Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, May 25th
It’s not that there isn’t any talent on the mound on Wednesday (Matz, Arrieta, Kluber, Nola, Quintana), but they’re all going during the afternoon. The best advice to making daily fantasy lineups tonight is to draw up your offense and then fill out your pitcher(s) with whatever’s left over. Wright, Estrada, Kazmir, Iwakuma, and Andriese are the most expensive pitchers on the night slate with just single pitcher over $9K on either site. Let’s try to salvage something here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Bettis | COL | 1.9 | 4.04 | 5.9 | 1.83 | 1.07 | 4.18 | 2.98 | BOS | 135 | 127 | 134 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.8 | 3.7 | 6.12 | 1.29 | 1.01 | 3.82 | 4.18 | BAL | 109 | 115 | 77 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | -6.2 | 4.59 | 5.38 | 0.98 | 0.9 | 4.49 | 4.31 | LOS | 87 | 92 | 82 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -6.5 | 3.31 | 6.28 | 1.57 | 0.9 | 3.39 | 5.06 | OAK | 100 | 89 | 61 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -1.5 | 4.3 | 5.51 | 1.88 | 1.02 | 4.71 | 3.22 | TOR | 94 | 94 | 91 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 3.2 | 4.28 | 5.85 | 1.85 | 0.95 | 3.91 | 4.94 | ARI | 105 | 116 | 92 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -8.4 | 3.75 | 6.25 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 4.04 | 3.35 | ATL | 64 | 74 | 75 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 2.1 | 5.77 | 6.06 | 1.21 | 0.97 | 5.1 | 6.54 | TAM | 88 | 127 | 128 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.7 | 4.37 | 6.09 | 0.64 | 1.02 | 4.66 | 3.76 | NYY | 102 | 97 | 118 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.1 | 4.19 | 5.11 | 1.29 | 0.97 | 4.02 | 4.55 | FLA | 109 | 99 | 91 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -4.8 | 4.21 | 5.54 | 0.78 | 0.96 | 4.85 | 4.22 | MIL | 74 | 91 | 40 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | -7.1 | 4.1 | 5.77 | 1.49 | 0.95 | 4.28 | 3.73 | PIT | 122 | 116 | 109 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 2.9 | 3.93 | 5.89 | 1.11 | 0.9 | 4.05 | 4.77 | CIN | 63 | 91 | 38 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 3.9 | 4.09 | 6.17 | 1.18 | 1.07 | 4.68 | 4.25 | COL | 89 | 88 | 47 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | -2.8 | 4.99 | 5.32 | 1.51 | 1.01 | 4.7 | 5.89 | HOU | 94 | 98 | 50 |
| Zachary Neal | OAK | -14.2 | 3.64 | 1 | 0.9 | 3.82 | 3.64 | SEA | 98 | 113 | 116 |
Collin McHugh may be one of several mediocre, but necessary evils tonight. He is coming off his best start of the season, striking out eight of 27 White Sox, allowing just two runs in seven innings. The season has been a massive disappointment so far, though his ERA estimators aren’t that far above last season’s. His batted ball and contact rates are all nearly replicas of 2015, while he’s exchanged just a few ground balls for flies, but has the same 25% hard hit rate. The Orioles were thought to be beastly against RHP, but have struggled against soft tossing righties in a similar mold (Shoemaker, Weaver, Fister) all within the last five days. While the power must still be respected, we’re beyond looking for perfect matchups tonight.
Hisashi Iwakuma has allowed fewer than three runs in just two of his last eight starts. His walk rate is two points above his career rate, while his strikeout rate is two points below. This is clearly an aging pitcher in decline and one who is probably below average at this point. It’s strange that this is the season his normally high HR rate has normalized, though an increase in fly balls will generally end up meaning the same amount of HRs. The park should help him somewhat and Safeco plus a favorable matchup make him someone to consider tonight. Although the strikeouts look like they’ve ticked back up over the last month, it was just one start against Houston. Oakland has recently lost their top LH bat though, and was below average against RHP before that.
Ivan Nova has not allowed more than one run in any start and even made through six innings in Oakland last time out before being pulled after just 62 pitches. Hey, when you have the bullpen the Yankees do? He’s struck out a total of eight over three starts and just 12.3% of batters overall, though his SwStr% projects just a bit better. What he has done is force contact on the ground on two-thirds of batted balls. That’s not a rate we’d expect him to sustain, but he has been above 50% before. The Blue Jays are average. They’ve walked a bit more vs RHP (9.5%), but also struck out more than average (22.9%). They have been hitting the ball a lot harder over the last week (18.2 HR/FB, 38.9 Hard%).
