MLB Best Bets Today: Prediction & Picks for Opening Day 2024
Major League Baseball is BACK! Today’s Opening Day slate features 13 games, even after a pair of weather-related postponements. As a result, there are plenty of betting options on the board, including pitcher props and hitter props, in addition to the more traditional markets of sides and totals.
Below, we take a look at MLB best bets for today — Thursday, March 28, 2024!
MLB Best Bets Today — Thursday, March 28
Opening Day means plenty of high-quality starting pitchers on the bump. Corbin Burnes will be making his Baltimore debut, with Tarik Skubal, Pablo Lopez, Cole Ragans, Framber Valdez, Logan Webb, and Tyler Glasnow being just a few of the other notable starting pitchers to be toeing the rubber on Thursday. Let’s take a look at a few of our favorite ways to approach today’s action!
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-135), O/U 7.5
The public perception of Jose Berrios is poor, but that’s mostly due to the fact that he was over-hyped as a prospect and has never fully delivered on his perceived potential. The reality is that he’s still a very effective Major League pitcher, especially against right-handed batters (RHB). Last year was more of the same from Berrios, who posted a strong 3.51 FIP and 1.04 WHIP against RHB. This afternoon, the Rays have 7 RHB in the lineup, which bodes well for Berrios’ chances of keeping the damage done against him to a minimum.
On the other side of this matchup, we have Zach Eflin, who is likely the best pitcher who most people pay little attention to. Eflin was undoubtedly one of the most effective pitchers in all of baseball in 2023, pounding the strike zone, inducing plenty of weak contact, and throwing 177.2 innings for an injury-plagued Rays starting rotation. Eflin’s breakout season was driven primarily by an increased reliance on his secondary offerings. He threw more curveballs, cutters, and changeups against LHB while nearly erasing his 4-seam fastball usage. Against RHB, he threw a lot more cutters and curveballs, in addition to introducing a newly developed sweeper to replace his old slider. The changes led to more strikeouts, more ground balls, and fewer walks. His ability to get quick outs allowed him to throw a career-high number of innings, as he averaged only 3.67 pitches/batter faced — 5th-best in all of baseball. Among 127 starting pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in 2023, Eflin was one of only four players to have greater than a 25.0 K%, greater than a 45.0% ground ball rate, and throw more than 65.0% first-pitch strikes. This skill set is an extremely high-floor/high-ceiling approach to pitching.
Simply, both of these starting pitchers are positioned well in today’s matchup, playing in a pitcher-friendly venue with good defenses behind them and facing rather underwhelming lineups. The under makes sense in this spot.
- MLB PICK: Under 7.5 (-110), BetMGM
Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland Athletics (+130), O/U 7.5
Last season, “(player-popup #shane-bieber)Shane Bieber”:/players/shane-bieber-351838’s average fastball velocity was down 2.8 mph from its peak in 2020 when he finished the year with a 1.63 ERA and 41.1 K%. Though declining fastball velocity often comes with regression in performance, it’s notable that Bieber’s regression has been extremely linear. Bieber’s numbers relative to his fastball velocity are particularly noteworthy, considering the fact that he averaged 93.2 mph during a live at-bat session at Driveline in early February. In the single session alone, Bieber recorded 10 fastballs at 93+ mph, surpassing his full-season total from 2023, when he had only 8 fastballs meet or exceed that threshold. Heading into 2024, Bieber’s velocity is the best that it’s been in years, and the run prevention metrics should positively regress as a result.
Cleveland’s offense doesn’t have as optimistic of an outlook on Opening Day. Last year, the Guardians’ offense ranked 30th in OPS and 29th in ISO against left-handed pitching (LHP). Though Alex Wood isn’t the most formidable starting pitcher in the league, he should be able to do enough to keep Cleveland’s bats relatively quiet on Thursday evening.
- MLB PICK: Under 7.5 (-115), BetMGM
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-215), O/U 8.5
If there is one game that the Rockies are going to win in 2024, it’s this one. It’s a well-documented fact that it’s extremely difficult for hitters to adjust to normal levels of elevation after playing home games at Coors Field. Yet, Colorado doesn’t have to deal with that phenomenon in this matchup, given that it’s the first regular season game of the new campaign. Kyle Freeland has talked at length about how much healthier his arm feels heading into 2024, and his comments were supported by significantly increased velocity during Spring Training. At nearly 2:1 odds, Colorado is a worthwhile stab here against a weak-hitting Arizona lineup.
- MLB PICK: Colorado Rockies Moneyline (+185), Bet365
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