | 6.16 | 2.76 | -3.4 | 2.83 | -3.33 | 3.13 | -3.03 |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 3.27 | 5.47 | 2.2 | 5.54 | 2.27 | 4.92 | 1.65 | 3.27 | 5.47 | 2.2 | 5.54 | 2.27 | 4.92 | 1.65 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.75 | 3.63 | -0.12 | 3.49 | -0.26 | 3.09 | -0.66 | 2.36 | 3.54 | 1.18 | 3.43 | 1.07 | 2.8 | 0.44 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 4.49 | 3.73 | -0.76 | 3.86 | -0.63 | 5.08 | 0.59 | 3.56 | 3.7 | 0.14 | 3.94 | 0.38 | 4.68 | 1.12 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 2.69 | 3.5 | 0.81 | 3.5 | 0.81 | 3.12 | 0.43 | 3 | 4.97 | 1.97 | 4.76 | 1.76 | 3.2 | 0.2 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 3.51 | 4.04 | 0.53 | 3.93 | 0.42 | 4.11 | 0.6 | 3.26 | 3.75 | 0.49 | 3.85 | 0.59 | 3.83 | 0.57 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 4.5 | 3.58 | -0.92 | 2.96 | -1.54 | 2.6 | -1.9 | 4.5 | 3.58 | -0.92 | 2.96 | -1.54 | 2.6 | -1.9 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 7.9 | 4.52 | -3.38 | 4.7 | -3.2 | 6.76 | -1.14 | 1.29 | 6.35 | 5.06 | 5.57 | 4.28 | 2.53 | 1.24 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.01 | 3.66 | -0.35 | 3.86 | -0.15 | 4.09 | 0.08 | 0.45 | 2.29 | 1.84 | 2.77 | 2.32 | 2 | 1.55 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 4.56 | 3.79 | -0.77 | 3.67 | -0.89 | 4.66 | 0.1 | 3.34 | 5.06 | 1.72 | 4.82 | 1.48 | 5.97 | 2.63 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 2.52 | 2.94 | 0.42 | 3.47 | 0.95 | 3.43 | 0.91 | 2.57 | 3.94 | 1.37 | 4.31 | 1.74 | 4.24 | 1.67 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 3.32 | 3.88 | 0.56 | 3.98 | 0.66 | 4.46 | 1.14 | 5.14 | 3.87 | -1.27 | 3.98 | -1.16 | 4.42 | -0.72 |
Chris Sale – If we use just his last four starts mentioned up top (20 ER in 23.2 IP), we’re left with a 21.6 K-BB% that would be just outside the top five. Four of his 23 fly balls have left the yard, but he’s right at his normal HR rate for the season. What we’re left at is a .457 BABIP and 62.5 LOB%. They must be hitting him really hard, right? He has a 24.3 LD%. That’s kind of hard, but not near .500 BABIP hard. In all, over his last four starts, he has a -4.0 Hard-Soft% without a hard hit rate above 23.1% in any of the four starts. So what’s going on here? It seems just weirdness and flukiness, but nothing to be overly alarmed about unless you expected him to continue striking out over a third of the batters he faced with a near 20 SwStr% for the season. It seems the only thing you really need to worry about here is his the .319 BABIP his defense allows. His FIP is almost exactly what it was last year, his SIERA is a touch lower, and his xFIP is over a quarter of a run lower this year. Plus, he’s generating more weak contact than ever on top of that with batted ball rates in line with career norms as well.
Ian Kennedy – This huge discrepancy between his FIP and other estimators is obviously a result of the 19.2 HR/FB that shows no signs of normalizing, although it’s down to 14.6% over his last 12 starts. His ERA is still sizably lower than his FIP likely due to 14% of his runs being unearned.
Johnny Cueto is all about that BABIP with a .240 mark this year. Normally, I’d call that unsustainable without any remarkable indicators, which he doesn’t exhibit, but we have to consider the possibility of an outlier with his 3rd straight season at .240 or below. Just realize that in the history of baseball, no starting pitcher with at least 500 innings has ever had a career BABIP below .240 with Sid Fernandez’s .247 the lowest in the last 30 years. Both Cincinnati and Kansas City allow an equally low team BABIP, so there should be little change there. The KC defense may be better, but the park may actually hurt BABIP. His ERA is closer to his FIP because his 7.9 HR/FB is tied for the 2nd lost mark of his career, but may be a bit more sustainable in Kansas City than in Cincinnati.
Rubby de la Rosa – I’m not sure if we mentioned his 19.2 HR/FB today yet.
