Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, June 5th
Some house cleaning before starting in on this small seven game slate to open the week. Season stats have been updated to reflect the first two months of the season and there are a few significant changes. Remember, league starts reflect starting pitchers only.
Strikeouts and swinging strikes stayed roughly the same, as did batted ball rates. ERA jumped up a full one-fifth of a run in May with estimators trailing just a bit as they likely fail to immediately adjust to another bump in HR rate. It’s likely the most difficult for xFIP, which attempts to normalize HR rates. For the season, starting pitchers are now averaging a 14.1 HR/FB. For context, that’s up over 40% from 2013!
Last month, I spent almost a full week trying to figure out why starting pitcher BABIP was down so much in April, going through several scenarios and crediting Statcast with allowing teams to better position defenders. Well, in May, starting pitcher BABIP was right back up to .298, right around where it’s always been, bringing the season line up to .293. The speculation was apparently all for naught.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 13.6 | 5.18 | 4. | 20.0% | 1.02 | 4.72 | 5.76 | STL | 91 | 97 | 60 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 2.6 | 4.36 | 5.77 | 44.0% | 1 | 3.71 | 4.23 | PHI | 74 | 89 | 74 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -11.6 | 3.72 | 6.28 | 54.7% | 1.02 | 3.84 | 3.24 | CIN | 105 | 104 | 98 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.7 | 4.53 | 5.76 | 33.3% | 0.96 | 4.72 | 3.15 | CHC | 104 | 87 | 80 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 2.3 | 4.86 | 4.96 | 47.2% | 0.96 | 4.56 | 5.53 | MIA | 100 | 94 | 118 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -1.9 | 4.1 | 5.66 | 48.6% | 0.89 | 4.38 | 4.31 | LOS | 123 | 102 | 73 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 1 | 4.25 | 5.13 | 47.0% | 0.89 | 3.76 | 4.09 | WAS | 110 | 116 | 135 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 8 | 4.08 | 5.78 | 35.4% | 1.06 | 4.73 | 5.82 | HOU | 128 | 123 | 177 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -2 | 3.98 | 5.74 | 42.7% | 0.93 | 4.47 | 5.51 | OAK | 119 | 85 | 96 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -0.2 | 3.97 | 6.5 | 43.0% | 1.02 | 3.75 | 2.84 | MIL | 97 | 99 | 81 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -4 | 4.39 | 5.92 | 45.8% | 1.02 | 4.28 | 5.14 | SFO | 77 | 76 | 90 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 1.6 | 4.24 | 5.68 | 41.7% | 1.06 | 4.59 | 4.33 | KAN | 79 | 79 | 89 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 4 | 4.31 | 4.78 | 33.9% | 1 | 5.01 | ATL | 100 | 94 | 98 | |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -14.3 | 3.94 | 5.7 | 45.6% | 0.93 | 4.15 | 2.44 | TOR | 91 | 85 | 137 |
Carlos Martinez has overcome some early season troubles and has now pitched into the eighth inning in three straight starts with seven or more strikeouts in four of five starts. Though he’ll still walk a batter on occasion, his 17.8 K-BB% is a career high, though so is his 33.9 Hard%. However, he does seem to staying off barrels with the second lowest mark per BBE (5.3%) on the board today. While the Cincinnati offense has been surprisingly proficient this year, they’ve struck out in 26.5% of their plate appearances over the last week.
Dan Straily struck out five or fewer in seven of his first eight starts, but has struck out 24 of his last 77 batters now and has a SwStr above 11% in each of his last five starts. Just as importantly, he’s cut his walks enough to give him a 20.2 K-BB% over his last five starts and may be the best contact manager on the board this season. That may not be readily apparent with his 35% hard hit rate, but his 86 mph aEV is tied for lowest on the board, while his 26.8% of batted balls below 95 mph is the only mark below 30% on the board, signifying that most of his categorized “hard contact” is on the low end. We also have to recognize that the Cubs are who they are at this point and have just a 24.2 Hard% over the last week. They are 22nd in baseball with a 94 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against fly ball pitchers.
Jeff Samardzija has the highest strikeout rate on the board and the fourth best K-BB (24.6%) in baseball. He has the best peripherals of his career. While it would appear that the contact he does allow has been an issue, it’s been more an issue of launch angle than anything. A 27.7 LD% appears to be driving a .340 BABIP despite just a 6.1 Hard-Soft% and 86.3 mph aEV. His 22.7 Soft% is 10th highest in the majors. The Brewers like to strike out (27.2% at home, 24.9% vs RHP, 32.7% over the last week) and hit HRs (19.0 HR/FB at home, 18.3 HR/FB vs RHP).
