MLB Daily Grind Down: Friday June 14th Part 2

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-06-14 19:29:49

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St. Louis vs. Miami

7:10 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.275	0.742	17.90%	0.61		0.226	0.605	18.70%	0.40
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.289	0.765	18.40%	0.49		0.233	0.604	17.50%	0.29
SP STATS	Westbrook – RHP					Fernandez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.46	1.62	4.38	9.83		1.15	3.17	9.26	10.09
LAST 14 DAYS						0.77	0.69	10.38	15.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs R		STL BvP			MIA vs R		MIA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
• Favored Team – STL -145

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Jose Fernandez is a frustrating pitcher because he pitches well, so that makes you question the opposing team’s hitters. However, he plays for a very poor team so a win is unlikely. Jose is also yet to throw over 100 pitches which limits his upside. He has made the most of his time but you cannot take him today versus this potent STL offense, but I think he will slow them down. STL is batting .270 on the road, .289 versus right-handers, and .317 over the last 7 days. They rank 4th in runs scored and have recorded the 8th fewest Ks. Avoid

• Away Do not fall for the Jake Westbrook trap tonight. Yes, the Marlins are the worst team in baseball and Westbrook’s 1.62 ERA is great on the season but he has not pitched in a month and will likely be held to under 80 pitches in his first start back. Plus, his 1.46 WHIP on the year is below average and his K/9 of 4.39 is too low to play. MIA is batting .234 at home, .233 versus right-handers, and .245 over the last 7 days. The rank 30th in runs scored and have recorded the 5th fewest Ks. Avoid

Batter Grind Down

• Home If you think that Westbrook could have some rust than MIA might offer some value tonight if you are willing to gamble. The problem is their starters are all overpriced for their production and you can always find better/cheaper options so why even bother with them?

• Away Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Carlos Beltran and David Freese all have .300 batting averages versus right-handers. Actually, Freese is batting .297 but that is close enough. Matt Holliday and Allen Craig have been hot producing over 20 fp in the last week. This STL offense is so reliable that everyone is playable everyday.

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Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati

7:10 PM	Milwaukee – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.258	0.719	19.50%	0.56		0.253	0.733	20.00%	0.60
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.249	0.698	18.60%	0.41		0.250	0.726	20.10%	0.48
SP STATS	Lohse – RHP					Arroyo – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.24	4.03	5.66	7.85		1.11	3.35	5.02	9.69
LAST 14 DAYS	1.15	4.82	4.45	7.07		0.79	1.29	4.50	11.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIL vs R		MIL BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5
• Favored Team – CIN -142

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home The Bronson Arroyo dream machine keeps own rolling. His last start was versus STL and he held them to 2 ER in 6 IP. He has been fantastic at home so far this year with a 2.68 ERA and his 3.35 ERA and 1.10 are the best he has seen in years. Here is why I am not buying into him: He has given up 8 HRs in 10 starts and has more fly ball outs than ground ball outs.

Arroyo is challenging hitters and winning right now but that luck could quickly turn the other way. Plus, he has only thrown over 90 pitches in 5 out of 10 of his starts. That plus his poor K/9 cap his upside. MIL is batting .255 on the road, .253 versus right-handers, and .288 over the last 7 days. They rank 17th in runs scored and have recorded the 11th fewest Ks. You can play him in a multiple pitcher format but I think you are playing with fire if you think that he will keep up his pace for a career year at 34. Avoid

• Away It used to be that you played Kyle Lohse at home and avoided him on the road. That was in STL. He has been bad for fantasy this year no matter where he has pitched. I do not see things getting any better for him today versus this tough home team. CIN is batting .262 at home, .253 versus right-handers, and .262 over the last 7 days. Avoid

Batter Grind Down

• Home Jay Bruce is 8-24 with 1 HR versus Lohse. Joey Votto is 6-19 versus him as well. Jay Bruce Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo have all been hot over the last week. Both Choo and Votto are batting over .300 versus right-handers. Choo is also batting .330 at home.

• Away Carlos Gomez has been red hot with 39.25 fp over the last week. Jean Segura has 33.75 fp also. Segura, Gomez, and Aramis Ramirez are all batting over .300 versus right-handed pitching.

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San Francisco vs. Atlanta

7:30 PM	San Francisco – ROAD					Atlanta – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.267	0.720	16.20%	0.57		0.246	0.738	23.90%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.266	0.731	16.10%	0.46		0.231	0.703	21.90%	0.47
SP STATS	Bumgarner – LHP					Medlen – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.06	3.58	8.57	11.46		1.29	2.87	6.91	9.62
LAST 14 DAYS	1.18	6.55	8.18	8.50		0.99	0.00	8.18	16.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SFG vs R		SFG BvP			ATL vs L		ATL BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7
• Favored Team – ATL -140