Wei-Yin Chen – His .276 BABIP seems sustainable due to a fly ball profile with a low LD rate and strong defense, but his 81.9 LOB% is unlikely to be. His 13.9 HR/FB (11.4 career) actually pushes his FIP up above four. A league average pitcher makes sense here.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 0.320 | 0.292 | -0.028 | 11.2% | 89.3% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.302 | 0.307 | 0.005 | 1.3% | 92.0% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.318 | 0.325 | 0.007 | 9.4% | 76.4% |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 0.280 | 0.200 | -0.08 | 7.1% | 90.9% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.308 | 0.347 | 0.039 | 2.6% | 87.4% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 0.296 | 0.283 | -0.013 | 8.0% | 86.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 0.279 | 0.240 | -0.039 | 10.7% | 86.1% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.284 | 0.293 | 0.009 | 5.8% | 93.0% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 0.315 | 0.385 | 0.07 | 0.0% | 89.5% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.303 | 0.354 | 0.051 | 3.8% | 88.9% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.280 | 0.290 | 0.01 | 9.4% | 87.9% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.290 | 0.282 | -0.008 | 5.6% | 83.1% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 0.292 | 0.282 | -0.01 | 6.4% | 86.2% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.289 | 0.276 | -0.013 | 10.8% | 87.9% |
Gio Gonzalez has a couple of things working against him here. As great as ground balls can be for many pitchers, he seems to be sacrificing too much and not gaining enough in the exchange. He’s induced just two pop ups this year and the contact he induces is not any weaker than average. With the infield defense being as poor as it is, it’s cost him a .347 BABIP despite a 19.8 LD%. Does he deserve much better? Probably. Will it happen? I’d be more confidence with a defense that has shown an ability to field ground balls and turn them into outs.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Vidal Nuno is Dumpster Diving Special #1. With this matchup, you have a guy with the potential to miss a league average or even slightly higher rate of bats in a great park at the minimum price. The biggest strike against him here is that he’s been relieve up until his last start in which he faced just fewer than 20 batters, but that built him up a bit more for this start. If he even goes just five innings and 20 batters, it could be enough to earn his keep.
Jon Niese (2t) is not so much a dumpster dive or a play with upside, but he is a mostly fairly priced pitcher facing the worst offense in baseball vs LHP. He’s bumped his strikeouts slightly over the last two starts and faces the highest strikeout rate offense tonight.
Value Tier Two
Brett Anderson – The cost is slightly higher, the matchup not as great as it usually is when we find him in the top tier, but we’re still dealing with a great batted ball and contact authority profile with just enough strikeouts to give him a reasonably high floor that you might look for on such a short slate in cash games tonight. He should neutralize Bryce Harper, but some of the RH bats are heating up.
Value Tier Three
There’s not much separation between Anderson and these pitchers, but…….
Matt Shoemaker (4t) has seen his price increase and gets a downgrade in park tonight to one that might concern you for a guy who has had HR issues this season, but those seem to be behind him and it’s not like the matchup is unfavorable overall. Don’t expect him to keep up his current beastly pace set over the last three starts, but it’s more than likely to be a good performance here.
Chris Sale (1) is the top overall pitcher tonight with the top projected strikeout rate. I think we’ve done enough to quell concern over his last few starts and the matchup is not too bad, but this is easily the top price on the board.
Ian Kennedy (4t) has been basically a league average pitcher for nearly the last two months now. It’s just that the start to his season was so poor that a lot of people haven’t noticed. Cincinnati has some pop, but is a terrible road offense and very cold right now. This is a good spot for a guy with an above average strikeout rate, even with a HR problem.
Jonathan Gray obviously has a wide range of outcomes tonight with the smallest track record, but has shown a lot of upside over the last couple of months in AAA and gets the benefit of a much better park tonight. A rock bottom price or close to it might be enough to be worth a shot.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Johnny Cueto (2t) is nearly a 3A today, but paying a high price for BABIP in the toughest matchup of the day is always a risk. He does have the ability to miss some bats, though you might not know it over the last month. Going from Cincinnati to Kansas City may not be as much of an upgrade as most people think aside from a small benefit to his HR rate.
Rubby de la Rosa – This is more a case of the combined factors tonight giving him such a wide range of outcomes than someone who just seems accurately priced. I have no idea what to expect here.
Gio Gonzalez – His new profile with ground balls up and strikeouts down is less valuable in a daily fantasy sense, but it might be interesting to see the lineup the Dodgers put out there tonight. I’d expect it to still lean heavily RH.
Wei-Yin Chen gets an upgrade in park tonight, but still seems more accurately priced than any other pitcher tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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