MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, July 7
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, July 7th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Huge 12-game slate to end the week, with the biggest news being the 2023 debut of Carlos Rodon. We also have some great pitching matchups in Castillo-Brown, Abbott-Burnes, Montgomery-Cease, and Verlander-Darvish.
Lots of lineup news and notes to talk about along with plenty of MLB DFS picks, so let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- TEX/WSH is looking at scattered storms around first pitch, so a delayed start is possible, but the game should play fine eventually. Temps in the low 80s.
- STL/CHW has a chance of rain late, but for now, it likely holds off until after the game finishes. Still some risk for SPs if that rain comes earlier than currently forecasted, so look for an update closer to lock. Temps in the low 70s to high 60s.
- CHC/NYY may have a few storms in the general area early on that fade around first pitch. Low chance for a late start or delay of any kind. Temps in the low 80s to high 70s.
- OAK/BOS is probably our best hitting weather today with temps in the 80s, 60-75% humidity, and 8-10mph wind out to left.
- KCR/CLE will be in the 70s with a slight breeze in. BAL/MIN will be in the 70s with a 9mph right to left breeze. NYM/SDP will be in the low 60s. LAA/LAD will be in the mid 60s with a 6-9mph breeze blowing out. COL/SFG will be in the 50s with its usually 20+ mph wind blowing out.
- Dome games today include SEA/HOU, CIN/MIL, and PIT/ARI.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Dansby Swanson is dealing with heel soreness, so the Cubs could be cautious with him until after the All-Star break. If Swanson remains out, look for Hoerner to be the regular SS, with Morel and Wisdom getting most of the 2B/3B starts.
- Jake Bauers is headed to the IL with a rotator cuff injury. This should give regular playing time to McKinney for another lefty in the lineup. Volpe hit leadoff yesterday, so if he starts there again today, it looks like a permanent change.
- The Nationals are making a lineup change and putting CJ Abrams at leadoff. Candelario is dealing with a knee injury and may get a game off.
- Esteury Ruiz is also dealing with a shoulder injury and is going on the IL.
- Boston will get Yu Chang back today as their starting shortstop. Yoshida is getting a day off.
- Jose Altuve went on the IL yesterday, so Dubon (and Hensley) will handle 2B until he returns.
- Aaron Hicks is dealing with achilles soreness and was late-scratched yesterday, and he remains out today. Rutschman is getting a day off so McCann will catch.
- Tommy Edman is going on the IL so Carlson should get most of the CF time. Donovan remains at DH as he deals with an arm injury.
- Corbin Carroll hurt his shoulder again on a swing yesterday, so he’ll almost certainly be out today and possibly through the All-Star break. Gurriel, McCarthy, Thomas, and Fletcher will handle the OF in his absence.
- Boston is my favorite stack today, hitting at home with a 6.5 projected run total currently against Oakland. Medina has allowed 12 walks and 4 ER over his last two starts, and Fenway will have one of the better hitting environments of the slate. The Rangers are my next favorite stack in hot weather against Trevor Williams. Cleveland rounds out my top three stacks at home against the low strikeout lefty Lynch. LAD have around a 5 run total currently, and are always in play as a GPP stack, but I’m not as high on them against Canning as I would be against a weaker SP.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Andrew Abbott ($10,600) is coming off the best start of his young career of 60 FP against the Padres, so against the Brewers, I think he has one of the highest ceilings of the slate. Milwaukee has the second-lowest team average (.223) against lefties this year along with the sixth-most strikeouts, so it really lines up as a perfect matchup for Abbott. He will be my cash game SP on FD. Gallen ($10,100) and Brown ($9,000) would be my next picks if you need the extra salary, while Civale ($8,800) and Taillon ($6,400) are other cheap SPs I like for GPPs.
- Rafael Devers ($3,700) is my top bat today and the first guy I’m locking in to cash games. Devers is still underpriced in my mind, as he’s usually a $4-4.5k hitter, and with three games of 22+ FP in his last five, in solid hitting weather against a below-average righty, his ceiling is too high to fade at his currently salary. Jarren Duran ($2,900) is my favorite value bat from BOS, and with Duvall ($2,900) hitting cleanup he’d be my next target from Boston.
- I want TEX exposure in my main build, and will do my best to fit in Corey Seager ($4,200). Nate Lowe ($3,000), Jonah Heim ($3,100), and Josh Jung ($3,400) are great value options for cheaper Rangers exposure, while Adolis Garcia ($3,900) is always a huge upside play if you have the extra salary and OF spot available.
- CLE remains a great source of value after Jose Ramirez ($3,800), who himself is a top play of the slate. Amed Rosario ($2,900) and Josh Bell ($2,600) are top values with the platoon advantage on Lynch, and if you don’t mind the L/L matchup, I’d still consider Josh Naylor ($3,300) and Andres Gimenez ($2,700). Overall CLE is a great GPP stack, with solid pieces to help fill a spot or two in your cash game lineup.
- More cheap bats to consider in cash games include Austin Slater ($2,600), Kyle Lewis ($2,100), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,000), Gunnar Henderson ($3,000), Shea Langeliers ($2,500), Stone Garrett ($2,500), Anthony Volpe ($2,900), and Gleyber Torres ($2,800).
- Andrew Abbott ($9,900) remains my favorite cash game SP on DK, and this is probably the last chance to use him for under $10k for a long time. There’s a bunch of solid SP2 options like Castillo, Brown, Burnes, and Cease, but I think the strikeout upside of Zac Gallen ($9,600) against the Pirates has me leaning towards paying up for him. If I were to spend down at SP2, then Aaron Civale ($7,700) would be my choice against KC, and if you want to really punt SP2 I don’t mind Taillon ($5,200).
- Jarren Duran ($3,500) is really standing out as a top value bat for cash games today, as he has multi-SB upside from the leadoff spot, and could be looking at 5-6 ABs if the Red Sox score as many runs as I think they will today. Rafael Devers ($4,900) also remains a cash game lock at this low of a salary, and I’ll go with at least one, if not both, Turner ($4,000) and Duvall ($4,700) in my main build.
- Rosario ($3,800) and Bell ($2,800) remain excellent salary savers from CLE, and if David Fry ($2,200) finds a spot in the lineup, I would definitely consider him for extreme value if he helps you complete your perfect lineup.
- If you need a couple of more extreme value bats in the OF, then Stone Garrett ($2,500) and Kyle Lewis ($2,300) are elite p/$ targets, both hitting at home with the platoon advantage. If Anthony Volpe ($3,500) remains in the leadoff spot, then he’ll be in play for value at SS. At catcher, I’m loving the price of Shea Langeliers ($2,800), while Jordan Diaz ($2,100) and Brent Rooker ($3,300) are a couple more values to consider from OAK.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!