Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Texas Rangers
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Texas Rangers Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 71.5
— World Series Odds: 1000/1
— Key Additions: Jeff Mathis, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Jesse Chavez, Drew Smyly
Other Noteworthy DFS Players: Patrick Wisdom, Willie Calhoun, Jeff Mathis
— Outlook: The Texas Rangers offense hasn’t changed much from the group that won 67 games last season, and that’s problematic. We’ll find ways to get involved with any team that plays half of their games in one of the leagues best hitters parks, but this absolutely has the look of a team that is 1000/1 to the win the World Series.
The core hitters in 2019 include Choo, Mazara, Andrus, Odor, and Gallo. They all seem to have their individual moments and games, but they also have big issues. Four of them strike out at over a 20% rate and only Choo had an on-base percentage over league average in 2018. In fact, the entire projected lineup features 8 hitters with OBPs of .326 or below. The description so far is that of a high strikeout team that doesn’t get on base. We know that hitting the ball is good, and we know getting on base is good. That must mean (for this and many other reasons) that the 2019 Texas Rangers are, in all likelihood, not good.
The bats look like they belong in Cooperstown when compared to the pitching staff. The word disaster comes to mind. They brought in four new names to the rotation, with each name getting progressively more hilarious.
Let’s start with the somewhat unknown in Drew Smyly. He’s coming back after two lost seasons to Tommy John surgery. THE BAT by Derek Carty is giving him the benefit of the doubt with an 8-8 record and 4.21 ERA, but other projection systems are forecasting an ERA over 4.7. His performance isn’t likely to be show stopping to say the least.
Edinson Volquez is also returning from Tommy John surgery. He’s hitting 97 on the gun in spring training, but he himself was skeptical afterwards of the velocity sustaining. He’s been effective against sub-major league quality lineups in spring, but pitching in Texas in July will be a far tougher test. The last we saw him, he was hovering around a 5 SIERA and 16 to 20% strikeouts over a four year span. The walk rate bounced between above average and awful for 7 straight seasons. The only way the 35 year old Volquez makes a big impact is via a total transformation from his previous form, and unfortunately nobody is predicting that at the moment.
Lance Lynn is a Jeckyll/Hyde type pitcher with extreme splits. He struggles with control and has had homerun issues in the past. He’s been over 10% walks in each of the last two seasons, which puts a dent in his DFS upside for a number of reasons. Texas is a terrible location for him, and not even his respectable 23% strikeouts will be enough to propel him to consistent DFS viability.
The Rangers are the latest team to attempt a rescue of Shelby Miller ‘s career. Over the course of 52 batted balls in 2018, Miller allowed what would have been the worst barrel rate in baseball at 11.4% if he qualified. I had to look twice to ensure the 10.69 ERA was correct, and likewise the 7.7% soft contact rate. Miller is also coming off a streak of injuries that includes elbow inflammation and Tommy John surgery. Maybe you can tell me what part of this paragraph sounds like a good thing for a Rangers pitcher in 100 degree heat. It sounds to me like Miller, and the rest of the Rangers starters, are in for a world of hurt in 2019.
— DFS Ownership Trends: Arlington was the second most popular park for hitters in 2018, and it might find a way to take the top spot this season if the pitchers don’t outperform their expectation. The Rangers themselves were just the 15th most popular team, and that speaks volumes about how often we targeted their staff last season given how popular the park was. Shelby Miller wasn’t fantastic last season, and yet stacks against him weren’t as common as you might think. 99 Pitchers had a higher % owned against, and that has to be exploited if he continues to struggle with hard contact in Texas.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— For the second straight year, Joey Gallo homered 40+ times, and for the second straight year, he hit fewer singles than homers. Only three other times in MLB history has a player with 40 long balls hit fewer than 40 singles in the same year: Barry Bonds in 2001 (73 HRs, 49 singles) and Mark McGwire in 1998 (70 HRs, 61 singles) and 1999 (65 HRs, 58 singles). Gallo is the prototypical homer-or-bust GPP play.
— Lance Lynn is a pitcher best deployed against righty-heavy lineups. Since 2015 (Lynn’s last three seasons, as he missed all of 2016), Lynn is one of just 12 pitchers (min. 250 IP) with a sub-.280 wOBA and a K rate above 26.0% against righties. The pitchers joining him are all elite (Scherzer, Kershaw, Sale, Nola, deGrom…you get it). In that same span, left-handed hitters have tagged him for a .355 wOBA on just 15.9% strikeouts.