Sean Manaea has some drawbacks. He has the worst defense on the slate behind him and faces a healthy and hot Toronto offense (22.2 HR/FB vs LHP), predominantly from the RH side. While he still has some hard contact issues against RHBs (46.7 GB%, 37.8 Hard%), he’s greatly improved his peripherals against them (20.1 K-BB%) and has struck out 17 of his last 49 batters overall, going seven innings in each of his last two starts. A 5.0% Barrels/BBE is lowest on the board and he gets an offense with a 22.9 K% against LHP in Oakland. A 14.3 SwStr% is highest on the board.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Junior Guerra (.158 – 98.4% – 13.3) has an impressive 13.4 SwStr% through three starts, but has walked six of 49 batters since returning. He has had tremendous walk issues at times in the minors, but also an ability to miss bats and may have the top matchup on the slate, though it’s a significant park boost for the San Francisco offense. He did have league average peripherals last season and may not be a terrible choice for somewhere around $8K, though I still believe him to be over-valued here.
Gio Gonzalez (.277 – 86.8% – 14.5) has the lowest K-BB rate of his career (8.6%) and is already more than half way to a career high in HRs. His low ERA is a complete base-runner sequencing fluke. The Dodgers are finally showing some competence against LHP this year (33.6 Hard%).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
J.A. Happ struck out and walked three each in his return from a month and a half layoff, though he did generate 10 swings and misses in 81 pitches. He also allowed two HRs and hasn’t finished five innings since his first start. His 13.1% Barrels/BBE isn’t far behind the worst mark today. The A’s do have a 25.9 K% and 9.4 HR/FB against LHP, but the decreased workload along with missing time for an elbow injury just might be too scary. It’s not often a team can strike out in more than 30% of plate appearances over a week and not even be worst on a seven game slate.
Hyun-Jin Ryu may have a 19.0 HR/FB, but that’s a bit deceptive because six of his eight HRs came over his first three starts. The significant drop in his strikeout rate in May may also be deceptive with a double digit SwStr%. However, he’s been held below 80 pitches in each of his last two starts (it’s a thing the Dodgers sometimes do with so many injury prone pitchers) and he has one of the few unfavorable matchups on the board. Washington has a 17.1 HR/FB against LHP.
Asher Wojciechowski received his first starting assignment in over two years last week. He struck out three of the 17 batters he faced. Just two of the 12 batted balls he allowed were on the ground. Three left the yard.
Bartolo Colon is not only enduring some disastrous results, but his K-BB% has reduced each of the last three seasons and now stands at the lowest mark (8.2%) in over a decade. He’s struck out two or fewer in four of his last six starts. If there is an offense he may still be able to put down, the Phillies have a 23 K% against RHP and don’t make a lot of hard contact with an 8.2 total team Hard-Soft%.
Mike Fiers struck out eight of 26 Twins in his last start, but still has just a 17.6 K% and 7.6 SwStr% over his last five starts. He’s allowing one HR every 13 batters this season. That may be a difficult trick to sustain in Kansas City (8.6 HR/FB at home), but it’s the most positive run environment in play tonight.
Nick Pivetta did now last more than five innings in any of his previous four major league starts and is likely to be rained out according to Kevin’s early forecast that I’ve just looked at.
Ian Kennedy has allowed a HR in six straight starts. He’s allowed the hardest contact in the air and has the worst matchup in the history of pitching apparently. Make room for all the Houston stacks tonight. On the bright side, Houston is only the second best offense in the majors against fly ball pitchers (120 sOPS+).
