Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Philadelphia Phillies
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Philadelphia Phillies Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 89.5
— World Series Odds: 12/1
— Key Additions: Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Nick Williams, Andrew Knapp, Roman Quinn, Scott Kingery, Jerad Eickhoff
— Outlook: You’d be very excited last summer if we told you the Phillies were able to add Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, and Andrew McCutchen to hit in front of Rhys Hoskins. If we then proceeded to tell you they also added Bryce Harper, you might have done a backflip. Folks, it’s time to uncork your best backflip. The 2019 Philadelphia Phillies are absolutely lit, and it only cost them a literal fortune.
Harper didn’t shatter the Statcast trackers with his 90.6 MPH exit velocity a season ago (rank 49), but it’s also fair to say that opposing pitchers aren’t giving him equal opportunity to do so. Ryan Zimmerman is great, but going after him seems a lot more plausible with Harper on first than it does Rhys Hoskins or J.T. Realmuto. Hopefully we get to see guys pitch to Harper a little more often than we’ve seen in the past. Even if we don’t, our Phillies stacks just got a lot more exciting with Harper in the mix.
Jean Segura (61.94 stolen base rating, Rank 14 in Hits) is a big time boost to the top of the order, as is Andrew McCutchen. You may not remember McCutchen as having a great season in 2018, but after a reported bruised knee in May his power dipped for a stretch. Towards the end of the year, we saw the ball leaving the bat at higher speeds on average. Injury may or may not have been the reason, but surely we can see he finished the season strong. There is reason for optimism for his time in hitter friendly Citizen’s Bank Park.
We could talk about the changes to this lineup and the quality of the hitters within it for a lot longer. At the end of the day, they are loaded with talent and will sky rocket in popularity for DFS. We’ll have to be creative with the high price tags that are likely to come along for the ride.
Starting pitching in Philadelphia is also in great shape, led by ace Aaron Nola. PlateIQ loves everything about him, from the soft contact ability to the well above average strikeouts. He’ll be on the DFS map for years to come. Jake Arrieta isn’t great for DFS, but should be adequate in real life and not particularly easy to stack against. Nick Pivetta (27.1% K) and Vince Velasquez (25.6% K) have considerably higher ceiling with their strikeout abilities, but also tend to get hit a lot harder when they don’t miss bats. The bottom line is that they have enough talent in the starting rotation to support winning baseball, and we’ll be interested in their strikeout ability for DFS.
— DFS Ownership Trends: Bryce Harper was the 9th most popular hitter in baseball last season, and that could rise if this roster reaches potential. Your leverage isn’t likely to come from him. Jean Segura (Rank 102), Andrew McCutchen (Rank 100), Rhys Hoskins (Rank 44), and J.T. Realmuto (Rank 98) will all rise in price and ownership rank, but should still be substantially less popular than Harper. The real value on this stack may come from the bottom of the order. Odubel Herrara (rank 227), Maikel Franco (Rank 306), Nick Williams (Rank 344) and Cesar Hernandez (Rank 296) will all be lower owned and see enhanced opportunity if this team is producing more runs overall.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— When you’re on the cover of Sport Illustrated at 16, drafted first overall, and in MLB two years before you can legally order a beer at a bar, it comes with certain expectations, maybe even unreasonable ones. But Bryce Harper is one of only four players to hit 184 home runs, swipe 75 bases, and post an on-base percentage of .388 or better prior to his 27th birthday: the others are Mike Trout, Frank Robinson, and Mickey Mantle. Maybe a change of scenery and a park upgrade will be enough allow Harper to pacify some of his doubters.
— Here is a look at Aaron Nola then and now:
Aaron Nola games of 10+ strikeouts in 60 career starts prior to 2018: 2
Aaron Nola games of 10+ strikeouts in 33 starts in 2018: 6
Nola found a way to ramp up the Ks last year, and he did it without sacrificing his elite ability to generate weak contact. His 25.1% hard-hit rate was second-best in MLB among qualified pitchers, behind only Zack Wheeler. For DFS purposes, Nola is a readymade cash game option given his floor/ceiling combo.