MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/12/2022
Now that the NBA regular season has concluded, I’m going to be doing a daily MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
We have one big rain spot to worry about tonight with the Dodgers/Twins game seeing 34%-90% precipitation between 7PM and 10PM. This game is supposed to start at 7:40 so they may either decide to postpone it early or try to start the game and see what the rain does later with a possible long delay or even a mid-game suspension. Both teams have great offenses and bats we’d usually want to target against mediocre pitching but with the wind blowing in plus the rain uncertainty I will probably just avoid this game especially since we have eight other games to choose from with no rain concerns.
Moving on to wind there will be a slight breeze (~8 mph) blowing out in Yankee stadium with higher winds blowing out in the MIA/LAA, KCC/STL, and SD/SF games (~20 mph for each). MIL/BAL and WSH/ATL will have slight breezes blowing in (~4-10 mph) along with LAD/MIN (if the rain holds off and it plays) while COL/TEX & HOU/ARI are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TOR/NYY are +19.9% while total runs for MIL/BAL are +10.5%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
We’re still waiting on confirmation for the Orioles starter between Spenser Watkins and Alexander Wells as the Brewers lineup should have a few different guys depending on if they’re facing the righty or lefty. If the lefty Wells ends up starting looks for Tyrone Taylor, Keston Hiura, and Victor Caratini to likely start.
UPDATE: Watkins will start for BAL
One team standing out today is the Rangers with a team total over 5.5 runs currently. Averaging 6.75 runs per game this season Texas is looking like a stack consideration every night they play especially at home against a mediocre righty in Chad Kuhl tonight. On FanDuel their entire projected lineup is $3,500 or cheaper with seven hitters at $3k or less so they are an extremely affordable stack with Brad Miller, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia my favorite guys to target. DraftKings has most of them priced up over $4k except for Brad Miller at just $3,400 making him a nice value play hitting leadoff.
There is an inordinate amount of lefty pitchers going today with over half of the starters being southpaws and most of the top offenses are facing mediocre ones. Ranking those offenses to stack I would go TOR—>STL—>NYY—>ATL—>MIN (careful of rain)—>HOU—>LAA—>COL. The Dodgers have one of the highest team totals right now but the combination of their high salaries and the uncertainty of the rain in that game makes me want to avoid them today with so many other great offenses to target.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel the previously mentioned Brad Miller is coming in as the top p/$ hitter which makes sense hitting leadoff for the top projected offense at just $2,700. Corey Seager ($3,200) and Adolis Garcia ($2,900) are my other favorite Rangers to target at great prices. With the Braves projected as a top offense tonight I think going back to Marcell Ozuna ($2,900) is a great way to get a cheap piece of this offense as well as Adam Duvall ($2,900). If Jeremy Pena gets to bat in the top half of the order for Houston he’ll be one of my favorite value plays at $2,300 along with Jo Adell at the same price. Other bats I’m liking for the price include Josh Donaldson ($3,200), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,000), Nelson Cruz ($3,100), Josh Bell ($2,800), Bobby Witt ($2,500), and Connor Joe ($2,800).
Looking at DraftKings now we see Brad Miller ($3,400) as a great p/$ play too so look for him to be very popular on both sites along with Jeremy Pena who is almost minimum price at $2,200 already with two games with three hits so far including a homer and two doubles. Bobby Witt power and speed make him a must-play for me at $2,300 as he can always swipe a couple bags to pay off that salary and is way too cheap for what he can do at the plate too. Connor Joe will likely hit leadoff against the lefty Perez and for $3,100 he’s too cheap for someone hitting over .300 with a couple homers already and stolen base potential. Other nice p/$ bats on DK include Trey Mancini ($2,900), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,700), Andrew Benintendi ($3,600), and Randal Grichuk ($3,000).
My favorite pitchers today are Luis Garcia, Yu Darvish, Patrick Sandoval, Alex Cobb, and Dakota Hudson (Hudson only on DK).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn