Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, June 4th
I don’t imagine that tonight’s slate gets many people excited with only the second game of a double-header beginning prior to 10 pm ET. The pitching menu is not very appetizing either, which, if there were even that single guy, everyone would be on him anyway. The lack of games does allow for a closer look at some of today’s pitchers, which might be something that pays future dividends and could be worth the read even for those not playing today.
Pitchers for both ends of the double-header are listed because there is ample space to do so today, in case there are some shenanigans.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -5.5 | 4.12 | 6.1 | 59.7% | 0.91 | 3.44 | 4.04 | Braves | 111 | 120 | 89 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 1.4 | 4.16 | 6.1 | 37.2% | 0.93 | 4.76 | 5.13 | Angels | 93 | 91 | 103 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | -6.8 | 5.20 | 5.2 | 38.8% | 0.93 | 5.38 | 4.84 | Diamondbacks | 79 | 111 | 142 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 4.6 | 3.81 | 5.0 | 44.7% | 1.07 | 4.16 | 3.41 | Tigers | 105 | 89 | 126 |
| Drew VerHagen | Tigers | 1.2 | 4.32 | 4.1 | 48.9% | 1.07 | 5.16 | Yankees | 117 | 119 | 123 | |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 6.4 | 4.55 | 6.0 | 38.5% | 0.91 | 4.77 | 5.60 | Padres | 95 | 82 | 98 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 4.6 | 3.27 | 6.0 | 48.5% | 1.07 | 2.97 | 3.33 | Tigers | 105 | 89 | 126 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 1.2 | 4.47 | 5.4 | 41.7% | 1.07 | 4.67 | 5.09 | Yankees | 117 | 119 | 123 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 6.3 | 4.31 | 5.3 | 34.0% | 0.93 | 5.37 | 3.54 | Royals | 94 | 88 | 109 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 6.9 | 3.95 | 5.8 | 54.1% | 0.93 | 3.59 | 5.29 | Giants | 116 | 102 | 118 |
Clayton Richard has completed seven innings in four of his last five starts. He has failed to generate at least half his contact on the ground just twice over his last 11 starts. His strikeout rate over the last month (21.2%) is second best on tonight’s board. The only pitcher he is behind has thrown 16 less innings in a starting role over the last month. His .297 xwOBA is lowest on the board over the last 30 days. He has the interesting dynamic, though, of having the highest aEV (89.3%) and lowest Barrels/BBE (5%) on the board, likely a result of his strong ground ball rate.
Brooks baseball tells us he hasn’t really made much of an adjustment to his pitch mix in May (a few less fourseam, a few more changes and sliders) and he’s not throwing harder. Statcast, however, sees a big change in this season overall, as they had him throwing more fourseamers than Brooks last season. This year, he’s become the left-handed version of Tyson Ross, sinkers and sliders making up 77.6% of the arsenal (even to RHBs). And why not? The slider has a .269 xwOBA and 38.8 Whiff% with increased spin since last year. The sinker has a .349 xwOBA, 15.4 Whiff% and -6 LA (Launch Angle) with more spin than last year. According to Statcast, the slider is a pitch he hadn’t thrown more than 100 times in a season since 2012. As a result of the new slider usage against RHBs this year, he still has a .342 wOBA against them for the season, but that’s down to .281 with a 17.3 K-BB% and 57.7 GB% over the last month.
The matchup is not idea for Richard. The Braves are very tough on LHP (120 wRC+, 17.6 K%, 15 HR/FB), but he does get to face them in the most negative run environment on the board.
Domingo German has an injury riddled past that has led the Yankees to remain conservative with him in both the minors and majors the last few years. He’s completed six innings in just one of four starts, but something interesting happened in his last one. He jumped to 104 pitches (5.2 innings) from a previous high of 85 this year. That may not have the most positive immediate implications, but he’s had nearly a week off (5/28) and the new usage would be encouraging for a pitcher with a 26.7 K% (12.9 SwStr%) as a starter.
Complying with the Yankee pitching philosophy, he does not throw his hardest stuff most often. Overall, it’s a curveball at 38% that has a 38.8 Whiff% and .203 xwOBA. Against LHBs, he’s thrown both his changeup (39.1 Whiff%, .377 xwOBA) and curve more often than either his fastball or sinker. The high xwOBA on the change is not due to hard contact (81.8 mph aEV, 6 LA), but a 3.4 K-BB% on the pitch. Walks are an issue that has plagued him overall (11.4%) and could keep him from going deep into games even if the leash is lengthened.
He’ll be facing the Tigers in the only positive run environment in play tonight. It’s a pretty large offensive upgrade from any of the other parks in play tonight. The good news is that the Tigers play in it. They don’t strike out a lot (20.9 K% vs RHP), but they have neither patience (6.8 BB% vs RHP), nor power (8.3 HR/FB vs RHP) either. He’ll also be facing them in the second game of a double-header in which a few primary bats may be sitting.
Zack Godley has the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher on the board tonight with more than four starts this year, but that’s still just a league average 21.4 K% with a full point decrease in both that and his SwStr% over the last month, in which both his ERA and FIP are well above five. Five of his eight HRs have come over the last 30 days and he’s pitched in just one power/run friendly environment. These issues may be even more of a concern when you realize how much of an effect the humidor has had on power and run scoring in Arizona.
We’ll touch on some even more concerning issues in his numbers below, but while he’s looked decent enough in a few starts (along with underlying numbers) there’s just no consistency there. His velocity is down, by over a mile per hour on most of his pitches, which has resulted in a higher exit velocity on all of them as well. If you look at his velocity charts on Brooks, he’s seen a decline in velocity almost every single month since February of 2017 (which they may have data on due to the WBC?).
It’s not pretty. While his curveball has been throw more often to batters from either side of the plate than any other pitch (38.7%) and still maintains a 38.8 Whiff% and .285 xwOBA, those numbers too, are down significantly from last season. Meanwhile, the other two pitches he’s thrown more than five percent of the time, his sinker (33.7%) and cutter (21.8%), but have a .440 xwOBA!! The cutter has resulted in a 20.3 BB%. It may not be the best way to judge a pitch, but in contrast, the curve still has a 31.5 K-BB%.
The matchup has some upside. The Giants haven’t been terrible at home, but it’s a favorable park against a lineup that’s even more predominantly right-handed without Brandon Belt. They have a 17.9 K-BB% against RHP. However, Godley actually has a reverse split because of his arsenal. He’ll amp up the changeup all the way to 10% against LHBs, but still throws his curve, sinker and cutter each more than 20% of the time against batters from either side of the plate. The curve is a reverse platoon pitch and the cutter should be able to get same-handed batters out, but he just can’t throw strikes with it.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Nick Tropeano (.269 – 83% – 14.3) probably projects for a few more strikeouts, especially over the last month. Among pitchers with more than four starts, his 11.6 SwStr% is highest on the board tonight. That strand rate does make him look a bit better than his estimators right now, but that can be resolved with a K-rate increase as the LOB% declines. The major problem here is that he’s $8K or more on either site. The Royals are not dangerous (7.0 BB%, 8.4 HR/FB, 88 wRC+), but they do not strike out (17.7% vs RHP) and his 89.2 mph aEV is just a bit off the worst rate today, while his 35.4 GB% is higher only than Duffy tonight.
Julio Teheran (.230 – 79% – 13.4) had a league average 20.9 K% post-All-Star break last year that led to some optimism coming into this season. In eight starts through May 9th, he generated a 24 K% with an 11.5 SwStr%. Over his last four starts, he has an 11.9 K% with a 7.7 SwStr%. While he does have a double digit SwStr% in two of those starts, it’s been his control that’s abandoned him entirely, as he’s walked as many as he’s struck out (11.9%) over that span and has had a double digit walk rate in each of the four starts. He’s throwing more fastballs over this span, but batters are just swinging less. He’s still throwing the ball in the zone at the same rate and even more first pitch strikes, but overall swings are down three percentage points and O-Swing% is down four points. Batters have therefor been a bit more efficient in contacting his pitches in the zone (up two points). He’s allowed five HRs over his last four starts with a hard hit rate above 50% in each of his last two. All of that said, the Padres are the top park adjusted matchup on the board (82 wRC+ with a split high 25.8 K% vs RHP) and can put a lot of pitchers back on track, but that’s entirely about them. He costs $9.8K on DraftKings!!
