MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/25/2022
Today we have a 7-game main slate on DK and a 5-game main slate on FD and no rain to worry about anywhere!
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat, and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HRs and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Rain won’t be a factor in any of the seven games today and even the wind shouldn’t affect much. COL/PHI has ~10mph winds blowing out to left, CLE/LAA has ~6mph winds blowing out to right, and NYM/STL has 10mph winds going left to right. In that CLE/LAA game we’re looking at temps in the low 80s / high 70s so the ball should travel farther which is making me like CLE bats tonight (not a fan of LAA against Bieber). SF/MIL, BOS/TOR, HOU/TEX, and LAD/ARI are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for NYM/STL are -20.4% while total runs for COL/PHI are +4.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
For the two games that are only on DK’s main slate Mike Yastrzemski is on the Covid IL so Joc Pederson will hit lead-off but all the Giants bats are going to be hard to trust against Corbin Burnes. The Brewers will start against the lefty Sam Long but it’ll be a bullpen game for SF which doesn’t make any MIL guys must-plays for me although Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe are both very cheap under $3,500. Philly got blanked last night but this is a nice bounce-back spot for them against Kyle Freeland who pitched well in this same matchup about a week ago but he still only had 3 K’s that game and has allowed 12 ER in three starts this season. Phillies bats are expensive which should lower their ownership and makes them a nice GPP stack today on DK while the Rockies are also priced a bit too high for me to use with Charlie Blackmon the only one I’d consider in cash for $4,500 coming off a 4-hit game.
Moving to the five games on both sites’ main slate we have some big time aces pitching today so I will likely avoid the offenses for LAA against Bieber, ARI against Buehler, STL against Scherzer, and both BOS and TOR aren’t looking too appealing either facing Berrios and Eovaldi respectively. This leaves offenses I’m targeting down to CLE, LAD, HOU, and NYM with TEX in a weird spot where I like their salaries but Framber Valdez is a solid pitcher and I think we can find higher-upside plays on those other four teams.
My favorite stack for the price is going to be CLE as their prices took a dip after an ugly three games against the Yankees. Steven Kwan left yesterday with right hamstring tightness so we could see him out of the lineup while Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes and Josh Naylor are a trio I will be targeting on both sites with the wind blowing out in hot weather against the mediocre Lorenzen. The Dodgers are my next favorite stack against Merrill Kelly which doesn’t feel great as Kelly has allowed just 1 ER in three starts this season but LAD is just too good of an offense to ignore on a small slate. Looking at the Batter vs. Pitcher grid for today we see a lot of Dodgers with excellent history against Kelly especially Max Muncy (8-for-18), Justin Turner (7-for-15), Will Smith (6-for-11), Cody Bellinger (5-for-14), and Mookie Betts (4-for-12). The Mets are priced up a bit and Mikolas has been solid in his last couple of starts so I likely won’t target any of them in cash games but they always make for a high upside and low owned GPP stack while the Astros against Dane Dunning have to be considered as a top stack today with Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez another trio I’m looking to use on both sites.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel Michael Brantley and Franmil Reyes are standing out as top value plays with both at $2,600 in great hitting conditions and fine matchups and together are a combined 12-for-23 with 3 HR’s over their last three games. Yordan Alvarez is also looking way too cheap at $3,500 along with Alex Bregman at $3,400 while Chas McCormick at leadoff and is a fine value play at $2,200 to complete the HOU stack. Along with Reyes I also love Josh Naylor for just $2,500 who should hit 4th or 5th and is a great price for a guy hitting .414 on the year with the platoon advantage in great hitting weather. For the Dodgers it should be easy to fit Mookie Betts and/or Freddie Freeman while Max Muncy ($3,200) and Justin Turner ($3,100) have excellent prices. Other FanDuel value guys I’m considering include Yulieski Gurriel ($2,500), Kyle Tucker ($2,900), Robinson Cano ($2,500), and Nick Solak ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings now Brantley and Reyes remain top plays for me with both under $3,800 while Alvarez and Bregman are both way more expensive than FD and aren’t as enticing to me. Josh Naylor is the same price as he is on FD at $2,500 which is relatively much cheaper the way DK prices guys so he is my top value play. The Dodgers are also priced up but Mookie Betts ($4,900) and Justin Turner ($4,200) are still at prices that make them pretty easy to fit in cash games while Cody Bellinger for $3,200 is my 2nd favorite value play after Naylor. Other DK value bats to consider are Andrew McCutchen ($3,300), Hunter Renfroe ($3,400), Adolis Garcia ($3,400), Chas McCormick ($2,600), Alex Verdugo ($3,300), and Jackie Bradley ($2,100).
DraftKings has some interesting prices on pitchers especially Jose Berrios for just $5,500 who will likely be many peoples’ SP2 today while Corbin Burnes ($10,200) is my top overall pitcher on DK. For FanDuel I’m giving the slight edge to Max Scherzer over Bieber as the top option while Berrios and Eovaldi are both solid GPP plays around $8k each.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn