MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Optimizer Values for DraftKings (May 7th)
Taylor Smith previews the Tuesday, May 7th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got just 8 games on the main MLB DFS slate for Tuesday on DraftKings. Things seem fairly thin on the pitching front at first glance, while we’ve got Coors Field back in our lives after what feels like a long absence. It took me approximately 5 seconds to identify what the most popular lineup construction path will be tonight, so it looks like there is going to be some chalk we may have to pivot away from in GPPs.
Below is a bird’s-eye view of tonight’s solid 8-gamer.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- We’ve got a busy weather report this morning, though nothing as of now looks too threatening. SDP/CHC and SEA/MIN are both YELLOW/GREEN. Both games have a chance at a late start with rain in the area, but it doesn’t sound like there’s a serious threat of a PPD. The game at Wrigley also has winds blowing out to center at around 10 MPH, which is a nice bump to bats.
- BOS/ATL is GREEN/YELLOW with potential light rain hitting later in the game. It doesn’t sound very likely to be any sort of rain that would even cause a delay if it does arrive during the game.
The Coors Field game (SFG/COL) is a straight GREEN with winds blowing left to right across the field at up to 20 MPH.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Randy Vasquez is slated to start for the Padres at Wrigley Field in place of Joe Musgrove, who landed on the IL with an elbow injury. Vasquez started a couple of games last month for the Padres, and they did not go well. He’s cheap ($5,500), but the matchup against the Cubs with the wind blowing out ain’t an easy one.
- Jorge Soler is day-to-day for the Giants after missing yesterday’s game in Philly with a shoulder injury. His status for tonight is important with the Giants set to face Dakota Hudson and friends at Coors. We currently have Soler projected to sit and the Giants rolling with a starting outfield of Jung Hoo Lee, Michael Conforto, and Mike Yastrzemski. Blake Sabol is projected to do the catching with Patrick Bailey and Tom Murphy both on the injured list.
- Pete Alonso has 1 hit in his last 28 at-bats, so the Mets decided to give him a breather on Monday night in St. Louis. He’ll likely return to the cleanup spot tonight when the Mets face Miles Mikolas.
- It sounds like Cody Bellinger could be activated from the IL at some point during the Cubs’ current series against the Padres, but we still have Pete Crow-Armstrong projected to start in the outfield vs. Vasquez.
- Anthony Rizzo is due back in the Yankees’ lineup at home against the Astros after getting the day off on Sunday. He’s slated to bat 6th against Justin Verlander.
- The Marlins activated Jake Burger from the injured list ahead of last night’s game, which should be a major boost to an offense that desperately needs it. Burger started at third base and hit 3rd last night, and he’s projected to do the same again tonight against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in LA.
- Rob Refsnyder left Sunday’s game with hamstring tightness, and we don’t have him projected to start for the Red Sox tonight in Atlanta.
- Nolan Gorman should return to the Cardinals’ lineup tonight against Jose Butto after getting the night off yesterday against southpaw Sean Manaea. Jose Fermin, who hit leadoff last night with Gorman on the bench, is expected to sit.
- Nelson Velazquez has missed consecutive games for the Royals amid a lengthy run of rough form at the plate. He’s 2 for his last 32. Adam Frazier served as the Royals’ DH on Monday, though there’s a chance Velazquez will be back in there tonight against Colin Rea.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- The pitching conversation should be an interesting one. We’ve got a couple of rookie aces at the top in Shota Imanaga ($10,300) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,100) facing the Padres and Marlins, respectively. Yamamoto’s matchup is significantly more favorable, especially with the hitter-friendly weather in Chicago. Imanaga has been close to perfect thus far for the Cubs, with a 26.5% strikeout rate, a 3% walk rate, and a tiny 0.78 ERA. His 3.03 SIERA is still excellent, but it’s not a 0.78 ERA. Regression will hit at some point, and the projected lineup for the Padres has a wildly-low strikeout rate vs. LHP this season (14.3%). I could be wrong, but I expect Yamamoto to be heavy chalk, while Imanaga may not garner much traction at all from an ownership perspective.
