(Finding An) NBA Edge - Week 2

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I’m back.

Yup – NBA.

Yup – me.

Again.

I’m writing this in the car (not while driving! – I mean…we’re driving, but I’m in the passenger seat), on my way to Nashville to hang out with the guys from RotoGrinders. We’ll be making a grand old time of this weekend, but weekends are always better when you start out making money, don’t you think?

So let’s make some money.

This week’s article is going to steer much closer to what will likely be our “normal approach” in this article, as I’ll break down my lineups from the previous week in order to explore my thoughts and decisions`. I feel that this is, organically, the best way to convey what I am learning each week in NBA, and is the best way to ensure this article provides you with an idea (or, at least, with one perspective) on how you should be thinking as you approach each NBA slate.

There are a couple quick things I want to talk about before we get into last week’s rosters, though.

1) After last week’s article, a lot of people asked how to look at the lineups of top NBA DFSers.

I’m not sure that there is an easy way to do this on FanDuel. Someone can correct me in the comments section if I’m wrong, but I believe that on FanDuel the only way to look at ownership percentage is to go page by page and see who you can find.

On DraftKings, however, the desktop site has a search function to search for any DFS player you want to find in any given contest. Of course, the catch is that DraftKings shows only the top 500 entries (along with your own entries and whichever lineup is currently just inside the cash line), but in NBA, there’s an easy solution.

On the home page of the desktop site, there is a tab in the top right corner labeled “Live.” By clicking this, you can bring up all the major live contests. This includes the $1060 and $300 tourneys, and it includes all the Giant Double-Ups. The $10, $25, and $50 double-ups are small enough fields that you can usually find most of the guys you want to find in the top 500 (in my opinion, NBA is the best sport in which to really rake in money through cash games, so studying the cash lineups of top players – especially considering most of these guys only roll one lineup out there in cash – is a great way to pick up some quick knowledge each day). And by looking at the teams used by the top players in the $1060 and the $300 tourney, you can see what they are doing when putting in a limited number of entries.

Editor’s Note: RotoGrinders posts Daily Tournament Links for FanDuel and DraftKings tournaments in the forums.

2) The “multi-entry myth…”

I don’t want to get into a whole thing here, but I do want to take a moment to touch on the prevalent misconception that “all it takes to make money in DFS is enough money to buy a bunch of entries.” You see, here’s the thing: If this were true, anyone could do this. They could get started in the twenty-five cent tourneys; once they were making enough money in these, they could move up to the $1 tourney and buy a bunch of entries in there each day. Then the $2; then the $3; then the $5; and so on. But in reality, making profit off a “mass multi-entry approach” is just as difficult as making profit off a limited-entry approach.

Again: this isn’t the time or place to get into a whole thing about this, and if you disagree with me, I certainly don’t have enough space here to try to convince you otherwise. But most of you who are reading this are probably familiar already with my writing – and if you are, you know that I am a single-entry player. There were some weekends in NFL when I put in two or three entries. Every once in a while (like…seven or eight times a year, across all sports), I’ll take some extra shots (10 or 12 entries) in a massive tourney if I’m feeling up for it (though I still play these like a single-entry guy – building my 10 or 12 teams around a very narrow core of players). But for the most part, I am a one-lineup-per-day guy.

If you don’t think it’s possible to compete at a high level with this approach, I encourage you to check out my profile on RotoGrinders. You’ll see that I am ranked at the high end of MLB, NFL, and overall rankings, even though the RotoGrinders rankings account for only a player’s “top finish in a tournament” (in other words: If I have one entry in a tournament and someone else has 100 entries, our ranking is still based only off our highest-finishing entry…which means they have 99 more opportunities than I have to contribute a high finish to their RG rankings).

I don’t bring that up to brag on myself (heck – check out my NBA ranking to see just how far I have to go before I can “brag”!!), but instead I bring it up to reinforce the idea that “buying up lots of entries” isn’t necessarily an advantage, from a “profitability” standpoint. Sure, someone who buys 100 entries has a better chance of finishing in first place, but over time, a limited-entry approach can be just as profitable (I would even say more profitable) than a multi-entry approach. After all: it’s still easy to lose money with a multi-entry approach; that money is just lost a lot more quickly!

Again: I assume most of you who are reading this already know that I am known to play with a limited number of entries, and I also assume most of you are non-combative on this issue, and are simply looking to learn. But to those of you who do think multi-entries is a big advantage, I encourage you to start doing multi-entry play yourself! Start at the low buy-in levels and work your way up; hone your skills with this approach, and become the next person who is dominating in that way.

You can make money with either approach. You can also lose money with either approach. The key is not “which approach you take”; the key is how well you are handling that approach.

Crap! This would be a good place to transition with, “So, how well have I been handling my NBA approach? Let’s take a look.” Then we could dive into our exploration of this last week’s teams. See how smooth that would be? But I also wanted to mention this:

I’m currently working on a new RotoAcademy course called “The Single-Entry Secret: Debunking the Multi-Entry Myth” (or something like that). I’m going to be exploring the ins and outs of my single-entry approach, as well as talking about why I prefer this approach for myself, and digging into the ways in which you can hone and wield this approach yourself.

There are only so many times I can mention my Transitioning from NFL to NBA course in these articles, after all! (In case you’re wondering: I honestly don’t make a whole lot off the sale of each course. I’m pushing that course so frequently in this article because it is genuinely helpful, as I use that course to explore the mistakes I made when making this transition myself, in order to prevent other “newer” NBA players from making those same mistakes. When I wrote my first NBA article back in November, I even gave away about 40 copies of that course, as I offered to give it away to anyone who “absolutely could not afford” the $9.95 the course costs. I was surprised, of course, that so many people “absolutely could not afford” ten bucks, but I was just as pumped about sending out those free copies as I am about any sales of the course! I can’t really offer that course for free again, as I don’t have the authority to keep doing that. But seriously: I don’t push that course in this article for me; I push it for you, because I really do think that’s a course that any individual who is “new” or “newer” to NBA should read. /EndRabbitTrail)

Now that I’ve screwed up my transition, let’s take a look at this last week’s teams.

How did I do?

After bubbling in four straight slates leading up to last week’s article, I turned things around this week with three positive days in four days of play. I made some great calls; I made some big mistakes. Most importantly, I learned a lot.

Let’s take a look.

Friday 1/22/16

Score: 292.00

Result: Cashed in double-ups and tourneys

Team:

46.50 Chris Paul – $9800
53.75 James Harden – $10,000
23.00 Justise Winslow – $4000
25.75 Clint Capela – $5600
28.25 Kelly Olynyk – $5000
35.25 Khris Middleton – $7000
33.00 Terrence Jones – $4700
46.50 Myles Turner – $3900

The most difficult part about this night was that I was in the middle of a rough run, having bubbled cash games in four consecutive slates. Otherwise, things were pretty straightforward for me.

Chris Paul remained a great value with Blake Griffin out, in what was expected to be a competitive game at the Knicks. Dwight Howard was out for the Rockets, which was going to lead to increased usage for James Harden and increased minutes/usage for Terrence Jones and Clint Capela. Amir Johnson was out for the Celtics, and Olynyk was sliding into the starting lineup. Khris Middleton is almost always a no-brainer for me, as we can get a shooting guard who racks up stats like a mix of point guard and power forward, and he is almost always priced lower than he should be. And while I never love using Justise Winslow – as he’s not super involved in the offense – he was starting and was only $4k, giving me a cheap option at small forward that allowed me to do everything else I wanted to do.

The one call that really stands out to me from this slate was my Myles Turner call. He was just over 30% owned on this night, but he should have been much higher-owned with Ian Mahinmi out. The reason he wasn’t? Because he was not starting.

It’s important to pay attention to situations such as this one – where the guy who is “not starting” is still the guy who benefits from a particular player being out. Wednesday night was another good example of this, with Dwight Powell taking on more value with Dirk out, even though Charlie Villanueva was the starter.

