MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, May 30th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
It is somehow almost June already. The 2024 MLB campaign is just over two months old, yet it still feels like we’re waiting for offenses around the league to heat up. We’ve got just 4 games on the main slate on Thursday night, and there isn’t a single team with an implied team total of at least 5 runs. In fact, just two teams have a total of over 4 runs, which could lead to some pretty obvious chalk on the hitting side.
The ways to get different are generally more obvious on small slates. We’ve got quite a few quality pitchers taking the mound, and we’re going to have to take some uncomfortable stands with stacks, as a result. Here’s how I’ll be approaching Thursday’s 4-gamer on DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, May 30th
CHALK STACKS
Braves vs. Trevor Williams
Yankees at Patrick Sandoval
The two chalky offenses also happen to be two of the more talented groups in baseball. The Braves lost Ronald Acuna to a season-ending injury over the weekend, and this offense hasn’t been as mercilessly dominant as it was a season ago. Still, the talent is there, and it’s likely just a matter of time until they really hit their stride. Atlanta’s 4.96 implied run total at home against Trevor Williams is the highest on the board.
We’ve been picking on Williams for years, but he’s been weirdly effective this season for the Nationals. The right-hander has pitched to a career-best 2.29 ERA, and his 3.88 SIERA suggests he hasn’t been completely fraudulent. His 5.6% barrel rate allowed this year is about half as high as it was last season (10.2%), while he’s been about average in terms of strikeouts (21.4%) and walks (7%).
Williams is relying less on his fastball than he has in previous seasons, while he’s almost completely abandoned his curveball. He’s instead throwing his slider about 33% of the time, which is easily the highest percentage of his career. His ground-ball rate of around 46% is up considerably from where it was in each of the last 2 seasons. Perhaps the tweak in pitch mix helps to explain his early-season success, but the underlying numbers don’t suggest he’s suddenly transformed into an ace. Williams is probably an average pitcher, and being average makes him below average on this particular slate.
Williams hasn’t been particularly dominant against hitters of either handedness over the years, but he’s only struck out 14.9% of lefties in his career. That number is up to 21.1% this season, but we’re still dealing with a fairly small sample. I’d still start any Atlanta stacks with the power lefties – Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies. Michael Harris has been leading off against RHP since Acuna went down, while Jarred Kelenic is the only cheap lefty in the Braves’ projected order.
It’s hard to explain what’s gotten into Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley this season. Ozuna is suddenly the best right-handed hitter on earth, while Riley seems to have had his power sapped by the Monstars. I’m still willing to bank on Riley’s long-term talent, which makes him a core piece in stacks even without the platoon edge vs. Williams. Sean Murphy ($3,500 DK, $3,100 FD) is the most obviously underpriced hitter in this lineup right now, while you can round things out with Adam Duvall and Orlando Arcia closer to the bottom of the order. The Braves’ Opto% is similar to their projected stack ownership on both DK and FD.
The Yankees’ bats have gone quiet through the first 2 games of their series in Anaheim, and tonight they’ll face boom-or-bust lefty Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval occasionally looks like an ace, while he’ll look like the worst pitcher in the league in his other starts. A quick look at his game logs tells the story.
Sandoval is a decent mix of strikeouts and ground balls when he’s right, though he’s been about average (23.1% Ks, 46% ground balls) this season. When he’s off his game, he’s walking everybody. His walk rate this season is pushing 10%, while he was over 11% a season ago. Control issues can be death against a patient and deep Yankees lineup. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, and Alex Verdugo all have double-digit walk rates vs. LHP on the season.
One thing Sandoval has done fairly well over the years is limit power. He’s been taken deep 6 times through 11 games this season, but he hasn’t served up more than 12 dingers in any previous season. This is a tiny slate though, so we can’t get too picky. Judge (37.5%), Giancarlo Stanton (13.3%), and Soto (17%) all have gaudy barrel rates against LHP this season, while Jose Trevino (9.1%) has quietly fared pretty well too.
Sandoval’s strikeout and ground-ball rates have predictably been much better against lefties this season, so Judge, Stanton, Torres, and Volpe will be the headliners in most Yankee stacks. I’m still happy to get to Soto wherever I can in the lefty-lefty matchup, especially if his projected ownership is slightly lower than that of a few of his coworkers.
The Yankees are pulling around 20% projected stack ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which is right in line with the Braves. However, the Yanks’ optimal rates are significantly higher. Their Opto% is pushing 32% on DraftKings, while they’re up in the 37% range over on FanDuel.
PIVOT STACK
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