Junior Guerra has gone at least six innings in all three starts and struck out 11 of 28 Cubs in his most recent one. He’s been better than expected with a strikeout rate that now sits at 24.7%, backed up by a 13.0 SwStr%. Contact, however, has been mostly in the air (0.78 GB/FB) and a bit harder than you would like (35.4 Hard%). The Braves have improved a little, but are still the worst home offense (4.1 HR/FB) and 3rd worst against RHP (4.6 HR/FB, 3.5 Hard-Soft%).
Mike Foltynewicz has sandwiched two terrible starts (6.2 IP – 15 H – 9 ER – 4 HR – 2 BB – 5 K – 38 BF) around two strong ones (15 IP – 12 H – 2 ER – 1 HR – 0 BB – 12 K – 55 BF). The key standout is a 2.2 BB% and that he hasn’t allowed a free pass in three starts. Despite a nearly 95 mph fastball, he fails to get swings and misses at a league average rate, but immaculate control, which he’s never really shown before at any level, will keep him in the game. Five of his 27 fly balls have left the yard, but he hasn’t been hit all that hard (5.5 Hard-Soft%). Milwaukee has some power (15.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but strikes out a ton (26.9% on the road, 27.6% vs RHP, and 33.5% over the last week). They can push his mediocre strikeout rate up to one of the highest projected one tonight.
Rubby de la Rosa has seemingly solved his issue with LHBs with his wOBA dropping over 150 points against them and just one HR allowed (20 last year), though all it looks like he’s doing is throwing his slider more instead of his changeup. That’s not the concern against a mostly RH Pittsburgh lineup today. They don’t strike out often (18.1 K% vs RHP) and walk a lot (9.1 BB%). His control has been about average (8.2 BB%). This is one of the more difficult matchups outside of Boston.
Scott Kazmir walked seven Padres in his last start. I didn’t know it was even possible to walk seven Padres. It marks the 3rd time he’s walked at least four, though he has just five walks in his other six starts combined. He also allowed two more HRs. I didn’t know it was even possible to allow multiple HRs to the Padres. That’s seven HRs in his last four games and 12 on the year. Here’s the really strange thing. He has one of the lowest exit velocities in the league (84.7 mph) and a -1.3 Hard-Soft%. The Reds are the worst road offense in baseball and it’s not even close (16.3 K-BB%, 6.0 HR/FB) and ice cold over the last week (20.2 K-BB%). They represent one of tonight’s top matchups.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Steven Wright (.250 BABIP – 75.7 LOB% – 5.7 HR/FB) is what passes for a premium pitcher tonight, the highest price tag on either site. If we can accept that knuckleballers don’t conform to normal rules and even give him the low BABIP, a HR rate half the average is tougher to concede. He has been going deeper into games (at least seven in three of his last five) and is missing more bats than expected, so it’s not the worst look on the tonight’s board, but still a pretty severe overpay in a tough park. Eight of his 15 ERs allowed this year have come in his last two starts.
Marco Estrada (.231 BABIP – 76.5 LOB% – 6.7 HR/FB) is one of two pitchers above $8K on both sites. The Yankees are not such an imposing lineup this year, but can still put that ball over the RF wall at Yankee Stadium. I can even grant him a BABIP just twenty something points below his career average, but the HR rate has never been special. He’s a fly ball pitcher who has allowed well over 20 in fewer than 200 innings in each of the last two seasons.
Matt Andriese (.167 BABIP – 76.9 LOB% – 3.8 HR/FB) has numbers that seem to speak for themselves over his first three starts. His ERA and estimators were both two runs higher than his current ERA in 65.2 major league innings last year and it doesn’t look like much has changed. His K% is a few points lower with a similar SwStr%, but even that was nothing special last year. He doesn’t have a particularly strong matchup and should be much cheaper.
Dan Straily (.230 BABIP – 85.2 LOB% – 10.0 HR/FB) has shown decent bat missing skills and while we preach the importance of that in daily fantasy, you can’t only be good at that among the things a pitcher most controls, while creating the illusion of other respectable skills in a low ERA hidden well behind a low BABIP and high strand rate. An 11.6 BB% has kept him from going more than six innings just once and has probably even kept his K% from being all it could be. The Dodgers haven’t been good, but still have some power in that lineup and walks lead to multi-run homers against teams with power. Multi-run homers ruin outings and this is a fly ball pitcher with a league average HR rate, who has allowed 44 of them in 307.2 career innings.
