Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, August 27th
This week we embark on our final few journeys through the daily fantasy pitching landscape together for the 2018 season. As always, it’s been a pleasure to serve the community in this capacity and hopefully the information provided has been of use to readers.
We start our last week with a perfectly reasonable seven-game slate and some big names who haven’t exactly met expectations this season, mostly due to injury and some who have exceeded them. In fact, there seems to be a disproportionate number of high priced arms on tonight’s slate, but you certainly can’t say there’s not going to be upside on this slate.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 2.9 | 4.58 | 4.7 | 52.0% | 0.89 | 4.28 | 2.69 | Astros | 103 | 124 | 130 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | -4.4 | 4.22 | 6.2 | 42.6% | 1.03 | 4.11 | 4.34 | Yankees | 123 | 117 | 106 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | -4.6 | 4.77 | 5.2 | 42.0% | 0.91 | 4.61 | 3.92 | Diamondbacks | 91 | 88 | 89 |
| David Hess | Orioles | -8.4 | 5.34 | 5.3 | 35.3% | 1.04 | 6.83 | 4.28 | Blue Jays | 98 | 104 | 134 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | -1.2 | 3.53 | 6.2 | 41.8% | 0.89 | 3.27 | 1.89 | Athletics | 120 | 109 | 145 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | -1.1 | 3.53 | 5.7 | 47.0% | 0.92 | 3.39 | 3.16 | Angels | 106 | 111 | 61 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 8.8 | 4.24 | 5.8 | 43.2% | 1.01 | 4.25 | 3.17 | Mets | 105 | 79 | 71 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 3.8 | 3.61 | 5.9 | 48.5% | 1.03 | 3.27 | 3.26 | White Sox | 93 | 95 | 123 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | -5.2 | 3.21 | 5.6 | 51.7% | 1.01 | 3.24 | 3.33 | Cubs | 110 | 104 | 136 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | 3.9 | 5.23 | 5.2 | 39.1% | 0.92 | 4.86 | 4.00 | Rockies | 85 | 78 | 99 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | -0.2 | 3.49 | 6.0 | 50.3% | 0.91 | 3.50 | 2.96 | Giants | 102 | 87 | 57 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | -5.6 | 4.41 | 5.2 | 48.2% | 1.04 | 4.74 | 3.79 | Orioles | 96 | 91 | 48 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | -4.3 | 3.28 | 6.1 | 45.6% | 0.99 | 2.98 | 3.30 | Phillies | 97 | 94 | 116 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | -8.7 | 4.40 | 5.7 | 41.3% | 0.99 | 4.30 | 5.45 | Nationals | 89 | 100 | 113 |
Brett Anderson has thrown at least seven shutout innings in three of his last four starts, but struck out more than two in only one of those starts. In fact, he tied a season high with six strikeouts in his last start. His ground ball rate is up to 55.7% on the season and above 57% in each of those three starts, above 70% in each of his last two. The downside is that his 13.1 K% is easily lowest on the board, his 8.3% Barrels/BBE is third worst and the Astros have split bests 124 wRC+ and 19.6 K% vs LHP. Houston is the most negative run environment in baseball however.
Chris Stratton has a below average strikeout rate (17.7%) with the highest aEV (90.3 mph) and second worst xwOBA (.377) on the board, both by a decent amount. What he has in his favor though, is a great park that occasionally can help that contact play down and a below average offense vs RHP (88 wRC+, 23.8 K%). This offense is obviously improved with trade additions and better health over the last month, but is still very top heavy with several outs in the latter half.
Gerrit Cole has the top strikeout rate (34.7%) on the board by just under four full points along with the top SIERA (2.87) and is second with a .289 xwOBA. He has, however, allowed the highest rate of contact above 95 mph on the board (41.7%), while he’s facing the hardest hitting offense on the slate (120 wRC+, 23.3 Hard-Soft% on the road, 23.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), also the hottest offense on the board (145 wRC+, 17.2 K%, 19.5 HR/FB last seven days). He does so in the most negative run environment in baseball however.
