Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today | Best Home Run Bets on Polymarket (Sept 1)
September baseball means every swing counts a little more, and with the Dodgers holding a firm grip on the NL West and the Brewers stretching their lead over the Cubs in the NL Central, Tuesday’s 15-game slate is loaded with power bats trying to make noise for teams still fighting for October. This piece runs through the best MLB home run predictions today across every single matchup, ranking the top five bats by implied Yes price in each game and naming a best home run bet for each one.
Every price below comes straight off Polymarket’s home run prop board, along with the current Polymarket promo code: GRINDERS, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Padres vs Reds
San Diego is still scrapping for a wild card spot, and Great American Ballpark’s short porches make this a fun spot for power on both sides.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 25%, No 76%): the highest price in this game, and his combination of bat speed and launch angle fits this ballpark perfectly.
- Manny Machado (1+ HR: Yes 21%, No 80%): a consistent middle-of-the-order power source all year.
- Elly De La Cruz (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): explosive bat speed that plays up in a small park like this one.
- JJ Bleday (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): quietly having a productive power season for Cincinnati.
- Sal Stewart (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 83%): a young bat trending upward as he gets more everyday reps.
Best bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. Beyond simply being the top price, he’s the most explosive hitter on this field and Great American Ballpark’s compact dimensions play directly into his all-fields power. San Diego needs offense every night right now, which should keep him aggressive early in counts.
Giants vs Pirates
The Giants are already out of the playoff picture, but Rafael Devers has kept swinging like the games matter, and Pittsburgh’s rotation gives him another shot tonight.
- Rafael Devers (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): the clear top price in this game and his lefty pull power travels well on the road.
- Brandon Lowe (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): a middle-of-the-order bat who has provided steady pop all season.
- Oneil Cruz (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 17%): the Pirates’ biggest raw power threat, capable of hitting one out of any park.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (1+ HR: Yes 11%, No 13%): a developing power bat still building his home run track record.
- Bryan Reynolds (1+ HR: Yes 10%, No 92%): more of a contact-and-gap hitter, so this price reflects real but modest pop.
Best bet: Rafael Devers. He is not just the highest price on the board, he is also the most proven power bat in this lineup by a wide margin, and a lineup built around him gives him plenty of pitches to drive. Even on a Giants team playing out the string, his bat-to-ball power hasn’t slowed down.
Mets vs Rays
Tampa Bay has held onto the top spot in the AL East, and their compact current home ballpark keeps producing eye-catching home run prices for a young, physical lineup.
- Junior Caminero (1+ HR: Yes 24%, No 78%): the top price on the board by a wide margin, backed by some of the loudest exit velocity numbers in the sport.
- Juan Soto (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 21%): one of the most complete hitters in baseball, a threat to go deep in any at bat.
- Francisco Lindor (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 16%): a steady power source from the leadoff spot all season.
- Yandy Diaz (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 16%): a contact-oriented hitter whose occasional pop still shows up at this price point.
- Ryan Vilade (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 89%): a versatile bat who has carved out a everyday role with real power upside.
Best bet: Junior Caminero. The gap between him and the field here is the widest of any game on the slate, and it lines up with real scouting substance: he’s already one of the hardest-hitting young bats in the league. Add in a small, hitter-friendly home park and this is one of the more straightforward calls on the board tonight.
Blue Jays vs Guardians
Toronto is trying to hold position in a crowded AL wild card chase, and this Cleveland lineup has a couple of underrated power bats worth watching.
- Jo Adell (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 86%): the top price tonight thanks to his raw exit velocity numbers.
- Kazuma Okamoto (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): a middle-of-the-order bat who punishes mistakes.
- Jose Ramirez (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 17%): Cleveland’s most consistent power threat over a full season.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 12%, No 89%): Toronto’s biggest bat, capable of carrying a lineup on any given night.
- George Springer (1+ HR: Yes 11%, No 13%): a veteran presence who still does damage against fastballs.
