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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 18th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-07-18 18:02:23

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Lohse MIL WAS 119 3.18 3.86 1.10 53.8% 17.8% 4.7% 0.83 1.11
Strasburg WAS MIL 119.1 3.47 2.59 1.21 64.3% 28.2% 4.8% 0.91 1.55
De La Rosa COL PIT 96.2 4.75 4.40 1.32 38.5% 17.0% 10.2% 1.12 1.67
Liriano PIT COL 72.1 4.60 3.69 1.46 14.3% 24.0% 11.2% 1.00 2.02
Leake CIN NYY 121 3.42 3.37 1.20 46.2% 19.0% 4.8% 0.97 1.96
Phelps NYY CIN 83 4.01 4.10 1.35 14.3% 19.7% 9.2% 1.08 1.08
Darvish TEX TOR 109.1 2.63 3.00 1.19 66.7% 29.8% 8.7% 0.66 0.80
Dickey TOR TEX 119 3.86 4.20 1.32 42.9% 19.2% 9.1% 1.21 1.12
Bauer CLE DET 66 4.23 3.99 1.39 50.0% 21.1% 8.5% 1.23 0.77
Sanchez DET CLE 87.2 3.18 3.97 1.03 40.0% 19.0% 7.1% 0.31 1.12
Bumgarner SFG MIA 120.2 3.36 3.16 1.24 57.1% 24.4% 6.3% 0.67 1.48
Eovaldi MIA SFG 112.2 3.75 3.91 1.25 53.8% 17.1% 4.7% 0.64 1.16
Shields KCR BOS 123.2 3.71 3.59 1.29 50.0% 19.3% 5.1% 1.09 1.44
Buchholz BOS KCR 70.2 6.11 4.50 1.67 30.0% 15.4% 7.7% 1.53 1.11
Burnett PHI ATL 124 3.92 4.10 1.34 42.9% 19.1% 9.9% 0.65 1.79
Santana ATL PHI 103 3.93 3.43 1.27 45.5% 21.8% 6.9% 0.70 1.74
Cobb TBR MIN 69.1 4.28 3.50 1.26 42.9% 20.8% 7.5% 0.91 1.95
Gibson MIN TBR 95 4.17 4.36 1.25 50.0% 12.6% 7.1% 0.57 1.90
Feldman HOU CWS 84 3.86 4.27 1.29 50.0% 14.3% 5.8% 0.96 1.41
Quintana CWS HOU 112.1 3.20 3.50 1.24 46.2% 21.5% 6.9% 0.48 1.59
Haren LAD STL 108.2 4.06 3.79 1.25 38.5% 16.9% 4.2% 1.49 1.38
Lynn STL LAD 108 3.17 3.86 1.31 46.2% 21.0% 8.6% 0.50 1.35
Jackson CHC ARI 101.2 5.05 4.07 1.53 15.4% 21.1% 10.1% 0.80 1.22
Cahill ARI CHC 41.1 5.66 3.96 1.75 25.0% 23.0% 13.1% 0.87 1.65
Tillman BAL OAK 111.2 4.11 4.85 1.39 35.7% 14.3% 9.2% 0.97 1.04
Samardzija OAK BAL 115 2.74 3.23 1.17 69.2% 22.8% 6.8% 0.55 1.94
Iwakuma SEA LAA 88 3.07 2.81 1.05 50.0% 21.1% 2.4% 1.02 2.09
Weaver LAA SEA 118.1 3.50 4.05 1.14 50.0% 19.3% 6.9% 1.22 0.76
Colon NYM SDP 113.2 4.04 3.83 1.18 41.7% 17.3% 3.6% 1.11 1.05
Kennedy SDP NYM 116.1 3.71 3.08 1.21 50.0% 26.0% 6.2% 0.77 1.11

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Yu Darvish TEX (at TOR) – Leave it to Darvish to have his period of “struggle” move his ERA alllll the way up to 2.97 ERA. He closed the “first half” with a 5.40 ERA in five starts including a 6 IP/6 ER against Houston in his finale. He still had 41 Ks and a 3.4 K:BB ratio in the 30 IP of work being looked at so I’m definitely not worried. The Toronto offense is dinged with Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, and Brett Lawrie out which makes a trip there a lot less frightening.

