Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, July 28th
Normally, on half slates, we’re lucky to get one stud and just hoping for a couple of useful arms. Sometimes we get much less than that, but today is not one of those days. In fact, the bigger problem might be finding arms to attack. (No, don’t worry. Jered Weaver is pitching.) With just seven games, more than half of the teams have either an All Star quality arm or at least the best one they available going tonight. I don’t know if I’d call it the best board of the season, but it’s probably the top short slate.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | -3.8 | 3.39 | 5.73 | 1.84 | 0.96 | 3.45 | 3.67 | ATL | 74 | 76 | 104 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 1.8 | 2.86 | 6.75 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 2.92 | 4.59 | CHC | 102 | 119 | 93 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 8.7 | 3.65 | 6.56 | 1.5 | 1.07 | 3.64 | 4.21 | KAN | 80 | 101 | 59 |
| David Price | BOS | 2.6 | 3.26 | 6.77 | 1.22 | 0.92 | 3.42 | 5.19 | ANA | 106 | 113 | 115 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 3.8 | 4.97 | 6.04 | 0.67 | 0.92 | 4.72 | 7.89 | BOS | 111 | 119 | 122 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 8.6 | 3.86 | 6.49 | 1.21 | 1.03 | 3.71 | 3.93 | CHW | 86 | 86 | 84 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 7.8 | 3.63 | 6.91 | 1.32 | 0.89 | 3.6 | 3.58 | WAS | 99 | 93 | 87 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 3.4 | 2.61 | 6.17 | 1.33 | 1 | 2.37 | 2.43 | STL | 112 | 113 | 61 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -5.5 | 4.18 | 6.04 | 2 | 1.03 | 3.9 | 3.9 | BAL | 97 | 110 | 72 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.7 | 4.79 | 5.87 | 0.84 | 0.96 | 5.07 | 5.43 | PHI | 92 | 81 | 77 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -6.7 | 4.15 | 5.8 | 1.42 | 1 | 4.05 | 4.34 | FLA | 90 | 96 | 113 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 5.6 | 4.1 | 6.12 | 1.46 | 0.89 | 3.91 | 4.45 | SFO | 112 | 102 | 88 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -4.3 | 4.34 | 5.34 | 1.51 | 1.03 | 4.42 | MIN | 93 | 90 | 95 | |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 5.9 | 4.13 | 5.83 | 1.63 | 1.07 | 4.28 | 4.12 | TEX | 99 | 93 | 102 |
Aaron Nola has had one strong start and one terrible one by conventional standards (runs) since returning from a short banishment to AAA, but struck out five of 20 in both. He’s a fascinating study because he’s still top 10 in the majors in K-BB (19.7%), GB rate (54.9%) and Hard-Soft (3.2%). What appeared to have happened is that his sinker had gone flat. Batters started stopped swinging at balls and started swinging and more often making contact with strikes. It’s hard to say whether those issues have resolved or not since his trip to the minors because the plate discipline numbers depict two very different starts and the heatmaps show a sinker still located more in the middle of the plate like during his downfall than nailing the low outside corner as it was the first two months of the season. Striking out five of 20 batters was about the only thing the same over most recent two starts. Miami did not make any hard contact, while Pittsburgh punished him the air. You’d think, because of the overall picture, this is a guy who is going to figure it out again. He has the Braves tonight in Atlanta. They often help pitchers figure it out quicker. They’re the worst offense vs RHP (26.5 Hard%, 8.2 HR/FB) and second worst at home (6.8 HR/FB).
Chris Sale got smashed at home by Atlanta and then one hit the Mariners for eight innings in Seattle. Yeah, go figure that one out. The results have been very up and down since the end of May, but he’s missing more bats and that’s very important from a daily fantasy perspective. More concerning is that he faces the second best offense vs LHP. While the Cubs gain a lot of offensive value through a high walk rate (10.4% vs LHP) and he doesn’t have any control issues, they also left the yard on 15.4% of their fly balls against southpaws. This is one of tonight’s worst park adjusted matchups.
David Price has struck out just five of his last 56 batters, allowing eight runs over his last 11.1 IP with a 6.6 SwStr% in each start. Previously, he had struck out exactly 10 in three straight after just a single strikeout performance. It’s difficult if not impossible to figure out the ups and downs. There are no discernable patterns in his pitch mix, plate discipline, or anything else that’s immediately obvious. While his 35.8 Hard% is more than seven points higher than his previous career high, his 20.1 K% is at least exactly in line with last season and eight best in baseball. The Angels have inconspicuously turned into one of the better offenses vs LHP and they rarely strike out (15.6% vs LHP).