Best bet: Jo Adell. His price sits on top for a reason: his bat speed and pull-side power give him one of the higher home run probabilities in this matchup regardless of opponent. He has also settled into a middle-of-the-order role that means more at bats with runners on and pitchers forced to be careful.
Mariners vs Red Sox
Boston keeps churning out lineup depth, and Fenway’s quirky dimensions, especially the short line down the right field pole, make this a lineup worth watching for pull-side power.
- Wilyer Abreu (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 87%): the top price here, and as a lefty pull hitter he benefits the most from Fenway’s short porch in right.
- Dominic Canzone (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 90%): a versatile bat who has chipped in pop from multiple lineup spots.
- Julio Rodriguez (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 89%): Seattle’s most talented all-around hitter, capable of a big night at any moment.
- Roman Anthony (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 90%): one of Boston’s top young bats, still growing into his power.
- Randy Arozarena (1+ HR: Yes 12%, No 90%): a proven power threat who has had big moments in this ballpark before.
Best bet: Wilyer Abreu. The price gap over the field here is real, and it lines up with a genuine park advantage: he’s a lefty who can drop one over Pesky’s Pole with a short, compact swing. That combination of skill set and ballpark fit is exactly the kind of edge worth trading on.
Braves vs Nationals
Washington is out of contention and playing spoiler, while Atlanta still has meaningful games left on the schedule with Matt Olson leading the charge.
- Matt Olson (1+ HR: Yes 26%, No 75%): the highest price on this entire slate so far, built on a season of elite raw power.
- Drake Baldwin (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): a breakout power bat who has forced his way into the middle of the order.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 21%, No 81%): elite bat speed that translates to homers in bunches when he’s locked in.
- Michael Harris II (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 20%): a five-tool talent whose power has continued to develop.
- Abimelec Ortiz (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 87%): a developing power bat for a Nationals team still evaluating its young hitters.
Best bet: Matt Olson. This isn’t just the top price on the board tonight, it’s the single highest home run probability in the entire slate, a reflection of how consistently he’s driven the ball out of the park all season. Facing a Nationals pitching staff that’s mixing in younger arms down the stretch only adds to the appeal.
Tigers vs Twins
Detroit and Minnesota are both trying to string together quality at bats down the stretch, and Target Field’s neutral dimensions make this one of the more balanced power matchups on the slate.
- Kody Clemens (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 17%): the top price tonight after a recent stretch of hard contact.
- Dillon Dingler (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 88%): a catcher whose power has quietly improved as the season has gone on.
- Spencer Torkelson (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 88%): a former top prospect whose raw power still shows up in flashes.
- Josh Bell (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 88%): a switch hitter with genuine pop from both sides of the plate.
- Royce Lewis (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 90%): an explosive, if injury-interrupted, talent who can change a game with one swing.
Best bet: Kody Clemens. His price leads the field here and it tracks with the way he’s been squaring up the ball lately, not just recent variance. A Twins pitching staff leaning on its bullpen in low-leverage stretches this time of year gives him a reasonable look at mistakes to drive.
Marlins vs Royals
Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the league with its deep gaps, which makes tonight’s top prices stand out even more.
- Kyle Stowers (1+ HR: Yes 21%, No 80%): the top price on the board and Miami’s most productive power bat by a clear margin this season.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): an all-around superstar whose power has become a bigger part of his game every year.
- Heriberto Hernandez (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 83%): a developing bat who’s shown legitimate raw strength in limited exposure.
- Jac Caglione (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): a young Marlins hitter making the most of everyday at bats.
- Carter Jensen (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 84%): a catching prospect whose power has stood out in his rookie season.
Best bet: Kyle Stowers. He’s the top price for good reason: he’s been Miami’s primary source of thump in the middle of the order for months now, not a one-week hot streak. Even in a park that generally suppresses power, a hitter with his bat speed can still clear the gaps.
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Brewers vs Cubs
Milwaukee has been steadily pulling away from Chicago in the NL Central race, and Wrigley’s wind-dependent power alleys always add a wildcard element to this rivalry.
