Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (June 20)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Jordan Lyles was so close yesterday. Kansas City was up 4-1 heading into the 7th, but Detroit put up a 5-spot. Lyles is stuck at 0-11, and the Royals have lost all 15 of his starts.
Gerrit Cole’s Disappearing Strikeout Rate vs. Seattle’s Contact Struggles
Cole led the league in strikeouts last season and has been 92nd percentile or better in K% every full season since 2018. He’s tumbled to the 71st percentile in 2023, to go with a career-high 7.8% walk rate.
The slider has betrayed Cole this season, falling to a 27.2% whiff rate after posting at least a 39.9% mark in every season since 2019. The curveball is also down from a 36.9% whiff rate last year to 21.3% this season.
But hey, Lance Lynn and his 6.51 ERA just put up 16 strikeouts against this lineup. It’s an excellent matchup for Ks.
SUMMARY: Cole is clearly the chalk SP option, with the highest projected ownership on FanDuel and second-highest on DraftKings. I’m taking an underweight stance. He’s one of the safest options on the slate but the ceiling isn’t there, even against Seattle.
Nathan Eovaldi’s Ceiling vs. His Elevated Price
Eovaldi has been excellent all season, despite averaging slightly less than a strikeout per inning. The key is the upside. He’s had a handful of massive performances, specifically two complete games and a 12-strikeout, 8.2 IP gem.
The matchups for those outings? Yankees without Aaron Judge, Athletics and Pirates. Basically as good as it gets.
But the White Sox belong in that group right now. Chicago is 29th in wOBA and wRC+ against RHPs in June, to go with a 25.7% strikeout rate (5th-highest).
The question is the price tag. Eovaldi is the most expensive SP on both sites.
SUMMARY: Cole and Clayton Kershaw are getting all the pOWN. Give me Eovaldi for a couple extra bucks. He’s set up for another nuclear performance.
Brit Devine has been red-hot on moneyline picks (28-10 this season) and he’s on the Rangers today. I’m tailing him.
Lane Thomas Facing Lefties vs. Jordan Montgomery’s Handedness
Thomas has 5 HRs in 186 ABs vs. RHPs. He has 6 HRs in 90 ABs vs. LHPs. Yep, half the at-bats but more home runs. Thomas has always been a lefty killer (career .302 hitter against them) but he’s been on another level this season.
Montgomery has been fine, nothing special. His only crime, in this case, is being left-handed.
Thomas is projected for 7-8% ownership, which is reasonable.
SUMMARY: Washington is actually a slightly-above average offense against LHPs, but there’s not enough upside for a stack. Give me Thomas as a one-off in as many lineups as possible. Also on his HR prop at +680 on FanDuel.
Honorable mention to Jorge Soler, who also has bonkers numbers against lefties and faces Yusei Kikuchi today. Not on the main slate but his HR props are worth a look.