Million Dollar Musings: Tuesday, August 15
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a big ol’ 13-game slate that is heavily tilted towards the hitting side. We start with some LOL pricing on DK pitching, and the choices are going to be between overpaying or saving salary and just hoping for the best. The offenses are strong up and down the board, but the Braves against the ghost of Luis Severino, along with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, look like the highlights.
We also have some weather concerns with the Pirates-Mets and Nationals-Red Sox games. This will be a significant factor to pay attention to in the afternoon weather report, with Nick Pivetta being a top pitching option on this slate. For now, I’m just assuming he’s good to go, but this will be an important night to monitor the weather and watch Crunch Time in order to get final word from Roth.
With that, let’s jump into this big slate and see what we can find in the way of MLB DFS picks, ideally some that are not $11,000 pitchers with 21% strikeout rates!
Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have a very sketchy-looking pitching slate, particularly when factoring in some excessive salaries on the DK side. I’ll sort into buckets based on that DK pricing, and then we’ll find a few differences on the FD side of things:
Priced Like Aces
Zack Wheeler at Blue Jays – 27.2% K, 4.4% BB, 3.74 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Jordan Montgomery vs. Angels – 21.3% K, 6.6% BB, 3.38 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
Bailey Ober vs. Tigers – 24.3% K, 4.3% BB, 3.40 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Lucas Giolito at Rangers – 25.1% K, 8.5% BB, 4.37 ERA, 4.18 SIERA
Mid-Tier-Ish Pricing
Bobby Miller vs. Brewers – 22.6% K, 7.2% BB, 3.89 ERA, 4.17 SIERA
Michael Wacha vs. Orioles – 21.3% K, 7.3% BB, 2.84 ERA, 4.53 SIERA
Bryce Elder vs. Yankees – 17.7% K, 7.7% BB, 3.64 ERA, 4.58 SIERA
Nick Pivetta at Nationals – 29.6% K, 9.4% BB, 4.16 ERA, 3.61 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Phillies – 24.6% K, 6.9% BB, 3.53 ERA, 3.99 SIERA
Jack Flaherty at Padres – 22.8% K, 10.9% BB, 4.33 ERA, 4.59 SIERA
No Man’s Land
Kyle Hendricks vs. White Sox – 16% K, 3.9% BB, 3.96 ERA, 4.61 SIERA
Alex Faedo at Twins – 21.5% K, 6.1% BB, 5.80 ERA, 4.36 SIERA
Zack Littell at Giants – 20.2% K, 3.4% BB, 4.10 ERA, 3.80 SIERA
The Cheap Stuff
Emerson Hancock at Royals – 2nd Career Start
Dakota Hudson vs. A’s – 16.1% K, 8% BB, 4.31 ERA, 4.70 SIERA
Sean Manaea vs. Rays – ?? – Maybe he pitches, maybe not!
I’m Sorry, Who Costs $11,000?
Zack Wheeler at Blue Jays – 27.2% K, 4.4% BB, 3.74 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Jordan Montgomery vs. Angels – 21.3% K, 6.6% BB, 3.38 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
Bailey Ober vs. Tigers – 24.3% K, 4.3% BB, 3.40 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Lucas Giolito at Rangers – 25.1% K, 8.5% BB, 4.37 ERA, 4.18 SIERA
Jordan Montgomery is a perfectly acceptable real-life pitcher, but that’s about it. There is no world in which it is OK for this guy to be priced at $11,000, and I’m just completely out on DK. FD has made things a bit more reasonable with a $9,800 price tag on Montgomery, but I am still not at all thrilled with a below-average strikeout pitcher at this salary. Things will change a bit if we end up losing Pivetta to the weather, but for now, Montgomery is just an MME pivot on FD.
If salary cap is no issue at all, I guess Zack Wheeler is the play. But really, he’s only a marginally better DFS pitcher on a regular basis than Montgomery. He absolutely has more potential upside and occasionally spikes a few strikeouts, but he’s only topped 8 strikeouts twice all season. He should be fine, and he could be good, and sure, I’ll call him the top raw points option. But compared to what we usually see at a crazy-high $11,600 on DK and $10,800 on FD, he is nowhere near a priority.
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