How Injuries to Fitzpatrick, Mostert, Jeudy Impact NFL Week 2 Lines & DFS Plays
NFL Week 2 lines and DFS pricing are out across our favorite sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites. It’s only Tuesday but injury news regarding Ryan Fitzpatrick, Raheem Mostert, and Jerry Jeudy are already impacting things across the industry. Andy Means breaks down what the injuries mean in terms of betting and lineup building.
NFL Week 2 Injuries
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (Fitzpatrick, OUT)
Lookahead Line: WFT -3
Monday AM: WFT -4.5
Tuesday AM: WFT -3
FitzMagic suffered a hip injury in the second quarter against the Chargers and is out for the foreseeable future.
Taylor Heinicke stepped in Sunday and performed admirably against the Chargers, going 11 for 15 for 122 yards, 1 TD, and no interceptions. All in a losing effort, however, as the Chargers eked out a 20-16 win.
Sportsbooks wasted no time releasing a line for Thursday night’s game against the Giants, opening up with the Football Team at -3. No FitzMagic? No problem, according to early money. The line on Monday quickly stretched to -4.5 at some sportsbooks.
I presumed the early steam on the Football Team for Thursday had more to do with the Giants than Washington. With the questionable health of Saquon Barkley, not to mention the massive edge the Broncos had in the trenches due to their pass rush and weak NYG offensive line, the Giants predictably got smoked on Sunday by Denver, 27-13. A meaningless score in the final seconds by Daniel Jones made the score look closer than it actually was.
However, following official news that Fitzpatrick would be placed on the IR, Washington has shortened to -3.5 at FanDuel and -3 at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet, and Caesars as of Tuesday morning.
My initial thought for Thursday’s game is to say “grab WFT -3 where you still can.”
I can’t imagine the Giants have much better luck against Washington, a team that few would argue has an even better pass rush than Denver. Heinicke needs to be the epitome of a game manager on Thursday night, as I’m guessing his defense will be able to get him some great field position for a couple of drives by causing Danny Dimes to cough it up a few times.
Perhaps the more interesting number here might be the total (Open 42.5, Current 40.5). That is certainly going to be one of the lower totals you see in the NFL this season, but it’s hard to see either team having much success moving the ball.
San Francisco 49ers (Mostert, OUT) at Philadelphia Eagles
Lookahead Line: SF -4.5
Tuesday AM: SF -3.5
We got all sorts of running back news yesterday from the 49ers. The first was when it was announced that Trey Sermon was ruled inactive before the game, even though darn near everyone had him as the RB2 behind Mostert in the preseason. However, Shanahan revealed after the game that Sermon simply got beat out in camp by Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty.
Fast forward to the actual game yesterday against the Lions, and Mostert got four snaps and two carries under his belt before it was announced he was questionable to return with a knee injury. The writing was pretty much on the wall at that point, as he was quickly ruled out for the remainder of the game.
Mitchell got the brunt of the work in Mostert’s absence, racking up 35 snaps (to Hasty’s 16) while going for 19 rushes, 104 yards, and 1 TD. Hasty actually found paydirt on his one single rushing attempt, a three-yard score toward the end of the second quarter. Neither were really involved in the passing game though, with Hasty receiving just one target (which he converted into 15 yards) and Mitchell receiving no targets.
This feels like deja vu, trying to make sense of a San Francisco backfield. Didn’t we have to do this, like, every single week last year? Geeeez. With Mostert officially OUT, the backfield picture is less cloudy than it would be if he were active in Week 2, which sees the Niners traveling to Philadelphia to take on an Eagles team that just went to Atlanta and absolutely walloped the Falcons, 32-6.
This betting line was around SF -4.5 around kickoff yesterday, and it has already moved down to -3.5 at most books. And the total is very much on the move up. That was sitting at 45.5 around kickoff yesterday, and it is already up at most books to 48.5! Apparently a lot of people weren’t very impressed with the supposed vaunted Niners defense giving up 33 points to Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions.
Was that a sign that the San Francisco defense isn’t nearly as good as everyone thinks? Or did they just take their foot off the gas with such a big lead? Facing Jalen Hurts and the Eagles on Sunday, I think we are about to find out.
Denver Broncos (Jeudy, OUT) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Lookahead Line: DEN -3
Tuesday AM: DEN -6
Jeudy was carted off the field in the third quarter yesterday after his leg got rolled up on after getting tackled. Luckily for him the X-rays were negative, but one has to imagine this causes him to miss several games. High ankle sprains take much longer to heal compared to low ankle sprains, and it would be borderline impossible to create separation as a wide receiver if you are even the slightest bit hobbled.
So who gets the bump here assuming Jeudy is out? I’m guessing everyone’s initial instinct is to immediately think it’s Courtland Sutton. And while I certainly wouldn’t talk anyone out of that, take a look at some numbers from Denver’s Week 1 win over the Giants…
Courtland Sutton: 53 snaps, 1 reception (on 3 targets), 14 yards
Tim Patrick: 46 snaps, 4 receptions (on 4 targets), 39 yards, 1 TD
So yeah, don’t sleep on Patrick either.
Looking ahead to some Week 2 pricing on DraftKings, Sutton is $5,200 and Patrick is $4,600. And Bridgewater’s favorite target yesterday—Noah Fant—is just $4,200. Fant converted his 8 targets into 6 receptions for 62 yards.
And up next for Denver? A Jaguars defense that just allowed a Deshaun-Watsonless Texans team to put up 37 points on them! Tyrod Taylor went 21 for 33 for 291 yards and 2 TDs. Brandin Cooks racked up 132 receiving yards on just 5 receptions. Heck, even Danny Amendola scored a touchdown!
Someone (or someones) is likely to get loose on this Broncos offense in Week 2, and basically all of them are really cheap. Even Teddy Two Gloves is just $5,400. Did I really just consider a Broncos double-stack that isn’t Peyton Manning, Eric Decker, and Demaryius Thomas?? Yikes, thank goodness we are six days away from the Week 2 slate starting.
Image Credit: Imagn