DraftKings Week 14 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator can be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to help determine undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
After a quite exciting and unusual Week 13, it’s time to run through our Week 14 salary data and see where we can identify some early week values.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI 
David Montgomery – $6500
Two of Montgomery’s three highest-scoring fantasy performances in his career have come in the last two weeks. As the second-most expensive he’s ever been in Week 14, it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the sophomore RB. Approaching a true RB1 price tag, Montgomery has the unique distinction of being both very talented (4th among RBs in avoided tackles) and a low-upside play when priced at $6500 thanks to his 0 career games with more than 30 DraftKings points. While Montgomery’s increased receiving role has led to more fantasy consistency, his main concern for those looking to take down a DFS tournament is what I’ll refer to as ‘explosiveness’.
Ranking top-10 in carries through 14 weeks shouldn’t result in ranking 21st in runs of over 10 yards. Among the 32 RBs with more than 100 carries, Montgomery ranks 23rd in his % of runs of 15+ yards. That’s behind David Johnson, who hasn’t looked explosive in nearly half a decade. The reality for D-Mont is that he’s great at avoiding tackles in space and that’s…. about it. Without the potential for 50+ yard slate-breaking runs or a massive increase in his receiving role, he’s not going to record a score you need to win a large-field tournament anytime soon.
Rob Gronkowski – $4800
Well out of his prime, Gronk is unfortunately locked into what can only be referred to as the ‘dead TE zone’ of TEs priced from $4000-$5500. Involved enough to see a consistent workload, but not involved enough to score 25+ fantasy points, these TEs have largely been a trap for fantasy grinders this season. Similarly priced players like Evan Engram, Zach Ertz, and Hunter Henry at least offer the luxury of being their team’s #2 or #3 pass catcher and a roughly 20% target share. With Gronk competing with Ronald Jones and Leonard “Fat Lenny” Fournette for #4 on the Bucs in targets, things are not looking good for the veteran from a volume perspective. Mike Evans insane red zone target share takes away what made Gronk an incredible fantasy player to begin with: massive amounts of end zone targets. There are just much better options at Gronk’s price point this week.
Devontae Booker – $5400
With Josh Jacobs likely out again in Week 14 against the Colts, Booker will have another opportunity to be the Raiders starting RB. In what should have been the ideal game script against an abysmal Jets’ team, Booker logged a 42% snap share, 16 carries, and 1 reception for an unimpressive 6.1 DraftKings points. Against a much better defense and presumably worse game script, Booker is likely headed for another disappointing performance. Outside of Josh Jacobs, it’s safe to say you can’t trust anybody for fantasy purposes in this backfield.
Dalvin Cook – $9400
Week 14’s most expensive RB should have difficulty recreating his early-season blowup performances with Minnesota as a 6.5-point underdog to Tampa Bay. The Bucs’ present the double-whammy of the NFL’s best rush defense and the likelihood of a negative game script given that they are a much better overall team than the Vikings. While Cook is certainly talented enough to overcome these handicaps, another problem emerges when you look at the other RBs in his price range: Derrick Henry and CMC. Both of those RBs have better matchups and are playing in games their teams are favored in, making them both better plays than Cook. I don’t think it’s out of the question to try to gain some leverage on tournament fields with extra Cook exposure, but at this point, he’s clearly the #3 play among the expensive RBs.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI 
The Saints
With the potential return of Drew Brees in Week 14, Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jared Cook are all available at steep discounts. Obviously, if Brees is ruled out, everything I’m about to say is meaningless, but until we get that news let’s assume he’s playing. For those unaware, this offense has been completely different depending on whether Brees or Hill is under center.
With Taysom Hill at QB, Kamara saw just under 8% of the Saints’ targets, compared to 31% with Drew Brees as the starter. Overall, New Orleans’ pass rate fell 13% over the last three weeks, rendering both Jared Cook and Emmanuel Sanders irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Both pass-catchers also suffered due to Micheal Thomas coming back to a nearly 50% target share courtesy of Taysom Hill. Brees’ return will both reignite the Saints passing attack and assist in a more balanced redistribution of the Saints’ targets. If Brees is a go in Week 14, fire up all three of the Saints on this list.
Tom Brady – $6900
Brady shapes up as a top QB option in Week 14 against a bottom-10 pass defense in Minnesota. Brady’s fantasy stock has seen an overall boost in 2020 thanks to the combination of Bruce Arians’ downfield passing scheme and the Buccaneers’ plethora of receiving talent. The veteran QB’s average depth of target (ADoT) has increased almost 1.5 yards compared to 2019, and Tampa Bay is throwing the ball 5% more often than last year’s Patriots. With the necessary passing volume and receiving talent to put up 35+ DraftKings points, Week 14 is an ideal opportunity to roster a rather polarizing fantasy QB.
Kyler Murray – $7200
Kyler has seen a $1300 price decrease since Week 11, which is no surprise given his three lowest-scoring games of the year have come in Weeks 11-13. Prior to that three-week stretch, Kyler hadn’t had a game with under 24.1 fantasy points all season. With an impending matchup against a bad Giants’ team, this is the best ‘buy-low’ spot for Kyler Murray since Week 1. The Cardinals’ QB leads all QBs in rushing yards and has averaged an absurd 26.7 DraftKings as a favorite in his career. With the guaranteed floor of his rushing and his proven upside as a favorite, Kyler Murray is arguably the top QB play of Week 14.
Jalen Reagor – $4400
Reagor has ascended to the level of a full-time starting WR, playing as much as any Eagles’ pass-catcher over the last month. While his single target against Green Bay may be cause for concern, he saw the team’s second-highest target share (17%) in the prior three weeks. When combined with his 13.8 ADoT, a blowup performance for the Desean Jackson clone known as Jalen Reagor is right around the corner. QB play is still a concern for Philly, but regardless of who starts their Week 14 game against New Orleans, the Eagles are going to have to throw the ball to stay in playoff contention. Reagor is right there with the likes of Mike Williams, Henry Ruggs, and Jerry Jeudy as the highest-upside WR for under $5,000, with the added benefit of minuscule ownership.