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Kris Medlen has put together 2 great starts in a row. He has been fantastic at home with a 2.31 ERA and certainly gets his share of Ks. SFO got to him earlier this year for 5 runs off of 3 HRs but that was in SFO (although they have been hot lately). SFO is batting .268 on the road, .267 versus right-handers and .333 over the last 7 days. They rank 15th in runs scored and have recorded the least amount of Ks. In Play

• Away Despite his 4.30 road ERA, you have to think that Madison Bumgarner is the more desirable of the two plays here because of ATL high K percentage. Madison could get the loss and he could still record more points than Medlen. He has run into a bad stretch of games but his WHIP has remained low at 1.04 even though his ERA is on the rise and he has not been surrendering the long ball so some of that can be attributed to bad luck. ATL is batting .251 at home, .230 versus left-handers, and .238 over the last 7 days. The rank 13th in runs scored and have recorded the 2nd most Ks. In Play

Batter Grind Down

• Home Justin Upton is 9-17 with 1 HR versus Bumgarner. Chris Johnson, Evan Gattis and Freddie Freeman are all batting over .300 versus lefties. Dan Uggla is hot producing 27.75 fp over the last week.

• Away SFG owns a .342 BAA versus Medlen so almost everyone has positive BvPs. Hunter Pence has been hot producing 34.75 fp over the last week. Gregor Blanco and Buster Posey also have produced over 20 fp in the last week.

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Toronto vs. Texas

8:05 PM	Toronto – ROAD					Texas – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.251	0.727	19.20%	0.60		0.265	0.759	17.80%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.747	20.00%	0.50		0.253	0.727	18.10%	0.44
SP STATS	Buehrle – LHP					Grimm – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.38	5.06	5.74	7.23		1.57	5.25	7.65	8.73
LAST 14 DAYS	1.31	2.77	3.46	7.00		1.99	9.45	6.87	4.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TOR vs R		TOR BvP			TEX vs L		TEX BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 10
• Favored Team – TEX -129

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Justin Grimm just got hit hard by this TOR team but that was in TOR. Grimm has been a 7.01 pitcher on the road and a 2.84 pitcher at home. He is just shy of a K per inning average on the year but it is hard to trust him today with such a high OU despite what the numbers may say. TOR is batting .240 on the road, .252 versus right-handers, .241 over the last 7 days. They rank 13th in runs scored and have recorded the 14th fewest Ks. Avoid

• Away Mark Buehrle just held this TEX team to 1 ER in 7 IP. That is not suprising because Buehrle is capable of good starts. His 5.06 ERA also show that he is capable of bad ones. He 5.74 K/9 is very low and I do not think the 34 year old is worth the gamble on the road versus this tough TEX team no matter how well he just pitched. TEX is batting .277 at home, .255 versus left-handers, and .222 over the last 7 days. They rank 11th in runs scored and have record the 6th fewest Ks. Avoid

Batter Grind Down

• Home Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, and Jeff Baker are the players you want to target today. Baker is 6-14 with 1 HR versus Buerhle. Beltre is 10-30 with 1 HR. A.J. Pierzynski is 8-20 versus him as well. Nelson Cruz has 2 HR in the last 7 days.

• Away Adam Lind took Grimm deep last time he pitched. Lind, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion are all hot. Melky Cabrera and Adam Lind or both batting over .300 versus right-handed pitching.

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Chicago White Sox vs. Houston

8:10 PM	Chicago White Sox – ROAD					Houston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.236	0.653	21.60%	0.48		0.246	0.702	25.60%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.240	0.655	20.90%	0.37		0.275	0.759	24.50%	0.47
SP STATS	Sale – LHP					Bedard – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.92	2.68	8.40	13.28		1.59	5.34	7.50	5.55
LAST 14 DAYS	0.92	3.38	7.56	9.55		1.52	5.40	3.21	6.10
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHW vs L		CHW BvP			HOU vs L		HOU BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
• Favored Team – CHW -180

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Eric Bedard has a 3.02 ERA at home and a 24 Ks in 20.1 IP. These stats have not come against week teams. He played OAK, TEX, DET and CLE. I still do not like the fact that he has yet to pitch a 100 pitches in a game and cannot suggest that you take a player that has a 5.34 ERA. CHW is batting .247 on the road, .238 versus left-handers, and .269 over the last 7 days. They rank 28th in runs scored and have recorded the 13th most Ks. Avoid

• Away I mention overlay every time a great pitcher plays HOU. You will have that same concern with Chris Sale tonight. Houston does hit lefties well but their Ks will more than makeup for any damaged. HOU is batting .239 at home, .274 versus left-handers, and .195 over the last 7 days. They rank 21st in runs scored and have recorded the most Ks in the league. Target

Batter Grind Down

• Home I might take a flyer on Brandon Barmes, Chris Corporan, and Jose Altuve tonight because all 3 players hit lefties well.

• Away De Aza, Viciedo, Alexi Ramirez, and Alex Rios are all batting over .300 versus left-handers. Adam Dunn has been hot producing 36.5 fp over the last 7 days. He has 4 HRs in that span.

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