Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Tampa Bay Rays
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Tampa Bay Rays Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 84.5
— World Series Odds: 25/1
— Key Additions: Mike Zunino, Guillermo Heredia, Avisail Garcia, Charlie Morton
— Lineup Update 3/17/2019: Brandon Lowe may start the season ahead of Matt Duffy due to a hamstring injury.
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Daniel Robertson, Michael Perez, Guillermo Heredia, Nate Lowe (minors), Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz
— Outlook: The AL East is probably not in reach for this inauspicious collection of players, and they absolutely won’t be at the top of your list on most DFS slates. However, this is a young group and we don’t know if we’ve seen the best of everyone here.
Tommy Pham is the elder statesman at age 30. His speed (66.36 PlateIQ stolen base rating) and power (92,8 MPH Exit Velocity, Rank 9th) haven’t fully manifested into a truly monster season. Kevin Kiermaier had a nice 2017 season, but fell off in 2018. A bounce back is surely not unrealistic. The core of the order featuring Joey Wendle, Avisail Garcia, Ji-Man Choi, and Austin Meadows is perhaps one of the least inspiring in baseball. Strike out machine catcher Mike Zunino can’t get on base, but he can blast HRs for your DFS lineup if you catch him on the right night. The sum total of parts is a lineup that will be often overlooked, and they are more than a few players away from being able to take down the loaded Red Sox and Yankees.
The pitching situation couldn’t be more different than the bats. Cy Young award winner Blake Snell headlines and fantastic group of starters and “openers.” Snell dropped a 31.6% K rate and 3.3 SIERA a season ago on his way to the league’s most coveted pitching prize. Charlie Morton also had his best ever DFS season for the Astros in 2018, maintaining his sick stuff and blowing away batters at a 28.9% rate. Tyler Glasnow was allergic to Pittsburgh apparently. His change of zip code to Tampa Bay late last season resulted in him finally flashing the upside his scouting report once promised. Those three high quality starters coupled with their somewhat controversial “opener” strategy figures to keep them in the neighborhood of their 84.5 Vegas win total.
— DFS Ownership Trends: Blake Snell was just the 23rd most popular DFS starter despite his Cy Young season. It seems a bit unlikely he doesn’t jump up a spot or ten depending on his price tag.
The Rays were just the 26th most popular DFS lineup in 2018 and it seems very likely they’ll be in basement again this season. They are quite unattractive on paper. With a massive pitchers ball park and a quality pitching staff, these games are going to be so unpopular for bats that you might forget they are happening in 2019.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Last year, only one pitcher in MLB (min. 100 IP) had better than a 29% strikeout rate and a 49% ground ball rate: Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow’s walk rate is never going to be pretty, but if he can get whiffs and grounders at anything close to this rate, he’s sure to be a popular DFS option in 2019, especially given the ballpark he plays in.
— Tommy Pham has reached base in 32 consecutive games, the longest active streak in MLB. It’s safe to say Pham is enjoying life after Mike Matheny; since being dealt to the Rays at the deadline, Pham has posted a 191 wRC+, tied with Mookie Betts for third-best in MLB over that span.