Jon Gray has pitched into the seventh inning with three runs or less in six of seven starts since returning from the minors with the one exception being the Dodgers at Coors. He’s struck out 17 of his last 54 on the road, though there doesn’t seem to be any change in his pitch selection via home/away splits. The most significant development has been a .216 BABIP since returning despite a similar batted ball profile. He has the fourth best strikeout rate (27.1%) and xwOBA (.299) on the board. The Angels don’t normally strike out much (20.7% vs RHP), but are up to 26.9% with a 7.9 HR/FB over the last week. They were down Trout, Upton and Ohtani for a good portion of the last week, though two of the three should be in the lineup for this game. It’s obviously a massive park upgrade too.
Masahiro Tanaka and his third best 13.7 SwStr% on this board are in a super high upside matchup against the White Sox (18.1 K-BB% on the road, 18.7 K-BB% vs RHP), but they do have some power (14+ HR/FB on the road and vs RHP) and we all know about his issues (20.5 HR/FB, 8.0% Barrels/BBE) in a difficult park, while he’s struck out just 12 of his last 69 batters.
Noah Syndergaard struck out six Giants in six two run innings, his first start with less than three runs since returning from his most recent DL stint. While the strikeout rate remains less than impressive over this span, the SwStr% is still in elite territory and he’s easily been the top contact manager on the board. His .276 xwOBA, 84.7 mph aEV, 2.2% Barrels/BBE and 26.6% 95+ mph EV are all best on the board, his 49.8 GB% is second. He gets a park downgrade against one of the most disciplined (11.5 K-BB% vs RHP) and hottest offenses on the board (136 wRC+, 23.2 HR/FB last seven days), but the Cubs just got done feasting on Cincinnati pitching at home during the day time.
Odrisamer Despaigne has allowed eight runs in eight innings in two starts for the Angels in Texas and Arizona. He’s not missing bats at even a league average rate, but an 18.9 K% is more respectable than expected from him normally and he probably has the top park adjusted matchup on the board, facing the Rockies (78 wRC+, 15.4 K-BB% vs RHP) at home.
Patrick Corbin has failed to complete six innings just four times since his first start of the season and has the second highest strikeout rate (30.8%) with the highest swinging strike rate (15.1%). His 17.6 SwStr% over the last month is best on the board with an increased strikeout rate (31.8%). His 2.90 SIERA is second best on the board and his .290 xwOBA is third. He’s in the top matchup among the high upside pitchers in San Francisco (10.0 HR/FB) against the Giants (87 wRC+, 10.8 HR/FB vs LHP), though the Giants have just a 21.5 K% vs LHP. Over the last week, the Giants have a 57 wRC+ and 26.8 K% with an aging lineup and a superstar catcher done for the season.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Jon Lester (.282 – 79.1% – 13.8 – 10.6% unearned run rate) is facing a Mets’ offense with a 79 wRC+, 25.1 K% and 9.3 HR/FB vs LHP, but does so with the third highest xwOBA on the board (.361) and just an 18.9 K% in somewhat neutral park for more than $8K.
Carlos Rodon (.206 – 80.1% – 8.7 – 10.3% unearned run rate) has gone at least six innings in 10 of his last 11 starts, including at least seven innings in five of his last seven, and may be the second best contact manager on the board (4.2% Barrels/BBE and 33.5% 95+ mph EV) but has so much potential regression in all of his numbers with exactly a 20 K% and a difficult matchup in a difficult park against the team with the best splits on the board with a 123 wRC+, 10.6 BB% and 18.5 HR/FB at home and 10.6 BB% and 17.8 HR/FB vs LHP. It might not be a fully healthy lineup, but considering the lack of positive run environments on the board, it might be the worst park adjusted matchup we see tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Sam Gaviglio struck out seven of 28 Orioles in seven innings of one run ball in his last outing. The last time he had previously completed six innings was also against Baltimore (7.2 IP – 4 ER – 2 HR – 8 K) in his first post-All-Star break start. His numbers aren’t terrible with a league average strikeout rate and estimators. He’s even had some of his best starts against these Orioles. However, he’s finished six innings with less than three runs just two times this season, allows a bit too much hard contact (40% 95+ mph EV is third worst on the board) and is pitching in the most positive run environment tonight. The Orioles do have a 16.7 K-BB% vs RHP and 20.7 K-BB% over the last week with a 48 wRC+. I don’t hate him, but don’t want to pay $7K for him either.