Jose Quintana CWS (v. HOU) – Quintana has become one of the most underrated arms in the game, though daily sites are starting to take notice. He continues to improve year over year, particularly with his strikeout rate and innings worked. His 8.1 K/9 is a career-best and he’s averaging about 6.3 IP per start – going at least 6 IP in 16 of his 19 starts. Oddly enough, one of those sub-6 IP outings was against these Astros back on May 16th (5 IP/2 ER/5 K). They do better against lefties overall, but they are still toting a 23% strikeout rate against them (6th highest), including a 25% mark in the last month.

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Madison Bumgarner SF (at MIA) – The break might have come at a perfect time for Bumgarner. He has dipped back to his hitter-friendly ways of April with 35 allowed in 24.3 IP over his last four starts including back-to-back 10 spots. He allowed 45 in 33.7 IP during six April starts before righting the ship. The Miami offense continues to fade after a strong start. In the last calendar month, they have a meager .671 OPS – 21st in baseball.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (v. MIL) – I think a lot of folks consider Strasburg’s season something of a disappointment thus far. His 3.46 ERA is probably a half run higher than expected while his 1.22 WHIP is at least 0.15 above expectations. Despite all that, he is still striking out batters at an incredible 10.7 K9 clip yielding his NL-best 149 strikeouts and he’s trimmed his walk rate sharply to 1.9 BB9 good for a career-best 5.7 K:BB in anything resembling a full-ish season (he had a 12.0 K:BB ratio in 24 IP in 2011). This won’t be an easy matchup for Strasburg, but he is certainly catching the Brewers at a good time as they’ve gone just 2-10 in July so far.

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Bartolo Colon NYM (at SD) – A competent pitcher against the Padres in their pitcher-friendly ballpark. There just isn’t much else to say. He does have five outings of 5+ ER, but that’s been largely because of the longball which isn’t something in San Diego’s offensive arsenal. Their entire arsenal is quite offensive, just not in any sort of way that they had hoped.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow._

jeff-samardzija-300x200

Jeff Samardzija OAK (v. BAL) – He’s looked great in his two Oakland outings, but Baltimore won’t be easy. It’s only two games so I’m far from sounding the alarm, but Samardzija does have 10 Ks in his 15 IP (good for 6.0 K9) which is well below his near strikeout-per-inning rate with the Cubs. And it’s not just the absence of pitchers. His 8 Ks against opposing pitchers was just the 47th highest total among the 75 starters who have fanned another pitcher this year.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at LAA) – Iwakuma certainly doesn’t fall under the radar in the daily space. He is priced in the top five at most outlets (and in the top three for several of the biggies) which is understandable given how good he is, but I’m reticent to actively seek him out as one of my starters against this team. Perhaps if he was a bit more overshadowed and priced a bit more favorably for us, but as a premium arm, I’d be comfortable if he were facing a different team or at least getting this one on his home turf. On the positive end, his Ks have surged in July with 25 in 21.7 IP (10.4 K9) after averaging 6.6 per nine through his first 11 starts. The surge has pushed him to 7.4 K9 for the season, a rate he’s likely to maintain from here on out as opposed to the rampant pace he has been on of late.

Ian Kennedy SD (v. NYM) – He hasn’t yet leveraged his home ballpark entirely with a 3.92 ERA in 59.7 IP (compared to a 3.06 on the road), but his 10.0 K9 and 4.4 K:BB ratio at Petco suggest that there is room for that ERA to drop significantly… well, as long as he’s still a Padre. The Mets handed Kennedy a modest outing in Citi back on June 15th with a 5.1 IP/3 ER effort, but also 7 Ks. I like him to easily best that outing this time around.

ervin-santana-300x200

Ervin Santana ATL (v. PHI) – The guy we saw in April was a fluke on the positive end (1.95 ERA in 27.7 IP) while the guy we saw in May was a fluke on the negative end (5.75 ERA in 36 IP). However, the June-July version on Santana is definitely in line with what we should expect the rest of the way. He’s had a 3.88 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 3.2 K:BB ratio in 46.3 IP with a 7.4 K9. He has a pair of quality starts against the Phillies during that run and a 6 IP/1 ER gem with 11 Ks against them back in April totaling a 2.89 ERA in 18.7 IP.

