Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, June 13th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendricks | CHC | WAS | 248.1 | 3.66 | 3.41 | 1.10 | 22.3% | 5.8% | 0.76 | 1.99 | |
| Scherzer | WAS | CHC | 317 | 3.01 | 2.76 | 0.96 | 60.0% | 30.6% | 4.7% | 1.22 | 0.78 |
| Eickhoff | PHI | TOR | 124.1 | 3.26 | 3.73 | 1.12 | 22.1% | 5.6% | 1.01 | 1.16 | |
| Dickey | TOR | PHI | 292.1 | 3.97 | 4.77 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 14.7% | 7.4% | 1.08 | 1.20 |
| Wright | CIN | ATL | |||||||||
| Blair | ATL | CIN | 35.1 | 7.13 | 5.89 | 1.84 | 12.0% | 12.6% | 1.02 | 1.29 | |
| Boyd | DET | CWS | 78.2 | 6.41 | 4.77 | 1.49 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 2.29 | 0.66 | |
| Shields | CWS | DET | 271.2 | 4.21 | 3.91 | 1.38 | 42.9% | 23.7% | 9.5% | 1.49 | 1.36 |
| Carrasco | CLE | KCR | 217.1 | 3.60 | 2.87 | 1.08 | 28.2% | 5.8% | 1.04 | 1.73 | |
| Volquez | KCR | CLE | 278.2 | 3.75 | 4.34 | 1.33 | 50.0% | 18.4% | 8.5% | 0.78 | 1.48 |
| Bolsinger | LAD | ARI | 129.2 | 3.96 | 4.08 | 1.35 | 33.3% | 21.2% | 9.4% | 1.11 | 1.63 |
| Greinke | ARI | LAD | 309.1 | 2.27 | 3.40 | 0.93 | 50.0% | 22.8% | 4.7% | 0.67 | 1.47 |
| Nolasco | MIN | LAA | 108.2 | 5.71 | 3.93 | 1.44 | 16.7% | 20.6% | 5.7% | 0.99 | 1.12 |
| Weaver | LAA | MIN | 228.2 | 4.92 | 4.97 | 1.32 | 52.4% | 13.5% | 5.2% | 1.57 | 0.71 |
| Ramos | TEX | OAK | 80 | 3.04 | 3.97 | 1.39 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 1.55 | |
| Manaea | OAK | TEX | 45 | 6.20 | 4.57 | 1.47 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 1.05 | |
| Chen | MIA | SDP | 262.1 | 3.67 | 4.01 | 1.23 | 31.6% | 19.3% | 5.2% | 1.34 | 1.05 |
| Rea | SDP | MIA | 94.1 | 4.58 | 4.59 | 1.31 | 17.3% | 8.9% | 0.76 | 1.48 | |
| Anderson | MIL | SFG | 219 | 4.27 | 4.27 | 1.26 | 40.0% | 17.8% | 6.1% | 1.27 | 1.12 |
| Cain | SFG | MIL | 114.1 | 5.51 | 4.70 | 1.47 | 40.0% | 15.6% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 0.86 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Zack Greinke ARI (LAD) – Greinke’s back. And it’s not just his last couple of starts. Since the Cardinals blasted him for 7 ER on April 25th, he has a 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 56 IP with 49 Ks and just 10 BBs. He’s gotten back to his slider going from 18% in April to 22% in May to 29% in June. It’s got a .408 OPS, easily best among his secondary pitches.
His fastball was a key issue behind his early struggle, but it’s allowed just a .418 OPS in his last two starts and might finally be coming around. I still don’t see him as a the sub-3.00 ERA guy he was with the Dodgers, his current ERA indicators have him in the 3.30-3.60 range and that seems doable. An ERA in that area the rest of the way is going to yield plenty of big starts and I like Greinke to stay hot against his former teammates.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at KC) – He’s only been back for two starts since his hamstring injury and the results are just OK, but the skills are still there. His 10% swinging strike rate is in line with his season mark so I’m not worried about his strikeout rate being a little behind. Of course, it’s down because he only fanned two Royals in five innings and now he gets them again. That said, even just weeks later this KC team is a helluva lot different after a rash of injuries. Since facing Carrasco on June 2nd, their 25% K rate is fourth-highest and their .528 OPS is lowest against righties.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Max Scherzer WAS (CHC) – It’s hard to quibble with Scherzer’s production over his last six starts. He has a 2.58 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with 61 Ks in 45.3 IP. If it weren’t for the 7 HRs in that run, his ERA would be even better. Of course, the start right before these six was against the Cubs and he allowed 7 ER including 4 HRs. The HRs have been an issue dating back to last August with his 30 allowed being a league-high, even more than Hector Santiago (27). Hector Santiago, y’all!!! I can’t in good conscience keep Scherzer in the All-In level against a team like this with that kind of home run problem.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at WAS) – Even without an elite strikeout rate, Hendricks continues to find big success. On the surface, he looks like a two-pitch pitcher – fastball, changeup – but he can sink and cut his fastball in addition to the four-seamer and he can also manipulate his changeup multiple ways giving him in essence five pitches, not to mention a show-me curve that he uses 6-7% of the time.
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at SD) – How is Chen worse with Miami in the NL than he was with Baltimore?! Actually, it’s just the results. The skills are identical and I still think they translate into at least an upper-3.00s ERA in that ballpark. Of course, he’s on the road for this matchup, but Petco Park isn’t exactly a scary venue given the offense that it houses. It’s not the pitcher’s dreamscape it once was, but it’s still neutral-to-slightly-pitcher-friendly so I have no problem rostering an arm there. The Padres are better against lefties, but still strike out 25% of the time, third-highest in the league.
R.A. Dickey TOR (PHI) – “Trust” isn’t exactly the first word that comes to mind with the knuckleball, but if you trust Dickey over a long sample, he usually finds his level. He’s never going to be the Cy Young-level stud of 2012, but after entering May with a 6.75 ERA, he’s got a 2.81 over his last eight to bring his season mark down to 4.15. I feel like we’ve trusted less talented arms against Philly this year so why not Dickey?
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendricks | 0.323 | 3.17 | 0.251 | 4.04 | 0.246 | 0.718 | 0.281 | 3.27 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 22.3% |
| Scherzer | 0.311 | 3.36 | 0.223 | 2.67 | 0.248 | 0.738 | 0.265 | 3.10 | 0.206 | 0.01 | 30.6% |
| Eickhoff | 0.343 | 4.45 | 0.246 | 2.12 | 0.258 | 0.772 | 0.279 | 3.53 | 0.235 | 0.01 | 22.1% |
| Dickey | 0.305 | 3.92 | 0.317 | 4.01 | 0.242 | 0.677 | 0.262 | 4.52 | 0.243 | 0.00 | 14.7% |
| Wright | 0.252 | 0.671 | |||||||||
| Blair | 0.402 | 5.09 | 0.362 | 9.17 | 0.246 | 0.707 | 0.336 | 5.50 | 0.308 | 0.00 | 12.0% |
| Boyd | 0.428 | 10.24 | 0.365 | 5.16 | 0.245 | 0.666 | 0.296 | 6.05 | 0.284 | 0.00 | 17.7% |
| Shields | 0.379 | 4.63 | 0.302 | 3.82 | 0.269 | 0.742 | 0.307 | 4.58 | 0.256 | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Carrasco | 0.285 | 3.35 | 0.284 | 3.82 | 0.267 | 0.730 | 0.295 | 3.15 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 28.2% |
| Volquez | 0.300 | 3.44 | 0.314 | 4.06 | 0.252 | 0.728 | 0.295 | 3.86 | 0.251 | 0.00 | 18.4% |
| Bolsinger | 0.343 | 2.24 | 0.297 | 5.12 | 0.265 | 0.739 | 0.295 | 4.20 | 0.248 | 0.01 | 21.2% |
| Greinke | 0.266 | 2.47 | 0.229 | 2.10 | 0.243 | 0.721 | 0.250 | 2.92 | 0.205 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Nolasco | 0.319 | 5.01 | 0.356 | 6.33 | 0.254 | 0.717 | 0.349 | 3.56 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 20.6% |
| Weaver | 0.351 | 4.59 | 0.343 | 5.23 | 0.243 | 0.699 | 0.286 | 5.12 | 0.276 | 0.00 | 13.5% |
| Ramos | 0.306 | 1.69 | 0.339 | 3.94 | 0.252 | 0.709 | 0.326 | 3.82 | 0.278 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Manaea | 0.382 | 7.20 | 0.261 | 0.741 | 0.314 | 4.65 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 17.7% | ||
| Chen | 0.262 | 2.56 | 0.341 | 4.00 | 0.245 | 0.694 | 0.291 | 4.18 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 19.3% |
| Rea | 0.291 | 4.42 | 0.332 | 4.81 | 0.258 | 0.693 | 0.282 | 4.08 | 0.243 | 0.01 | 17.3% |
| Anderson | 0.301 | 3.65 | 0.347 | 4.84 | 0.261 | 0.733 | 0.288 | 4.40 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Cain | 0.393 | 6.48 | 0.346 | 4.76 | 0.255 | 0.712 | 0.313 | 5.04 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 15.6% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Chase Anderson MIL (at SF) – Anderson is a really intriguing play today. Anderson struggles with giving up homers (a common theme among today’s slate) with a disgusting 1.8 HR/9 this year, but he’s allowed just 2 in his last 22.3 IP (0.8) and AT&T Park is great at stifling the longball with a 54/84 left/right park factor. He’s also unique in that he has a reverse platoon split which actually makes him a good fit to face these Giants. This year he has a .951/.556 right-left platoon split (.822/.696 for his career) and the Giants have only two regular righties in their lineup – Buster Posey and Matt Duffy. A lefty-loaded lineup in a park that doesn’t allow lefty homers against righty with a reverse platoon split and HR issue sets up Anderson up to stay hot. He’s posted a 2.43 ERA in his last six starts with just a 0.65 WHIP and a killer 7.3 K:BB ratio. Take a shot.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at TOR) – Eickhoff has been part of a very solid Philly rotation that really deserves better than the bullpen and offense supporting it. In fact, that’s part of what makes them tough to roster because the pitcher win is so key in DFS. Eickhoff has cut into the sharp platoon split we saw last year to drive his success, though he’s also lost his otherworldly ability against righties. He had a .450/.830 righty-lefty split last year. This year it’s at .673/.798. The Jays don’t have many lefties to take advantage of his weakness, but their righties are no ordinary righties. The Jays offense is heating up with the weather, too. They’re scoring 5.5 runs per game in June and 4.8 at home for the entire season. The lineup construction plays to his strength, but the talent up and down this lineup will present a major challenge for Eickhoff. The Call section for today is loaded with more risk than usual.
Matt Cain SF (MIL) – Cain was looking solid before his strained hamstring with a 1.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 21 IP. How trustworthy is the run, though? I’m skeptical as there are no major changes behind it. His swinging strike rate is up about 1.5%, a modest gain. He’s shifted some of his changeup usage to the curveball which has helped because the change was getting battered around the yard. The most bankable change has been getting ahead more often. His first-pitch strike rate has jumped from 62% to 69% and his already-strong walk rate (6%) has dropped some to 4.5%. His K/9 has only moved from 6.1 to 6.8, but his strikeout rate has jumped from 15% to 19% (that’s why K% is better than K/9).
James Shields CWS (DET) – His last two starts are two of the absolute worst of his career (10 and 7 ER, both in fewer than 3 IP) and the Tigers aren’t exactly the team a homer-prone pitcher wants to see when he needs to get right, but he has a track record as recently as this year. He had a 3.06 ERA in his first 10 starts of the season and while that was lower than his skills deserved, even his 3.90 FIP would be a vast improvement from these last two nightmares.
I know one of you would’ve asked where he was if I didn’t include him. If you want a low ownership percentage pitcher, Shields is your guy! I’m unlikely to use him myself as I tend to veer away from guys with home run issues in DFS, but I don’t think he’s a completely unreasonable play for a contrarian kind of lineup. He has always found success in Comerica Park while only Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez have exceptional numbers against him. And Cabrera’s were built up earlier in their careers as Shields has held him to a .695 OPS since 2013 and the team to a .611 in 148 PA in that same span. Ya, I went BvP on you, but unless there is an underlying injury behind these last two starts, Shields has to be better from here on out.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
I can’t really make a case for Aaron Blair or Jered Weaver, but they are facing the Reds and Twins, respectively, so I don’t even think they’re automatic passes. You’re likely trying too hard if you use either, but full stacks with those anemic offenses isn’t a great idea, either.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window