Stephen Strasburg was lit up for five runs in his first start off the DL by the same Phillies he’ll be facing tonight. His 9.2% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board for the season and his velocity was down a couple miles per hour in his return. Considering the depth of pitching on this board and his recent performance (or lack of it), I’d consider a healthy Strasburg a potential steal on this board where nobody should be on him, but I have no confidence in suggesting that to be the case right now.
Zach Eflin has a 5.59 ERA, 5.15 FIP and 18.5 K% with eight HRs allowed over his last seven starts. The Nationals followed three straight shutouts with a 15 HR outburst, mostly in the last few innings of Sunday’s game. Their 20 K% vs RHP is second lowest on the board.
David Hess has the following line in his last start at Toronto: 7 IP – 1 R – 0 BB – 7 K – 24 BF). It was the only the second time this season (13 starts) he’s gone beyond six innings and the first time he’s struck out more than four. He has the second lowest strikeout rate (14.9%) and worst Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board. Baltimore may be the most negative run environment on the board against an offense with a 134 wRC+ and board high 22.6 HR/FB over the last week.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 13.9% | 6.3% | 13.0% | 16.4% | Season | 13.1% | 4.8% | 13.7% | 19.5% | Road | 14.6% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 15.7% | L14Days | 16.3% | 2.0% | 25.0% | |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 23.7% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 12.3% | Season | 20.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | Road | 25.5% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 18.6% | L14Days | 20.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 22.2% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 21.6% | Season | 17.7% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 28.9% | Home | 15.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 21.4% | L14Days | 17.4% | -5.2% | ||
| David Hess | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 14.9% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 8.5% | Season | 14.9% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 8.5% | Home | 10.0% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 8.7% | L14Days | 20.0% | 8.0% | 16.7% | -5.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.1% | 7.3% | 13.2% | 10.2% | Season | 34.7% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 13.9% | Home | 28.4% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 7.4% | L14Days | 41.3% | 4.4% | 16.0% | |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 26.1% | 6.8% | 12.5% | 12.8% | Season | 27.1% | 6.5% | 14.2% | 18.7% | Road | 26.7% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 16.9% | L14Days | 27.5% | 3.9% | 15.4% | 14.7% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 21.7% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 11.1% | Season | 18.9% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 17.7% | Home | 21.0% | 8.2% | 14.9% | 10.3% | L14Days | 25.0% | 2.3% | -3.2% | |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 24.8% | 5.8% | 20.6% | 13.8% | Season | 25.1% | 6.2% | 20.5% | 21.1% | Home | 27.4% | 5.3% | 18.1% | 13.0% | L14Days | 22.2% | 2.2% | 11.1% | 35.2% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 25.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 0.4% | Season | 24.6% | 4.9% | 7.7% | -6.1% | Road | 21.3% | 3.9% | 6.5% | -4.2% | L14Days | 22.0% | 6.1% | -24.2% | |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | L2 Yrs | 14.2% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 10.6% | Season | 19.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 18.5% | Home | 14.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 9.8% | L14Days | 18.9% | 5.4% | 16.7% | 39.3% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 26.0% | 6.7% | 13.1% | 17.8% | Season | 30.8% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 25.4% | Road | 25.0% | 6.9% | 16.8% | 15.8% | L14Days | 29.4% | 3.9% | 38.3% | |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.0% | 7.5% | 18.7% | 17.0% | Season | 21.5% | 6.9% | 16.7% | 18.0% | Road | 16.0% | 5.9% | 23.5% | 21.9% | L14Days | 18.4% | 4.1% | 20.0% | 23.6% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 29.1% | 6.4% | 11.9% | 9.4% | Season | 28.7% | 6.0% | 18.7% | 17.2% | Road | 30.0% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 7.1% | L14Days | 26.3% | 5.3% | 50.0% | 30.8% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 5.1% | 14.3% | 12.2% | Season | 22.1% | 5.7% | 11.0% | 8.9% | Home | 21.0% | 5.2% | 18.8% | 13.5% | L14Days | 13.5% | 9.6% | 25.0% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Home | 20.3% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 10.8% | LH | 19.6% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 16.7% | L7Days | 16.3% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 17.