Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, August 8th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-08-10 17:09:37

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Price	TOR	NYY	402.1	2.95	2.93	1.08	52.4%	25.8%	4.2%	0.87	1.08
Nova	NYY	TOR	61.1	4.84	4.47	1.47	25.0%	13.9%	7.5%	1.47	1.63
Cain	SFG	CHC	123.1	4.38	4.15	1.31	40.0%	18.2%	7.7%	1.31	1.16
Hendricks	CHC	SFG	203	3.19	3.67	1.12		18.3%	4.9%	0.67	1.61
Latos	LAD	PIT	196.2	3.75	3.96	1.18	66.7%	18.9%	6.4%	0.78	1.09
Liriano	PIT	LAD	288.2	3.18	3.35	1.20	12.5%	26.4%	10.3%	0.72	2.05
McHugh	HOU	OAK	293.2	3.46	3.52	1.16	42.9%	21.9%	6.2%	0.86	1.31
Chavez	OAK	HOU	264.1	3.64	3.75	1.31	52.6%	21.0%	7.3%	0.95	1.16
Perez	TEX	SEA	71.2	5.02	4.13	1.38	37.5%	15.5%	8.4%	0.38	2.24
Montgomery	SEA	TEX	76.1	3.07	4.23	1.19		17.6%	8.5%	0.94	1.61
Syndergaard	NYM	TBR	94.2	2.66	2.98	1.06		26.3%	5.3%	0.76	1.38
Karns	TBR	NYM	132.1	3.47	3.76	1.17		23.0%	8.4%	1.09	1.13
Flande	COL	WAS	87	4.66	3.73	1.21		14.3%	6.7%	0.72	2.73
Strasburg	WAS	COL	276	3.59	2.84	1.20	52.4%	26.6%	5.3%	0.98	1.46
Miley	BOS	DET	328	4.42	3.95	1.40	33.3%	19.5%	8.7%	0.96	1.68
Simon	DET	BOS	313	3.85	4.31	1.29	63.2%	15.8%	7.4%	1.01	1.41
Samardzija	CHW	KCR	372.2	3.55	3.44	1.12	60.0%	20.9%	4.8%	0.89	1.36
Guthrie	KCR	CHW	315.2	4.68	4.60	1.40	42.1%	13.3%	5.9%	1.14	1.07
Garcia	STL	MIL	102.2	2.89	2.97	0.97	28.6%	20.1%	5.0%	0.88	2.83
Peralta	MIL	STL	262	3.78	3.86	1.35	47.4%	17.4%	7.2%	1.10	1.90
Koehler	MIA	ATL	312.2	3.77	4.23	1.27	52.6%	18.4%	8.7%	0.89	1.19
Foltynewicz	ATL	MIA	85.1	5.38	4.21	1.59		19.3%	7.3%	1.79	0.61
Santana	MIN	CLE	235.1	3.94	3.82	1.29	38.9%	20.8%	7.8%	0.92	1.21
Bauer	CLE	MIN	284	4.09	3.93	1.30	38.5%	22.5%	9.3%	1.08	0.87
Sampson	CIN	ARI
Ray	ARI	CIN	100.1	4.49	4.12	1.39	33.3%	19.0%	7.2%	0.81	0.88
Morgan	PHI	SDP	38.1	4.46	5.38	1.43		12.7%	7.8%	1.64	0.57
Ross	SDP	PHI	329.1	3.03	3.26	1.28	66.7%	24.4%	9.8%	0.46	3.01
Jimenez	BAL	LAA	243.1	4.44	4.16	1.43	27.8%	21.3%	10.9%	1.04	1.36
Richards	LAA	BAL	298.2	2.98	3.53	1.10	65.0%	21.9%	7.8%	0.51	1.78

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Our fantasy cup runneth over with pitching options last night, but today we feel the hangover. The All-in list is barren for tonight’s slate, and the Raise goblet is nearly dry.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Tyson Ross SD (vs. PHI) – This season Tyson Ross has been a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. The K rate: a career high at 25.0 percent. The walk rate: the highest since his rookie year at 11.1 percent (and he leads the majors with 63 free passes on the season). The homers: a career-low frequency of 0.7 percent. The homer-suppression has helped to keep the ERA in check, but if he goes through a bout of elevated pitches then the situation could get ugly in a hurry. The threat level is low today against the light-hitting Phillies, who have actually stepped it up over the past week with a .348 wOBA and a team OPS of 810.