- Seiya Suzuki (1+ HR: Yes 24%, No 77%): the top price by a healthy margin, and he’s been Chicago’s most dependable power source at home all year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 23%): a dynamic athlete whose power has taken a real step forward this season.
- Jackson Chourio (1+ HR: Yes 21%, No 22%): Milwaukee’s most electric bat, dangerous in any count.
- Alex Bregman (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 84%): a proven veteran presence who still punishes pitches left over the plate.
- William Contreras (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 17%): a switch hitter with legitimate power from both sides.
Best bet: Seiya Suzuki. He tops the board here and it’s not simply because he’s the home hitter, he’s been Chicago’s most consistent source of pull-side power at Wrigley all season. With Milwaukee pulling away in the standings, Chicago’s lineup has extra incentive to swing early and often against a Brewers bullpen that’s had to work overtime lately.
Athletics vs Rangers
Oakland is out of the race, but Texas has stayed competitive behind Corey Seager‘s steady production in a lineup that’s needed him every night.
- Corey Seager (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 85%): the top price tonight and the most complete hitter on either roster.
- Jake Burger (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): a big-bodied slugger who does damage when he connects.
- Wyatt Langford (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 88%): a young, athletic bat still tapping into his full power potential.
- Brandon Nimmo (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 88%): a professional hitter who adds occasional pop to a patient approach.
- Jonah Heim (1+ HR: Yes 12%, No 91%): a catcher who has provided reliable pop from the bottom of the order.
Best bet: Corey Seager. The top price here reflects more than a single hot week, he’s been Texas’ most consistent all-around threat throughout the season. A retractable roof keeps the ball carrying well regardless of outside conditions, which only helps a hitter of his caliber.
White Sox vs Astros
Houston’s home ballpark and its short Crawford Boxes in left field make this one of the friendliest home run environments on the entire slate.
- Yordan Alvarez (1+ HR: Yes 24%, No 77%): the top price by a wide margin, built on elite pull-side power and a ballpark that rewards exactly that.
- Munetaka Murakami (1+ HR: Yes 23%, No 79%): imported bat speed and raw strength that translates well to MLB pitching.
- Colson Montgomery (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): a young infielder whose power has grown as he’s settled into the league.
- Miguel Vargas (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 83%): a versatile bat with legitimate over-the-fence pop.
- Christian Walker (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 86%): a veteran slugger who has provided steady production all season.
Best bet: Yordan Alvarez. This is the clearest case on the slate of a price backed by both skill and environment: he’s an elite pull-power hitter playing in the one park practically built for exactly that. The Crawford Boxes have turned would-be doubles into homers for lefty and righty pull hitters alike, and few hitters in baseball pull the ball with more authority than he does.
Orioles vs Rockies
Colorado is out of contention, but nobody escapes Coors Field’s thin air unaffected, and the board reflects it with two hitters tied at the top.
- Pete Alonso (1+ HR: Yes 21%, No 23%): tied for the top price and one of the most established single-season home run threats in the league.
- Hunter Goodman (1+ HR: Yes 21%, No 22%): a Rockies bat that has taken full advantage of playing half its games at altitude.
- Samuel Basallo (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 83%): a young, physically gifted hitter with real over-the-fence power.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 19%): a strong-bodied hitter who has produced consistent pop this year.
- Mickey Moniak (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 16%): a former top prospect finally settling into a productive power role.
Best bet: Pete Alonso. Tied at the top of the board, but his track record of elite, sustained home run production over a full season tips this toward him over a Coors-aided platform bat. Even away from Camden Yards, a hitter of his caliber travels well, and Coors Field’s altitude only adds another layer of upside on top of that established power.
Yankees vs Angels
The Angels are out of the race, but the Yankees are still fighting to hang on to a playoff spot, which keeps this lineup aggressive from the top of the order down.
- Ben Rice (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 20%): tied for the top price and a lefty bat whose pull-side power fits this stretch of the schedule well.
- Trent Grisham (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): a table-setter whose power has become a real weapon this season.