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.6% | 10.6% | 18.5% | 20.7% | LH | 23.0% | 10.6% | 17.8% | 21.5% | L7Days | 22.7% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 10.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 18.7% | RH | 23.8% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 20.8% | L7Days | 26.6% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 34.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.7% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 17.5% | RH | 22.7% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 16.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.1% | 22.6% | 20.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.7% | 8.0% | 15.7% | 23.3% | RH | 21.5% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 23.9% | L7Days | 17.2% | 7.7% | 19.5% | 27.1% |
| Angels | Home | 21.3% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 22.1% | RH | 20.7% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 20.9% | L7Days | 26.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 22.6% |
| Mets | Road | 21.7% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 19.1% | LH | 25.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 14.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.2% | 10.3% | 18.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.1% | 7.0% | 14.4% | 18.9% | RH | 25.5% | 6.8% | 14.2% | 11.9% | L7Days | 22.5% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 13.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.4% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 10.1% | RH | 20.9% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 13.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.1% | 23.2% | 13.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.7% | 8.1% | 14.6% | 17.5% | RH | 23.6% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 16.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.1% | 12.2% | 26.1% |
| Giants | Home | 21.3% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 19.6% | LH | 21.5% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 19.3% | L7Days | 26.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 5.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.6% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 9.8% | RH | 24.0% | 7.3% | 13.9% | 13.5% | L7Days | 27.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 2.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.4% | 9.4% | 14.7% | 7.9% | RH | 25.2% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.4% | 14.9% | 17.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.8% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 15.9% | RH | 20.0% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 13.4% | L7Days | 23.3% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 18.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 13.1% | 7.2% | 1.82 | 12.8% | 7.5% | 1.71 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 20.0% | 9.5% | 2.11 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 1.87 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.13 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 2.12 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 14.9% | 8.2% | 1.82 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 2.44 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 34.7% | 13.7% | 2.53 | 32.3% | 12.3% | 2.63 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 27.1% | 13.6% | 1.99 | 23.1% | 15.1% | 1.53 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 18.9% | 8.4% | 2.25 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 2.08 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 25.1% | 13.7% | 1.83 | 25.7% | 12.9% | 1.99 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 24.6% | 14.1% | 1.74 | 20.3% | 13.3% | 1.53 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | 19.5% | 11.9% | 1.64 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.22 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 30.8% | 15.1% | 2.04 | 31.8% | 17.6% | 1.81 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 21.5% | 9.3% | 2.31 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 2.10 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 28.7% | 11.4% | 2.52 | 26.3% | 7.1% | 3.70 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 22.1% | 10.0% | 2.21 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 2.13 |