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Danny Duffy has pitched 13.2 innings of two run ball over his last two starts. One was against the Rangers, but in a difficult park in Texas. In the most recent one, he walked as many Twins as he struck out (four each). Not much has changed. He’s still allowing a lot of loud contact in the air and has the worst Statcast numbers on the board (9.8% Barrels/BBE, 40.5% 95+ mph EV), resulting in a .400 xwOBA that’s 34 points higher than the second worst pitcher tonight (who also happens to be the most expensive). He has the second lowest strikeout rate on the board this season and it’s declined over the last month. He’s gone four straight starts with a single digit SwStr%. Now, the Angels have been surprisingly inefficient against LHP, but with just a 10.6% K-BB% that suggests this could turn around. He costs just $4.7K on DraftKings (where there may only be one or two playable pitchers) and things could change if Mike Trout is out of the lineup (banged up on Sunday, but expected to play), but $7K on FanDuel in this spot is kind of absurd.
Derek Holland did not strike out a single one of the 23 batters he faced at Coors last time out. The park upgrade returning home is massive, of course, and the Diamondbacks have been awful on the road. They still strike out in a quarter of plate appearances against LHP as well, but exhibit significantly more power against pitchers from that side (17.6 HR/FB). Although not as bad as last year, RHBs still have a .358 wOBA with nine HRs against Holland this year, although just .337 with two of those at home.
Mike Fiers will be facing the mighty damn Yankees in a mighty positive run environment. Now, in the second game of a double-header, he may not end up facing as many mighty damn bats as he would normally, but even the B-Yankees with a few A’s are probably damned mighty enough to do significant damage. (ALL the Gleyber Torres?) His 15.3 K% is lowest on the board tonight, though several pitchers actually have a much higher xwOBA than his .342.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 7.8% | 18.0% | 15.8% | Season | 19.7% | 8.1% | 19.1% | 17.6% | Home | 19.4% | 6.4% | 13.2% | 17.9% | L14Days | 17.3% | 7.7% | 30.0% | 2.6% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 22.4% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 19.4% | Season | 18.6% | 10.7% | 15.6% | 26.8% | Road | 20.1% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 14.8% | L14Days | 18.0% | 12.0% | 25.7% | |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 10.7% | 16.1% | 20.1% | Season | 19.4% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 20.5% | Home | 18.7% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 20.5% | L14Days | 12.5% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 5.4% |
| Domingo German | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 28.0% | 12.3% | 18.9% | 14.4% | Season | 27.5% | 11.4% | 20.7% | 18.8% | Road | 26.3% | 11.8% | 18.8% | 15.2% | L14Days | 29.6% | 11.4% | 60.0% | 12.0% |
| Drew VerHagen | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.3% | 8.6% | 19.6% | 29.6% | Season | 26.2% | 16.7% | 29.2% | Home | 17.0% | 6.0% | 20.0% | 28.6% | L14Days | |||||
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% | Season | 19.6% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 21.1% | Road | 19.9% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 11.3% | L14Days | 14.1% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 32.1% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 29.2% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 9.6% | Season | 30.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 11.1% | Road | 29.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.5% | L14Days | 31.4% | 9.8% | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 7.6% | 16.4% | 14.2% | Season | 15.3% | 4.7% | 13.8% | 17.2% | Home | 19.4% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 13.0% | L14Days | 15.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 12.5% |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 8.2% | 18.4% | 28.6% | Season | 20.4% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 28.3% | Home | 16.5% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 26.3% | L14Days | 23.4% | 2.1% | 17.6% | 17.1% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 22.9% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 13.4% | Season | 21.4% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 11.9% | Road | 24.3% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 9.4% | L14Days | 20.0% | 16.0% | 25.0% | 48.3% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 20.7% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 14.8% | LH | 17.6% | 8.6% | 15.0% | 19.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 22.7% |
| Angels | Home | 21.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 19.8% | LH | 20.3% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 14.9% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.3% | 14.9% | 28.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.0% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% | LH | 25.0% | 8.6% | 17.6% | 24.6% | L7Days | 15.8% | 11.3% | 24.6% | 33.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.8% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 25.0% | RH | 20.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 20.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 26.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.5% | 7.4% | 16.9% | 17.5% | RH | 23.3% | 10.0% | 17.0% | 18.3% | L7Days | 28.7% | 4.1% | 16.7% | 13.2% |