John Lackey has allowed at least three runs in six of his last seven starts. HRs have been a major issue with 10 of them over this span and a 36.9 Hard%. The strikeout rate is down over the last month, but it’s still above average and the highest rate of his career. He’s in a good spot tonight with a great defense behind him though. The White Sox are a poor offense on the road and vs RHP with more strikeouts and less power than the average team. They additionally lose their DH tonight.
Johnny Cueto has faced a string of poor offenses over the last month and has struggled a bit more than expected in some of those offenses, not getting past the sixth inning in three of his last five starts after previously having failed to do so only three times this entire season. In fact, he’s only failed to complete six innings twice this season (once two starts ago). While there’s a decent gap between his ERA and non-FIP estimators, that’s not completely unexpected in San Francisco, where he pitches tonight in a very favorable park adjusted matchup against below average offense vs RHP. It’s unlikely the Nationals retain their 15.3 HR/FB on the road here either.
Jose Fernandez is the top strikeout pitcher in baseball. He’s sent down at least seven and usually more in 14 of his last 15 starts, missing by a single strikeout once. His control has improved as the season’s gone on to where he now has a 29.4 K-BB% just behind Kershaw for the major league lead. The Cardinals are the top road offense in baseball and second best vs RHP with a 14+ HR/FB in each spot. It’s not a great spot, but they have a 24.8 K% and have struggled offensively over the last week having played double-headers and long extra-inning games.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 71.9 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Cole Hamels (.280 – 83.2% – 14.3) is Mr. Inconsistency because you never know what you’re going to see in terms of walks, strikeouts, or home runs, but he maintains a low ERA because he’s also Mr. High Strand Rate. He has the third highest LOB% in the majors and the top two each have a K-BB% at least 8.9 points higher. There’s also a little bit less upside against a Kansas City offense with a 17.8 K% vs LHP tonight.
Tanner Roark (.289 – 75.1 – 9.1) has a 10.2% unearned run rate and whenever you get into the double digit range, you’ll start to see pitchers with sizable gaps between their ERA and estimators sometimes without any other obvious indicators, though his HR rate might be considered a bit low this year. He has been generating some incredibly weak contact earlier in the season, but it’s been much more average over his last seven starts. While he’s in a great park tonight, the Giants strike out just 16.9% of the time vs RHP.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Kyle Gibson has shown some improvement over the last month that garners some interest tonight and could keep a mostly RH lineup grounded tonight (55.1 GB%). It’s still a bit of a tough recommendation against a powerful offense, but he is at home at a low price and I’m not entirely against throwing him into your second DraftKings spot with a newfound ability to turn his league average SwStr% into actual strikeouts over the last month.
Matt Wisler has impressed with his SwStr% over the last month, but has allowed a ton of hard contact this season (37.3%) and six HRs over his last three starts, the last two in extremely power friendly parks though. He does have one of the top park adjusted matchups back home tonight against an offense with a 15.0 K-BB% vs RHP though.
Jered Weaver presents the question: how the hell are you going to stack the Boston offense and afford a reasonable pitcher?