Noah Syndergaard is still missing bats a rate commiserate with his career SwStr% and should eventually increase his strikeout rate a bit.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 3.47 | 4.35 | 0.88 | 3.47 | 0.65 | 4.23 | 0.76 | 4.66 | 1.19 | 1.65 | 3.94 | 2.29 | 3.62 | 1.97 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 2.71 | 4.64 | 1.93 | 2.71 | 2.17 | 4.27 | 1.56 | 5.50 | 2.79 | 1.77 | 4.76 | 2.99 | 4.99 | 3.22 | 3.77 | 2.00 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 5.37 | 4.74 | -0.63 | 5.37 | -0.87 | 4.50 | -0.87 | 5.36 | -0.01 | 7.71 | 4.57 | -3.14 | 4.49 | -3.22 | 5.51 | -2.20 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 5.50 | 5.34 | -0.16 | 5.50 | 0.27 | 6.11 | 0.61 | 7.85 | 2.35 | 4.30 | 4.72 | 0.42 | 5.25 | 0.95 | 5.85 | 1.55 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 2.73 | 2.87 | 0.14 | 2.73 | 0.23 | 2.57 | -0.16 | 2.43 | -0.30 | 3.60 | 2.76 | -0.84 | 2.62 | -0.98 | 1.19 | -2.41 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 4.67 | 3.34 | -1.33 | 4.67 | -1.56 | 3.27 | -1.40 | 3.29 | -1.38 | 3.15 | 3.74 | 0.59 | 3.9 | 0.75 | 4.11 | 0.96 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 3.64 | 4.68 | 1.04 | 3.64 | 0.95 | 4.74 | 1.10 | 4.47 | 0.83 | 6.39 | 4.55 | -1.84 | 4.36 | -2.03 | 5.48 | -0.91 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 3.90 | 3.58 | -0.32 | 3.90 | -0.35 | 4.50 | 0.60 | 4.10 | 0.20 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 0.25 | 3.48 | 0.23 | 4.27 | 1.02 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 3.38 | 3.32 | -0.06 | 3.38 | -0.29 | 2.62 | -0.76 | 2.41 | -0.97 | 4.50 | 3.50 | -1.00 | 3.32 | -1.18 | 2.75 | -1.75 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | 6.35 | 4.14 | -2.21 | 6.35 | -2.46 | 3.47 | -2.88 | 4.64 | -1.71 | 9.00 | 4.00 | -5.00 | 3.39 | -5.61 | 3.78 | -5.22 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 3.17 | 2.90 | -0.27 | 3.17 | -0.55 | 2.37 | -0.80 | 2.74 | -0.43 | 3.34 | 2.53 | -0.81 | 2.28 | -1.06 | 1.05 | -2.29 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 4.94 | 4.00 | -0.94 | 4.94 | -0.97 | 4.49 | -0.45 | 4.74 | -0.20 | 5.76 | 3.89 | -1.87 | 3.51 | -2.25 | 4.07 | -1.69 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 4.23 | 3.18 | -1.05 | 4.23 | -1.19 | 3.69 | -0.54 | 2.91 | -1.32 | 11.25 | 3.30 | -7.95 | 3.05 | -8.20 | 7.90 | -3.35 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 3.93 | 3.96 | 0.03 | 3.93 | 0.09 | 3.76 | -0.17 | 4.77 | 0.84 | 5.22 | 4.09 | -1.13 | 3.97 | -1.25 | 3.94 | -1.28 |
Brett Anderson has a .278 BABIP, but has a low line drive rate and the Oakland defense is even below that mark.
Chris Stratton has a .329 BABIP and 66.7 LOB%.
Jon Gray still has a .330 BABIP and 66.2 LOB%.
Odrisamer Despaigne has a .356 BABIP and 49.8 LOB% in 28.1 IP, mostly out of the pen for the Marlins earlier in the season.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.271 | 0.278 | 0.007 | 55.7% | 18.9% | 7.8% | 91.4% | 32.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 0.290 | 0.206 | -0.084 | 40.4% | 15.7% | 11.7% | 88.9% | 42.6% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.296 | 0.329 | 0.033 | 41.6% | 26.0% | 2.7% | 87.0% | 37.7% |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.313 | 0.260 | -0.053 | 35.3% | 17.4% | 12.6% | 89.0% | 43.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.283 | 0.283 | 0.000 | 35.8% | 22.8% | 12.8% | 80.5% | 37.5% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.300 | 0.330 | 0.030 | 47.1% | 23.4% | 13.3% | 84.0% | 37.5% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.281 | 0.282 | 0.001 | 37.4% | 25.2% | 6.9% | 87.5% | 40.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.292 | 0.263 | -0.029 | 47.0% | 18.1% | 9.8% | 83.8% | 32.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.300 | 0.340 | 0.040 | 49.8% | 24.6% | 6.4% | 86.0% | 31.8% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | 0.295 | 0.356 | 0.061 | 40.7% | 34.1% | 0.0% | 84.2% | 41.5% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.284 | 0.299 | 0.015 | 48.4% | 23.8% | 5.4% | 83.6% | 27.9% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.308 | 0.319 | 0.011 | 47.3% | 19.9% | 5.2% | 89.9% | 35.4% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.288 | 0.313 | 0.025 | 43.6% | 24.6% | 4.0% | 83.6% | 32.1% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.299 | 0.294 | -0.005 | 39.1% | 20.7% | 11.0% | 86.1% | 38.8% |
Chris Stratton has a 26 LD% and has induced just three infield flies all season. Can’t really argue with this BABIP.
Jon Gray had a .386 BABIP through his first 17 starts, .216 over his last seven. Neither number is sustainable, obviously, nor is it a surprise to see Colorado pitchers above .300. The pop-up rate is best on the board, but the line drive rate is a bit elevated.
Masahiro Tanaka has a fine profile and isn’t that far removed from his defense.
Noah Syndergaard has an unfathomable .340 BABIP. He does have an elevated line drive rate and generates few popups despite excelling at generating weak contact. That explains some of it, as does the porous defense, but nearly all of it.