James Shields KC (at BOS) – Shields was electric in April (2.02 ERA) before cooling down significantly in the following two months (4.93) and then finally closing with back-to-back huge 7 IP efforts before the All-Star break. His stuff looked more crisp in the outings against Tampa Bay and Detroit heading into the break which was born out in the stats, too, with the strikeout surge (18 in 14 IP after 14 in 25 IP over his previous four starts). The Boston lineup can be picked on, too.

Kyle Lohse MIL (at WAS) – You’ll never be excited hitting that checkmark or “DRAFT” button next to Lohse’s name when filling out your roster, but he delivers consistently. He was positively brilliant through his first 12 this year (2.60 ERA) before an 8 ER thrashing in Pittsburgh, but he’s bounced back nicely since then with a 3.23 ERA in six starts. He’s definitely more useful in the 50/50s where you’re often looking for more bankable point totals. He carries that high-floor tag meaning he might allow 3 ER in the first inning, but he usually bounces back with five or six strong innings to salvage the outing. Everyone has something like his 5 IP/8 ER, but his are infrequent.

kyle-lohse-300x200

R.A. Dickey TOR (v. TEX) – Dickey had a 6.26 ERA through four starts (allowed 5+ ER in three of them) and it looked like we might see a repeat of 2013. But he has been strong since with a 3.26 ERA in 16 starts (with just two 5+ ER starts) including quality starts in five of his last six. The decimated Rangers aren’t scaring anyone these days, going just 1-12 in July thus far.

A.J. Burnett PHI (at ATL) – After an excellent start (2.06 ERA in seven starts) to the season, Burnett used six rotten starts to more than double his ERA up to 4.41 through 13 starts. The run has marred his season and masked his recent work since an 8 ER dud in Washington during which he has a 2.94 ERA in seven starts (52 IP). He hasn’t been the strikeout stud we have been used to throughout his career with a 7.4 K9 being his second-worst mark since 2002 (and probably even worse than his 7.0 from 2010 when you compared both to league averages), but that may finally be turning with 31 in his last 27.7 IP (spanning four starts).

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Alex Cobb TB (at MIN) – Cobb has been a curious case this year. He’s battled ups and downs throughout his 13 starts while also missing a month-plus on the DL. It seems every time he’s rolling along smoothly, he gets doused with a 6 ER outing. His upside remains substantial, though, as evidenced by his raw skills. He has an 8.1 K9, 2.8 BB9, and 58% groundball rate, all of which generates a SIERA nearly three-quarters of a run lower than his 4.14 ERA. The Twins are susceptible against righties. After a second-place finish in OPS against righties back in April (.788), they’re at .661 since May 1st – dead last in the AL and 28th overall.

Anibal Sanchez DET (v. CLE) – On a full slate night, Sanchez is essentially a value play at his current cost. He’s well out of the top 10 at most sites which is understandable, but he definitely carries top 10 upside. His Ks have been down of late with just 11 in his last five starts after 59 in his first 11 starts. This is an interesting strength v. strength matchup as Cleveland does well against righties with a lineup of nearly all lefties, but Sanchez does well against lefties with a .531 OPS (compared to .671 v. righties).

Nathan Eovaldi MIA (v. SF) – After a hot start, Eovaldi has cooled substantially, though he has still mixed in a number of strong efforts. The big issue has been the disappearance of his strikeout rate. He had a 25% rate in his first seven starts, but it has completely disintegrated to just 12% over his last 12 starts. He has fanned more than five just once in that stretch and no more than three in any of his last six starts. The Giants are the offense to turn a pitcher’s fortunes with right now, though. Their .572 OPS against righties in the last month is baseball’s worst INCLUDING SAN DIEGO (in fact, the Astros are also worse than San Diego). I’m still a huge Eovaldi fan, but he’s not delivering the same value we saw earlier this year so while I love the discount he’s drawing at just about all sites, it’s there for a reason.