Saturday 1/23/16

Score: 323.25

Result: Cashed in double-ups and made good money off my investment in tourneys

Team:

22.25 Norris Cole – $4600
37.75 Khris Middleton – $7300
31.00 P.J. Tucker – $5000
68.75 DeMarcus Cousins – $10,700
60.75 Tyson Chandler – $4200
48.50 Rajon Rondo – $8400
23.75 Julius Randle – $5600
30.50 Myles Turner – $4100

Norris Cole was a solid value play with Eric Gordon out, you already know how I feel about Middleton, Cousins was 78% owned (no need to dig in there!), everyone jumped aboard the Myles Turner train after his big game the night before (72% owned in cash), and I always like Julius Randle when I can bank on minutes.

It’s the other three I want to talk about, though.

In spite of the heavy injuries to the Suns, P.J. Tucker was only 1.9% owned. He played 39 minutes and took 13 shots. I like Tucker as a fill-in small forward when he’s seeing minutes, because he gets more assists and rebounds than most other $5k small forwards could hope to get, but I felt he was a great value with the injuries to the Suns, and I was surprised more didn’t jump on board.

The same goes for Tyson Chandler, who had played 36 minutes a couple nights earlier. The Suns were playing the Hawks in this one, who are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA…and rebounds is where Tyson Chandler thrives. He was 4.1% owned in cash games that day, and the 60+ points he dropped for my team (in 44 minutes on the court!) made it a very easy day in cash. With all the injuries in the Suns frontcourt that day, Chandler was guaranteed heavy minutes, and with the matchup, he was guaranteed lots of rebounding opportunities. I was proud of having made this call…but I was only “proud” of it because the ownership was so low. Going into the night, I thought it was pretty obvious – which really highlights, in my mind, the edge that can be gained when you think for yourself and build teams based on your research rather than based on “what others will be doing.” I didn’t make that play in an effort to be contrarian – but the fact that it was contrarian ended up being a nice bonus on the night.

Lastly, I used Rondo over Kemba Walker (at pretty much the same price) because Kemba relies so much more heavily on shooting for his fantasy points. In theory, this means a cold night from the floor can really sink his value. Of course…he only hit seven shots on this day, and still shot the ball 25 times. I guess when you reach “Westbrook without Durant” territory and are going to chuck up tons of shots no matter how you’re doing, you can still be a pretty safe play.

Monday 1/25/16

Score: 257.25

Result: Fell back to Earth: no cashing in tourneys, and way outside the money in cash games

Team:

10.00 Beno Udrih – $4000
66.75 James Harden – $10,100
18.75 Jae Crowder – $6400
13.50 Josh Smith – $4000
32.25 Spencer Hawes – $4100
50.50 Kemba Walker – $8600
42.75 Paul Millsap – $8300
22.75 Willie Cauley-Stein – $4500

I try to make my own decisions, and to not think about (or even know) what others are saying. This is important to me in NBA, in particular, as I am working so hard to learn the sport for myself so it becomes a sustainable source of profit. Because I am so confident in my knowledge and understanding of MLB and NFL, I can read articles and listen to the thoughts of others in order to challenge my thinking or gain a new perspective – and I’m always looking to gain new knowledge as I read or listen to others, in order to be able to apply this knowledge in later slates.

So, for example: If I felt as confident in NBA as feel in NFL, I could have spotted Tyson Chandler the day he scored 60 fantasy points, and I could have then read other writers and seen that no one was mentioning him that day…and I could have said, “Wow, he’s going to be a great play tonight – no one else is on him!” Given the current place where I am in NBA with my study/learning/growth/development, however, if I had seen that no one else was talking about Tyson that day, I would have said, “No one else is even considering him – he must be a dumb play.” This is why, at present, I am trying to avoid the slate-specific thoughts of others in NBA, because I do not yet have the confidence to stick to my guns when I am going a different direction than others.

That came back to hurt me on this slate, however.

Trevor Ariza had slid into the power forward spot for the Rockets as they rolled out small ball lineups in the absence of Dwight Howard. He’d had a solid showing in his previous game, and – perhaps most importantly of all, in my mind – he provided the opportunity to use the small forward slot for a power forward (which we always love to do). As I continued to consider Ariza, however, I started to think, “Maybe this is a fish play. Maybe I’ll feel dumb for doing this.” I had the money to use Jae Crowder instead (in a great matchup against Washington), and I figured Crowder and Ariza had the same ceiling, while Crowder had a higher floor.