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.8% | 5.8% | Road | 21.4% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 7.5% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 5.5% | Road | 30.4% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 10.7% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.4% | 7.6% | Home | 24.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 5.7% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.3% | 5.2% | Road | 24.0% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 5.4% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 14.3% | 6.2% | Home | 17.5% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 4.3% | 8.5% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 21.2% | 6.4% | Home | 21.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 7.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.9% | 5.5% | Home | 22.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.2% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 34.3% | 6.6% | Home | 34.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 7.3% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 17.4% | 8.2% | Home | 17.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 3.6% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 16.3% | 7.6% | Home | 15.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.8% | Road | 20.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 6.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 17.4% | 6.0% | Road | 16.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.5% | 10.3% | Road | 19.5% | 10.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.4% | Road | 18.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 9.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 20.1% | 7.7% | RH | 20.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.3% | 11.5% | LH | 19.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 16.4% | 11.5% |
| Royals | Road | 21.3% | 5.8% | LH | 17.7% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.1% |
| Angels | Home | 15.4% | 8.1% | LH | 15.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.5% | 8.2% | RH | 17.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 16.4% | 6.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.3% | 7.1% | RH | 21.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.1% | 7.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.0% | 8.7% | RH | 19.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.2% | 7.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.2% | 9.1% | RH | 20.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.1% | 6.9% | RH | 22.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 6.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 21.2% | 6.3% | RH | 21.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.6% | 7.8% | RH | 19.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.5% |
| Giants | Home | 17.2% | 10.0% | RH | 16.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.1% |
| Twins | Home | 19.6% | 8.0% | RH | 22.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.3% | 8.0% | RH | 19.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.1% | 14.3% | 6.0% | 2016 | 27.5% | 13.5% | 3.2% | Road | 29.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 0.0% | 18.5% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.7% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 2016 | 30.6% | 12.9% | 13.7% | Road | 28.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 0.0% | 35.3% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 27.2% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 2016 | 29.3% | 14.3% | 7.6% | Home | 27.1% | 18.0% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 2016 | 35.8% | 13.8% | 18.4% | Road | 32.0% | 9.6% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 39.6% | 0.0% | 18.8% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 30.6% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 2016 | 33.2% | 12.2% | 16.4% | Home | 29.4% | 10.1% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.6% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 2016 | 34.8% | 13.3% | 20.3% | Home | 30.4% | 8.6% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 41.0% | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 27.0% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 2016 | 25.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | Home | 24.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 18.2% | 9.4% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.6% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 2016 | 31.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | Home | 29.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 11.1% | -6.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 26.6% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 2016 | 26.5% | 12.7% | 4.3% | Home | 28.7% | 15.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 14.3% | 7.0% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 32.8% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 2016 | 37.3% | 12.2% | 19.7% | Home | 33.0% | 7.4% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 2016 | 30.1% | 10.4% | 11.6% | Road | 29.2% | 11.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 24.3% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 2016 | 23.4% | 9.1% | -1.9% | Road | 25.7% | 13.8% | 0.2% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 13.3% | 21.6% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.3% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 2016 | 33.3% | 12.3% | 16.6% | Road | 28.4% | 13.6% | 10.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 29.7% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 2016 | 31.5% | 12.8% | 14.3% | Road | 29.3% | 14.6% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 11.1% | 22.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 28.5% | 6.8% | 10.1% | RH | 26.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.0% | 1.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 28.6% | 13.1% | 8.4% | LH | 30.7% | 15.4% | 11.6% | L7Days | 28.1% | 8.2% | 2.5% |
| Royals | Road | 27.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | LH | 28.0% | 12.1% | 7.3% | L7Days | 30.9% | 5.8% | 12.5% |
| Angels | Home | 30.3% | 11.0% | 12.7% | LH | 28.5% | 12.2% | 7.2% | L7Days | 30.7% | 4.9% | 17.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.3% | 14.4% | 13.3% | RH | 34.6% | 13.9% | 16.1% | L7Days | 34.8% | 18.2% | 20.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 28.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% | RH | 29.0% | 11.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 30.2% | 12.8% | 10.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 35.3% | 15.3% | 18.2% | RH | 33.2% | 13.4% | 16.2% | L7Days | 27.5% | 9.8% | 11.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.6% | 14.3% | 14.9% | RH | 34.0% | 14.9% | 16.1% | L7Days | 36.4% | 9.3% | 18.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 31.6% | 13.7% | 12.3% | RH | 32.6% | 16.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 25.1% | 11.8% | -2.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.7% | 12.0% | 11.0% | RH | 27.8% | 12.3% | 6.2% | L7Days | 31.5% | 8.1% | 6.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 30.6% | 10.6% | 10.0% | RH | 30.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 33.3% | 7.1% | 15.3% |
| Giants | Home | 27.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | RH | 30.9% | 9.0% | 11.3% | L7Days | 32.5% | 9.3% | 12.9% |
| Twins | Home | 31.9% | 10.5% | 14.3% | RH | 30.9% | 11.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 28.8% | 5.3% | 9.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 29.0% | 11.9% | 9.5% | RH | 30.0% | 13.4% | 10.2% | L7Days | 32.0% | 18.2% | 12.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 25.4% | 9.6% | 2.65 | 27.4% | 10.7% | 2.56 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.31 | 24.1% | 15.0% | 1.61 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 22.5% | 12.1% | 1.86 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 1.68 |
| David Price | BOS | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.06 | 24.0% | 11.7% | 2.05 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 12.6% | 8.1% | 1.56 | 10.2% | 7.8% | 1.31 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 25.3% | 11.6% | 2.18 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 2.23 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 22.7% | 9.2% | 2.47 | 27.8% | 9.6% | 2.90 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 36.8% | 14.8% | 2.49 | 33.9% | 14.0% | 2.42 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.80 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 2.29 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 17.6% | 9.0% | 1.96 | 21.4% | 12.3% | 1.74 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 20.1% | 8.5% | 2.36 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 2.20 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 20.9% | 8.9% | 2.35 | 18.8% | 10.3% | 1.83 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 18.0% | 7.7% | 2.34 | 14.8% | 8.9% | 1.66 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 17.2% | 8.4% | 2.05 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 1.67 |
Chris Sale has had a 11% or better SwStr in each of his last seven starts despite striking out just 11 of his last 54 batters. His SwStr% is up over four points in the last 30 days, yet his K% remains unchanged from his season rate. I think we could see him pushing a 30% strikeout rate the rest of the way.