- Yamamoto has been as advertised for the Dodgers, with a stellar 30% K rate alongside a 2.83 SIERA. His 10.1% barrel rate allowed is really the only cause for concern if you take a look at his numbers, but the projected lineup for the Marlins (.295 wOBA, .148 ISO vs. RHP this season) is about as non-threatening as it gets offensively. Yamamoto is the very clear-cut SP1, and I don’t see much reason to dispute it.
- We’ve also got what appears to be a clear-cut SP2 in Bailey Ober at only $7,600 at home against Seattle. Ober has been underpriced on DraftKings for weeks. He’s historically a little above average when it comes to Ks, with a sub-4.00 career SIERA. The Mariners allegedly have some power in the lineup, but we haven’t seen it this season, as evidenced by the projected lineup’s .140 ISO vs. RHP. This lineup has also struck out a ton against RHP (28.7%), and they made Simeon Woods Richardson look like prime Max Scherzer just last night. Ober is projected for about 40% ownership, and it’s fair given his cheap salary and the upside potential in this matchup.
- Reynaldo Lopez ($9,700 vs. Boston), Seth Lugo ($7,200 vs. Milwaukee), and Kyle Harrison ($6,400 at Colorado) should be fairly popular plays too. Harrison gets the major park downgrade going into Coors, but hey, it’s the Rockies on the other side. The Justin Verlander / Luis Gil matchup in New York should be an interesting one, but both pitchers are obviously facing strong offenses.
- I’d expect the Giants to be semi-chalky going into Coors to face Dakota Hudson. Hudson’s 12.1% walk rate is nearly as high as his strikeout rate this season, but the one thing he does do well is keep the ball on the ground. I’m not enthralled by this Giants offense to begin with, and it doesn’t help that this projected lineup has a 51.1% ground-ball rate vs. RHP early in the season. Matt Chapman ($5,200), Michael Conforto ($5,100), Jung Hoo Lee ($4,800), and Thairo Estrada ($4,200) are the headliners here, but they won’t come cheap. I’m planning to be under the field on this team, though that could change if it looks like the field will agree with that take closer to lock.
- The Dodgers (vs. Edward Cabrera) and the Braves (vs. Kutter Crawford) are the only other offenses with implied run totals above 5. Both are facing respectable-enough pitchers, but it’s a talent thing. Cabrera has strikeouts and ground balls in his game, but his career walk rate (13.8%) is a potential disaster in this spot. I’d be thrilled to pay up for Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) or Mookie Betts ($6,400), but we live in a world of a salary cap. You’ll run into the same problem with the Braves, as 5 of the 9 bats in Atlanta’s projected lineup are up over $5,000.
- Imanaga has been close to unhittable, but that can’t continue forever. With the hitter-friendly winds in Chicago, I’m intrigued by the Padres as a stack that could fly under the radar. Imanaga has a pretty significant fly-ball lean thus far, so things could go sideways for him here against a high-contact lineup that’ll be putting the ball in play. Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado are your daily headliners in any San Diego stack, but Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim have flashed impressive power against LHP early in the season. I don’t hate the idea of getting to Jake Cronenworth or Luis Arraez in lefty-lefty spots as a part of the stack either. San Diego’s 4.21 implied run total is decent enough relative to the rest of the slate too.
- A few cheap one-off hitters to consider are Tyler Black ($2,900), Hunter Renfroe ($2,600), Kyle Isbel ($2,800), Alec Burleson ($2,900), Michael Massey ($3,300), Dansby Swanson ($3,800), Lars Nootbaar ($3,800), and Vaughn Grissom ($2,900).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, be sure to catch our GrindersLive and Crunch Time Show Block, beginning at 5:00 PM ET. Good luck in your contests tonight!
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