- Luis Garcia Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 85%): a talented young hitter continuing to add strength to his game.
- Mike Trout (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 85%): a former MVP whose bat still carries real home run threat on any given swing.
- Cody Bellinger (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): a proven power bat capable of a big night against any pitching staff.
Best bet: Ben Rice. He’s tied atop this board, but the deciding factor is role: he’s settled into a middle-of-the-order spot for a Yankees team that needs runs every night down the stretch, which means more pitches to drive. That combination of opportunity and pull-side pop makes him the more reliable side of this coin flip at the top.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks
Philadelphia is still trying to secure playoff positioning, and Chase Field’s roof-controlled environment keeps this an even, hitter-neutral setting for both lineups.
- Kyle Schwarber (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 19%): the top price on the board and the most prolific single-season home run hitter in this matchup.
- Ketel Marte (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 16%): a switch hitter whose all-fields power has been a constant for Arizona.
- Bryce Harper (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 88%): an elite bat whose raw power shows up even in down stretches.
- Corbin Carroll (1+ HR: Yes 9%, No 92%): a dynamic athlete whose power continues to grow as he matures as a hitter.
- J.T. Realmuto (1+ HR: Yes 9%, No 93%): a veteran catcher who still provides real thump lower in the order.
Best bet: Kyle Schwarber. This isn’t a close call built purely on the number, he’s simply the most prolific home run threat in either lineup this season, and that kind of true power shows up regardless of the park. A neutral, roof-controlled setting like Chase Field does nothing to blunt that kind of bat speed.
Cardinals vs Dodgers
Los Angeles has a firm hold on the NL West, and Shohei Ohtani remains the most feared power bat in the sport regardless of what’s on the line.
- Shohei Ohtani (1+ HR: Yes 26%, No 75%): the single highest price on this entire slate, a reflection of his standing as the best power hitter in baseball.
- Jordan Walker (1+ HR: Yes 21%, No 80%): a young, physically imposing bat who has grown into real over-the-fence power.
- Max Muncy (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 85%): a patient, pull-heavy hitter who has produced steady power for years.
- Alec Burleson (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): a consistent contributor who has quietly put together a solid power season.
- Ivan Herrera (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): a catcher whose power has become a real part of his offensive profile.
Best bet: Shohei Ohtani. There’s no real debate here, he carries the highest home run probability of any hitter across the entire 15-game slate, and it’s earned through a season of historic production rather than a hot week. Dodger Stadium plays fairly neutral overall, but that has never stopped him from doing exactly this all year.
That covers all 15 games on tonight’s card, but the prediction market odds board updates throughout the night as lineups get finalized, so it’s worth checking back closer to first pitch for any late line movement.
Best Home Run Bets: Price Analysis and What’s Moving the Market
The biggest theme across tonight’s board is ballpark, not just talent. Houston’s Yordan Alvarez, Coors Field’s Colorado bats, and Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero all sit near the top of their respective games partly because their home run profiles line up directly with where they’re hitting tonight.
Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson posting the two highest single prices of the night, 26% each, is a reminder that pure talent still outweighs park factors when a hitter is performing at an elite level. Both have been among the most consistent power threats in the league all season, independent of ballpark.
A handful of tied prices, like Pete Alonso and Hunter Goodman at Coors, or Ben Rice and Trent Grisham in Anaheim, show how thin the gap can be between the top two bats in a lineup on any given night. In those spots, lineup slot and recent role matter as much as the raw number.
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Best Home Run Bets: Final Thoughts
Fifteen games is a lot of ground to cover, but the through-line across tonight’s best MLB home run predictions today is that the top prices generally reflect real skill, not just recency bias. Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, and Junior Caminero all sit at or near the top of their games for legitimate reasons tied to power profile and, in several cases, ballpark fit.
For bettors looking to build out a full slate, pairing the clearest talent gaps, like Ohtani or Alvarez, with a couple of the tighter coin-flip spots, like Baltimore versus Colorado or the Bronx versus Anaheim, is a reasonable way to spread exposure across tonight’s board.
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