Garrett Richards LAA (vs. BAL) – Richards has a much tougher opponent than his contemporaries in the Raise category, yet his high-octane stuff has been known to catch teams off-guard and no other pitcher has a better shot at a 30-point outing tonight on DraftKings. The season as a whole has been a letdown so far for Richards, who has regressed following a breakout 2014 campaign, and the comeback trail hasn’t been any smoother in recent weeks. He had a shutout against the Red Sox on July 18, but in the other four of his last five games he has struggled to the tune of a 5.00 ERA. The problem has been the longball, with four homers (out of 15 hits) allowed in his last three starts, and it will be a challenge for Richards to keep the ball in the yard against a Baltimore club whose 135 homers are good enough for the fourth-highest total in baseball.

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. MIN) – Bauer might have even greater upside than Richards, but the Clevelander’s range of outcomes is off the chart. The K machine that grabbed headlines in the first half has been more of a bust than a boon over the last two months, surrendering five or more runs in four of his last ten starts. He has survived the gauntlet in his last two turns, pitching 15.7 innings with a total of three runs allowed, but his four walks in 6.7 innings of his last start highlight the tightrope that Bauer walks on a regular basis. The Twins have been horrendous offensively over the past seven days, with a mere .208 wOBA and 471 OPS that officially stamp them as the coldest club in MLB. The Twins also have a 25.8-percent strikeout rate as a team for the past week (the second-highest in baseball), and this last aspect could pay huge dividends if Bauer’s command is on-course, as he has the strikeout-upside to potentially cover for a few runs that cross the plate.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Price	0.289	2.61	0.282	3.06	0.259	0.783	0.299	2.86	0.236	108.39	25.8%
Nova	0.344	3.24	0.387	6.75	0.255	0.758	0.306	5.14	0.288	84.64	13.9%
Cain	0.355	5.00	0.317	3.89	0.236	0.683	0.284	4.54	0.255	93.81	18.2%
Hendricks	0.300	2.54	0.277	3.73	0.277	0.759	0.285	3.33	0.244	89.06	18.3%
Latos	0.293	3.94	0.293	3.59	0.255	0.702	0.278	3.51	0.238	89.97	18.9%
Liriano	0.291	3.86	0.274	3.01	0.262	0.745	0.274	3.31	0.208	95.18	26.4%
McHugh	0.278	3.25	0.310	3.71	0.253	0.698	0.287	3.46	0.237	99.66	21.9%
Chavez	0.316	3.38	0.300	3.96	0.247	0.747	0.307	3.72	0.256	78.65	21.0%
Perez	0.262	6.75	0.348	4.42	0.257	0.698	0.321	3.51	0.274	90.17	15.5%
Montgomery	0.297	2.50	0.290	3.24	0.238	0.686	0.250	4.17	0.222	97.58	17.6%
Syndergaard	0.265	2.21	0.271	3.00	0.238	0.674	0.287	2.78	0.223	99.87	26.3%
Karns	0.285	2.53	0.301	4.45	0.241	0.679	0.262	3.94	0.219	94.61	23.0%
Flande	0.250	5.52	0.334	4.21	0.246	0.689	0.273	3.92	0.246	50.42	14.3%
Strasburg	0.294	3.03	0.317	4.04	0.282	0.803	0.325	3.08	0.252	92.98	26.6%
Miley	0.307	4.95	0.336	4.26	0.277	0.779	0.309	4.02	0.261	97.22	19.5%
Simon	0.345	4.43	0.288	3.23	0.259	0.715	0.279	4.29	0.252	94.85	15.8%
Samardzija	0.312	3.63	0.282	3.48	0.269	0.732	0.289	3.44	0.244	102.87	20.9%
Guthrie	0.380	5.97	0.285	3.16	0.253	0.698	0.306	4.59	0.283	98.15	13.3%
Garcia	0.340	5.16	0.246	2.25	0.220	0.656	0.246	3.49	0.213	90.31	20.1%
Peralta	0.366	5.00	0.295	2.65	0.263	0.729	0.303	4.25	0.268	97.09	17.4%
Koehler	0.305	3.83	0.309	3.70	0.258	0.686	0.277	4.04	0.24	91.49	18.4%
Foltynewicz	0.430	5.72	0.342	5.09	0.243	0.650	0.347	5.01	0.306	47.73	19.3%
Santana	0.321	3.76	0.311	4.13	0.242	0.694	0.301	3.75	0.251	96.49	20.8%
Bauer	0.311	4.25	0.318	3.94	0.244	0.689	0.289	4.09	0.239	99.70	22.5%
Sampson	0.277	3.38	0.194	5.40	0.262	0.727
Ray	0.337	3.33	0.341	4.91	0.245	0.717	0.321	3.62	0.271	83.52	19.0%
Morgan	0.300	5.79	0.383	4.03	0.227	0.640	0.287	5.62	0.28	83.71	12.7%
Ross	0.305	3.20	0.279	2.88	0.248	0.670	0.309	3.10	0.234	99.35	24.4%
Jimenez	0.334	4.90	0.316	3.89	0.248	0.705	0.299	4.29	0.248	92.89	21.3%
Richards	0.256	3.00	0.266	2.96	0.254	0.740	0.262	3.13	0.21	100.17	21.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. COL) – To roster Stras on a thin slate such as this one is immensely tempting, but in the end I decided to pass. The right-hander has had a nightmare season when on the mound, and though I believe in the core skills, his price point on DFS sites reflects the expectation that he will have fixed his ails upon his return. Aside from the risk of blowup for a pitcher with a 5.16 ERA this season, the likelihood that Stras will be on a short leash with a strict pitch count in his return from injury effectively forces him down the rankings. I won’t be surprised if he gets pulled before crossing 90 pitches, and there’s only so much that a pitcher can contribute fantasy-wise when he’s chained to the pitch-count post. He’s by far the most talented pitcher available tonight, but his wings will likely be clipped before he can soar too high.