Tyler Wilson (.237 BABIP – 73.2 LOB% – 9.5 HR/FB) has an 11.9 K%, which only looks reasonable against the guy directly below.
Justin Nicolino (.233 BABIP – 68.1 LOB% – 8.1 HR/FB) has a 3.1 SwStr%. He has started five games and struck out six batters. He has an 18.9 Hard-Soft%, but somehow manages to find more gloves than the average pitcher so far. Tampa Bay has been a force vs LHP.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jeff Locke has pitched decently in three of his last five starts, but against Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Colorado (though in Colorado). He still has a 4.0 K-BB% and although in a good park, faces a strong RH offense that has pummeled LH pitching (37.8 Hard%, 18.7 HR/FB). Going from Arizona to Pittsburgh will dampen their expectation, but with an added 9.7 BB% vs LHP, I’m expecting at least a double digit walk rate in this one and unlike Liriano, he doesn’t really have the talent to strikeout his way out of big jams.
Chad Bettis is facing the Red Sox. He might as well be pitching in Colorado.
Zachary Neal is a 27 year old former 17th round pick in 2010. He made his major league debut on May 11th, pitching three innings of relief in Boston, allowing just three runs (that may be a victory in Boston). He’s since returned to the minors to make one start in which he struck out one of 22 batters. It was the 2nd start in three at AAA this month where he struck out one. His season high in seven starts is five, done just once. The A’s don’t really have a lot of options right now and at least he’s only walked four this year.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.5% | Road | 17.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 3.7% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.1% | Home | 20.5% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 7.1% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 19.6% | 11.5% | Road | 21.3% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 12.0% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 21.5% | 4.2% | Home | 21.1% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 7.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 14.6% | 6.7% | Home | 14.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 2.4% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.7% | 8.4% | Home | 18.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 7.4% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 23.5% | 7.8% | Road | 21.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 6.8% | 7.3% | Road | 8.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 11.1% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.8% | Road | 20.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 9.1% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 16.7% | 6.4% | Home | 18.6% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 3.8% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 18.8% | 6.6% | Home | 17.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 18.8% | 7.9% | Road | 18.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 9.4% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.0% | 7.6% | Home | 21.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 12.9% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.2% | Home | 19.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 10.3% | 7.0% | Road | 9.9% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 7.6% |
| Zachary Neal | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.4% | 0.0% | Road | 15.4% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 0.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 17.4% | 9.4% | RH | 19.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.8% | 10.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.0% | 6.9% | RH | 22.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 26.2% | 6.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 18.7% | 8.5% | RH | 19.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.6% | 11.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.6% | 6.3% | RH | 18.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.9% | 9.0% | RH | 22.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 18.3% | 7.6% | LH | 19.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 14.0% | 8.3% |
| Braves | Home | 22.1% | 7.8% | RH | 19.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 15.9% | 8.6% |
| Rays | Home | 24.7% | 7.6% | LH | 22.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.8% | 9.2% | RH | 18.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.6% | 8.1% | RH | 19.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.9% | 10.3% | RH | 27.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 33.5% | 8.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.6% | 9.4% | RH | 18.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 14.4% | 6.3% |
| Reds | Road | 22.8% | 6.5% | LH | 19.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 25.4% | 5.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 21.0% | 6.3% | RH | 18.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.0% | 5.1% |
| Astros | Home | 26.0% | 11.3% | RH | 25.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 26.6% | 6.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.7% | 9.7% | RH | 19.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.0% | 9.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 2016 | 32.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | Road | 30.1% | 11.6% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 25.4% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 2016 | 25.5% | 9.7% | 3.8% | Home | 22.8% | 8.2% | 0.2% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 6.7% | 9.5% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 27.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 2016 | 29.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% | Road | 28.3% | 12.9% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.4% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 2016 | 27.4% | 9.7% | 12.5% | Home | 28.5% | 14.6% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 10.0% | 16.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.6% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 2016 | 29.4% | 21.1% | 12.7% | Home | 29.6% | 13.0% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | L2 Years | 27.6% | 12.8% | 7.5% | 2016 | 25.7% | 13.6% | 12.5% | Home | 25.8% | 9.9% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.9% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 2016 | 35.4% | 7.4% | 16.9% | Road | 23.3% | 16.7% | -3.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 7.7% | 30.0% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.1% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 2016 | 36.8% | 8.1% | 18.9% | Road | 25.6% | 7.1% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 48.7% | 13.3% | 37.9% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 2016 | 32.6% | 6.7% | 13.8% | Road | 30.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 32.5% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 2016 | 31.2% | 3.8% | 18.1% | Home | 30.4% | 10.9% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 4.8% | 14.3% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 30.4% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 2016 | 28.8% | 18.5% | 5.5% | Home | 29.9% | 10.6% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 9.1% | -2.5% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.9% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 2016 | 31.4% | 13.5% | 11.1% | Road | 24.9% | 14.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.3% | -2.9% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.8% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 2016 | 21.9% | 20.7% | -1.3% | Home | 22.7% | 5.8% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 25.0% | -14.6% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.0% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 2016 | 27.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | Home | 32.7% | 7.2% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 7.1% | 10.0% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.7% | 6.3% | 12.6% | 2016 | 27.9% | 9.5% | 6.6% | Road | 32.9% | 6.7% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 9.1% | 25.0% |
| Zachary Neal | Athletics | L2 Years | 36.4% | 25.0% | 9.1% | 2016 | 36.4% | 25.0% | 9.1% | Road | 36.4% | 25.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 25.0% | 9.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 33.1% | 12.8% | 14.4% | RH | 33.2% | 12.9% | 14.6% | L7Days | 34.9% | 13.5% | 15.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 30.9% | 16.8% | 12.6% | RH | 31.1% | 16.5% | 10.4% | L7Days | 27.7% | 14.9% | 6.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 30.7% | 13.0% | 12.0% | RH | 32.6% | 10.1% | 15.6% | L7Days | 33.3% | 7.6% | 17.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.2% | 12.3% | 10.4% | RH | 29.9% | 10.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 25.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.2% | 13.2% | 12.4% | RH | 33.5% | 13.4% | 16.9% | L7Days | 38.9% | 18.2% | 25.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.9% | 12.0% | 12.2% | LH | 37.8% | 18.7% | 20.3% | L7Days | 27.6% | 13.3% | 11.7% |
| Braves | Home | 29.3% | 4.1% | 11.1% | RH | 24.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | L7Days | 27.0% | 10.0% | 1.8% |
| Rays | Home | 32.8% | 13.5% | 12.1% | LH | 32.8% | 15.5% | 16.6% | L7Days | 28.4% | 15.4% | 9.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 25.4% | 12.6% | 3.7% | RH | 23.9% | 14.2% | 5.8% | L7Days | 21.2% | 11.9% | 2.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 28.7% | 11.5% | 4.5% | RH | 27.6% | 11.3% | 4.2% | L7Days | 27.3% | 13.2% | 4.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 27.8% | 12.9% | 7.5% | RH | 31.3% | 15.9% | 12.1% | L7Days | 32.0% | 9.8% | 9.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 27.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | RH | 27.7% | 9.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 30.6% | 6.0% | 10.6% |
| Reds | Road | 29.9% | 6.0% | 11.3% | LH | 27.8% | 14.3% | 13.9% | L7Days | 32.2% | 12.1% | 17.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.8% | 14.1% | 9.7% | RH | 30.6% | 11.0% | 12.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.3% | -5.1% |
| Astros | Home | 35.6% | 12.7% | 19.8% | RH | 34.3% | 14.9% | 17.0% | L7Days | 33.8% | 13.6% | 15.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 26.5% | 13.2% | 5.7% | RH | 30.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% | L7Days | 30.8% | 13.8% | 11.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Bettis | COL | 18.0% | 7.7% | 2.34 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 2.58 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 17.9% | 9.3% | 1.92 | 18.9% | 9.3% | 2.03 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 20.6% | 10.7% | 1.93 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 1.89 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.07 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 2.07 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 12.3% | 8.0% | 1.54 | 9.3% | 6.4% | 1.45 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.82 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 2.38 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 24.7% | 13.0% | 1.90 | 24.7% | 13.0% | 1.90 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.58 | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.58 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 24.2% | 11.0% | 2.20 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 1.97 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 14.1% | 8.3% | 1.70 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 1.70 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 18.3% | 7.6% | 2.41 | 18.3% | 7.6% | 2.41 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 24.7% | 11.1% | 2.23 | 25.5% | 11.4% | 2.24 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.15 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 2.10 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 21.8% | 11.6% | 1.88 | 22.2% | 11.5% | 1.93 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 11.9% | 5.7% | 2.09 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 2.26 |
| Zachary Neal | OAK | 15.4% | 7.7% | 2.00 | 15.4% | 7.7% | 2.00 |
Ivan Nova – His SwStr% in his three starts has been even lower than his poor marks as a reliever. After 9.9% in his first start, his output has been 4.1% and 6.5% in his most recent starts. His overall 8.0 SwStr% is exactly his career rate which has garnered a 16.9 K%. None of its really good, but it might be better and could be useful combined with a high ground ball rate.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Bettis | COL | 4.18 | 3.81 | -0.37 | 3.6 | -0.58 | 3.7 | -0.48 | 4.83 | 3.44 | -1.39 | 3.26 | -1.57 | 3.09 | -1.74 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 5.13 | 4.17 | -0.96 | 4.27 | -0.86 | 3.86 | -1.27 | 3.82 | 4.01 | 0.19 | 4.02 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 0.58 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 2.85 | 4.54 | 1.69 | 4.7 | 1.85 | 4.41 | 1.56 | 2.45 | 4.69 | 2.24 | 4.72 | 2.27 | 4.39 | 1.94 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 4.39 | 4.26 | -0.13 | 4.31 | -0.08 | 3.96 | -0.43 | 4.91 | 4.14 | -0.77 | 4.12 | -0.79 | 3.74 | -1.17 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 3.26 | 3.03 | -0.23 | 3.55 | 0.29 | 4.28 | 1.02 | 2.86 | 3.34 | 0.48 | 3.81 | 0.95 | 5.11 | 2.25 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 5 | 5.05 | 0.05 | 4.82 | -0.18 | 5.02 | 0.02 | 4.02 | 4.31 | 0.29 | 4.23 | 0.21 | 4.24 | 0.22 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 3.96 | 3.76 | -0.2 | 3.8 | -0.16 | 3.14 | -0.82 | 3.96 | 3.76 | -0.2 | 3.8 | -0.16 | 3.14 | -0.82 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 4.3 | 6.23 | 1.93 | 5.76 | 1.46 | 5.11 | 0.81 | 4.3 | 6.23 | 1.93 | 5.76 | 1.46 | 5.11 | 0.81 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.61 | 3.89 | 1.28 | 4.05 | 1.44 | 3.24 | 0.63 | 2.67 | 4.02 | 1.35 | 4.12 | 1.45 | 3.51 | 0.84 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 2.11 | 4.77 | 2.66 | 4.79 | 2.68 | 3.48 | 1.37 | 2.11 | 4.77 | 2.66 | 4.79 | 2.68 | 3.48 | 1.37 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.57 | 3.79 | -0.78 | 3.86 | -0.71 | 4.91 | 0.34 | 4.57 | 3.8 | -0.77 | 3.86 | -0.71 | 4.91 | 0.34 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 3.53 | 3.5 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 0.11 | 3.8 | 0.27 | 2.03 | 3.58 | 1.55 | 3.58 | 1.55 | 3.02 | 0.99 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 5.23 | 4.16 | -1.07 | 4.42 | -0.81 | 5.67 | 0.44 | 4.41 | 4.08 | -0.33 | 4.37 | -0.04 | 5.48 | 1.07 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 2.52 | 4.08 | 1.56 | 4.09 | 1.57 | 3.27 | 0.75 | 3.15 | 3.99 | 0.84 | 4.05 | 0.9 | 3.12 | -0.03 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 3.68 | 4.87 | 1.19 | 4.78 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 0.72 | 4.18 | 5.15 | 0.97 | 5.11 | 0.93 | 4.84 | 0.66 |
| Zachary Neal | OAK | 9 | 3.64 | -5.36 | 3.82 | -5.18 | 6.06 | -2.94 | 9 | 3.64 | -5.36 | 3.82 | -5.18 | 6.06 | -2.94 |
Collin McHugh still has a high BABIP despite a strong profile below and infrequent hard contact as mentioned above. That, along with an improved performance over the last month give some hope he can be at least a decent back end of the rotation arm. The BABIP has been below .300 in three of his last five starts.
Mike Foltynewicz has an 18.5 HR/FB that should settle down, but he’s balanced it slightly with an 82.6 LOB% that should regress as well.