Of course, it was just poor fortune that Crowder dropped his worst game in over a month with 18 fantasy points. But it was also true that Ariza was a better point-per-dollar play on paper, and the only reason I moved away from him was out of fear that it would be a “fish play,” and I would be the only person with him on my roster. If I had read the thoughts of anyone else that day, I would have realized that Ariza was actually a chalk play that night – and when Ariza dropped 52 points, I would have had those points (and cashed easily) instead of taking an 18 from Crowder.

The lesson I learned? – Trust my research! If I’m going to avoid the thoughts of others at this stage in my learning process, I need to trust my research, rather than saying, essentially, “I think this guy is the best play, but I’m going to fade him because I don’t want to look dumb if I’m wrong.”

Trust. Your. Research!

Wednesday 1/27/16

Score: 247.75

Result: Cashed in double-ups; fell short in tourneys

Team:

37.50 Chris Paul – $9700
24.00 Archie Goodwin – $4800
41.50 Jerami Grant – $4400
38.25 Nerlens Noel – $6400
39.75 DeAndre Jordan – $7100
10.50 Nik Stauskas – $3500
8.50 David West – $4300
47.75 Kevin Durant – $9800

On the one hand, pricing was very tight on this day. On the other hand, this was still a very sloppy effort from me, and I was fortunate to cash.

Mistake 1: I never feel good about using Stauskas, as he’s far too inconsistent for my liking – especially in cash. Rather than moving things around to make things work, however, I forced him into being a value play.

Mistake 2: The news that David West was not starting for Tim Duncan (and that the Spurs were instead rolling a small starting lineup) did not come out until about one minute before Spurs players locked. With that said, West was not a strong play to begin with, as he certainly was capable of hitting value, but he didn’t have the “7x or higher” upside you really want from your value plays.

Mistake 3: I did the same thing with Zach Lavine I had done a few nights earlier with Ariza. My research led me to like him (duh). But I shied away because I wasn’t sure if I would be the only one using him and would feel dumb as a result.

(Trust. Your. Research!)

Mistake 4: I actually liked Karl-Anthony Towns more than DeAndre Jordan, as KAT was facing a worn out Thunder team (five games in seven days, with lots of travel, and coming off a grueling game in New York the night before), but I knew that everyone would be on DeAndre against the Hawks, while KAT would be low-owned – meaning that if DeAndre went off and I was wrong on KAT, I would be in trouble in cash. But, again: Trust your research – right? KAT topped 50 points and would have provided a nice edge.

Mistake 5: I saw this as a slate in which there were really very few value plays. As such, it was a slate on which taking a lot more mid-priced guys would actually make sense. My original “final team” went down from Durant to Paul Millsap and went up from David West to Avery Bradley (whom I really liked a lot on that slate, against a Denver team that does a poor job defending the perimeter). But I knew KD and Westbrook would be highly-owned, and I wanted at least one of them on my team. Once again: I played the guessing and ownership game, rather than simply putting together what I felt was the best roster I could build. That other team scored 277.75 (a full 30 points over what I scored), and would have made for a really nice night in tourneys.

Thankfully, I did trust myself enough to stick with Jerami Grant (I love his game, and with the injuries in the 76ers frontcourt, he was playing power forward – giving us an opportunity to roster a cheap, high-minutes, high-upside power forward in the small forward slot), and his 41.50 points at 4% ownership saved my night.

And along the way, I was able to once more be reminded:

Trust. Your. Research!

Which brings us to the end of this article, and gives me one more opportunity to remind you: check out the Transitioning from NFL to NBA course if you feel there are things you are missing in your NBA approach. It truly is an extremely important foundational piece as you strive to grow as an NBA DFSer.

And finally: I’ll be on GrindersLive on Wednesday with the second installment of our “Game Theory” show. Additionally, I’ll be writing a strategy-specific article on Tuesday, in which I’ll dig into some of the things we’ll be discussing the next day. If you are looking for ways to grow as a DFS player overall (I know I always am!), check those out on Tuesday and Wednesday.

And, of course, I’ll see you back here next Friday – and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards throughout the week.

About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.