Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, August 11th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graveman | OAK | TOR | 106.1 | 3.89 | 4.31 | 1.40 | 15.3% | 7.6% | 1.02 | 1.82 | |
| Hutchison | TOR | OAK | 302.2 | 4.85 | 3.75 | 1.36 | 31.6% | 22.0% | 7.4% | 1.10 | 0.91 |
| Severino | NYY | CLE | |||||||||
| Carrasco | CLE | NYY | 270.1 | 3.16 | 2.69 | 1.04 | 26.8% | 5.3% | 0.63 | 1.82 | |
| Rusin | COL | NYM | 88 | 5.01 | 3.98 | 1.61 | 15.3% | 6.5% | 1.23 | 2.05 | |
| Harvey | NYM | COL | 140 | 2.76 | 3.39 | 1.02 | 23.5% | 5.6% | 1.03 | 1.14 | |
| Perez | ATL | TBR | 60.1 | 4.48 | 4.70 | 1.54 | 15.9% | 10.7% | 0.75 | 1.73 | |
| Ramirez | TBR | ATL | 178.2 | 4.43 | 4.19 | 1.29 | 27.3% | 18.5% | 8.4% | 1.11 | 1.17 |
| Wright | BOS | MIA | 88.2 | 3.76 | 3.89 | 1.23 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 1.42 | 1.19 | |
| Nicolino | MIA | BOS | 11 | 4.09 | 5.36 | 1.18 | 9.3% | 7.0% | 0.82 | 1.08 | |
| Jungmann | MIL | CHC | 71.2 | 2.26 | 3.62 | 1.07 | 21.4% | 7.4% | 0.25 | 1.77 | |
| Haren | CHC | MIL | 320 | 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.15 | 30.0% | 17.8% | 4.8% | 1.41 | 0.86 |
| Santiago | LAA | CHW | 256.2 | 3.26 | 4.16 | 1.27 | 16.7% | 21.2% | 8.6% | 1.16 | 0.61 |
| Rodon | CHW | LAA | 84.2 | 5.00 | 4.23 | 1.68 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 0.74 | 1.65 | |
| Sanchez | DET | KCR | 275.1 | 4.18 | 3.81 | 1.19 | 41.2% | 20.5% | 6.8% | 0.95 | 1.13 |
| Ventura | KCR | DET | 278.1 | 3.91 | 3.90 | 1.31 | 44.4% | 19.8% | 8.4% | 0.81 | 1.59 |
| Gallardo | TEX | MIN | 324.2 | 3.49 | 4.08 | 1.31 | 50.0% | 16.9% | 7.5% | 0.89 | 1.71 |
| Gibson | MIN | TEX | 315 | 4.17 | 4.12 | 1.30 | 52.6% | 15.3% | 7.5% | 0.74 | 2.06 |
| Locke | PIT | STL | 250.1 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.33 | 66.7% | 17.1% | 8.0% | 0.93 | 1.84 |
| Martinez | STL | PIT | 218.2 | 3.17 | 3.48 | 1.34 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 0.62 | 2.03 | |
| Buchanan | PHI | ARI | 165 | 4.75 | 4.48 | 1.42 | 20.0% | 13.3% | 7.1% | 0.93 | 1.63 |
| Hellickson | ARI | PHI | 179.1 | 4.87 | 4.05 | 1.41 | 19.1% | 7.2% | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Lorenzen | CIN | SDP | 89.1 | 4.84 | 5.18 | 1.58 | 16.1% | 12.8% | 1.51 | 1.19 | |
| Rea | SDP | CIN | |||||||||
| Tillman | BAL | SEA | 321 | 3.70 | 4.37 | 1.26 | 42.9% | 17.1% | 8.0% | 0.87 | 1.08 |
| Walker | SEA | BAL | 167 | 4.20 | 3.64 | 1.23 | 22.8% | 7.4% | 1.24 | 1.08 | |
| Ross | WAS | LAD | 45 | 2.80 | 2.50 | 0.91 | 26.7% | 2.3% | 0.80 | 1.82 | |
| Greinke | LAD | WAS | 354.2 | 2.28 | 2.99 | 1.02 | 50.0% | 24.5% | 5.0% | 0.69 | 1.61 |
| Kazmir | HOU | SFG | 320.1 | 2.95 | 3.69 | 1.12 | 63.2% | 21.4% | 7.0% | 0.67 | 1.21 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | HOU | 362.2 | 3.10 | 3.03 | 1.09 | 47.6% | 25.1% | 4.7% | 0.92 | 1.20 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Zack Greinke LAD (vs. WAS) – The respective scoreless streaks of teammates Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke might be over, but neither pitcher is conceding his stake in the claim for the Cy Young award. For his part, Greinke leads the majors in ERA (1.71), WHIP (0.853), and winning percentage (0.846, 11-2 record). The low hit rate (6.1 hits per nine innings) also leads the majors, but before calling shenanigans, consider that he’s also walking fewer of the hitters that he faces (1.4 percent) than any other season since his rookie year. To top it off, Greinke’s homer rate is the lowest it’s been in six years.
Matt Harvey NYM (vs. COL) – Just two starts ago, I was fading Harvey due to a rough patch that saw him walk 13 batters in the span of three ballgames, this on the heels of walking just 17 batters through his first 99.3 innings of the season. Pitch command is paramount for any pitcher, even when he has the high-90’s heat and devastating repertoire that Harvey owns. He has the mechanics to encourage a repeatable release point, yet a couple hundredths of a second can make a big difference and the element of pitch command is particularly sensitive to timing. When a pitcher is off his game it can last for weeks, and there’s no telling when he will re-harness his own delivery. The green light flashes when such an elite pitcher gets back on track, and the feedback from Harvey’s last two starts helps to raise the confidence that he can bring his A-game tonight against the Rox. The two-game totals: 14.7 innings, one run allowed, seven hits, 15 strikeouts and zero walks.
Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. HOU) – Bumgarner has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his last 11 starts; he’s surrendered five or more tallies apiece in each of the other three. He has 87 strikeouts in that 76-inning stretch, a rate that could improve today against an Astros lineup that has a batter K rate of 23.5-percent on the season. The left-hander entered the season amid doubts from the fantasy community that he would show no ill effects from 2014’s heavy postseason workload. Yet Bummer has shown no ill effects. The stuff and mechanics remain as sound as ever, and his peripheral stats indicate that he just keeps getting better: his 25.1-percent K rate matches last season’s career high, and his 4.4-percent walk rate is the lowest of his tenure.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. NYY) – The trials and tribulations of Carlos Carrasco can be exhausting for a fantasy owner, as just when he has gained some trust he’ll go out and get jumped, He has a very tough opponent tonight, but the recent performance suggests that the only man that can stop Carrasco is Carrasco himself. He has tossed consecutive complete games while giving up one total run, with 14 strikeouts, two walks, and just three combined hits over the two games; the start prior to that he was ambushed for six runs against the White Sox.
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. PIT) – Everything about Martinez defies consistency, from his whirlwind delivery with the inconsistent release point to the near-10-percent walk rate, which is actually within a rounding error of his exorbitant free-pass rate from last season. Yet his track record for run prevention has been one of the most solid in the bigs. He gave up five runs two starts ago, but it was only the fourth time of the season that he had surrendered more than two tallies and his only start with more than three runs allowed since early May. He hasn’t had a multi-homer game since his first start of the year and has consistently limited hits this season, despite hits being the one stat that might be least within his control.
Scott Kazmir HOU (at SF) – Kazmir is taking well to Houston. He has given up just one earned run in his first 20.3 innings for the Astros, continuing a scorching streak in which the southpaw has a 0.45 ERA over his last six starts. That type of run prevention is necessary to separate the wheat from the chaff when the pitcher in question has a modest strikeout rate, and though Kazmir’s 21.9-percent K frequency on the season is nothing to sneeze at, his success in Texas has come despite a small-sample rate of just 13 punchouts in his 20-plus innings of work. He faces a dangerous Giants lineup that has a .322 wOBA and 738 OPS on the season, though that OPS drops 52 points when an opposing lefty is on the mound.
