Daily Batter Breakdown: Wednesday, June 24th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-06-29 13:07:09

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

As always, Coors Field guys are solid plays here, especially the Rockies who have a sky-high over/under. However, they will be ignored in this column to focus on other, less obvious plays.

		Wilson Ramos
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.255	0.687	3.41%	0.300
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.313	1.083	12.50%	0.439
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Miller – RIGHT		0.209	0.628	2.36%	0.281
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.765	0.000	$3,000	$7,750	$3,700	$64,000

Wilson Ramos

Ramos is an interesting case here. We have Shelby Miller who is one of DFS’s darlings, but we also have people projecting regression on him as he has an extremely unsustainable BABIP. He has always played with fire, but his BABIP this year is extremely low including a .205 mark against right-handed batters. Some pitchers can keep the number lower than others, but .205 is a very lucky number. Ramos has hit most of his homers against right-handed pitchers and hits each side relatively the same. With his cheap price today and Washington’s generous Vegas numbers, he makes a very solid gamble play.

		Prince Fielder
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.331	0.900	3.19%	0.380
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.313	1.101	6.25%	0.432
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Graveman – RIGHT		0.283	0.773	2.65%	0.343
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.134	0.000	$3,600	$10,300	$4,800	$84,000

Prince Fielder

Fielder begins the trio of Rangers that I will preview today. Outside of the Coors Field game, there are not too many awful pitchers going up against good offenses. Kendall Graveman is not terrible, but he’s facing an offense that rakes against right-handed pitching. Graveman has a decent wOBA, but his 5.16 xFIP against lefties indicates that he has a solid chance at getting hit hard by Rangers from that side of the plate. After a struggle of a year, Prince is back mashing against right handed pitching hitting them at a .426 wOBA and .185 ISO (which is actually low for him).

		Joe Panik
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.286	0.741	1.56%	0.329
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.227	0.734	0.00%	0.333
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Kennedy – RIGHT		0.244	0.742	3.28%	0.324
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.662	0.000	$3,100	$7,150	$3,200	$59,700

Joe Panik

Panik has a .356 wOBA against right-handed pitching, and even in AT&T, he should be a decent play here tonight on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he is priced too high, as I like Odor a whole lot better for $900 cheaper, however, Panik is cheaper than Odor on DraftKings. Kennedy has allowed a .380 wOBA this year to lefties with a huge slugging percentage, and while this is a pitcher’s park, the Giants have a ton of solid lefties who can pound right-handed pitching at the top of their lineup. Panik isn’t great, but he’s cheap on a lackluster slate.

		Joey Gallo
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.294	1.003	8.82%	0.411
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.100	0.432	5.00%	0.175
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Graveman – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.134	0.000	$3,100	$7,450	$3,700	$65,300

Joey Gallo

Luckily for us, DraftKings and FanDuel do not subtract for strikeouts which makes Gallo still an attractive play. His price is cheap and if you are looking for a guy in the lower range of price to hit a homer, Gallo would have to be one of the top of the lists. He has been hitting second in the Rangers’ lineup, and is an extreme power/upside guy facing Kendall Graveman, who we talked about above.

		Hanley Ramirez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.277	0.789	3.79%	0.347
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.316	0.982	10.53%	0.421
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Norris – RIGHT		0.227	0.679	3.05%	0.302
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.092	0.000	$3,700	$9,750	$4,600	$80,000

Hanley Ramirez

Hanley headlines a terrible shortstop class today. Of course Tulo is there, but outside of these two there really is not much to like. Hanley is not going to break the bank and while Tulo to me looks like the better play on paper, Hanley is not fodder himself. Of course, we would like Hanley against a lefty and Norris against a righty, but Bud Norris is having one of the worst seasons of his career against RHB with a 4.62 xFIP while generally pitching terribly. Hanley has a career .370 wOBA against right-handed batters. The Red Sox are projected to be one of the highest scoring teams on the slate outside of Coors and while I do not love them, Hanley should be a solid SS play.

		Anthony Rizzo
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.284	0.937	6.50%	0.401
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.321	1.188	14.29%	0.498
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Bolsinger – RIGHT		0.306	0.812	1.09%	0.356
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.729	0.000	$4,500	$11,450	$5,200	$86,800

Anthony Rizzo

Mike Bolsinger is not terrible, but outside of Graveman and the Coors Field game, I am not really seeing a ton of terrible pitchers to target. Rizzo is having a great season against lefties, but he is still incredibly good against righties as well with a .419 wOBA, a number which looks to be sustainable considering his continued improvement throughout his career. He is even better at home and with this game one of the higher over/under games on the docket, I would not have a problem paying up for him today.

		Rougned Odor
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.251	0.694	2.33%	0.303
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.250	0.558	0.00%	0.259
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Graveman – RIGHT		0.283	0.773	2.65%	0.343
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.134	0.000	$2,200	$5,000	$3,200	$42,900

Rougned Odor

Odor is minimum salary on FanDuel and almost minimum on DraftKings. He hit first yesterday in the Rangers’ lineup and I see no reason for the manager to drop him from that spot today. He had better numbers last year against righties with 7 homers and a .315 wOBA but really only has 1/3 the at-bats this year. He is not a great hitter – but the over/under of this game and the fact that he is hitting at the top of the lineup against a guy who is projected to struggle in the future against LHB is really enticing.

		Nelson Cruz
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.341	1.108	8.24%	0.462
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.263	0.861	5.26%	0.378
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Duffy – LEFT		0.241	0.713	2.94%	0.317
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.772	0.000	$3,200	$9,550	$4,700

Nelson Cruz

Danny Duffy has been pretty good in his career, but more recently he has struggled against righties with a .376 wOBA and a 4.88 xFIP against them this year. Cruz has cooled off to the point where he is basically frozen, but he is still managing a .605 wOBA against left-handed pitching. The main thing to take from this is that Cruz still obliterates lefties and that teams have been doing a better job getting a R/R matchup for Nelson in the later games. His price on FanDuel is fantastic and he is one of the best two-homer upside guys on the slate.

		Alex Rios
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.311	0.832	1.32%	0.356
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.259	0.535	0.00%	0.238
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Elias – LEFT		0.252	0.735	3.20%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.772	0.000	$2,300	$5,700	$3,700	$53,600

Alex Rios

I love Rios at this price across the industry. Yes, Roenis Elias is not a terrible pitcher even though he has a 4.51 xFIP against right-handers, but the main attraction here is Rios’ career numbers against lefties and his price. Despite the fact that he is hitting at the bottom of the Royals’ lineup, in the last three years he has averaged a .380 wOBA with a .220 ISO, which means the power is there. Rios is a much better hitter than he is priced at and this is a great spot to take advantage, especially if he moves up the lineup.

		Giancarlo Stanton
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.325	1.114	9.38%	0.462
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.250	0.75	8.33%	0.322
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Garcia – LEFT		0.199	0.572	2.12%	0.253
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.891	0.000	$4,900	$12,100	$5,200	$90,100

Giancarlo Stanton

Jaime Garcia is solid but Stanton is Stanton and he has some of the most video game numbers against left-handed pitching in the majors. His average is down this year, but his wOBA is .472, the highest of his career and his wRC+ is 203, which is ridiculous. The only lefty I would ignore Stanton against is Kershaw, as the Miami slugger’s numbers prove he is an absolute elite option anytime he steps to the plate.