Eddie Butler has a four and a half ERA with just one HR allowed in 18 innings. He’s struck out just one more batter than he’s walked. He does have some extreme splits in terms of keeping RHBs on the ground with weaker contact. His GB and Hard rates digress over 20 points each against LHBs.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 17.7% | 2.9% | Home | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 4.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 15.6% | 4.2% | Home | 19.9% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 6.4% | 8.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.3% | Road | 24.4% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 8.6% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.5% | 9.5% | Road | 22.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 5.7% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 15.2% | 9.3% | Home | 14.6% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 11.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.1% | 9.1% | Road | 19.2% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 13.7% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.6% | 8.5% | Home | 23.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.2% | Home | 22.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 16.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.7% | 7.0% | Road | 19.1% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.8% | Road | 22.1% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 2.1% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.8% | Home | 19.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 12.2% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.3% | Road | 17.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 8.2% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.3% | 10.0% | Road | 23.1% | 13.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.5% | 7.1% | Home | 21.2% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 4.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Road | 20.5% | 8.5% | RH | 20.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.4% | 9.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 24.2% | 7.4% | RH | 23.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 25.6% | 5.8% |
| Reds | Home | 21.7% | 8.8% | RH | 21.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 26.5% | 11.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.2% | 10.2% | RH | 22.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.6% | 12.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.7% | 6.1% | RH | 20.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.9% | 9.9% | LH | 21.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 25.9% | 10.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.0% | 9.0% | LH | 21.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.9% |
| Astros | Road | 18.2% | 9.3% | RH | 18.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 14.6% | 10.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.3% | 8.6% | LH | 25.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 30.7% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 27.2% | 9.3% | RH | 24.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 32.7% | 11.9% |
| Giants | Road | 20.1% | 8.5% | RH | 19.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.2% |
| Royals | Home | 18.7% | 7.1% | RH | 20.8% | 6.5% | L7Days | 15.5% | 5.5% |
| Braves | Home | 19.9% | 8.5% | RH | 19.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 14.4% | 5.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.2% | 8.0% | LH | 22.9% | 10.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 40.0% | 16.7% | 24.0% | 2017 | 41.7% | 17.6% | 25.0% | Home | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 53.3% | 30.0% | 40.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.4% | 15.0% | 2017 | 33.2% | 14.5% | 12.2% | Home | 33.1% | 11.9% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 50.0% | -5.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 2017 | 33.9% | 13.6% | 12.7% | Road | 34.3% | 9.6% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 45.7% | 8.3% | 22.8% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.3% | 16.1% | 2017 | 35.0% | 9.2% | 14.0% | Road | 31.7% | 15.5% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 6.3% | 20.6% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 37.0% | 18.9% | 21.1% | 2017 | 41.1% | 7.1% | 16.1% | Home | 40.3% | 23.3% | 26.1% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 12.5% | 31.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.5% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 2017 | 32.5% | 14.5% | 12.4% | Road | 32.6% | 12.8% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 35.7% | 18.8% | 14.3% | 2017 | 34.6% | 19.0% | 11.1% | Home | 37.0% | 27.3% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 36.4% | 13.5% | 20.1% | 2017 | 39.4% | 15.0% | 24.4% | Home | 40.5% | 11.2% | 24.4% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 30.8% | 43.7% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 2017 | 34.4% | 30.0% | 18.0% | Road | 31.0% | 12.6% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.3% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 2017 | 28.8% | 16.1% | 6.1% | Road | 29.9% | 15.6% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 30.0% | 14.7% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.0% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 2017 | 30.0% | 13.3% | 10.0% | Home | 35.8% | 8.7% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 7.7% | 17.7% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 32.9% | 16.2% | 14.8% | 2017 | 31.1% | 30.0% | 11.6% | Road | 33.8% | 21.2% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 40.7% | 21.7% | 30.5% | 2017 | 40.7% | 21.7% | 30.5% | Road | 36.6% | 11.1% | 24.4% | L14 Days | |||