Scott Kazmir has a 20.7 HR/FB, but has never had a HR problem before. In fact he’s halfway to his career high (25) already.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.317 | 0.291 | -0.026 | 0.227 | 2.2% | 84.6% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.313 | 0.365 | 0.052 | 0.186 | 11.3% | 87.2% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.292 | 0.230 | -0.062 | 0.192 | 10.0% | 84.2% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.270 | 0.325 | 0.055 | 0.216 | 16.1% | 89.9% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.299 | 0.265 | -0.034 | 0.147 | 10.5% | 91.8% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.293 | 0.302 | 0.009 | 0.181 | 2.3% | 85.4% |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.304 | 0.254 | -0.05 | 0.238 | 7.4% | 81.0% |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 0.307 | 0.233 | -0.074 | 0.184 | 5.4% | 94.1% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.280 | 0.231 | -0.049 | 0.148 | 8.3% | 86.0% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.275 | 0.167 | -0.108 | 0.131 | 7.7% | 90.4% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.299 | 0.324 | 0.025 | 0.222 | 7.4% | 88.4% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.312 | 0.230 | -0.082 | 0.155 | 10.8% | 87.1% |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0.265 | 0.259 | -0.006 | 0.191 | 10.3% | 83.6% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.292 | 0.250 | -0.042 | 0.221 | 0.0% | 77.2% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 0.296 | 0.237 | -0.059 | 0.205 | 9.5% | 93.6% |
| Zachary Neal | OAK | 0.304 | 0.300 | -0.004 | 0.273 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Hisashi Iwakuma has the highest BABIP of his career. In fact, it’s never been above .290. His 21.6 LD% is a career high, but that’s just league average and his 10 IFFBs are already half way to his career high. While his Z-Contact% is high, it’s right at his career rate. There are a few more fly balls, but that doesn’t even correlate with a higher BABIP and he’s not even being hit harder with hard and soft contact rates at career rates. The defense has been poor, but excelled in limiting hits on balls in play. The prognosis is that this part of his game should improve at least.
Junior Guerra is going to have a difficult time retaining such a low BABIP. His high LD and hard contact rates are in conflict, though he has a surprisingly low zone contact rate.
Rubby de la Rosa has a BABIP more than 50 points lower than last year and his career rate. He’s generating a few more ground balls (52.6%) with a low line drive rate, but not necessarily weak contact overall (31.4 Hard%). His overall profile and indicators are fine, but nothing that would suggest strong suppression skills. The higher GB rate should help him in the HR department, but the BABIP should rise significantly.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It was mentioned in the opening paragraph, but could probably stand to be said again. There are no pitchers you are building around today. See what’s left over after your offensive needs are met and make due. Only one of tonight’s pitchers might qualify for being above a Tier Four arm on a normal day. For once though, it looks like DraftKings has lower prices nearly across the board.
Value Tier One
Junior Guerra – I don’t really want to say he’s the sneaky arm that stands out today because, on a good day, he might make the top of the 3rd tier and much of his damage was done in his last start. His first three were much more mediocre. Of some concern also, his velocity has dropped slightly in each start. He does have one of tonight’s top matchups, though I did expect and hope he was going to be a bit cheaper.
Value Tier Two
Hisashi Iwakuma is no longer an above average pitcher, but is in an above average spot. A great park might help slow the decline. Unfortunately, he’s the 2nd highest cost on FanDuel, where it’s even more difficult to find standout pitching.
Collin McHugh has shown some positive signs over the last month and particularly in his last start. A matchup with the Orioles in a small park is not ideal, but not much is today and they have struggled against similar pitchers recently.
Value Tier Three
Scott Kazmir is one of the more expensive pitchers, who hasn’t given us a lot of reasons to trust him. Seriously, he allowed two HRs and seven walks to the Padres in his last outing. He might be in an even better spot tonight though.
Mike Foltynewicz is not the pitcher we want and may not even be a closer more than a starter in the future, but he may be the arm we need today. The Brewers have a massive strikeout rate and he carries a below average price tag.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Ivan Nova – Let’s be clear. There is no way I’m considering this pitcher against Toronto or really any other team in Yankee Stadium on most nights and probably won’t need to drop down this far today, but if for some reason you need to, most others in his price range near the bottom (especially on DraftKings) look even worse. He should at least keep most the action on the ground. The stuff he doesn’t could cause problems though.
Rubby de la Rosa is not in a good spot and the Pirates will be patient against his occasionally questionable control, but he’s tied for the highest K% on the board this year and has a below average cost on FanDuel.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window