Johnny Cueto has seen a strikeout spike over the last month without a subsequent increase in SwStr%. It’s not something I’d buy into.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.36 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.32 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.75 | 3.21 | -1.54 | 2.99 | -1.76 | 3.05 | -1.7 | 6.6 | 3.29 | -3.31 | 3.12 | -3.48 | 2.54 | -4.06 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.18 | 3.59 | 0.41 | 3.69 | 0.51 | 3.69 | 0.51 | 5.4 | 3.79 | -1.61 | 4.07 | -1.33 | 5.09 | -0.31 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 2.87 | 4.16 | 1.29 | 4.1 | 1.23 | 4.27 | 1.4 | 3.14 | 4.71 | 1.57 | 4.61 | 1.47 | 3.21 | 0.07 |
| David Price | BOS | 4.51 | 3.39 | -1.12 | 3.24 | -1.27 | 3.35 | -1.16 | 4.01 | 3.36 | -0.65 | 3.06 | -0.95 | 2.54 | -1.47 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 5.32 | 5.52 | 0.2 | 5.79 | 0.47 | 5.66 | 0.34 | 5.64 | 6.64 | 1 | 6.94 | 1.3 | 5.91 | 0.27 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 3.79 | 3.75 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 0.02 | 3.87 | 0.08 | 5.29 | 4.33 | -0.96 | 4.48 | -0.81 | 5.33 | 0.04 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 2.53 | 3.5 | 0.97 | 3.36 | 0.83 | 2.79 | 0.26 | 3 | 3.08 | 0.08 | 3.08 | 0.08 | 3.4 | 0.4 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.54 | 2.55 | 0.01 | 2.27 | -0.27 | 2.07 | -0.47 | 3.46 | 2.47 | -0.99 | 2.01 | -1.45 | 2.48 | -0.98 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 4.67 | 4.51 | -0.16 | 4.32 | -0.35 | 4.3 | -0.37 | 3.03 | 3.74 | 0.71 | 3.53 | 0.5 | 3.29 | 0.26 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 4.92 | 4.62 | -0.3 | 4.83 | -0.09 | 4.72 | -0.2 | 7.24 | 4.04 | -3.2 | 4.16 | -3.08 | 5 | -2.24 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.37 | 4.22 | -0.15 | 3.96 | -0.41 | 3.67 | -0.7 | 4.23 | 3.84 | -0.39 | 3.58 | -0.65 | 3.9 | -0.33 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.05 | 3.94 | 0.89 | 3.75 | 0.7 | 3.39 | 0.34 | 3.38 | 4.21 | 0.83 | 4.29 | 0.91 | 3.41 | 0.03 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 7.38 | 5.06 | -2.32 | 4.94 | -2.44 | 4.88 | -2.5 | 10.13 | 6.26 | -3.87 | 6.2 | -3.93 | 6.61 | -3.52 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.99 | 4.81 | -0.18 | 4.72 | -0.27 | 4.73 | -0.26 | 6.33 | 4.12 | -2.21 | 3.87 | -2.46 | 4.62 | -1.71 |
Aaron Nola has just a 54.9 LOB% and whatever other problems that were outlined above, that’s still way too low and should self-correct to some degree. Over his last seven starts it’s just 44% with a .453 BABIP. Contact has been harder for sure (16.7 Hard-Soft%), but it’s still been on the ground 57.1% of the time. Some of this is about adjustments that he’s going to have to be able to make, but some of it’s probably just unfortunate sequencing that should work itself out.