Luis Severino NYY (at CLE) – Severino is the value recommendation for today, coming in at just $5500 in salary on Draft Kings but with the upside to hang with pitchers that cost twice that amount. He’s armed with a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s and touches 97 mph, in addition to a slider-cutter hybrid with sharp, subtle break at 90 mph. Today he faces a Cleveland club that is without Jason Kipnis (disabled list) and who recently traded the likes of Brandon Moss, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and David Murphy; the result is a considerably less-imposing task for Severino in his second career start, though it’s worth noting that these depleted Indians have been undeterred in generating a .370 wOBA and 870 OPS over the last seven days.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graveman | 0.334 | 4.39 | 0.324 | 3.24 | 0.255 | 0.760 | 0.303 | 4.38 | 0.272 | 74.00 | 15.3% |
| Hutchison | 0.320 | 3.80 | 0.353 | 5.77 | 0.253 | 0.699 | 0.318 | 3.92 | 0.263 | 93.65 | 22.0% |
| Severino | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.251 | 0.715 | |||||||
| Carrasco | 0.278 | 3.35 | 0.228 | 2.67 | 0.257 | 0.751 | 0.291 | 2.63 | 0.222 | 64.56 | 26.8% |
| Rusin | 0.371 | 4.55 | 0.397 | 6.06 | 0.222 | 0.647 | 0.347 | 4.41 | 0.311 | 79.44 | 15.3% |
| Harvey | 0.234 | 1.78 | 0.267 | 2.80 | 0.280 | 0.799 | 0.256 | 3.47 | 0.215 | 97.86 | 23.5% |
| Perez | 0.297 | 2.94 | 0.341 | 4.60 | 0.240 | 0.679 | 0.319 | 4.59 | 0.275 | 76.08 | 15.9% |
| Ramirez | 0.335 | 5.14 | 0.325 | 4.97 | 0.260 | 0.689 | 0.277 | 4.46 | 0.243 | 69.37 | 18.5% |
| Wright | 0.321 | 3.35 | 0.345 | 4.73 | 0.244 | 0.652 | 0.265 | 4.50 | 0.241 | 67.52 | 18.9% |
| Nicolino | 0.318 | 4.50 | 0.211 | 0.255 | 0.715 | 0.265 | 4.65 | 0.256 | 73.00 | 9.3% | |
| Jungmann | 0.240 | 2.54 | 0.258 | 2.36 | 0.237 | 0.688 | 0.277 | 2.89 | 0.217 | 102.09 | 21.4% |
| Haren | 0.308 | 3.83 | 0.334 | 4.54 | 0.259 | 0.709 | 0.265 | 4.36 | 0.245 | 96.35 | 17.8% |
| Santiago | 0.320 | 3.79 | 0.318 | 3.24 | 0.235 | 0.624 | 0.276 | 4.20 | 0.236 | 86.17 | 21.2% |
| Rodon | 0.394 | 5.31 | 0.349 | 3.89 | 0.240 | 0.686 | 0.360 | 4.00 | 0.276 | 89.67 | 23.2% |
| Sanchez | 0.332 | 5.61 | 0.325 | 4.07 | 0.268 | 0.732 | 0.278 | 3.67 | 0.236 | 99.62 | 20.5% |
| Ventura | 0.317 | 3.84 | 0.320 | 4.03 | 0.274 | 0.758 | 0.295 | 3.78 | 0.247 | 94.19 | 19.8% |
| Gallardo | 0.313 | 3.60 | 0.290 | 3.15 | 0.244 | 0.693 | 0.287 | 3.97 | 0.252 | 100.00 | 16.9% |
| Gibson | 0.309 | 4.45 | 0.310 | 4.64 | 0.262 | 0.744 | 0.288 | 3.93 | 0.255 | 94.75 | 15.3% |
| Locke | 0.324 | 4.11 | 0.356 | 5.24 | 0.234 | 0.670 | 0.292 | 4.15 | 0.256 | 93.05 | 17.1% |
| Martinez | 0.274 | 2.72 | 0.301 | 3.06 | 0.258 | 0.711 | 0.316 | 3.36 | 0.247 | 43.43 | 23.2% |
| Buchanan | 0.358 | 5.58 | 0.341 | 4.54 | 0.262 | 0.725 | 0.305 | 4.41 | 0.278 | 89.69 | 13.3% |
| Hellickson | 0.356 | 4.99 | 0.342 | 5.22 | 0.249 | 0.674 | 0.307 | 4.37 | 0.268 | 92.88 | 19.1% |
| Lorenzen | 0.310 | 4.02 | 0.388 | 4.71 | 0.242 | 0.674 | 0.285 | 5.73 | 0.263 | 87.06 | 16.1% |
| Rea | 0.252 | 0.710 | |||||||||
| Tillman | 0.316 | 4.59 | 0.333 | 4.33 | 0.235 | 0.698 | 0.275 | 4.02 | 0.242 | 97.87 | 17.1% |
| Walker | 0.320 | 4.78 | 0.319 | 4.23 | 0.253 | 0.739 | 0.287 | 4.10 | 0.241 | 87.57 | 22.8% |
| Ross | 0.154 | 1.65 | 0.277 | 3.10 | 0.255 | 0.760 | 0.277 | 2.57 | 0.218 | 92.57 | 26.7% |
| Greinke | 0.266 | 2.56 | 0.276 | 2.48 | 0.249 | 0.711 | 0.279 | 2.83 | 0.222 | 100.69 | 24.5% |
| Kazmir | 0.273 | 2.95 | 0.301 | 3.36 | 0.261 | 0.686 | 0.271 | 3.28 | 0.223 | 94.11 | 21.4% |
| Bumgarner | 0.298 | 3.33 | 0.284 | 2.92 | 0.241 | 0.724 | 0.298 | 3.09 | 0.237 | 101.67 | 25.1% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. BAL) – Walker’s performance has traced the path of a ping-pong ball this season, bumping back and forth between dominant and horrific with little indication of an impending change in direction. He had a seven-start run that bookended June with a 1.68 ERA, then was hit for 22 runs in his next 21.3 innings, only to turn it back around with a nine-inning shutdown of the Twins that included one hit, one walk, one run allowed and 11 strikeouts. He spun a quality start in Colorado in his last turn, a feat nearly as impressive as the one-hitter, and though it would seem that he’s currently on one of his upswings in erformance there is no telling when he will swing back in the other direction.
Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. LAA) – Rodon is a GPP favorite, as his ridiculous volatility includes elite upside juxtaposed against the possibility that he will crater against Mike Trout and the Angels, sinking your DFS battleship in the process. The slider is already one of the best in the bigs and Rodon has the baselines for stuff and mechanics to flummox MLB hitters for years, but until he harnesses consistency there will always be the risk of an implosion.
Joe Ross WAS (vs. LAD) – Ross was a DFS darling for his last several starts, with a modest dent to the payroll but the talent to match up with most pitchers on a game-to-game basis. He still has the talent (and the slider) to match up with anybody, but the combination of his stacked opponent – the Dodgers have a .330 wOBA this season – and his low K rate in the minors make the case that his incredible K-to-walk ratio of 47 punchouts against just four free passes (in 45.0 innings this season) will be short-lived. Throw in a price tag that has caught up to the talent in a hurry, and Ross doesn’t provide the immense value today that was available in his last few starts.
Hector Santiago LAA (at CHW) – Santiago draws an easy dance partner today, as the lowly White Sox plunge to new depths when a lefty is on the mound for the opposition. As a team, the Pale Hose has a .274 wOBA, a 624 OPS, and a K rate of 24.3 percent this season. Santiago has had his best year to date in the bigs, but his last few starts have been less than pleasant with a 6.19 ERA in 16.0 innings. He;s recorded just 15 outs in three of his last four starts, but the White Sox provide the opportunity for Santiago to get back on track.
Yovani Gallardo TEX (at MIN)
Erasmo Ramirez TB (vs. ATL)
Anibal Sanchez DET (at KC)
Yordano Ventura (vs. DET)
Taylor Jungmann MIL (at CHC)
Dan Haren CHC (vs. MIL)
Michael Lorenzen CIN (at SD)
Steven Wright BOS (at MIA)
Drew Hutchison TOR (vs. OAK)
Jeff Locke PIT (at STL)
Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. TEX)
Williams Perez ATL (at TB)
Jeremy Hellickson ARI (vs. PHI)
Chris Tillman BAL (at SEA)
Chris Rusin COL (at NYM)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Justin Nicolino MIA (vs. BOS)
Colin Rea SD (vs. CIN)
Kendall Graveman OAK (at TOR) – Playing the Jays in Toronto? Graveman might as well be pitching in Colorado.
David Buchanan PHI (at ARI)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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