| Padres | Home | 24.5% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 18.0% | RH | 25.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 14.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 14.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.8% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 25.0% | RH | 20.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 20.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 26.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.5% | 7.4% | 16.9% | 17.5% | RH | 23.3% | 10.0% | 17.0% | 18.3% | L7Days | 28.7% | 4.1% | 16.7% | 13.2% |
| Royals | Road | 18.9% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 17.2% | RH | 17.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 22.4% | L7Days | 19.7% | 5.9% | 11.5% | 30.8% |
| Giants | Home | 23.0% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 23.2% | RH | 24.9% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 20.9% | L7Days | 19.1% | 4.4% | 13.0% | 14.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 19.7% | 9.9% | 1.99 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 1.93 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 18.6% | 9.3% | 2.00 | 16.7% | 9.3% | 1.80 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.46 | 15.6% | 8.2% | 1.90 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 27.5% | 13.8% | 1.99 | 26.7% | 12.9% | 2.07 |
| Drew VerHagen | Tigers | 26.2% | 15.4% | 1.70 | |||
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 19.6% | 10.1% | 1.94 | 15.3% | 7.5% | 2.04 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 30.3% | 12.3% | 2.46 | 31.5% | 12.4% | 2.54 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 15.3% | 8.4% | 1.82 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.19 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 20.4% | 11.6% | 1.76 | 19.3% | 11.4% | 1.69 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 21.4% | 10.7% | 2.00 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.06 |
Domingo German has the top K% on the board, which he’s maintained in a starting role over the past month, and it’s not even close.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 4.74 | 3.92 | -0.82 | 4.74 | -1.14 | 4.15 | -0.59 | 4.84 | 0.10 | 3.22 | 2.97 | -0.25 | 2.82 | -0.40 | 3.09 | -0.13 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 5.71 | 4.99 | -0.72 | 5.71 | -0.52 | 5.75 | 0.04 | 7.20 | 1.49 | 5.81 | 5.59 | -0.22 | 5.69 | -0.12 | 6.01 | 0.20 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 4.94 | 4.70 | -0.24 | 4.94 | -0.12 | 4.77 | -0.17 | 5.71 | 0.77 | 4.13 | 5.16 | 1.03 | 5.1 | 0.97 | 4.99 | 0.86 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 5.45 | 3.76 | -1.69 | 5.45 | -1.78 | 4.56 | -0.89 | 2.99 | -2.46 | 6.64 | 3.93 | -2.71 | 3.68 | -2.96 | 5.04 | -1.60 |
| Drew VerHagen | Tigers | 6.30 | 4.54 | -1.76 | 6.30 | -1.17 | 3.02 | -3.28 | 4.64 | -1.66 | |||||||
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.03 | 4.84 | 0.81 | 4.03 | 0.94 | 5.12 | 1.09 | 5.39 | 1.36 | 4.50 | 5.21 | 0.71 | 5.36 | 0.86 | 5.42 | 0.92 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 2.31 | 3.04 | 0.73 | 2.31 | 0.61 | 2.28 | -0.03 | 2.46 | 0.15 | 2.61 | 2.98 | 0.37 | 2.77 | 0.16 | 2.25 | -0.36 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 4.45 | 4.66 | 0.21 | 4.45 | 0.44 | 5.13 | 0.68 | 4.89 | 0.44 | 3.90 | 4.51 | 0.61 | 4.66 | 0.76 | 4.78 | 0.88 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 3.80 | 4.50 | 0.70 | 3.80 | 0.83 | 4.92 | 1.12 | 4.37 | 0.57 | 4.22 | 4.61 | 0.39 | 4.79 | 0.57 | 5.56 | 1.34 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 4.38 | 4.38 | 0.00 | 4.38 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 0.07 | 4.06 | -0.32 | 5.60 | 4.95 | -0.65 | 4.85 | -0.75 | 6.05 | 0.45 |
Domingo German has a .229 BABIP, but a 49 LOB% and 26.7 HR/FB in his four starts.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.308 | 0.296 | -0.012 | 56.5% | 21.8% | 6.4% | 86.9% | 37.1% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.308 | 0.298 | -0.010 | 33.0% | 22.7% | 8.9% | 89.2% | 38.1% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.298 | 0.265 | -0.033 | 38.6% | 18.1% | 14.9% | 89.5% | 42.8% |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 0.282 | 0.274 | -0.008 | 41.1% | 26.7% | 10.3% | 80.9% | 24.2% |
| Drew VerHagen | Tigers | 0.285 | 0.250 | -0.035 | 41.7% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 84.8% | 44.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.284 | 0.230 | -0.054 | 38.2% | 17.7% | 12.2% | 85.2% | 34.6% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.282 | 0.274 | -0.008 | 47.1% | 19.6% | 3.2% | 83.3% | 35.4% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.285 | 0.291 | 0.006 | 39.0% | 17.0% | 11.3% | 88.2% | 35.2% |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 0.294 | 0.269 | -0.025 | 35.4% | 20.5% | 10.7% | 84.2% | 37.7% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.272 | 0.316 | 0.044 | 51.9% | 21.0% | 16.3% | 91.4% | 33.3% |
Julio Teheran does have some positive indicators, but not enough to sustain this far below his .274 career rate.