David Price has a career high BABIP, 49 points above his career rate, but the fourth lowest Z-Contact% in baseball, he’s being squared up pretty well very often too. None of it really makes sense. His 70.4 LOB% is the second lowest mark of his career as well, but harder to claim it’s for sure not deserved with all of the hard contact.
Johnny Cueto has a 7.2 HR/FB and he’s allowed five HRs over his last five starts to get there. We’ve been harping on that rate all season as it seemed too low even for San Francisco when it was just half that a month ago. This is a more reasonable rate for this park, but maybe still too low in this new era of the long ball. One of those HRs were at home where he’s allowed only two HRs this season. If we give him credit for something between his FIP and SIERA, he’s still pitching at an All Star level.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .299 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.1 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.304 | 0.328 | 0.024 | 0.202 | 4.1% | 86.0% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.297 | 0.257 | -0.04 | 0.217 | 10.6% | 83.6% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.291 | 0.280 | -0.011 | 0.199 | 4.5% | 84.9% |
| David Price | BOS | 0.304 | 0.339 | 0.035 | 0.261 | 6.9% | 80.8% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.302 | 0.297 | -0.005 | 0.215 | 16.5% | 84.0% |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.257 | 0.265 | 0.008 | 0.221 | 7.8% | 87.4% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.286 | 0.282 | -0.004 | 0.198 | 11.7% | 87.0% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.296 | 0.319 | 0.023 | 0.283 | 10.4% | 81.2% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.318 | 0.297 | -0.021 | 0.198 | 4.8% | 91.3% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.293 | 0.284 | -0.009 | 0.195 | 6.4% | 90.2% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.292 | 0.330 | 0.038 | 0.242 | 5.7% | 87.7% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.286 | 0.289 | 0.003 | 0.209 | 4.0% | 87.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.299 | 0.380 | 0.081 | 0.212 | 4.9% | 87.8% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.296 | 0.282 | -0.014 | 0.189 | 12.8% | 89.7% |
Chris Sale has a decent BABIP profile due to a great Z-Contact% and a career .289 BABIP. His .259 BABIP has greatly regressed already. It was below .200 over his first nine starts and pretty obviously unsustainable, though we didn’t expect .318 over his last 10.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There’s one obvious top arm overall where there might be one other who joins him in terms of projected value tonight. Then well below that, it feels like there are four more interchangeable arms (considering price) before another drop off to pitchers that I’d just rather not bother with on a strong board tonight. With that being said, we’re going to ditch the traditional tiers today and just present the two groups. They’re pretty much all on the high end I’m sorry to say.
Top Projected Values
Jose Fernandez (1) carries the highest price tag, but with his amazing stuff, is still going to be the top valued pitcher no matter which NL offense he’s facing at home most likely. The only other pitcher even considered in his league on a point per dollar basis even is facing the Braves. He’s also catching the Cardinals, a likely very tired team (and it’s showing in their offense over the last week), at the right time.
Aaron Nola (2t) is a struggling pitcher with talent. While the initial inclination would be to pass on him until we see things start to turn around, all bets are off when you see the Braves next to the name of a talented pitcher, especially when you see him sitting on the middle of the board. I’m more than willing to accept the higher risk at a lower price in a great matchup on a short slate, specifically on a two pitcher site. He may also answer the question presented above about how to stack the Boston offense against Weaver and still afford a reasonable pitcher.
Additional Pitchers of Interest
Chris Sale (2t) has seen his price tag reduce over the past month or so while his SwStr% has skyrocketed over that period. Overall it’s been very up and down with more frequent hard contact a concern, while he may also be in tonight’s worst spot against a club that mashes lefties in Wrigley.
John Lackey (5t) has struggled over the last month or, like several of the pitchers here, but is still having a strong season and is in a good spot tonight at home against the White Sox. He’s a more attractive option for $8.6K on FanDuel, but much more marginal for $1.5K more on DraftKings where the Win matters less too.
Johnny Cueto (2t) has given you six innings 90% of the time this year and usually even more, while he’s in a good spot at home where he’s allowed just two HRs and pitched at an All Star level quality. However, he’s the second highest priced pitcher on either site where there’s a level of dependence on batted ball outcomes that there’s a questionable level of comfort with at that cost.
David Price (5t) has been very unpredictable in recent starts and is facing an offense that doesn’t often strike out and is pretty decent against LHP. He does so in a decent park however, and what’s the difference between his brand of unpredictable and Hamels for the same cost? Only seven points of K-BB%.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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