Daily Batter Breakdown: Friday, June 19th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-06-23 14:38:16

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

Again, there’s a Coors Field game today, so all guys involved there make solid plays. I will not be previewing any of them, but that does not detract from them being good plays.

		Brian McCann
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.232	0.703	4.53%	0.309
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.222	0.578	0.00%	0.265
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Verlander – RIGHT		0.234	0.686	2.28%	0.304
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.143	0.000	$3,400	$8,750	$4,000	$65,400

Brian McCann

As a Tigers fan, I do not trust Verlander just yet. We saw a decent start out of him in his first outing, but the Tigers will likely take it slow again for another start to prevent overextending the triceps. I am still not sure of the velocity here, and he has had a penchant to hang pitches up in the zone in the last year, pitches which McCann would love to be able to smack out of the park. The key here is the velocity for JV, and if he is unable to crack 96 this year, you might as well jump on the stacking-against-him train early.

		Lucas Duda
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.266	0.884	5.94%	0.382
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.292	0.774	0.00%	0.323
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Wisler – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.038	0.000	$3,200	$8,800	$4,300	$67,300

Lucas Duda

Matt Wisler will make his first career start today against the Mets, which is a solid matchup for a debut. The problem is Duda has shown the first glimpses of getting his power back after launching a shot against R.A. Dickey last night. Duda is the Mets’ best power hitter, and with his price at the low areas here, I love him against a rookie pitcher who has good control but allowed a ton of homers last year in AAA. Duda has a .355 wOBA and his numbers are actually worse than previous years, meaning that he should get better as the year goes on.

		Ryan Goins
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.210	0.542	0.74%	0.240
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.381	1.125	4.76%	0.479
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Wright – RIGHT		0.304	0.880	5.36%	0.381
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.906	0.000	$2,800	$5,000	$2,300	$51,100

Ryan Goins

I really like a bottom-of-the-order stack for the Jays tonight against Wright. Goins had a terrible start to the season but he has picked it up and continues to be one of the cheapest guys on DK. It is rare that you can find a decent hitter at around $2,000 and it can really help you stack up your lineup with top hitters and the best pitchers on the board, like Sale today. Goins is not a terribly great hitter but is seeing the ball better, is in a hitter’s park and hitting for a team with a top over/under.

		Matt Carpenter
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.292	0.822	2.10%	0.364
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.222	0.522	0.00%	0.246
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Aumont – RIGHT		0.615	1.923	15.38%	0.827
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.924	0.000	$3,400	$8,450	$3,700	$60,600

Matt Carpenter

Aumont gets called up to make a spot start today, and while he was previously a top prospect, he has never really come into his own. Carpenter’s price is ridiculous on DraftKings at $3,700, and he will be leading off for a solid hitting team with an over/under of 4.5. This seems like a great spot to use him, considering he has a .419 wOBA this year against righties and will not break the bank.

		Carlos Correa
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD

Carlos Correa

Correa has been nothing short of fantastic since joining the show and he is clearly here to stay. His price at $3,900 on DraftKings is a steal, and despite the low total, he gets to face Elias, who has allowed a 4.55 xFIP to righties this year. Correa’s numbers are all from a small sample size, but he is an absolutely supreme prospect and can somewhat sustain a huge pace like this.

		Adam Eaton
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.288	0.763	0.76%	0.338
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	0.812	0.00%	0.381
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT		0.302	0.842	2.56%	0.365
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.793	0.000	$2,600	$7,100	$3,500	$51,500

Adam Eaton

The White Sox are terrible on offense and I really hate using them, but Eaton has been one of the better hitters for them lately as they try to make a futile turnaround. Eaton is still at the top of the lineup, and even though he is averaging a strikeout a game recently, he is also getting on base and stealing bags. Eaton has some speed and power and he is against everyone’s favorite punching bag in Colby Lewis tonight. The White Sox have one of their highest totals of the year tonight and might be an interesting off-the-wall stack.

		Kevin Pillar
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.257	0.670	1.92%	0.295
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.417	0.958	4.17%	0.419
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Wright – RIGHT		0.189	0.529	1.89%	0.222
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.906	0.000	$3,000	$7,600	$3,900	$68,400

Kevin Pillar

I love Pillar as an under-the-radar play tonight against Wright in the Rogers Centre. He is cheap across the industry and is swinging a hot bat right now. Many will look at Wright’s stats against righties and Wright Pillar off (see what I did there?). I look at his numbers and how poor he has been lately and see opportunity, as his xFIP is 4.13 and he has a completely unsustainable BABIP while allowing a few homers. Pillar has done most of his damage against righties this year (4 of his 5 homers) and owns a better wOBA against them as well.

		Billy Hamilton
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.236	0.607	1.04%	0.271
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.208	0.519	0.00%	0.238
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Haren – RIGHT		0.231	0.694	4.70%	0.302
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.180	0.000	$3,200	$7,400	$4,300	$57,000

Billy Hamilton

Hamilton is really struggling this year, but his upside is unprecedented in GPPs, especially when he has a low ownership percentage. He is really unlucky with a .238 BABIP, even though his strikeouts are way down. Haren has allowed a .333 wOBA and a 4.49 xFIP this year, and when Hamilton gets on base he should really be able to steal a lot of bags. I would not use him in cash games due to the low batting position and recent struggles, but I see upside everywhere.

		Jason Kipnis
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.296	0.815	1.67%	0.359
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	0.714	0.00%	0.318
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Karns – RIGHT		0.218	0.627	1.28%	0.289
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.327	0.000	$4,500	$9,700	$4,800	$76,600

Jason Kipnis

If you can find some value, I really like using Kipnis today. His price is a bit down on DraftKings and you can get one of the top hitters at the second base position for some value here. He has a .448 wOBA and a 197 wRC+, both ridiculous numbers, against right-handers, and with Karns being solid but not great, I definitely think that Kipnis at the leadoff spot is a very solid play. Kipnis is one of the best cash game options on the board today.

		David Peralta
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.300	0.836	3.33%	0.361
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.238	0.511	0.00%	0.232
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Shields – RIGHT		0.264	0.743	2.86%	0.327
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.190	0.000	$2,700	$5,850	$3,500	$45,600

David Peralta

I was extremely surprised to see that the Diamondbacks have a 4.5 over/under tonight against Shields and the Padres, but we have a few things working against him. Shields is against Pollock and Goldschmidt, who have been two of the best hitters against both sides, even against their right-handed counterparts. Plus, Shields has allowed a .380 wOBA to lefties, his worst mark as of late. Peralta hits righties well with a .368 wOBA and a .197 ISO, and his 117 wRC+ is a decent number too. The Diamondbacks make for an interesting low owned stack tonight.