DraftKings Week 11 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator can be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to help determine undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
Heading into the final few months of the season, we should start to see significantly more usefulness in our Fantasy RSI data given that we have 10 full weeks of DraftKings’ salary changes to analyze. With that in mind, let’s dive into the Week 11 numbers!
DraftKings Most Overvalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Alvin Kamara – $9200
Full Disclaimer: I am one of the biggest Kamara fans around. I think he’s the league’s best all-around RB and he’s just electric to watch play. However, there are certainly some reasons to doubt the Pro Bowl rusher headed into Week 11.
The 2020 Saints’ target RBs on 33% of their pass attempts, more than any team over the last 5 seasons. Some of that is due to schemed up looks, but the primary reason for that absurd target rate is Drew Brees affinity for passes close to the line of scrimmage. Only check-down legend Alex Smith has a lower average depth of target (ADoT) than Drew Brees does this year. Add in another 6 missed games from lead WR Michael Thomas, and it’s no wonder why Kamara was the star of the Saint’s passing attack through the first half of the year.
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With Thomas back in the lineup, and more importantly, Brees suffering a rib injury that’s expected to sideline him for at least this week, I couldn’t think of a worse situation to roster Kamara at a season-high price tag. Presumptive starter Jameis Winston is the polar opposite of Brees, an aggressive gunslinger who had the only 30 TD, 30 INT season in NFL history last year. Winston’s 2019 RB target rate of just 19% does Kamara no favors and his 2019 ADoT of 10.9 is nearly double Brees’ current number of 5.9. The bottom line: Kamara won’t see the pass game work we’ve grown accustomed to this season, and at $9200, that makes him a clear fade.
Kareem Hunt – $6700
With Nick Chubb back in the lineup, it’s now incredibly difficult to justify Hunt’s RB1-tier salary. On Sunday, in abysmal weather conditions, Hunt logged a 59% snap share, 4 targets, and 50% of the RB carries. Solid numbers given the backfield split, but Chubb still recorded 19 carries and 126 yards in his first game back, something we should see again and again with both Chubb and Hunt healthy. Hunt’s certainly still a valuable fantasy commodity, but there is no doubt he’s overpriced while in this backfield timeshare as Week 11’s 9th-most expensive RB.
Damien Harris – $5700
The Sony Michel redux starred on Sunday Night Football, carrying the ball 22 times for 121 yards while playing 55% of the snaps. Much like Michel, Harris is incredibly game script dependent and unfortunately for fantasy purposes, has only seen 1 carry inside the 5-yardline and 2 targets in his six games this season. At $5700, Harris is more expensive than potential Week 11 starters Duke Johnson, Gio Bernard, and Melvin Gordon, all of whom have a higher ceiling thanks to their roles in the pass game. Absent any major role change for Harris, his range of outcomes is simply too narrow to justify much, or any, tournament exposure in Week 11.
Drew Lock – $5400
Thanks to Joe Flacco, Drew Lock is currently safe from being considered the NFL’s worst starting QB. Even so, the 2nd-year Lock has been a complete liability to both fantasy owners and the Denver Broncos themselves. Sure, Lock had a 30+ fantasy point game against Atlanta in Week 9, but so has nearly every QB that’s faced Atlanta. In Lock’s 12 career starts, he’s had as many single-digit fantasy outings as 20+ point performances. Among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this year, Lock ranks 31st in PFF passing grade, 34th in passer rating, last in completion %, 31st in yards per attempt, and 29th in fantasy points. Dealing with a rib injury ahead of a tough matchup against a talented Miami Dolphins’ secondary, Lock is too defective of a QB to be considered in any DFS tournament with less than 200,000 entries.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Redacted Jets Players
There is simply no hope for this offense. The Jets are last in the NFL in yards per game, yards per play, points per game, point differential, team PFF grade, and of course, record. At this point in the year, Jets players can be safely discarded to the ‘do not play under any circumstances’ column.
Devin Duvernay – $3000
By far the most unproven player I’ll talk about in this piece, Duvernay has slowly seen his role in the Baltimore offense increase with each passing week, and is an intriguing value for Week 11. In Weeks 8, 9, and 10 Duvernay earned a nearly 50% snap share, but just 5 total touches. With Nick Boyle succumbing to a knee injury on Sunday, Baltimore will forced to turn to their receivers even more, providing some optimism for Duvernay to see more overall touches. Granted, recommending any Ravens’ pass catcher is tricky given the poor passing output we’ve witnessed from 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson. Even so, at the minimum price with under 2% ownership, Duvernay is the ultimate tournament flier in Week 11.
The reasons I listed above for Kamara pessimism are the same reasons to be optimistic for this pair of Saints’ pass catchers headed into Week 11. Jameis Winston loves throwing the ball deep, and with Tre’Quan Smith suffering a concussion on Sunday, Cook and Sanders are now the only healthy players on the team with an ADoT over 9.0 yards downfield. While Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara will surely still be the Saints’ top options, Sanders and Cook are both woefully underpriced given the current QB situation. In Week 11, we can expect those playing Jameis Winston to pair him with either Kamara or Thomas, opening up a massive leverage opportunity for players stacking Sanders or Cook with Winston instead.
A.J. Green – $3700
As frustrating as this thought is, Green is an excellent value this week. The veteran WR has a 20% target share on a team that throws the ball at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL. Green’s difference between his actual fantasy scoring and his expected fantasy scoring is -5.5 DraftKings points, making him by far the unluckiest WR in the league. With a snap share greater than 70% on the season, Green will continue to take the field and see passes thrown his way. At just $3700 on DraftKings, it’s only a matter of time before Green’s 7.6 targets per game (more than A.J. Brown, DJ Chark, Adam Thielen, and Chris Godwin) turns into a solid fantasy outing.
Matthew Stafford – $6000
Ahead of a matchup with a Carolina Panthers’ team that’s giving up 27.2 PPG, Stafford is the 3rd-cheapest he’s been all season. The potential return of star WR Kenny Golladay would provide a further boost for the veteran QB, who has averaged 20.8 DraftKings points with Golladay in the lineup and just 16.9 without him. Stafford hasn’t been a tournament winner this year, but his 9.0 ADoT shows he’s aggressive enough in pushing the ball downfield to warrant serious tournament consideration, especially against a Panthers’ defense that’s allowed the 4th-most passing yards per game
Matt Ryan – $6300
In what should be the highest total matchup of Week 11, Matt Ryan clocks in at just $6300, making him the main slate’s 6th-most expensive healthy QB. Assuming Jameis Winston is still Jameis Winston (spoiler alert: he is), we should expect a game scoring environment similar to what we saw from the 2019 Buccaneers, who averaged 56.7 combined points per game in 2019, including 53.5 total points in their two games vs. Atlanta. The Falcons give up more fantasy points to opposing QBs than any other team, and Jameis Winston has historically played in significantly higher scoring games than almost any other QB over the last half-decade. These two factors combined should force Matt Ryan into his best fantasy performance of the year, because that’s what he’ll need for Atlanta to win. The potential return of WR Calvin Ridley adds another reason onto why Ryan is arguably week 11’s top fantasy QB.