Zack Godley has a career .295 BABIP and 89.4 Z-Contact%. Increases this year to both have been significant. The interesting thing is that he’s already tied his season total of eight infield flies from last year.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.330 | -0.010 | 0.310 | 0.015 | 0.297 | -0.047 | -2.100 | 89.3 | 5.0 | 37.400 | 222 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.400 | -0.036 | 0.333 | -0.005 | 0.397 | -0.029 | 0.400 | 89.2 | 9.8 | 40.500 | 205 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.362 | -0.035 | 0.368 | -0.020 | 0.369 | -0.030 | -0.800 | 88.7 | 9.1 | 38.900 | 175 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 0.309 | -0.005 | 0.270 | 0.075 | 0.319 | -0.022 | -1.100 | 85.9 | 5.6 | 31.100 | 90 |
| Drew VerHagen | Tigers | 0.372 | -0.114 | 0.431 | -0.011 | -0.900 | ||||||
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.346 | -0.031 | 0.301 | -0.001 | 0.381 | -0.060 | -0.400 | 88.8 | 7.4 | 39.700 | 189 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.298 | -0.056 | 0.263 | -0.004 | 0.320 | -0.051 | -0.500 | 88.2 | 7.9 | 36.800 | 190 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.342 | 0.002 | 0.346 | -0.007 | 0.322 | 0.026 | -0.700 | 88.4 | 8.6 | 36.600 | 186 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 0.353 | -0.030 | 0.379 | -0.037 | 0.336 | 0.013 | -1.800 | 89.2 | 8.7 | 38.600 | 127 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.366 | -0.032 | 0.322 | -0.007 | 0.401 | -0.030 | -1.200 | 88.7 | 9.2 | 38.900 | 185 |
Clayton Richard having the highest aEV and lowest Barrels/BBE is partially a function of the high ground ball rate on a tiny board, as discussed above.
Domingo German has the best overall xwOBA (.309), aEV (85.9 mph) and 95+ mph EV (31.1%) on tonight’s board.
Zack Godley has the second highest xwOBA (.366) and Barrels/BBE (9.2%) on the board. He has the highest xwOBA (.401) over the last month.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The top guy may have some value on your standard slate and the second tier guy has some upside, but Godley is in disarray and probably not someone I’m even considering on a normal sized board at his current cost. That said, he still may be the top overall arm on the board or close to it, considering matchups and parks.
Value Tier One
Clayton Richard (1t) is not the most expensive pitcher on the board tonight…or second…or third…or fourth, but perhaps he should be. The matchup is going to diminish the upside on his new-found strikeout ability, but maybe that just makes him old Clayton Richard in a great park. No other pitcher on the board is averaging close to the 6.1 innings per start he is this year (decimal here is in tenths of a point, not outs in an inning). The slider seems to have given him some new life and he’s not afraid to throw it to batters from either side of the plate.
Value Tier Two
Domingo German (3) may have the best stuff on the board and has the most upside in a per inning basis. He combines swing and miss stuff with great contact management. Further encouragement must be found in his pitch count last time out with nearly a week off in between. The Detroit bat may be missing a bat or two in the second game as well. However, he does have control issues and is pitching in the most positive run environment (the only positive run environment…the only run environment even close to positive) in play tonight. He costs $8.7K on DraftKings, but for $6.6K on FanDuel, he’s right up there as a top value on this board.
Value Tier Three
Zack Godley (1t) is walking too many batters and getting hammered in the zone. Two of his three pitches have a .440 xwOBA and while he’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup without their best hitter, I’m not so sure that’s of much benefit to him. Everything seems to be in decline overall from last season. However, he has occasionally (four times) thrown quality starts with five or more strikeouts. There’s a chance he pays off for $8.5K on FanDuel, but he’s the most expensive pitcher on either site and the only one to reach $10K on either site tonight ($10.2K on DraftKings).
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.