Francisco Liriano PIT (v. COL) – Liriano didn’t exactly inspire confidence in his DL return, going 4 IP/3 ER with six walks, but this is a prime matchup. The Rockies have baseball’s second-worst OPS at .553 against lefties on the road since May 1st. They were excellent in those situations in April (.905 OPS), but they’ve collapsed since then. If you’re looking for a gamble who could deliver big, I like the risk-reward proposition here.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Lohse 0.304 3.56 0.295 3.07 0.234 0.670 1.100 3.56 0.131 99.56 66.2%
Strasburg 0.283 3.40 0.284 3.08 0.263 0.732 1.210 2.78 0.233 98.37 67.3%
De La Rosa 0.226 2.62 0.350 4.41 0.253 0.686 1.310 4.74 0.068 92.33 60.0%
Liriano 0.230 2.75 0.309 3.78 0.277 0.780 1.450 4.00 0.128 89.79 61.0%
Leake 0.335 3.61 0.298 3.19 0.250 0.693 1.200 3.66 0.142 98.00 65.0%
Phelps 0.320 3.86 0.347 5.43 0.250 0.688 1.350 4.38 0.106 67.43 61.1%
Darvish 0.299 3.13 0.245 2.28 0.266 0.768 1.190 2.74 0.211 106.06 63.1%
Dickey 0.330 4.14 0.312 4.08 0.256 0.690 1.320 4.54 0.101 105.16 64.7%
Bauer 0.347 4.00 0.334 4.96 0.276 0.769 1.390 4.21 0.127 103.18 63.0%
Sanchez 0.279 3.26 0.258 2.19 0.259 0.739 1.030 2.99 0.119 98.93 64.0%
Bumgarner 0.234 2.02 0.291 3.34 0.262 0.705 1.230 2.92 0.180 102.47 66.2%
Eovaldi 0.341 4.04 0.281 3.16 0.240 0.670 1.240 3.32 0.125 100.89 66.2%
Shields 0.301 3.29 0.324 3.50 0.239 0.670 1.290 3.89 0.142 106.26 63.7%
Buchholz 0.300 3.23 0.313 3.89 0.267 0.693 1.660 5.10 0.077 93.31 63.4%
Burnett 0.341 4.62 0.262 2.72 0.240 0.660 1.340 3.89 0.092 104.21 60.7%
Santana 0.326 3.49 0.276 3.55 0.235 0.646 1.270 3.18 0.149 96.44 63.3%
Cobb 0.292 3.48 0.301 3.03 0.243 0.686 1.250 3.84 0.133 91.75 64.4%
Gibson 0.346 4.92 0.305 5.13 0.247 0.688 1.250 3.80 0.055 88.47 61.1%
Feldman 0.309 4.03 0.303 3.70 0.253 0.719 1.290 4.38 0.085 95.93 63.6%
Quintana 0.302 3.32 0.301 3.46 0.273 0.763 1.240 2.88 0.146 105.56 62.4%
Haren 0.315 5.01 0.347 3.97 0.250 0.668 1.240 4.40 0.127 100.44 64.2%
Lynn 0.332 4.47 0.287 3.20 0.271 0.754 1.310 3.24 0.123 101.94 62.3%
Jackson 0.377 6.05 0.321 4.33 0.258 0.702 1.520 3.83 0.110 96.72 61.9%
Cahill 0.360 4.47 0.318 4.30 0.230 0.652 1.740 4.13 0.100 40.95 57.1%
Tillman 0.331 4.20 0.308 3.49 0.259 0.739 1.390 4.55 0.051 100.00 62.3%
Samardzija 0.336 4.22 0.298 3.51 0.269 0.742 1.170 3.02 0.160 99.72 65.7%
Iwakuma 0.281 2.48 0.276 3.17 0.257 0.730 1.050 3.23 0.188 93.54 68.8%
Weaver 0.298 3.51 0.293 3.20 0.241 0.691 1.140 4.24 0.125 95.42 61.6%
Colon 0.300 3.33 0.294 3.01 0.218 0.611 1.180 3.80 0.137 100.00 68.2%
Kennedy 0.336 4.92 0.327 4.11 0.237 0.671 1.210 2.93 0.198 103.47 65.1%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.