Jeff Samardzija CHW (at KC) – The White Sox thought that they were getting a strikeout machine when they traded for the Shark in the off-season, one who had punched out 683 batters over 696.0 innings over the past four seasons. But he must have lost his K-inducing luggage in transition, because his 17.9-percent K rate this season is five percentage points lower than any previous full season of his career. He has struck out exactly three batters in each of his last four starts, one of which was against these Royals and their contact-driven approach, so there is little indication that his bags of strikeouts have been reclaimed.

Robbie Ray ARI (vs. CIN) – There’s a big talent drop from Samardzija to Ray, who faces a top-heavy Cincy offense that takes better aim at southpaws. The 3.01 ERA in 12 starts on the season is appealing, but Ray’s season has been particularly uneven, with a 1.98 mark in his first six turns but a 4.08 ERA in his last half-dozen starts. We are still getting a grip on Ray’s skill set and how well it translates, so it’s tough to say whether the league is figuring him out, he’s recently suffering from regression, or if what we’ve seen over the last month is closer to his true level of talent. The silver lining is that Reds have been especially rough on offense lately, with a .272 wOBA and 604 OPS over the past seven days, a trend that Ray owners hope will continue into tonight’s contest.

Jaime Garcia STL (at MIL) – Call me a hater, but I just don’t buy Jaime Garcia and his 1.98 ERA (or his 3.25 FIP, for that matter). His 90-92 mph fastball is modest by today’s standards, the .230 BABiP is unsustainable (his career mark is .305), and his strikeout rate has sit comfortably under 20-percent for most of his career. I’ll admit it: the delivery inspires a lot of my pessimism. His extreme over-the-top motion has been present yet inconsistent for years, and the high slot helps to mask poor command with deceivingly-low walk rates (when he misses, it tends to be up or down, which are more likely to generate strikes than pitches that miss wide of the zone). Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy are the nominal lefty killers remaining in the trade-depleted lineup of the Brewers, though Lucroy’s crater-season includes an utter collapse against southpaws.

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at LAA) – Ubaldo was enjoying a breakthrough season, and on July 8 his ERA stood at a low 2.81 for the campaign. He has been a disaster since. In three of his past four starts, Jimenez has given up six or more runs without finishing the fifth inning in either outing, inflating his ERA to 4.04 in the process. Those three beatings came at the mercy of top offenses, including the Tigers (twice) and the Yankees, while his one clean outing amidst the muck was against the Triple-A offense of the Braves. Today he catches the middle-ground offense of the Angels, whose clout is concentrated into the middle-order bats of Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Kole Calhoun. With so much of their offense tied to so few players, the Angels are vulnerable to cold streaks when one or more of the ringleaders is going through a dry spell; over the last seven days, the Halos have a poor .221 wOBA and 490 OPS.

Ervin Santana MIN (at CLE)
Tom Koehler MIA (at ATL)
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. STL)
Alfredo Simon DET (vs. BOS)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. MIA)

Wade Miley BOS (at DET) – Even with Miguel Cabrera on the shelf and Yoenis Cespedes playing ball on the east coast, it seems that every hitter in the Tiger lineup favors hitting against left-handed pitchers. Miley will discover the extent that their southpaw-killing has remained intact.

Adam Morgan PHI (at SD) – Morgan is facing the weakest lineup in the NL, but his left-handedness plays right into the hands of Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Derek Norris. That said, even with the southpaw advantage the Pads are striking out in 25-percent of their plate appearances.

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Keyvius Sampson CIN (at ARI)
Eddie Butler COL (at WAS)
Jeremy Guthrie KC (vs. CHW) – You know it’s bad when you rank dead-last despite facing one of the league’s worst offenses on a day with a weak slate for arms.

Starting Pitcher Salaries

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