Odrisamer Despaigne has a pretty disgusting, but small sample profile.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.346 | -0.030 | 0.368 | -0.033 | 0.302 | -0.077 | -0.800 | 88.1 | 8.3 | 38.000 | 205 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 0.305 | -0.042 | 0.310 | -0.006 | 0.295 | -0.054 | -1.000 | 87 | 4.2 | 33.500 | 236 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.377 | -0.021 | 0.387 | -0.021 | 0.368 | 0.074 | -0.100 | 90.3 | 7.0 | 38.600 | 342 |
| David Hess | Orioles | 0.348 | 0.003 | 0.350 | -0.004 | 0.329 | -0.012 | -1.400 | 87.5 | 9.4 | 37.000 | 235 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.289 | -0.029 | 0.295 | -0.017 | 0.267 | 0.004 | -0.600 | 88.7 | 6.5 | 41.700 | 367 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.299 | 0.013 | 0.307 | 0.010 | 0.320 | -0.040 | 0.500 | 88.8 | 4.9 | 36.300 | 391 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.361 | -0.033 | 0.342 | -0.014 | 0.366 | 0.060 | -0.200 | 88 | 7.0 | 36.800 | 440 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.327 | -0.016 | 0.313 | -0.015 | 0.336 | 0.008 | -1.100 | 87.9 | 8.0 | 38.800 | 327 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.276 | 0.017 | 0.279 | -0.010 | 0.269 | 0.009 | 0.200 | 84.7 | 2.2 | 26.600 | 312 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Angels | 0.378 | -0.044 | 0.330 | -0.048 | 0.417 | -0.043 | -0.800 | 89.3 | 5.4 | 41.300 | 92 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.290 | -0.031 | 0.318 | 0.004 | 0.261 | -0.021 | -0.500 | 88.1 | 6.0 | 35.800 | 402 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.338 | 0.004 | 0.363 | 0.030 | 0.368 | 0.010 | 0.200 | 88.7 | 6.4 | 40.000 | 295 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.332 | -0.020 | 0.275 | -0.016 | 0.456 | 0.065 | 0.400 | 89.3 | 9.2 | 39.900 | 238 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.305 | 0.003 | 0.351 | -0.014 | 0.297 | 0.032 | 0.100 | 86.6 | 6.0 | 35.100 | 302 |
Jon Gray has a high aEV (he had a very low one last year), but a surprisingly low rate of Barrels/BBE considering.
Noah Syndergaard is not only best in several Statcast categories today, but just so far beyond the rest of the field.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Quality board for a half slate. Not too much separation among the top arms. Most lower priced pitchers are just only SP2 viable on DraftKings.
Value Tier One
Jon Gray (3t) can match upside or at least come close to some much higher priced pitchers tonight. He’s not in a great spot to meet that strikeout upside, but gets a massive park upgrade.
Value Tier Two
Patrick Corbin (1) is most expensive on FanDuel, second most on DraftKings. Among high priced or high upside arms, he’s in the top park adjusted spot tonight even if the Giants don’t strike out as much against LHP. He consistently gets his six innings with eight or nine strikeouts in.
Value Tier Three
Gerrit Cole (2) is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, second most expensive on FanDuel. He’s having the best season of any pitcher today and pitching in the best park. The quality of contact is less of a concern with his strikeout rate, but then potentially more of one in this particular matchup. Cole is usable, but so too may be an odd Oakland bat or two.
Noah Syndergaard (3t) is not in an ideal spot and hasn’t been achieving very Ace-like results since returning from the DL. He’s also not in a very favorable spot tonight, but one could argue that everything seems to be in place for him to begin being an elite arm again soon.
Masahiro Tanaka (5) certainly has enough upside in a high upside matchup that some exposure is warranted, especially on DraftKings ($9.5K), but I do feel that he could be over-valued in a spot with more danger than some may recognize.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
These aren’t necessarily fourth tier arms per se today, but low priced SP2 types you may be able to get away with on DraftKings.
Brett Anderson isn’t the ideal candidate today, but players may be need a low priced SP2 candidate. He’s in a very dangerous spot, but in a great park and keeps the ball on the ground with the potential to go deep into this game.
Chris Stratton is one of the worst pitchers on the board today, but the park is great, the price is low and the matchup isn’t terrible.
Odrisamer Despaigne is also one of the worst pitchers on the board today, but is also in a great park at the lowest price with the best matchup.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.