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.6% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 2017 | 33.6% | 10.0% | 10.9% | Home | 32.1% | 9.8% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Road | 33.0% | 11.5% | 16.5% | RH | 30.8% | 12.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 31.9% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.7% | 10.4% | 6.6% | RH | 29.5% | 11.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 28.4% | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| Reds | Home | 28.8% | 14.9% | 7.2% | RH | 28.7% | 13.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 29.1% | 20.8% | 7.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.7% | 16.5% | 14.5% | RH | 29.4% | 12.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 10.3% | 6.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.9% | 13.7% | 9.1% | RH | 31.0% | 13.6% | 10.8% | L7Days | 27.1% | 20.8% | 3.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.9% | 16.9% | 22.4% | LH | 33.6% | 12.9% | 18.7% | L7Days | 30.8% | 10.9% | 15.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.3% | 14.9% | 11.9% | LH | 32.1% | 17.1% | 10.8% | L7Days | 30.3% | 16.9% | 12.7% |
| Astros | Road | 31.2% | 14.8% | 13.7% | RH | 31.2% | 15.3% | 13.4% | L7Days | 30.6% | 23.4% | 15.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 33.8% | 18.0% | 19.0% | LH | 33.1% | 9.4% | 15.4% | L7Days | 33.5% | 20.3% | 16.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.0% | 19.0% | 16.7% | RH | 33.8% | 18.3% | 14.5% | L7Days | 34.0% | 16.7% | 12.0% |
| Giants | Road | 31.2% | 9.7% | 10.8% | RH | 29.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 26.6% | 3.5% | 8.9% |
| Royals | Home | 31.3% | 8.6% | 11.5% | RH | 31.9% | 11.9% | 12.1% | L7Days | 34.9% | 6.2% | 14.5% |
| Braves | Home | 31.7% | 12.7% | 14.9% | RH | 31.1% | 10.8% | 13.3% | L7Days | 30.2% | 13.4% | 12.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.3% | 16.0% | 10.7% | LH | 29.5% | 11.9% | 10.6% | L7Days | 29.0% | 22.2% | 13.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 18.2% | 8.2% | 2.22 | 18.2% | 8.2% | 2.22 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 14.0% | 4.9% | 2.86 | 11.1% | 3.5% | 3.17 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 26.9% | 11.2% | 2.40 | 26.6% | 10.4% | 2.56 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 25.7% | 12.0% | 2.14 | 26.9% | 13.5% | 1.99 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 16.9% | 9.5% | 1.78 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 1.78 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.7% | 9.0% | 2.30 | 19.7% | 7.8% | 2.53 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 21.1% | 11.2% | 1.88 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 1.48 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.9% | 8.9% | 2.35 | 18.4% | 7.4% | 2.49 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.49 | 16.7% | 12.4% | 1.35 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 28.3% | 11.1% | 2.55 | 27.9% | 10.6% | 2.63 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 21.7% | 13.8% | 1.57 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 1.37 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 19.7% | 9.8% | 2.01 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 2.30 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 23.3% | 8.7% | 2.68 | 23.9% | 8.0% | 2.99 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 27.4% | 14.3% | 1.92 | 29.4% | 14.8% | 1.99 |
Our only major outlier today is a pitcher with just a few starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 5.63 | 5.03 | -0.6 | 6.36 | 0.73 | 7.54 | 1.91 | 5.76 | 0.13 | 5.63 | 5.03 | -0.6 | 6.36 | 0.73 | 7.54 | 1.91 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 6.99 | 4.79 | -2.2 | 4.77 | -2.22 | 4.96 | -2.03 | 8.03 | 1.04 | 8.06 | 4.71 | -3.35 | 4.78 | -3.28 | 5.59 | -2.47 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.08 | 3.63 | 0.55 | 3.45 | 0.37 | 3.47 | 0.39 | 2.03 | -1.05 | 2.43 | 3.62 | 1.19 | 3.47 | 1.04 | 3.42 | 0.99 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.56 | 4.09 | 0.53 | 4.49 | 0.93 | 3.82 | 0.26 | 3.42 | -0.14 | 2.43 | 3.6 | 1.17 | 4.06 | 1.63 | 2.77 | 0.34 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 4.42 | 5.7 | 1.28 | 4.97 | 0.55 | 4.35 | -0.07 | 7.05 | 2.63 | 4.42 | 5.71 | 1.29 | 4.97 | 0.55 | 4.35 | -0.07 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.03 | 4.83 | 1.8 | 4.62 | 1.59 | 4.77 | 1.74 | 4.53 | 1.50 | 4.8 | 5.07 | 0.27 | 4.86 | 0.06 | 5.61 | 0.81 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 3.91 | 4.18 | 0.27 | 4.17 | 0.26 | 4.85 | 0.94 | 5.52 | 1.61 | 3.72 | 5.13 | 1.41 | 5.29 | 1.57 | 4.75 | 1.03 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.12 | 4.89 | -0.23 | 5.15 | 0.03 | 5.43 | 0.31 | 5.74 | 0.62 | 12.6 | 5.82 | -6.78 | 5.9 | -6.7 | 8.84 | -3.76 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 4.5 | 3.07 | -1.43 | 2.93 | -1.57 | 5.09 | 0.59 | 6.13 | 1.63 | 4.5 | 5.51 | 1.01 | 5.09 | 0.59 | 10.29 | 5.79 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.63 | 2.98 | -1.65 | 2.83 | -1.8 | 3.14 | -1.49 | 2.59 | -2.04 | 4.13 | 2.77 | -1.36 | 2.6 | -1.53 | 2.49 | -1.64 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 1.84 | 4.42 | 2.58 | 4.48 | 2.64 | 4.47 | 2.63 | 4.68 | 2.84 | 0.77 | 5.14 | 4.37 | 4.98 | 4.21 | 4.16 | 3.39 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.96 | 4.45 | -0.51 | 4.47 | -0.49 | 6.93 | 1.97 | 7.09 | 2.13 | 4.28 | 4.86 | 0.58 | 4.98 | 0.7 | 5.68 | 1.4 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 5.12 | 4.3 | -0.82 | 4.49 | -0.63 | 5.78 | 0.66 | 8.91 | 3.79 | 5.65 | 4.48 | -1.17 | 4.51 | -1.14 | 6.32 | 0.67 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 3.91 | 3.68 | -0.23 | 3.67 | -0.24 | 3.31 | -0.6 | 2.19 | -1.72 | 2.63 | 3.35 | 0.72 | 3.4 | 0.77 | 3.29 | 0.66 |
Jeff Samardzija has just a 66.7% strand rate as a consequence of that high BABIP that was discussed above.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 0.276 | 0.190 | -0.086 | 20.8% | 0.083 | 5.9% | 89.2% | ||||
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.280 | 0.344 | 0.064 | 45.5% | 0.2 | 11.6% | 92.9% | 88.3 | 7.80% | 6.20% | 205 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.287 | 0.254 | -0.033 | 50.5% | 0.181 | 10.2% | 85.5% | 87.4 | 5.30% | 3.40% | 189 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.276 | 0.240 | -0.036 | 34.8% | 0.161 | 18.4% | 84.8% | 86 | 6.40% | 4.00% | 157 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 0.292 | 0.273 | -0.019 | 45.5% | 0.291 | 21.4% | 85.6% | 86 | 5.40% | 3.60% | 56 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.296 | 0.277 | -0.019 | 44.4% | 0.187 | 7.2% | 86.5% | 86.2 | 7.20% | 4.80% | 194 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.288 | 0.305 | 0.017 | 47.8% | 0.209 | 9.5% | 83.4% | 86.1 | 8.10% | 5.50% | 136 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.298 | 0.203 | -0.095 | 38.6% | 0.142 | 6.7% | 83.3% | 90.7 | 13.40% | 8.90% | 127 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.300 | 0.273 | -0.027 | 47.5% | 0.197 | 0.0% | 87.2% | 89.9 | 13.10% | 9.20% | 61 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.306 | 0.340 | 0.034 | 40.5% | 0.277 | 9.7% | 83.0% | 86.3 | 6.60% | 4.40% | 198 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.305 | 0.158 | -0.147 | 46.2% | 0.154 | 0.0% | 81.2% | 88.8 | 7.50% | 5.00% | 40 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.285 | 0.277 | -0.008 | 46.3% | 0.167 | 6.7% | 86.0% | 86.4 | 9.70% | 6.90% | 165 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.296 | 0.389 | 0.093 | 33.9% | 0.271 | 13.0% | 88.7% | 90 | 10.20% | 6.70% | 59 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.286 | 0.233 | -0.053 | 50.8% | 0.153 | 2.5% | 85.2% | 87 | 5.00% | 3.00% | 119 |
Carlos Martinez has the lowest BABIP of his career, 50 points below his career rate, but also has a low line drive rate and is already just three away from a career high in popups. The expectation would be for him to regress a bit however.
Dan Straily generated a .239 BABIP last year and has a .253 career BABIP. On top of that, hit suppression has been a strength of the Miami defense, while his profile has never looked stronger. As much as you have to be skeptical of anything below a .250 BABIP, this is the most positive outlook one can have.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Jeff Samardzija (1) is in a marginal spot in terms of run prevention, but clearly the top on in terms of strikeout potential. The Brewers have a major league high 200 Ks (632 PAs) against power pitchers despite a 110 sOPS+ (8th). Their 24 HRs are also tied for the most in the majors.
Sean Manaea (2t) certainly faces an improved Toronto lineup, but he gets to do so at home with the highest SwStr% on the board. While he does have some bad contact issues with RHBs, his peripherals have been superior enough that it’s not been a major concern, while his cost is below $8K on either site.
Value Tier Two
There is no second tier today, just to show the sizeable gap in my point per dollar expectations.
Value Tier Three
Carlos Martinez (2t) is the most expensive pitcher on the board by a wide margin and is up to a borderline ridiculous $12.5K on DraftKings. That’s not going to take him off the board on a seven game slate, but it’s still far from ideal. The Reds are additionally the sixth best offense against ground ball pitchers (115 sOPS+) and fifth best against power pitchers with the same mark.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Dan Straily has not thrown his fastball more than 51% of the time in four straight starts and its’ working. The peripherals have been tremendous along with strong contact management, while he’s facing an offense that has been extremely disappointing this season. The price is still difficult to call a bargain though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window